国家仍然有足够的政策工具。
Nation still has sufficient policy tools
625字
2020-03-26 14:51
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火星译客

China still has relatively ample policy tools to maintain the stability of its financial markets and the yuan's exchange rate despite emerging markets' stocks and currencies facing growing selling pressure amid the novel coronavirus outbreak, economists said on Monday.

经济学家周一表示,尽管新兴市场的股票和货币在新的冠状病毒爆发期间面临越来越大的抛售压力,但中国仍有相对充足的政策工具来维持金融市场和人民币汇率的稳定。

The country's A-share market and its currency will not be immune to the external volatility but China could be better positioned than other countries to weather the global financial turmoil as policymakers in Beijing have enough ammunition to maintain domestic market stability, they said.

他们表示,中国的A股市场及其货币将无法免受外部波动的影响,但中国可能比其他国家更有能力抵御全球金融动荡,因为北京的政策制定者拥有足够的弹药来维持国内市场的稳定。

"While it is impossible for the A shares to stay completely unaffected, the epidemic in China has been better controlled and the economic outlook is becoming clearer. Additionally, the Chinese central bank is capable of keeping domestic liquidity and the market stable while there have been some capital outflows," said Xu Gao, chief economist at BOC International.

中银国际(BOC International)首席经济学家徐高表示:“尽管A股不可能完全不受影响,但中国的疫情得到了更好的控制,经济前景越来越明朗。此外,中国央行有能力在一些资本外流的情况下保持国内流动性和市场稳定。”

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was down by 3.1 percent on Monday at 2660.17 points. The ChiNext Index in Shenzhen, which tracks technology-focused startups, declined by 4.59 percent to close at 1827.05 points. The value of onshore-traded yuan weakened to 7.12 per dollar as of Monday afternoon.

上证综合指数周一下跌3.1%,至2660.17点。追踪科技型初创企业的深圳创业板指数下跌4.59%,收于1827.05点。截至周一下午,在岸交易的人民币贬值至1美元兑7.12美元.

The stock market rout in the United States over the past weeks has caused a domino effect in other parts of the world, prompting investors to sell their risky assets and driving up the demand for the US dollar in cash. This trend has put increasing downward pressure on emerging markets' stock prices and currencies and there have been signs that capital begins to flow back to the US.

过去几周美国股市的暴跌在世界其他地区造成了多米诺骨牌效应,促使投资者抛售高风险资产,并推高了对美元现金的需求。这一趋势给新兴市场的股价和货币带来了越来越大的下行压力,有迹象表明,资本开始回流美国。

The A-share market has seen a net foreign capital outflow of more than 20 billion yuan ($285 million) since the beginning of the year, according to the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

根据中国证券监督管理委员会(CSRC)的数据,自今年年初以来,A股市场净流出超过200亿元人民币(合2.85亿美元)。

Nonetheless, the country's equities markets have remained relatively stable and shown stronger resilience against external fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index has declined by about 10 percent since February while the US Dow Jones Industrial Average Index has plunged by more than 30 percent.

尽管如此,该国股票市场保持相对稳定,并表现出更强的抵御外部波动的能力。上海综合指数自二月份以来下跌了百分之十左右,而美国道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了百分之三十以上。

Li Chao, vice-chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said on Sunday that the resilience of the A-share market is related to the earlier domestic reform, which effectively reduced the amount of highly leveraged investment in the market.

中国证监会(CSRC)副主席李超周日表示,A股市场的弹性与早些时候的国内改革有关,这实际上减少了市场中的高杠杆投资。

The relative stability of the Chinese equities market also benefited from the sufficient liquidity and the low valuations of listed companies. Investors' sentiment is also supported by an improving economic environment as 98 percent of listed companies have resumed production, Li said.

中国股市的相对稳定也得益于充足的流动性和低估值的上市公司。投资者的情绪也受到经济环境改善的支持,98%的上市公司已经恢复生产。

While policymakers in Europe and the United States appeared to have run out of policy options by already substantially cutting interest rates to near-zero or negative territory to stimulate the economy, China's central bank and financial authorities have been more conservative and refrained from using massive easing policies to flood the markets with cheaper money.

尽管欧洲和美国的政策制定者似乎已经用光了政策选择,已经将利率大幅下调至接近零或负水平,以刺激经济,但中国央行和金融当局却更加保守,避免使用大规模宽松政策向市场注入更廉价的资金。

The People's Bank of China, the central bank, has kept the benchmark one-year lending interest rate unchanged at 4.05 percent from February's level. Instead, what the PBOC has done is cutting banks' reserve requirement ratios in a targeted approach and offering more relending to commercial banks. These moves aimed to ensure smaller businesses are able to gain necessary and affordable credit and prevent their cash flows from being disrupted by the economic damage caused by the epidemic.

中国央行(PBoC)将基准的一年期贷款利率从2月份的水平保持在4.05%不变。相反,中国人民银行的做法是有针对性地降低银行存款准备金率,并向商业银行提供更多相关服务。这些举措旨在确保较小的企业能够获得必要和负担得起的信贷,并防止它们的现金流动受到这一流行病造成的经济损害的干扰。

"Reserving policy room appears to be a wise move at the moment for the central banks as we believe that there could be a substantial economic recession when global monetary and fiscal policies are completely depleted," said Steven Zhang, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities.

摩根士丹利华信证券(Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities)首席经济学家张国文(Steven Zhang)表示:“目前,保留政策空间似乎是央行的明智举措,因为我们认为,当全球货币和财政政策完全枯竭时,可能会出现严重的经济衰退。”

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