第四季增长预测会达到疫情前的增长率
Growth in Q4 forecast to hit pre-virus rate
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2021-01-16 17:27
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火星译客

Nation likely to be only major economy to have achieved positive results in 2020

国家有可能成为2020年取得积极成果的唯一主要经济体

China's economic growth is expected to equal pre-COVID-19 levels in the last quarter of 2020, and Beijing will ramp up efforts to help businesses still in distress and promote a more balanced recovery, experts said on Friday.

专家们周五表示,中国经济增长预计将在2020年第四季度达到新冠肺炎前的水平,北京方面将加大力度,帮助仍处于困境中的企业,促进更均衡的复苏。

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The Chinese economy will likely soon be confirmed as the world's only major economy to have achieved positive growth during COVID-ravaged 2020, as the nation is scheduled to unveil GDP and other key economic data for the full year and the fourth quarter on Monday.

中国经济很可能很快就会被确认为世界上唯一在2020年遭受重创的新冠肺炎期间实现正增长的主要经济体,因为中国计划在周一公布全年和第四季度的国内生产总值(GDP)和其他关键经济数据。

Experts expected the economy to grow by more than 2 percent in 2020 on the back of a rally in investment and strong exports, with full-year GDP exceeding 100 trillion yuan ($15.45 trillion) for the first time. Fourth-quarter economic growth may be about 6 percent, the level seen in the last quarter of 2019, prior to the nationwide COVID-19 outbreak.

专家们预计,在投资和出口强劲增长的背景下,2020年中国经济将增长2%以上,全年GDP首次超过100万亿元人民币(合15.45万亿美元)。第四季度经济增长率可能在6%左右,达到2019年第四季度新冠肺炎爆发前的水平。

Liu Yuanchun, vice-president of the Renmin University of China, said the country's achievement in combating the pandemic and promoting economic recovery has demonstrated the country's institutional advantage and economic resilience, laying a good foundation for embarking on the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25).

中国人民大学副校长刘元春说,中国在抗击大流行和促进经济复苏方面取得的成就显示了中国的体制优势和经济弹性,为实施“第十四个五年计划”(2021-25)奠定了良好的基础。

But a GDP growth figure reaching pre-COVID-19 levels does not point to a full economic recovery, experts said, as hard-hit sectors continue to feel pressure, especially small manufacturers and services providers.

但专家表示,达到新冠肺炎前水平的gdp增长数据并不意味着经济将全面复苏,因为受重创的行业仍在承受压力,特别是小型制造商和服务提供商。

"It is too early to conclude that this is a full recovery," said Iris Pang, chief China economist at Dutch bank ING.

荷兰国际集团(ING)首席中国经济学家彭(Iris Pang)表示:“现在得出这是一个全面复苏的结论还为时过早。”

External demand has not fully recovered and could restrict China's industrial production, especially for smaller manufacturers, Pang said, adding that industries linked to international travel are still in a difficult situation.

外部需求尚未完全恢复,可能会限制中国的工业生产,特别是小型制造商,彭补充说,与国际旅游相关的行业仍处于困境中。

December's official manufacturing purchasing managers index indicated that small manufacturers saw a contraction in activity, though the overall manufacturing sector continued to expand, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

中国国家统计局(NBS)的数据显示,12月份的官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)显示,小型制造商的活动有所收缩,尽管整体制造业仍在扩张。

Looking at 2021, growth figures are expected to rebound strongly from a year earlier thanks to a low comparative base for 2020, but the underlying improvement momentum may be subject to uncertainties and could leave some small businesses and employment situations remaining under pressure, experts said.

专家们表示,展望2021年,由于2020年的比较基数较低,预计增长数据将较上年强劲反弹,但潜在的改善势头可能会受到不确定性的影响,可能会给一些小企业和就业形势带来压力。

Chen Dong, senior Asia economist at Pictet Wealth Management, said December's slowdown in long-term corporate credit growth implied that property investment may lose some momentum in the first quarter of 2021, while the peak of export growth may have passed.

皮克泰财富管理公司高级亚洲经济学家陈东表示,12月份企业长期信贷增长放缓意味着,2021年第一季度房地产投资可能会失去一些动力,而出口增长的峰值可能已经过去。

Recent local resurgences of COVID-19 cases have added another layer of uncertainty, but this should be a minor factor as well-established procedures are in place to achieve quick containment, Chen said.

专家们表示,为了促进更平衡的复苏,并确保发展成果得到人民的广泛认同,预计北京将把稳定就业作为今年政策的重中之重,并出台更多帮助小企业的计划。

To promote a more balanced recovery and ensure development achievement is widely shared by the people, Beijing is expected to make stabilizing employment as the top policy priority this year and roll out more plans to help small businesses, experts said.

专家们表示,为了促进更平衡的复苏,并确保发展成果得到人民的广泛认同,预计北京将把稳定就业作为今年政策的重中之重,并出台更多帮助小企业的计划。

President Xi Jinping on Monday stressed the importance of following a people-centered philosophy. The development philosophy for building a modern socialist country is only correct when it insists that development should be for the people, rely on the people and be shared by the people, Xi said.

周一,中国国家主席习近平强调遵循以人为本的理念的重要性。习说,建设社会主义现代化国家的发展理念只有坚持为人民、依靠人民、为人民共同发展,才是正确的。

Xi, who is also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, made the remark when addressing the opening of a study session at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, attended by provincial and ministerial-level officials.

中共中央总书记、中央军委主席习在省部级官员参加的中共中央党校学习会议开幕式上发表讲话。

"The government is expected to continue placing stabilizing employment in first place this year," said Yao Jingyuan, former chief economist at the NBS and a researcher for the Counselors' Office of the State Council.

“预计政府今年将继续把稳定就业放在首位,”国家统计局前首席经济学家、国务院参赞办公室研究员姚景远表示。

China faces rising unemployment pressure this year-not only as the number of college graduates is expected to surpass 9 million in 2021, up more than 300,000 year-on-year-but because the number of college graduates who go abroad for further education will substantially drop due to the pandemic, Yao said.

姚说,中国今年面临越来越大的失业压力,这不仅是因为2021年大学毕业生人数预计将超过900万,同比增长30多万,还因为出国深造的大学毕业生人数将因这一流行病而大幅下降。

"To stabilize employment, the government must boost the strength of policies to safeguard the development of market entities, especially small and micro businesses," he said, calling on making those policies work more accurately as well.

他说:“为了稳定就业,政府必须加强政策力度,保障市场实体,特别是小型和微型企业的发展。”他呼吁让这些政策更准确地发挥作用。

Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBC International, said the country is expected to enrich its monetary policy tool kit of lending direct support to small businesses and step up reforms of its financial system to better match small businesses' financing needs this year.

工行国际(ICBC International)首席经济学家程石表示,预计中国将丰富其向小企业提供直接支持的货币政策工具包,并加强金融体系改革,以更好地满足小企业今年的融资需求。

With policy measures to address the unbalanced pattern of recovery and further revival of the consumer market, the Chinese economy is expected to achieve an 8.2 percent annual growth in 2021, said Wang Tao, chief China economist at global investment bank UBS.

全球投资银行瑞银(UBS)首席中国经济学家王涛表示,随着应对复苏和消费市场进一步复苏这种不平衡格局的政策措施,中国经济预计在2021年实现8.2%的年增长率。

This will mark a jump from an estimated 2.1 percent for the whole of 2020 and about 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Wang.

据王说,这将标志着从整个2020年的2.1%到2020年第四季度的6%的增长。

Ouyang Shijia contributed to this story.

欧阳世佳促成了这个故事。

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