今年经济增长的动力将会更加强劲
Impetus to growth will recover more this year
1222字
2021-01-14 21:26
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火星译客

By Liu Yuanchun, Liu Xiaoguang and Yan Yan | China Daily | Updated: 2021-01-04 09:49

作者:刘元春、刘晓光、严燕
中国日报|更新时间:2017-01-04 09:49

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The gradual waning of COVID-19 in China last year, the normalization of the country's unconventional fiscal and monetary policies, the adjustment of its development strategies, and the rise of new growth drivers will become the most essential forces deciding the nation's economic operations this year.

去年中国新冠肺炎疫情逐步消退,非常规财政货币政策常态化,发展战略调整,新动能崛起,将成为决定今年中国经济运行的最根本力量。

Owing to the low base effect and the rebound effect, China will maintain rapid growth this year. The country's real GDP growth rate for the full year will be significantly higher than that before the pandemic, and the growth may slow down quarter by quarter.

由于基数低和反弹效应,今年中国经济将保持快速增长。该国全年的实际国内生产总值增长率将大大高于疫情爆发前的增长率,而且增长率可能逐季放缓。

Currently, the relationship between supply and demand is still unbalanced but the rise of the demand side is speeding up. As national economic circulation remains basically smooth, China has started to build up internal growth drivers.

目前,供需关系仍然不平衡,但需求方的崛起正在加快。在国民经济流通基本平稳的情况下,中国经济增长的内生动力已经开始形成。

With companies restoring profitability, household disposable income achieving growth and fiscal income continuing to increase, the Chinese economy is turning from policy-driven growth to spontaneous growth, so this year will be crucial for restoring confidence and guiding market expectations.

随着企业恢复盈利能力,家庭可支配收入实现增长,财政收入持续增加,中国经济正从政策驱动型增长转向自发增长,因此今年对恢复信心和引导市场预期至关重要。

Thanks to the implementation of a suite of economic policies to cope with shocks of the pandemic, the speed of China's economic recovery is much faster than the simulation results under circumstances where such policies may not exist. Up till now, China's total industrial output and total investment have resumed growth year-on-year. It means that the internal impetus to the country's economic growth will recover more completely this year, compared with last year.

由于实施了一系列应对疫情冲击的经济政策,中国经济复苏的速度比可能不存在这些政策的情况下的模拟结果快得多。截至目前,中国工业总产值和总投资均恢复了同比增长。这意味着,与去年相比,今年中国经济增长的内生动力将更全面地恢复。

The positive effects of policies announced last year ensured that the recovery of demand accelerated in the fourth quarter of last year and will speed up further in the first quarter of this year. However, as China will gradually withdraw its unconventional policies, its growth will slow down in the second half of this year.

去年公布的政策的积极效应,确保了去年四季度需求复苏加速,今年一季度将进一步加快。然而,随着中国逐步退出非常规政策,今年下半年中国经济增长将放缓。

During the first three quarters of last year, such policies increased the real GDP growth rate by 3.5 percentage points, the real consumption growth rate by 1.9 percentage points, and the actual investment growth rate by 6 to 20 percentage points. As time passes, the policies are taking effect gradually, and their impact on output and investment is remarkably greater than that on consumption.

前三季度,实际GDP增速提高3.5个百分点,实际消费增速提高1.9个百分点,实际投资增速提高6 - 20个百分点。随着时间的推移,政策逐渐生效,对产出和投资的影响明显大于对消费的影响。

Compared with the policies launched by European countries and the United States that are focused on securing residents' income and consumption expenditure, China's macroeconomic policies put greater emphasis on stabilizing business and production, which will therefore achieve the goal of safeguarding employment and residents' income and promoting consumption.

与欧美国家以保障居民收入和消费支出为主的政策相比,中国的宏观经济政策更加注重稳定企业和生产,从而达到保障就业和居民收入,促进消费的目的。

If the transitions from supply-side recovery to demand-side recovery and from investment recovery to consumption recovery go smoothly, China may have entered an accelerating period of demand recovery in the fourth quarter of last year, which will likely continue in the first quarter of this year.

如果从供给面复苏到需求面复苏、从投资复苏到消费复苏的转变顺利进行,中国可能在去年第四季度进入了需求复苏加速期,今年第一季度可能会继续。

China would do well to launch a 3 trillion yuan ($459.9 billion) plan to stimulate consumption and subsidize personal income, as a way to solve problems in the economy while underpinning people's livelihoods.

中国应该启动一个3万亿元(4599亿美元)的计划来刺激消费和补贴个人收入,作为一种解决经济问题的方式,同时支撑人民的生活。

In our opinion, the government should also launch a 3 trillion yuan infrastructure investment plan to strengthen infrastructure construction with focus on a new type of urbanization and the development of industrial and supply chains by issuing special-purpose bonds, which will leverage private-sector investment.

我们认为,政府还应该启动3万亿元的基础设施投资计划,加强基础设施建设,通过发行专项债券,推动新型城镇化和产业链、供应链发展,撬动民间投资。

We also suggest that the government should initiate a 3 trillion yuan plan to give targeted support to certain companies-mainly those that are severely affected by the pandemic and are relatively slow in terms of demand recovery-by cutting taxes, lowering fees and offering loans to them.

我们还建议政府启动一个3万亿元的计划,通过减税、降费和贷款等方式,对部分企业(主要是受疫情影响严重、需求恢复相对缓慢的企业)给予针对性支持。

According to our estimate, if the suite of expansionary policies take full effect, China's nominal GDP will increase by 7.1 trillion yuan year-on-year in 2020, and the nominal GDP growth rate will be 7.2 percentage points higher than the previous year.

我们估计,如果这一套扩张性政策全面生效,2020年中国名义GDP将比上年增加7.1万亿元,名义GDP增速比上年提高7.2个百分点。

During the same period, household disposable income will grow by 8.14 trillion yuan, which means disposable personal income per capita will increase by 5,814 yuan. Corporate disposable income will rise by 2.43 trillion yuan, not to mention that 75.32 million jobs will be secured.

居民可支配收入增长8.14万亿元,人均可支配收入增长5814元。新增企业可支配收入2.43万亿元,实现就业7532万人。

Currently, both output and investment have rebounded strongly but consumption is recovering at a much slower pace. It shows that there is still room for the suite of policies to achieve further results.

目前,产出和投资都出现了强劲反弹,但消费的复苏速度要慢得多。这表明,这套政策仍有取得进一步成果的空间。

However, policy support for economic rebound will diminish, as China will gradually withdraw various unconventional bailout policies this year. How to select the time, the pace, the route, and the combination of policy instruments of withdrawal will become the core of macroeconomic policy decisions and one of the key factors affecting the trend of economic recovery in the country.

然而,由于中国今年将逐步退出各种非常规救助政策,对经济反弹的政策支持将减弱。如何选择退出的时间、节奏、路径和政策工具组合,将成为宏观经济决策的核心,也是影响该国经济复苏趋势的关键因素之一。

2021 will be the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25). We believe that the new dual-circulation development pattern, which takes the domestic market as the mainstay and allows the domestic and foreign markets to boost one another, has decided that strategic transformation is the core theme of economic operations this year.

“2021年”是“十五”计划的开局之年。我们认为,以国内市场为主体、国内外市场相互促进的双流通发展新格局,决定了战略转型是今年经济运行的核心主题。

Based on its powerful domestic market, China will connect various links in the economy, including production, allocation, circulation and consumption, break up the monopoly or oligopoly in certain industries, and bring local protection to an end, to establish a virtuous circle of the national economy. The country will also optimize the structure of supply, enhance the quality of supply, and increase the adaptability of the supply system to domestic demand.

中国将依托强大的国内市场,打通生产、配置、流通、消费等经济各环节,打破某些行业的垄断或寡头垄断,终结地方保护,建立国民经济的良性循环。优化供给结构,提高供给质量,增强供给体系对国内需求的适应性。

After its economy recovers fully from the impact of COVID-19, China must accelerate the launch of a new round of reform and opening-up, with the aim of building high-standard market economic systems, to revitalize market entities and consolidate the stabilization of total factor productivity, a measure of economic efficiency.

在经济完全从COVID-19冲击中复苏后,中国必须加快启动新一轮改革开放,建设高标准的市场经济体制,搞活市场主体活力,巩固稳定全要素生产率。

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China may achieve major breakthroughs in key technologies and key links of the economy. Meanwhile, the country will make strides in the area of digital economy. Therefore, deployment of technological innovation and industrial and supply chain safety will become the basic forces of expansion of demand this year.

“十五”期间,在关键技术和关键环节取得重大突破。与此同时,中国将在数字经济领域取得长足进步。因此,部署技术创新和产业供应链安全将成为今年扩大需求的基本力量。

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, both China's investment in high-tech industries and high-tech industry value added have maintained high growth. In the context of a new round of technological reforms and the rise of digital production, how to break through the bottlenecks of technological development in key areas has become a major test for the realization of smooth domestic circulation.

新冠肺炎疫情发生以来,中国高技术产业投资和高技术产业增加值保持高速增长。在新一轮技术改革和数字化生产兴起的背景下,如何突破关键领域的技术发展瓶颈,成为实现国内流通顺畅的重大考验。

The country will speed up efforts to reduce its reliance on imports of high-end equipment and critical parts or components in key industries.

中国将加快努力,减少对高端设备和关键行业关键零部件的进口依赖。

Under the dual-circulation development pattern, which goes hand in hand with regional coordinated development and a new type of urbanization, the central and western regions of China, where cities like Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan and Xi'an are located, may achieve rapid growth due to their market depth and innovation capabilities.

在与区域协调发展和新型城市化并驾齐驱的双循环发展模式下,成都,重庆,武汉和西安等城市所处的中西部地区可能会实现快速发展。凭借其市场深度和创新能力实现增长。

Liu Yuanchun is vice-president of the Renmin University of China. Liu Xiaoguang is an associate professor at the university's National Academy of Development and Strategy. Yan Yan is chairman of China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co Ltd.

刘元春是中国人民大学副校长。刘晓光,北京大学国家发展与战略研究院副教授。严燕是中国诚信国际信用评级有限公司董事长。

This article is an excerpt from China Macroeconomy Forum's analysis and forecast report on China's macroeconomy (2020-21).

本文摘自中国宏观经济论坛《中国宏观经济分析与预测报告》(2020-21)。

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