印尼乐观情绪
Indonesian Optimism
1973字
2020-01-16 23:39
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Southeast Asia represents one of the fastest-growing regions in the world today, and is one that we are excited about as investors. The Templeton Emerging Markets Group held our semiannual analyst conference in Jakarta in September, and one of the key reasons for choosing that location was to observe and discuss the changes and challenges on the ground with the new regime of President Joko Widodo. I've invited my colleague Tek Khoan Ong to pen some thoughts on the outlook and investment opportunities in Indonesia today.

东南亚是当今全球增长最快的地区之一,作为投资者,我们对这个地区感到非常兴奋。邓普顿新兴市场团队于9月份在雅加达举行半年一度的分析师会议,选择该地点的关键原因之一,是为了实地观察和讨论总统佐科·维多多新政权带来的变化和挑战。我邀请了我的同事Tek Khoan Ong谈一下如今印尼的前景和投资机会。

本帖还有中文 (简体) 、荷兰文、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

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As investors in Indonesia, we think there is much to be excited about. Indonesia has a large and young population that is fast-urbanizing and, hence, fueling growth in income and consumption. It has the world's 4th largest population of more than 240 million (5th largest considering the European Union as a whole, as of 2013), more than 40% of which are younger than 25 years old.1 Indonesia's resource-rich economy is the 16th largest in the world, and it could become the 7th largest by 2030, if the economy's GDP growth trend of 5-6% per annum continues.2 Indonesia's urban population of 110 million alone is expected to increase to over 200 million by 20303 and consumer spending is increasing rapidly among the estimated 45 million middle-income Indonesians.4 It means by 2030, Indonesia's economic strength could even overtake the economies of all EU countries, including Germany and the United Kingdom.

作为在印尼的投资者,我们有很多理由可以感到兴奋。印尼正在快速城市化,拥有庞大和年轻的人口,推动收入和消费的增长。它拥有超过2.4亿的人口,是全球人口第四多的国家(截至2013年,如果把欧盟作为一个整体考虑,它是第五多的),其中40%以上不到25岁1。印尼资源丰富,是全球第16大经济体,如果它的国内生产总值继续以每年5%至6%的速度增长,有可能在2030年前成为第七大经济体2。印尼的城市人口目前为1.1亿,预计到2030年会超过2亿3,约4500万中等收入的印尼人的消费能力正在迅速增加4。这意味着到2030年,印度尼西亚的经济实力甚至可以超越所有的欧盟国家,包括德国和英国。

As the largest nation in Southeast Asia by population, we believe Indonesia's growing prosperity will benefit the region as a whole.

印尼是东南亚人口最多的国家,我们认为它的日益繁荣将对这一地区整体上有利。

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High Hopes for The People's President

对人民总统的高期望值

Voted in as the “people's president” based on his humble background and his strong track record as mayor of Solo and governor of Jakarta, there are high expectations that President Joko Widodo (or “Jokowi” as he is popularly known) will be able to replicate his successes in those cities nationwide. We believe he has his heart and intentions in the right place and has a good core team to help him, but there will likely be speed bumps along the way. Regarded as a political outsider, Jokowi faces a number of challenges, which include dealing with his own party, the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P), and a fragmented Parliament.  A case in point is the selection of his Cabinet; a practical combination and one of the stronger governance teams in years—but with some members not his first choice. Then there are issues of corruption and a slowing economy with a twin (fiscal and current account) deficit. But Jokowi's biggest challenge is probably meeting the expectations of the Indonesian people.

佐科·维多多(或称“Jokowi”)出生卑微,担任梭罗市市长和雅加达首长时政绩良好,因此被誉为“人民的总统”,人们对他抱有很高的期望,希望他能复制他在这些城市的成功。我们相信,他的方向正确,并获得良好的核心团队协助,但一路上也很有可能崎岖不平。维多多被视为政治局外人,面临着许多挑战,其中包括处理他自己的党派—印尼斗争民主党(PDI-P)和一个分散的议会。一个典型的例子就是他对内阁的选择,非常实用的组合,也是近几年治理能力较强的团队之一,但也有一些成员不是他的第一选择。再者就是腐败问题和经济放缓以及财政和经常账户双双赤字。但维多多面临的最大挑战可能是如何满足印尼人民的期望。

Fuel subsidies, one legacy of former President Suharto, have been a subject of hot debate within the new regime. Fuel subsidies total about US$20-25 billion a year, or roughly 20% of Indonesia's budget, compared with just about 10% for infrastructure and 5% for health care.5 The fuel subsidy, when introduced, was meant to benefit the poor, but it has also benefited the rich so it is a blunt tool. In our view, reducing fuel subsidies should help Indonesia reduce its fiscal deficit and better allocate funds for much-needed reforms in infrastructure, health care and education. There had been previous fuel price hikes in fiscal years, 2005/2006 and 2008/2009, as well as most recently in 2013. Such price hikes have been accompanied by monthly cash subsidies to the poorest households for 2-9 months. In our view, any political fallout from such a reduction or removal should be temporary, especially given the president's popularity and his ability to engage the masses.

燃油补贴是前总统苏哈托的一个遗留问题,这一直是新政权内部热议的话题。燃油补贴每年的总额约200至250亿美元,或相当于印尼预算的约20%,相比之下,只有约10%和5%的预算分别用于基础设施和医疗卫生5。燃油补贴推出的时候,是为了使穷人受益,但它也让富人得益,因此这是一个生硬的工具。我们认为,减少燃料补贴应该会帮助印尼降低其财政赤字,并更好地分配资金用于急需的基础设施建设、医疗卫生和教育改革。2005年至2006年以及2008年至2009年财政年曾有过燃油价格上涨,最近一次是在2013年。每月现金补贴一直伴随着这种价格的上涨,最贫困的家庭获得2至9个月的补贴。我们认为,减少或去除燃油补贴所带来的任何政治影响应该是暂时的,尤其是考虑到总统的受欢迎程度和他与群众建立密切关系的能力。

Corruption and Bureaucratic Inefficiency: More Work to Be Done

腐败和官僚低效率:仍有许多工作要做

Indonesia has made inroads in addressing corruption with the establishment of the anti-corruption commission, officially named Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi (KPK). Established by law in 2002, the KPK is modeled after Hong Kong's Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC). KPK has prosecuted hundreds of cases with an excellent success rate, including successful cases against the chief justice of an Indonesian constitutional court, and the police inspector-general. Prominent businessmen, ministers and even former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's son have not been immune to investigation. We think much still needs to be done, as law enforcement is weak and coupled with regional autonomy, widespread corruption continues. We believe President Jokowi will need to continue to support and strengthen the efforts of the KPK. Recognizing that reducing corruption will require a change in mindset, President Jokowi is introducing a mental revolution in the education system, whereby the emphasis from a young age and in primary school will be on character building.

印尼在处理腐败方面取得了进展,建立了反腐败委员会,正式命名为Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi(KPK)。KPK于2002年根据法律设立,以香港廉政公署(ICAC)为蓝本。KPK已处理了数百起案例,包括针对印尼宪法/法院首席法官和警察监察长的成功案例。商界知名人士、部长,甚至前总统苏西洛·班邦·尤多约诺的儿子也不能幸免调查。我们认为仍有许多工作要做,因为执法薄弱,再加上区域自治制度,普遍的腐败现象仍然存在。我们相信维多多总统将需要继续支持和加强KPK的努力。维多多总统认识到减少腐败需要改变思维方式,因此推行教育体系的思维革命,即从小重点培养品格精神。

Addressing bureaucratic inefficiencies will need to take several forms, in our view. These include hiring capable people and putting in place a merit-based performance appraisal system, including better accountability and key performance indicators, as well as impromptu visits from senior officials, more online systems to improve transparency and fairness, and budget allocation based on targeted priorities.

我们认为,解决官僚主义的低效率需要采取几种形式。这包括聘请有能力的人,并推行以功绩为基础的绩效考核体系,包括更好的问责制和关键绩效指标,以及来自高级官员的突击检查,更多的网络系统来改善透明度和公平性,以及根据有目标性的优先权进行预算分配。

The Investment Outlook

投资展望

The Indonesian stock market has been performing quite well this year on the heels of strong performance in 2013, some of which has been tied to reform optimism with the new regime. President Jokowi is a change from all past presidents since Indonesia gained independence in 1945. Hence, we think some degree of optimism is justified, although as mentioned earlier, it will not be without hurdles. Given the performance of the market, it is indeed more expensive today than a year or two ago. However, we do not believe Indonesia's market is overvalued yet, provided the macroeconomic environment remains stable.

在去年强劲表现的基础上,印尼股市今年的表现一直不错,其中一些和新政权的改革乐观情绪相关。自印尼于1945年获得独立以来,维多多总统和所有前总统都不同。因此,我们认为一定程度的乐观是有道理的,但正如前面提到的,它不会没有障碍。鉴于市场的表现,如今股市确实比一年或两年前更昂贵。但是由于印尼的宏观经济环境保持稳定,我们认为印尼的市场未被高估。

We are finding potential investment opportunities in many sectors that benefit from existing demographics and expected reforms. These includes banks, which lend to both fast-growing corporates and provide mortgages, credit cards and other retail banking products to consumers, and companies in the consumer, resources and infrastructure-related sectors.

许多行业会受益于现有的人口趋势和预期改革,我们在这些行业寻找潜在投资机会。这包括向快速增长的企业放贷并向客户提供抵押贷款、信用卡和零售银行产品的银行,以及消费者、资源和基础设施相关行业的公司。

We also think there is room for equity investing to grow its domestic base. Indonesia historically has had high interest rates and inflation rates. As such, many Indonesians prefer to leave their savings in cash and deposits given the high returns, or invest them in properties as an inflation hedge. The fact that many Indonesian investors lost money in the stock market during the Asian crisis in 1997-1998 did not help the perception of the equity asset class. While equities may come with volatility, we think this is an attractive asset class over a mid- to long-period of time. For instance, over the past 10 years, the Jakarta Composite index (JCI) has delivered an annual return in US dollar terms of just under 20% per annum.6 We believe that with more investment education, a younger investing community, and a lower and more stable interest rate and inflation environment, there will eventually be more interest in equities, and in Indonesia, among the global investment community at large.

我们也认为股票投资在印尼有发展的空间。印尼在历史上有过高利率和高通胀率。因此,许多印尼人宁愿把自己的储蓄放在高回报的现金和存款里,或者投资房地产对冲通胀。许多印尼的投资者在1997年至1998年的亚洲金融危机期间在股市蒙受损失,这不利于对股票资产的看法。虽然股市可能会有波动性,我们认为这是一个在中长期内有吸引力的资产类别。举例来说,在过去的10年里,雅加达综合指数(JCI)以美元计算的年回报率将近20%6。我们相信,随着更多的投资教育,一个年轻的投资界,以及更低更稳定的利率和通货膨胀环境,全球投资界最终会对印尼股票产生兴趣。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

CFA®和 Chartered Financial Analyst®是特许金融分析师协会的专有商标。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

CFA®和 Chartered Financial Analyst®是特许金融分析师协会的专有商标。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: The World Bank, 2013 data.

1来源:世界银行,2013年数据。

2. Source: World Bank, GDP (current US$) 2013 data.

2来源:世界银行,2013年国内生产总值(现值美元)数据。

3. Source: McKinsey & Co., “The Evolving Indonesian Consumer,” November 2013.

3来源:麦肯锡,“不断变化的印尼消费者”,2013年11月。

4. Ibid.

4同上。

5. Source: The World Bank, “Economic Premise,” March 2014. Based on 2012 data.

5来源:世界银行,“经济前提”,2014年3月。以2012年数据为依据。

6. Source: Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

6来源:雅加达综合指数。指数不被管理,投资者不能直接投资于指数。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。

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