给巴西的三个字
Three Words for Brazil
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2020-01-16 23:18
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As long-time investors in Brazil, the recent presidential election has been of keen interest to us. One can certainly say it's been an interesting race! The market had been volatile based on the changing polls leading up to the election; there were hopes that new leadership would ignite a positive new direction for Brazil's economy, which hasn't experienced the type of economic boom many (including us) had hoped for—and believe is possible. After a particularly close race, incumbent Dilma Rousseff emerged victorious and Brazil's stock market, at least initially, didn't seem to like the result. This isn't really a surprise, as many investors, frustrated with the direction of the economy and the business climate there, were clamoring for change. We hope that Rousseff can now follow through and deliver positive changes, not just promises.

作为巴西的长期投资者,我们对最近的总统选举一直十分关注。可以说这是一次有趣的竞选!不断变化的竞选调查结果,使得市场一直波动;巴西的经济之前一直没有像许多人(包括我们)所希望的繁荣发展,大家希望新的领导班子将振兴巴西的经济,而且相信这是有可能的。竞选结果非常接近,罗塞夫最终胜出,巴西的股市似乎并不喜欢这个结果,至少在最初阶段。这并不是一个真正的惊喜,因为许多投资者对经济方向和商业环境感到沮丧,叫嚣着变化。我们希望罗塞夫现在可以坚持下去并带来积极的变化,不仅仅是承诺。

Seemingly recognizing the stock market's potentially negative reaction, in her post-election speech Rousseff stated that one of her first tasks would be to overhaul the political system, with the intent to reduce corruption. She also pledged to engage in a more open dialog with her critics. Heavy bureaucracy and alleged cases of corruption (particularly among state-owned companies) are big problems that we think warrant attention. The bottom line, as reflected in the debate leading up to the election and the particularly close result—Rousseff received just over 51% of the vote—is that people want change. In our view, the degree of inefficiency and lack of progress with regard to reform is holding back investors and the country in general. Although we see some positive longer-term trends, recent macroeconomic indicators appear generally weak.

罗塞夫似乎认识到股市潜在的负面反应,她在选举后的讲话中表示,她的首要任务之一是全面改革政治制度,减少腐败。她还承诺与批评家进行更加开放的对话。我们认为,沉重的官僚作风和腐败(特别是国有企业)的指控是需要关注的大问题。关键是,如竞选辩论和非常接近的结果(罗塞夫获得刚刚超过51%的选票)所反映的,人们渴求变化。我们认为,效率低下和改革缺乏进展阻碍了投资者和巴西。虽然我们看到了一些积极的长期趋势,近期宏观经济指标普遍薄弱。

The unemployment rate is low, but that's tied in part to shrinking labor forces; job creation has deteriorated due to losses in construction, manufacturing and transportation sectors. Industrial output was down over the summer, stalled in part by the World Cup events as many workers, and host cities, took holidays. While tourism swelled, the event came with a high price tag, and it remains to be seen if significant long-term structural or economic benefits will result.

失业率很低,部分原因是因为劳动力萎缩;由于建筑业、制造业和交通运输部门蒙受亏损,新增就业机会减少。由于世界杯赛事,许多工人以及主办城市放假,因此夏季的工业产值下降。虽然旅游业膨胀,但世界杯的代价很高,是否能带来显著的长期结构性利益或经济利益还有待观察。

Brazil is currently flirting with recession, as gross domestic product (GDP) shrank in the first and second quarters of this year. Real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation) in Brazil is expected to rise a mere 0.3% in 2014, while consumer price inflation is expected to rise an uncomfortable 6.3%.1 I don't think you can blame Brazil's poor fundamentals solely on outside market influences. Brazil's economy is huge—the 7th largest in the world by GDP.2 Brazil has the resources and the people to do better from a domestic standpoint, regardless of the issues in the global economy, in our view.

巴西目前正在经济衰退的边缘,国内生产总值(GDP)在今年第一季度和第二季度萎缩。巴西实际GDP(扣除通胀因素)预计将在2014年仅增长0.3%,而消费物价通胀预期上升6.3%1。我认为巴西糟糕的基本面不是完全因为外部市场的影响。巴西的经济规模巨大,国内生产总值在全球排第七2。无论全球经济有什么问题,从国内的角度来看,巴西拥有的资源和人民能做得更好。

As investors, we certainly pay attention to the overall political and macroeconomic environment, but we don't base all of our investment decisions on these areas either. We remain investors in Brazil and plan to continue searching for potential opportunities there on a stock-by-stock basis. We have seen, for example, Brazilian banks show resilience during hard times, so that's an area we are watching. Consumer spending is a big question mark right now, as spending power is down. If Brazil's market continues to correct, we will be searching for potential bargains there, in companies we think can survive and, hopefully, thrive in spite of the broader political or macroeconomic environment. We would note that often the most unpromising short-term situations can potentially deliver the greatest long-term investment outcomes, as bad news can become overly discounted.

作为投资者,我们一定要注意整体的政治和宏观经济环境,但我们不会根据所有这些领域做出所有的投资决策。我们仍然是巴西的投资者,并计划继续在个股基础上寻找潜在的机会。我们已经看到,例如,巴西的银行在困难时期表现出韧性,所以这是我们正在关注的一个领域。消费者开支是一个很大的问号,因为消费能力下降。如果巴西市场不断回调,我们将寻找潜在机会进行投资,在政治和宏观经济环境中可以生存并有希望蓬勃发展的公司。我们注意到,最不被看好的短期形势往往可能会带来最大的长期投资结果,因为坏消息可能会被高估。

We also believe Brazil's exceptional endowment of natural resources, including both industrial and agricultural commodities, could have rising long-term value in an industrializing, urbanizing and increasingly wealthy world, while a growing body of middle-class consumers in Latin America at large could represent a substantial additional source of longer-term growth in demand.

我们也相信,巴西特殊的自然资源,包括工业和农业商品,在工业化、城市化和日益富裕的世界拥有上升的长期价值,拉美越来越庞大的中产阶级消费者是长期需求大幅增长的来源。

In our view, a more market-driven economic approach in Brazil, together with a reduction in bureaucracy, should benefit both the people of Brazil and investors in the country, but our investment metrics suggest that a number of businesses with strong management and attractive positions in their markets are well placed potentially to prosper even in a business-as-usual environment.

我们认为,如果巴西采取更加由市场推动的经济发展方向,并削减官僚,应该能让巴西人民和投资获益,但我们的投资指标显示,一些公司拥有优秀的管理层和市场地位,有能力在这个环境中蓬勃发展。 

We still remain optimistic that Brazil can reach its full potential with these three words: reform, reform, reform!

我们仍然乐观地认为,巴西可以通过这三个词充分发挥其潜力:改革,改革,改革! 

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息 

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。 

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。 

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2014. © by International Monetary Fund. All rights reserved.

1来源:国际货币基金组织世界经济展望,2014年10月。©国际货币基金组织。版权所有。

2. Source: World Development Indicators database, World Bank, 22 September 2014.

2来源:世界发展指标数据库,世界银行,2014年9月22日。

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