修昔底德陷阱的作者认为,美国被中国的崛起吓了一跳
Thucydides Trap author believes US has been taken aback by China’s rise
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2019-01-27 14:33
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Source:Global Times Published: 2018/12/16 21:48:40

资料来源:环球时报发布时间:2018/12/16 21:48:40

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Graham Allison

Graham Allison

Editor's Note:

编者注:

When history proves a war between Beijing and Washington is seemingly inevitable, what should we do? What is happening exactly between the two powers, which seem to be locked in a rivalry? What is US leaders' attitude toward the historical lessons of clashes between rising and established powers? Will the US learn to accept China getting strong eventually? Graham Allison (Allison), Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University, who coined the term "Thucydides Trap," shared his views on these issues in an exclusive interview with Global Times (GT) reporter Li Aixin.

当历史证明中美之间的战争似乎不可避免时,我们该怎么办?这两个大国之间到底发生了什么?美国领导人对新兴大国与老牌强国之间冲突的历史教训持何种态度?美国最终会学会接受中国变得强大吗?“修西得底斯陷阱”一词的创造者、哈佛大学的Douglas Dillon,政府学教授Graham Allison(Allison)在接受《环球时报》(GT)记者李爱新的独家采访时分享了他对这些问题的看法。

GT: A few days ago in Shanghai, you were quoted commenting on the Meng Wanzhou case that "things get worse before they get worse." Could you please elaborate on that?Allison: The first thing to understand about what's happening in the relationship between the US and China is that the overall relationship is driven by a Thucydidean dynamic, in which a rising China is impacting a ruling US, with all of the natural and predictable consequences of that. 

GT:几天前在上海,有人引用你对孟晚舟案件的评论“事情在变坏之前变得更糟”。你能详细说明一下吗?Allison:首先要了解的是,美中关系的发展是由修昔底德式的动态所驱动的。在这种动态中,一个崛起的中国正在影响一个统治美国的国家,所有这些都是自然的、可以预见的结果。

China is feeling bigger and stronger and feeling constrained or contained by America. America, which is accustomed to ruling, is feeling disrupted and disturbed by a rising China. If that's the case, this competition then spreads across the whole relationship. 

中国感到自己越来越强大,越来越受到美国的约束或牵制。习惯于统治的美国,正感到被崛起的中国扰乱和困扰。如果是这样的话,这种竞争就会扩散到全部的关系中。

Especially now that the American government has concluded that China is no longer a strategic partner, but a strategic adversary, it is pushing back against China in every space. It means to. It is trying to organize the ability to. So we see this in trade conflict, in constrained investments, in the competition for technology, in each arena. This is just another example of an underlying phenomenon. 

特别是现在美国政府已经认识到中国不再是战略伙伴,而是战略对手,它正在各个领域对中国进行反击。这意味着。它试图组织能力。所以我们在贸易冲突中看到了这一点,在有限的投资中,在技术竞争中,在每个领域。这只是另一个潜在现象的例子。

GT: Some observers say this unexpected episode could lead to a cold war between China and the US, what's your take on this?

GT:一些观察人士表示,这一意外事件可能会导致中美之间的冷战,你对此有何看法?

Allison: Again, to put it in context, US Vice President Pence gave a speech in October that said the US will now fight back against China in every dimension except bombs and bullets in a new cold war. According to Pence, it is a cold war that China has already been waging against the US for 25 years, except the Americans didn't notice. He said the Trump administration has awakened to the fact that the cold war is happening now, what's new is that Americans will be fighting back in every dimension except bombs and bullets. That's why he calls it cold war, Cold War 2.0. 

Allison:再一次的纸面文章,美国副总统Pence在10月份的一次演讲中说,在新的冷战中,除了用炸弹和子弹,美国现在将在各个方面对中国进行反击。Pence说,这是一场中国已经对美国发动了25年的冷战,只是美国人没有注意到。他说,特朗普政府已经意识到冷战正在发生的事实,新的是美国人将在各个方面进行反击,除了用炸弹和子弹。这就是为什么他称之为冷战,冷战2。0。

In that regard, Huawei, which has become China's champion for telecommunication and internet backbones, and the biggest supplier of telecom and internet equipment in the world, the bigger smartphone maker than Apple, is being very successful. 

在这方面,已经成为中国电信和互联网支柱企业、全球最大电信和互联网设备供应商、规模超过苹果(Apple)的智能手机制造商华为(Huawei)非常成功。

But Huawei has pretty tight relationships with Chinese intelligence, so the Americans say. If Huawei has installed the basic infrastructure of a nation's internet and telecommunication equipment, that makes it easier for China to spy on that system, that's what the Americans say. So the Americans are pushing back against Huawei. 

华为与中国情报部门的关系相当密切,所以美国人认为,如果华为已经安装了一个国家的互联网和电信设备的基础设施,这将使中国更容易监视这个系统,这是美国人说的。所以美国人正在反击华为。

You can see that in each one of the so-called Five Eyes, the five countries that share intelligence with each other - the US, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada - they are excluding Huawei from their major suppliers. In Britain this is especially painful right now, because Huawei is a big supplier of telecommunication in Britain. This is just another arena of the struggle. 

你可以看到,在所谓的“五眼”(Five Eyes)中,五个相互分享情报的国家——美国、英国、澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大——都将华为排除在主要供应商之外。在英国,这尤其令人痛苦,因为华为是英国电信的一个大供应商。这只是另一个斗争的舞台。

The move, the arrest of the CFO, surprises me. I don't know the details. I know what people have said, but it also looks to me to be more complicated than that. Until I know more of the facts, I can't say exactly about that. But I think that's another illustration of what happens. If you and I are strategic adversaries and we are fighting back in every dimension, then we should expect things like that.

首席财务官的被捕让我感到意外。我不知道细节。我知道人们都说了些什么,但在我看来,事情要比这复杂得多。在我了解更多事实之前,我不能明确地说那件事。但我认为这是另一个例子。如果你我是战略上的对手,我们在各个方面都在进行反击,那么我们应该预料到这样的事情。

GT: We are seeing a 90-day trade truce between Beijing and Washington. What do you think is the chance to reach an agreement before the deadline?Allison: Nobody knows. But my bet is that because the Chinese government very much wants to reach an agreement and is working very hard, and because President Trump wants to have a success, I think it's likely that there will be an agreement of some sort. Either the truce will be extended further or the tariffs will be adapted or adjusted, I would say more likely than not they would have a temporary victory. But my longer-term bet is, the issues will re-arise and will continue getting worse for the foreseeable future. 

GT:我们看到了北京和华盛顿之间为期90天的贸易休战。你认为在最后期限之前达成协议的机会有多大?Allison:没人知道。但我敢打赌,因为中国政府非常希望达成协议,而且正在非常努力地工作,因为特朗普总统希望取得成功,我认为很可能会达成某种协议。我认为,要么休战将进一步延长,要么调整或调整关税,他们更有可能取得暂时的胜利。但我的长期观点是,这些问题将再次出现,并在可预见的未来继续恶化。

Unless both the US and China find a way to a new strategic rationale for the relationship, a new form of great power relationship, so we were talking, some big new ideas, that things will get worse. 

除非美国和中国找到一种新的战略基础,一种新型的大国关系,所以我们说,一些新的想法,事情会变得更糟。

GT: As you mentioned in the book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap, Chinese president is familiar with Thucydides' trap and showed his willingness to learn from history, what are US leaders' attitude, especially President Trump, to the theory?

GT:正如你在《命中注定的战争:美国和中国能否逃脱修昔底德的陷阱》一书中提到的,中国国家主席对修昔底德的陷阱很熟悉,并且愿意从历史中学习,美国领导人,尤其是特朗普总统对这个理论的态度是什么?

Allison: I cannot say with any confidence about President Trump because I don't know him and have never talked to him about this. But I can say James Mattis, US secretary of defense, big student of Thucydides, is very knowledgeable about Thucydides Trap, very concerned about what the consequences could be. So, for sure, he understands it very well. Mike Pompeo, the secretary of State, again, I've talked to him many times about it. He understands it very well and is very serious about it. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joseph Dunford is very thoughtful about this. Matt Pottinger, who is the person at National Security Council responsible for the China account, understands it very well. I think the Trump administration is very well informed about the possibilities. 

Allison:我对特朗普总统没有任何信心,因为我不认识他,也从来没有和他谈过这件事。但我可以说,美国国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯,修昔底德的重要学生,对修昔底德陷阱非常了解,非常关心其后果。所以,可以肯定的是,他非常理解这一点。国务卿迈克·庞培,我已经和他谈过很多次了。他非常理解这一点,并且非常认真。参谋长联席会议主席约瑟夫·邓福德也为此深思熟虑过。美国国家安全委员会(National Security Council)负责中国账户的马特·波廷格(Matt Pottinger)对此非常理解。我认为特朗普政府非常了解这些可能性。

President Trump is not a great reader of history. But he does have survival instincts. I would hope that the basic ideas are sinking in. But I don't know that yet.  

特朗普总统不是一个伟大的历史读者。但他有求生的本能。我希望大家能理解基本思想。但我还不确认他知道不。

GT: Over the past two years, ties between China and the US have been like riding on a roller coaster. What caused so many twists and turns in so short a time? Is Thucydides' Trap the answer to it?

GT:过去两年,中美关系就像坐过山车。是什么在这么短的时间内造成了这么多的曲折?修昔底德的陷阱就是答案吗?

Allison: The roller coaster goes up and down, Thucydides' Trap is not addressing that part. The Thucydidean dynamic tells you the slope of the relationship - it gets worse before it gets worse. 

Allison: 过山车上上下下,修昔底德的陷阱并没有解决这个问题。修昔底德动态告诉你关系的斜率,它在越来越差。

The reality is, I am getting bigger and stronger and you are feeling me pressing against you. Then the perception and misperception by both of us exaggerates, and then the emotions and fear make things even worse. Then the political struggle within each of the rising power and the ruling power means that people who were struggling with each other for power inside have a tendency to exaggerate the other. All this makes a very wicked brew that can make things worse. 

现实是,我变得越来越大,越来越强壮,而你却感到我在压迫你。然后我们双方的感知和误解都被夸大了,然后情感和恐惧使事情变得更糟。那么,每一个崛起大国和统治大国之间的政治斗争就意味着,在争夺内部权力的斗争中,人们有夸大对方的倾向。所有这一切造就了一种非常邪恶的酝酿,它会让事情变得更糟。

At the same time, people look and say, "Wait, where this is happening." So occasionally you get a moment where people are thinking, this trade war will be a disaster for everybody, let's stop it. So the roller coaster goes up for a little bit. But then it comes back down a little bit. So the worrying (factor) in the Thucydidean dynamic is the slope of deterioration, not the perturbation of ups and downs as you go. 

与此同时,人们看着说,“等等,这是在哪里发生的。”所以偶尔你会看到人们在想,这场贸易战对每个人来说都是一场灾难,让我们停止它。所以过山车上升了一点。然后它又下降了一点。所以修昔底德动态中令人担忧的(因素)是恶化的坡度,而不是起伏的扰动。

GT: You said Pence described China as a strategic adversary. Does this term represent mainstream view among US strategic circles and scholars?
Allison: Unfortunately, yes. I think this is a very unsatisfactory summary. 

GT: 你说彭斯把中国描述成一个战略对手。这一术语是否代表了美国战略学界和学者的主流观点?
Allison:不幸的是,是的。我认为这是一个非常不令人满意的总结。

Trump is not the exception in the political class now. Across the board, Democrats and Republicans see China as the strategic adversary. In the policy surround in the universities and think tanks, especially for the people that study China, many of them feel like they were duped, or that they thought China was going to become a responsible stakeholder that was going to take its place in the America-led international order. And lo and behold, China wants to be China. 

特朗普现在也不例外。总的来说,民主党和共和党都把中国视为战略对手。在大学和智囊团的政策中,尤其是对那些研究中国的人来说,他们中的许多人觉得自己被骗了,或者他们认为中国将成为一个负责任的利益相关者,将在美国主导的国际秩序中占据一席之地。瞧,中国想成为中国。

I believe, as I write in my book, this earlier belief was na?ve. I quote Lee Kuan Yew on this. He said, as China gets bigger and stronger, China will want to be China and accepted as such, not as an honorary member of the West. 

我相信,正如我在书中所写的,这种早期的信念是天真的。我引用李光耀的话。他说,随着中国变得越来越强大,中国将希望成为中国并被接受,而不是作为西方的荣誉成员。

Americans were thinking China will follow the footsteps of Japan and Germany, it will open itself, it will become richer, it will have a middle class, middle class would demand political rights, therefore it will democratize, and then, it will be peaceful and take its place in the America-led order. You can see what Japan and Germany did. Maybe that was idealistic, well, certainly naive. 

美国人认为中国将追随日本和德国的脚步,它将开放自己,它将变得更富有,它将拥有一个中产阶级,中产阶级将要求政治权利,因此它将民主化,然后,它将是和平的,并在美国领导的秩序中占据一席之地。你可以看到日本和德国做了什么。也许这是理想化的,嗯,当然更是天真的。

Chinese have thought that China was a great society forever, for a thousand years except for this temporary interruption for the last couple of hundred years, when Europeans with technologies showed up to exploit us. But we are going to recover and become China again, make China great again. That's very understandable I think. And that's why the Thucydidean dynamic… is not idiosyncratic, this is not personally motivated. This is the dynamic of the reality of the situation. 

中国人认为中国永远是一个伟大的社会,除了在过去的几百年里有个短暂的中断,当时拥有技术的欧洲人出现来剥削我们。但是我们将会复苏,再次成为中国,让中国再次伟大。我认为这是可以理解的。这就是为什么修昔底德的动力…不是特殊的,不是个人的动力。这是现实情况的动态变化。

But in the American policy community, you can see people beating themselves, ok, I will be tougher on China than the next person. I think this is not healthy. Because it doesn't help you have clear eyes to see the reality.

但是在美国的政策圈子里,你可以看到人们在打自己,好吧,我对中国的态度会比下一个人强硬。我认为这是不健康的。因为这对你看清现实没有帮助。

GT: You suggested that the US should learn to accept China getting strong. But for the moment, the US seems to have shown no sign of willingness to do so, how long do you think it would take before the US accepts it? Or will the US accept it at all?Allison: The reality is, unless China goes off on some other trajectory, and I think it's not likely that it will, China will inevitably get bigger and stronger. That's just life. And as I quote Lee Kuan Yew in the book, he says look, Americans will not like this, because Americans are accustomed to be No. 1 in everything. So this will be very painful. He said it will be especially painful for Americans because of a small, poor, miserable people they looked down on become big and strong. So this will take a long time. But ultimately Americans are very pragmatic.

GT:你建议美国应该学会接受中国变得强大。但就目前而言,美国似乎没有表现出愿意这么做的迹象,你认为美国需要多长时间才能接受?或者美国会完全接受吗?Allison:现实情况是,除非中国走上另一条轨道,我认为这是不可能的,中国将不可避免地变得更大、更强。这就是人生。正如我在书中引用李光耀的话,他说,美国人不会喜欢这样,因为美国人已经习惯了在所有事情上都是第一。这将是非常痛苦的。他说,这对美国人来说尤其痛苦,因为他们所瞧不起的那些弱小、贫穷、悲惨的人变得强大起来。这需要很长时间。但归根结底,美国人是非常务实的。

It will be also very painful for Chinese for not being impatient. I would say it will take some hard work both by Chinese and Americans to adjust. The fact is life is hard, it's not supposed to be easy. That's why I think we should have all Americans and Chinese do very serious thinking about how can we escape the Thucydides Trap, and we should be very imaginative, so that's why I am hopeful.  

对于没有耐心的中国人来说,这也是非常痛苦的。我想说,中国和美国都需要付出一些艰苦的努力来适应。事实上,生活是艰难的,它不应该是容易的。这就是为什么我认为我们应该让所有的美国人和中国人认真思考如何才能逃脱修昔底德的陷阱,我们应该富有想象力,这就是为什么我充满希望。


 

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Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

注定战争:美国和中国能否逃脱修昔底德的陷阱?


 

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