英语
双语
汉语

为什么亿万富翁会坚持开采一个可能要赔钱的矿呢?

why would a billionaire persist with a mine that will probably lose money?
为什么亿万富翁会坚持开采一个可能要赔钱的矿呢?
1002字
2019-06-12 13:57
103阅读
为什么亿万富翁会坚持开采一个可能要赔钱的矿呢?

By mid-June, if everything goes as expected, Adani Australia will receive the final environmental approvals for its proposed Carmichael coal mine and rail line development.

如果一切不出所料的话,到6月中旬,阿达尼澳大利亚公司Carmichael煤矿和铁路线开发计划将获得最终的环保审批。

Newspaper reports based on briefings from Adani suggest that, once the approvals are in place, the company could begin digging “within days”.

根据阿达尼简报的新闻报导称, 该公司一旦获得环保审批,就可能“在几天内”开始挖矿。

On Friday the Queensland government approved Adani’s plan to protect a rare bird, apparently leaving it with just final regulatory hurdle: approval for its plan to manage groundwater.

周五,昆士兰州政府批准了阿达尼保护一种稀有鸟类的计划,这显然给政府留下了最终的监管障碍:即批准其地下水管理计划。

Its billboards in Brisbane read: “We can start tomorrow if we get the nod today”.

该公司在其布里斯班的广告牌上写道:“如果我们今天获得批准,明天就能开工。”

But several big obstacles remain. Even after governments are out of the way, it will have to deal with markets and companies that aren’t keen on the project.

但是,仍然有几个大障碍摆在该公司面前。即使在政府退出之后,该公司也将不得不与那些对其项目不感兴趣的市场和公司打交道。

Obstacles aplenty

五花八门的障碍

First up, there’s the problem of access to Aurizon’s rail line. Adani originally planned to build its own 388km railway from the Galilee Basin to its coal terminal at Abbot Point.

首先,我们先来关注Aurizon铁路线的通行问题。阿达尼最初计划建造一条特有的388公里铁路连接加利利盆地和艾博特角港。

However, in the scaled-down version of the project announced last year, Adani plans to build only 200km of track, before connecting to the existing Goonyella line owned by the rail freight company Aurizon.

然而,在去年宣布的缩小版项目中,阿达尼计划只修建200公里的铁轨,然后将该铁轨与铁路货运公司Aurizon现有的Goonyella铁路线连接起来。

That requires an agreement of access pricing and conditions. Aurizon is legally obliged to negotiate with Adani, but has shown itself to be in no hurry to reach a deal.

这就需要一项准入价格和条件的协议。Aurizon在法律上有义务与阿达尼谈判,但已经表明自己并不急于达成协议

Then there’s insurance. Faced with rejection by every major bank in the world, Adani announced it would fund the project from its own resources. But now insurers, including nearly all the big European firms and Australia’s own QBE, are saying the same sort of thing as the financiers.

然后还有保险。面对世界各大银行的拒绝,阿达尼宣布将用自己的资源为该项目提供资金。但是现在,包括几乎所有的欧洲大公司和澳大利亚自家QBE的保险公司,都和融资方说着同样的话

qqbWithout insurance the project can’t proceed, and the pool of potential insurers is shrinking all the time.

没有保险,这个项目就无法进行,潜在的保险公司也是一直在减少。

Not particularly financial

不是特别懂财政

2019-12-06-12-53-14-5d00853ac3f1d.jpg

Adani Group founder Gautam Adani. Wikimedia, CC BY

阿达尼集团创始人高塔姆·阿达尼。维基媒体,抄送

But the most fundamental problem may lie within the Adani group itself. The US$2 billion required from the project will ultimately come, in large measure, from chairman Gautam Adani’s own pocket.

但最基本的问题可能出自阿达尼集团内部。该项目所需的20亿美元最终将在很大程度上需要董事长高塔姆·阿达尼自掏腰包。

With an estimated wealth of $7 billion, he can certainly afford to pay if he chooses to. But it would represent a huge bet on the long-term future of coal-fired electricity, at very bad odds.

据估计,他所拥有的财富高达70亿美元,如果他愿意,他肯定能负担得起,但这将是对燃煤电力长期前景的巨大押注,赔本率非常低。

In my analysis of the original Carmichael mine proposal in 2017 I concluded that the profit from operating the coal mine would be around A$15 per tonne.

在我对2017年卡迈克尔煤矿最初提议做过的分析中,我得出的结论是,运营这家煤矿的利润将在每吨15澳元左右

A recent analysis of the revised project by David Fickling for Bloomberg yielded a marginally more favorable estimate of US$16 per tonne, or US$160 million a year for the initial output of 10 million tonnes a year.

彭博社(Bloomberg)的戴维•菲克林(David Fickling)最近对修订后的项目进行一项分析,得出了略好一些的估计,即每吨16美元,或每年1.6亿美元,初步年产量为1000万吨。

That’s a small return on A$2 billion, before considering overheads and depreciation.

考虑到日常开支和折旧问题,这对20亿澳元来说是一个很小的回报。

It’d need a long life…

该矿需要很长的寿命....

Such an investment could only be profitable on the basis of a mine with a long life and substantial potential for future expansion. How likely is that? When the start of construction was re-announced last November, it was suggested the coal might be shipped by 2021. With six months’ delay, and the insurance problem noted already, 2022 seems like the earliest possible date.

这种投资只有投在寿命长和未来有很大发展潜力的矿井上才能盈利。但这种可能性有多大呢?去年11月,当重新宣布开工建设时,有人曾暗示煤炭可能要在2021年之前装船。由于推迟了6个月,而且保险问题已经引起了注意,因此2022年似乎是最早的可能日期了。

But by that time, the current construction pipeline for coal-fired plants in India will have been worked through, and very few new ones will be being commissioned. A mere 8 gigawatts of new coal-fired power was commissioned in 2017-18, partly offset by 3.6GW of coal-fired power stations that closed down.

但到那个时候,印度目前的燃煤电厂建设管道将会完工,很少有新的管道会投入使用。2017年至2018年,中国新增燃煤发电装机容量仅为80吉瓦,部分已用关闭的36吉瓦燃煤电厂进行抵消。

The Indian government has stated that no new coal plants will be needed after 2022, or 2027 at the latest.

印度政府表示,2022年或最迟2027年之后,印度将不再需要新建燃煤电厂。

…which it might not get

....可能等不到那时候

In these circumstances, newly opened coal mines will be able to sell coal only if they can displace existing suppliers. This suggests prices will have to ensure further closures of existing mines. Such a fall would erode or eliminate Adani’s already thin margins.

在这种情况下,新开煤矿只有在能够取代现有供应商的情况下才能销售煤炭。这表明,价格将不得不降至足以保证现有煤矿能被进一步关闭的水平。这样的下跌速度将侵蚀或消除阿达尼本已微薄的利润。

By 2030, with the project still in its relatively early stages, most developed countries will have stopped using coal-fired power. The others will be moving fast in that direction. So far under President Trump, the United States has closed 50 coal-fired power stations, and will almost certainly never build another.

在2030年,由于该项目仍处于比较早期的阶段,大多数发达国家将停止使用燃煤发电。其他国家将朝着这个方向快速前进。到目前为止,在特朗普总统的领导下,美国已经关闭了50座燃煤电厂,几乎可以肯定,美国将永远不会再新建一座燃煤电厂了。

The only glimmer of hope for coal has been in less developed countries in Asia. But over the course of this year, even these hopes have dimmed. Major banks in Japan and Singapore have withdrawn from funding new coal projects, following the lead of the global banks based in Europe and the US.

煤炭的唯一一线希望是在亚洲欠发达的国家。但今年以来,就连这点希望也变得渺茫了。继欧洲和美国的全球银行之后,日本和新加坡的大银行早已不再为新煤炭项目提供资金。

That leaves South Korea and China as potential sources of funding. Korea is already phasing out coal-fired power domestically and its banks are being pressured to divest globally. The option of relying solely on China is problematic to say the least.

这就让韩国和中国成为潜在的资金来源。韩国已经在国内逐步淘汰了燃煤发电,其银行也面临着在全球撤资的压力。至少可以说,完全依赖中国的选择是有问题的。

To sum up, unless current trends change dramatically, the economic life of the Carmichael mine is unlikely to be more than a decade – nowhere near enough to recover a A$2 billion investment.

总而言之,除非当前的趋势发生巨大变化,否则卡迈克尔矿的经济寿命不太可能超过10年——还远不足以收回20亿澳元的投资呢。

Explaining Adani

解释阿达尼

So what could be going on? Perhaps Gautam Adani is willing to lose a large share of his wealth simply to show he can’t be pushed around. Alternatively, as on numerous previous occasions, his promises of an imminent start to work may prove to be baseless.

然后会发生什么?或许,高塔姆•阿达尼愿意损失一大笔财富,只是为了表明他不愿意受人摆布。或者,就像之前的许多场合一样,他对于立即开始工作做出的承诺可能被证明是毫无根据的。

The third, and most worrying, possibility is that the political pressure to deliver the promised Adani jobs will lead to a large infusion of public money, all of which will be lost.

第三个也是最令人担忧的可能性,即阿达尼兑现工作承诺的政治压力将导致大量公共资金的注入,而这些资金将会全部流失。

The A$900 million Adani sought from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility in 2017 would be enough to keep the project going for a couple of years, without the need for Mr Adani to risk his own money. It now appears that a similar sum might be sought from the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation.

2017年,阿达尼向澳大利亚北部基础设施项目(Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility)寻求的9亿澳元资金将足以让该项目持续几年,而不需要阿达尼冒险动用自己的资金。但现在看来,他可能会向出口金融和保险公司征求一笔类似的款项

All this is speculation. Assuming the approvals come through by the Queensland premier’s self-imposed deadline of June 13, we will find out soon enough whether something happens, or whether something else will stay in the way.

所有这些都是猜测。如果审批能在昆士兰州州长自己设定的6月13日截止日期之前通过,那么我们很快就会知道是否会有事情发生,或者是否会有其他事情阻碍审批。

3 +1
举报
0 条评论
评论不能为空

H107享受安静时光的内容