华盛顿要改变台湾的“战略歧义”激怒北京是不可能的
Washington unlikely to change Taiwan ‘strategic ambiguity’ to enrage Beijing
778字
2020-10-17 16:31
12阅读
火星译客

Washington unlikely to change Taiwan ‘strategic ambiguity' to enrage Beijing

华盛顿要改变台湾的“战略歧义”激怒北京是不可能的

By Yuan Zheng Source: Global Times Published: 2020/10/12 20:03:40

 作者:元正 来源:环球时报 发布:2020/10/12 20:03:40

7024bed9-4345-4021-94aa-1651cae87f2f.jpeg

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

插图:刘锐/GT

US national security adviser Robert O'Brien on Wednesday said that "there's also a lot of ambiguity about what the US would do in response to an attack by China on Taiwan," according to Reuters. O'Brien was responding to a question about what options the US would have if the Chinese mainland resorts to force to reunite the island of Taiwan

路透社报道,美国国家安全顾问罗伯特·奥布莱恩周三说道,“对于美国针对中国对台湾的攻击的回应,也存在诸多歧义。”关于如果中国大陆诉诸于强迫台湾岛重新联合,美国会怎么做的问题,奥布莱恩正做出回应。

What O'Brien referred to is a long-standing US policy of "strategic ambiguity" regarding the US military's support for the island.

奥布莱恩的回复是,鉴于美国军队对这座岛屿的支持,这是一个长期存在的美国“战略模糊”的政策。

Some media outlets and US political elite have recently hyped up the idea that Washington should shift away from being ambiguous to being clear and open about Taiwan. 

有些媒体和美国政治精英近期吹嘘的观点是,华盛顿应对台湾从起初的模糊转变为清楚且开放的态度。

As a matter of fact, it will be difficult for Washington to achieve this sort of shift. Since the 1996 Taiwan Straits crisis, many US political elites have discussed the subject. Some of them argue that the US needs to clarify its policy on the island of Taiwan. But no consensus has yet been reached on this matter of clarity in the US.

实际上,华盛顿很难实现这种转变。自1996年台湾海峡危机以来,许多美国政治精英就讨论过这个问题。他们有些认为,美国需要澄清在台湾岛的政策。但美国还没在这一件事上达成共识。

The US has been playing the island as a card as a tactic to deal with the Chinese mainland. If the US clearly states how to defend the island of Taiwan in case of an attack, it will restrain Washington's flexibility to cope with the Taiwan question. If the commitments are far from being "sufficient," both the island and some of US' allies will be disappointed. Washington will be labeled as being soft on China. Furthermore, if the US makes detailed and definite commitments, it will directly challenge its one-China principle. This will jeopardize China-US relations. The Chinese mainland will firmly protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity no matter what the costs. 

美国一直将这座岛屿当作棋子,作为处理中国大陆的计谋。如果美国清楚地表明,鉴于一次攻击要如何保卫台湾岛,这会阻止美国处理台湾事宜的灵活性。如果承诺无法“奏效”,两个岛屿和美国的一些精英会相当沮丧。华盛顿会被视为对中国软弱的标签。还有,如果美国做出了详细且确切的承诺,这会直接挑战了一个中国的原则。这将危及中美关系。无论要付出什么代价,中国大陆会坚决保护自己的领土完整。

The separatist forces in Taiwan are becoming increasingly rampant. The authorities of Taiwan regional leader Tsai Ing-wen have spared no effort to show its stance of anti-Chinese mainland sentiments. They applaud pro-US positions, hoping Washington will lend it a hand to finally achieve full secession. If the US clarifies its strategy, and makes dedicated commitments to defend the island, Taiwan separatists will be emboldened to officially pursue secession. This will put the US into an unfavorable condition, which the US is reluctant to see.

台湾的分裂主义势力逐步猖狂。台湾地区的当局领导人蔡英文不遗余力的展示自己的反大陆情绪的立场。他们欢呼亲美的定位,希望华盛顿会借它一臂之力最终实现完全脱离。如果美国澄清它的战略,为保卫这座岛屿做出了一心一意的承诺,台湾分裂主义者会支持官方地追求分裂。这将美国置于一个不受欢迎的条件中,这是美国不愿看到的。

In terms of the Chinese mainland, the Taiwan question concerns its core national interests. If the US crosses China's red-line over this question, Beijing would sever its diplomatic ties with the Washington. There is no doubt that Washington is clearly aware of the importance of the Chinese mainland. It will not take risks to break its ties with the Chinese mainland due to Taiwan, because the price is too high.

鉴于中国大陆,台湾事宜涉及了核心国家利益。如果美国在这问题上越过了警戒线,北京会切断与华盛顿的外交关系。毫无疑问,华盛顿清楚地明白中国大陆的重要性。因为代价太高,因此它不会冒险因台湾而打破与中国大陆的关系。

Therefore, shifting to "strategic clarity" will be disadvantageous to the US. Hence, it will be hard to achieve. In fact, Washington intends to maintain the status quo, and keeps playing the trick. This seems to be the most favorable US position. 

因此,转向“战略澄清”对美国而言是不利的。所以,很难实现。实际上,华盛顿打算维持自身的地位,继续耍阴谋诡计。这似乎是美国最有利的地位。

As the Chinese mainland's comprehensive national strength continues to rise, the US labels China as its top rival. This makes the island of Taiwan a decent card for the US to play in order to contain the Chinese mainland's development. Therefore, Washington will no doubt continue to manipulate the Taiwan question. 

随着中国大陆所有国家实力不断提高,美国将中国视为头号竞争对手。这让台湾岛成为美国为控制中国大陆发展的一个恰到好处的棋子。因此,毫无疑问,华盛顿继续操纵台湾事宜。

Recently, the Taiwan card has been played with increasing ferocity. US secretary of Health and Human Services Secretary and undersecretary of State visited the island successively. The US has reinforced its military cooperation and increased arms sales to the island too. The US seems to be attempting to make its relations with Taiwan more "official." However, in order to avoid provoking the Chinese mainland and for its own interests, it does not seek to officially establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

近期,台湾这个棋子变得来势汹汹。美国卫生与公众服务部部长兼副国务卿接连不断地访问了这个这座岛。美国也对这座岛加强了军事合作和增加军售。美国似乎试图要让自己与台湾的关系变得更加“官方”。然而。为避免挑衅中国大陆和自身利益,不会与台湾建立官方的外交关系。

The US general election is approaching. No matter who will win the coming presidential election, the US' Taiwan policy will maintain consistent.There will be no essential difference. Yet Republicans and Democrats have different focuses. The Democratic Party will be more cautious. It emphasizes the role of Taiwan as a "democracy paradigm" in "guiding" the development of Chinese mainland. Therefore, the Democratic Party may consider not to overly complicating the Taiwan Straits situation. 

美国大选迫近。无论谁获得接下来的大选,美国的对台政策将始终如一。没有本质上的区别。但是民主党和共和党有不同的关注点。民主党派会更加谨慎小心。在“引导”中国大陆的发展问题上,它强调了台湾作为一个“民主典范”的角色。因此。民主党会考虑不要过度复杂化台湾海峡事宜。

On the other hand, the Republican Party underlines practical interests, geopolitics, and containing the development of the Chinese mainland. There are some pro-Taiwan forces in Republican Party. Therefore, The Republican's practice seems to be more radical. 

另一方面。共和党强调了实际例子利益、地缘政治和遏制中国大陆的发展。共和党中存在一些亲台势力。因此,共和党的举动似乎更加激进。

The author is Deputy Director and senior fellow of the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

本文作者是中国社科院美国研究中心的副主任兼高级研究员。电邮:opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

0 条评论
评论不能为空