东盟的雄心壮志
ASEAN's Ambitious Agenda
2099字
2020-01-15 23:10
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The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is an example of how smaller global economies can band together to exert a more powerful influence within the international community and have their collective voice heard. ASEAN is made up of 10 members: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR (Laos), Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Originally founded in 1967 to foster regional cooperation and promote peace, ASEAN today has an ambitious agenda that includes accelerating economic growth, trade and regional interests in the decades to come. I've invited my colleague Dennis Lim to share some of his thoughts on the progress therein, and the investment potential we see in the region.

较小型的全球经济体如何联合起来在国际社会中发挥更强大的影响力,并拥有更有分量的发言权,东盟(ASEAN)是一个很好的范例。东盟有10个成员国:文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝人民民主共和国(老挝)、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南。东盟始建于1967年,以促进区域合作以及和平。如今东盟拥有一个雄心勃勃的议程,其中包括在未来几十年加速经济增长、贸易和区域利益。我邀请我的同事Dennis Lim分享他对东盟进展以及该区域投资潜能的一些想法。

这篇文章还有中文 (简体) 、荷兰文、法文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

We think the potential for ASEAN is tremendous for a number of reasons. The region has a population of more than 620 million, but unlike the economic powerhouses of Japan and China, which have a larger collective population, ASEAN nations have a more youthful demographic. For example, China's median age is 37 and Japan's is 46, while the median age for the ASEAN countries of Cambodia and the Philippines is 24.1 An aging population tends to exert a greater drag on resources, with fewer working-age people to support growth. If you put this more youthful population together with factors such as the rising per-capita GDP generally seen in the region, and its progress toward reforms and collective cooperation, to us the attraction to these markets seems obvious for multinational companies offering consumer goods and services, and for investors like us. Additionally, wages are currently lower in ASEAN countries than in Southern China, so manufacturing companies have been relocating to Vietnam, Indonesia and elsewhere in the region. When you combine these favorable demographics with the region's growth potential, you can see why they're worth paying attention to. We believe there is good potential for Asian economic growth to feed into corporate profitability, leading to expanded investment opportunities.

我们认为东盟的潜力巨大,背后有多个原因。东盟地区拥有6.2亿多人口,但不像日本和中国经济大国那样拥有庞大的整体人口,东盟国家的人口更年轻。例如,中国的中位数年龄是37岁,日本的是46岁,而柬埔寨和菲律宾的中位数年龄是24岁1。人口老龄化往往会拖累资源,还会有更少的劳动人口来支持经济增长。年轻的人口加上区域人均GDP增长、改革进程和合作努力等因素,这些市场对提供消费品和服务的跨国公司和我们这些投资者的吸引力显而易见。此外,东盟国家目前的工资比中国南部的低,所以制造企业已搬迁到越南、印度尼西亚和该地区的其他国家。当你把这些有利的人口情况与该地区的增长潜力放在一起看,你可以了解东盟为什么值得关注。我们相信,亚洲经济增长渗入到企业盈利能力有很大潜力,从而扩大了投资机会。

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Myanmar's Transition

缅甸的转型

While our investments have been currently focused on Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, we expect Vietnam to rapidly come onto the radar screen as the breadth and depth of the market continue to improve. The same is true of the Philippines. Over a longer time frame, we think Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos could be exciting as well.

虽然我们的投资都集中在泰国、印尼、马来西亚和新加坡,我们预计,随着越南市场的广度和深度不断提高,越南会快速进入我们的视野。菲律宾也是如此。在较长时间内,我们认为缅甸、柬埔寨和老挝也可能呈现让人兴奋的机会。

In November, Myanmar hosted the ASEAN-India summit, which coincided with the 25th ASEAN Summit. We should remember that Myanmar is the western-most nation in ASEAN and shares a common border with India, so if relations between the two sides continue to grow, then Myanmar could eventually serve as a gateway between India and ASEAN via land. The focus of the summit was on further liberalization to grow ASEAN-India trade, targeting US$100 billion by 2015. Significant ties already exist between the AEAN and India. There are sizeable Indian populations in several ASEAN countries, including Singapore and Malaysia. Cross-border investments and trade have grown sharply in recent years, and although not without differences at times, cooperation with China will also likely be important to ASEAN. China's proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), seen as a rival for financing to the World Bank or the Asian Development Bank, includes ASEAN members.

11月,缅甸举行了东盟—印度峰会,这正逢第25次东盟峰会。我们应该记住,缅甸是东盟国家中最靠西的国家,毗邻印度,因此,如果双方关系继续改善,那么缅甸可能最终成为印度和东盟之间的门户。本次峰会的重点是进一步开放扩大东盟与印度的贸易,目标是在2015年之前增长到1000亿美元。东盟与印度之间的关系已经密切。有几个东盟国家,包括新加坡和马来西亚,拥有相当多的印度人口。跨境投资和贸易在最近几年大幅增长,东盟与中国虽然时有分歧,但与中国的合作也将可能非常重要。中国提出的亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)包括了东盟成员国,被视为世界银行或亚洲开发银行融资的竞争对手。

We think, longer term, Myanmar has tremendous potential. It has vast natural resources that are yet to be fully tapped, and we are now seeing foreign investments pouring in after sanctions in place for years have been lifted. For example, the country has just awarded two telecom licenses to international operators. As Myanmar's economy is starting from a low base, we believe it is set for potentially very high growth in the next few years. The road is likely going to be long and difficult, but if Myanmar's government manages its transition process well, we think there could be good potential opportunities there for investors. Unfortunately, there is no stock market in Myanmar at the moment, so we have to invest indirectly, for example, through companies listed in Thailand.

我们认为,长期来看,缅甸有着巨大的潜力。它拥有丰富的自然资源,尚未得到充分开发,多年的制裁结束后,外国投资涌入缅甸。例如,缅甸刚刚把电信执照颁发给两家国际运营商。由于缅甸的经济从较低的基数起步,我们相信它在未来几年可能取得非常高的增长。这条路很可能会是漫长艰难的,但如果缅甸政府的转型过程顺利,那里可能有很好的潜在投资机会。不幸的是,目前缅甸没有股市,让我们不得不间接投资,例如,通过其在泰国的上市公司。

我们对泰国市场的长期前景抱有信心。我们注意到,尽管泰国经历了海啸、严重的季风洪水、长期的政治不稳定和自2002年以来的重大金融危机,泰国市场一直保持着长期稳固上升的趋势,我们认为这反映了泰国人民和泰国经济的应变能力。该国也将会成为东盟经济共同体(AEC)的重要成员,东盟经济共同体预计于2015年生效,创造一个东南亚十国的单一市场。我们认为,这可以产生可观的长期效益。

We are confident about the long-term prospects of the Thai market. We note that, in spite of having endured a tsunami, serious monsoon flooding, chronic political instability and a major financial crisis since 2002, the Thai market has maintained a solid long-term uptrend, which we believe demonstrates the resilience of Thailand's people and the Thai economy. The country will also be a key member of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which is expected to come into force in 2015 and create a single market out of 10 Southeast Asian nations. We think this effort could yield substantial longer-term benefits.

我们对泰国市场的长期前景抱有信心。我们注意到,尽管泰国经历了海啸、严重的季风洪水、长期的政治不稳定和自2002年以来的重大金融危机,泰国市场一直保持着长期稳固上升的趋势,我们认为这反映了泰国人民和泰国经济的应变能力。该国也将会成为东盟经济共同体(AEC)的重要成员,东盟经济共同体预计于2015年生效,创造一个东南亚十国的单一市场。我们认为,这可以产生可观的长期效益。

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Grappling with Global Central Bank Policies

应对全球央行政策

In the United States, the prospect of rising interest rates is something that market participants will likely have to cope with going forward. How ASEAN countries weather the impact of Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening potentially depends on how fast and how much rates rise. Financial markets are currently awash with liquidity, and we have yet to see inflation and interest rates move up significantly on a global scale. Most investors are likely aware of the activities of the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB), but perhaps less talked about is the fact that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has an even bigger balance sheet than the Fed. If you combine the balance sheets of the Fed, the ECB, the PBOC and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), their combined assets at the end of 2013 stood at over US$14 trillion, which is almost the size of the US economy.2 We know that the BOJ and PBOC continue to print money; the BOJ just announced an ¥80 trillion (about US$720 billion) package. A lot of the impact of central bank policies on ASEAN countries will likely depend on how quickly global economies return to health. When we see GDP growth start to pick up in Europe, Japan and the United States, and concerns about a hard landing in China dissipate, we believe that would be the time we would expect interest rates globally to start to rise.

接下来市场参与者将不得不面对美国利率上升的前景。东盟国家如何应对美联储收紧资金,要看利率上升的速度和幅度。金融市场目前流动性泛滥,而我们还没有看到全球范围内通货膨胀和利率显著上扬。大多数投资者可能都知道美联储和欧洲央行的举措,但也许较少谈论的是中国人民银行的资产负债表比美联储更大。如果你把美联储、欧洲央行、中国人民银行和日本央行的资产负债表加在一起,他们在2013年底的总资产已超过14万亿美元,这几乎是美国经济的规模2。我们知道,日本央行和中国央行继续印钞票;日本央行刚刚宣布80万亿日元(约合7200亿美元)经济刺激政策。央行政策对东盟国家的影响将可能取决于全球经济复苏的速度。当我们看到欧洲、日本和美国GDP的增长开始回升,以及有关中国经济硬着陆的担忧消散,我们认为届时全球利率将开始上升。

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Malaysia and Indonesia: Subsidies Subsiding?

马来西亚和印尼:补贴减少?

Malaysia is currently running a fiscal deficit because of the system of subsidies that it has had in place. The ruling party, which has been governing the country since it gained independence more than 50 years ago, has faced serious challenges from the opposition in the last couple of elections, which has made it difficult for the government to roll back these subsidies. We are now seeing that happen gradually; the government recently announced that starting in December, the cost of a popular grade of gasoline and diesel will be based on a managed float system. This move could help improve public finances going forward.

马来西亚由于补贴系统,目前财政出现赤字。从50多年前获得独立后掌权的执政党,在过去的几次选举面对了反对党的严重挑战,这使得政府很难撤回这些补贴。我们现在看到政府逐渐减少补贴,政府最近宣布,今年12月开始,汽油和柴油的一种常用品种的成本,将根据一个管理的浮动制度决定。此举可能有助于改善公共财政。

Subsidies have also been an issue for Indonesia; the newly elected government under President Joko Widodo has started to address subsidies, and recently increased petrol and diesel prices by 30%. (Read more about Indonesia in a prior blog post, “Indonesian Optimism.”)

补贴也是印尼的一个问题;总统佐科·维多多领导的新政府已经开始着手解决补贴问题,最近把汽油和柴油价格提高了30%。(了解更多关于印尼的内容,请阅读之前的博文 “印尼乐观情绪”。)

We believe the big development on the horizon in the next three to five years in Southeast Asia is the AEC, which will represent a common market that is expected to comprise 600 million people and have a combined GDP of nearly US$2 trillion.3 The AEC is envisaged to have the following key characteristics: (a) a single market and production base, (b) a highly competitive economic region, (c) a region of equitable economic development and (d) a region fully integrated into the global economy.4 We believe the fact that all countries will ultimately have to work toward a collective vision and cooperative spirit when AEC comes together should strengthen their partnership and, hopefully, improve the lives of the people. Malaysia takes the helm as chair of ASEAN in 2015 and will help formulate a 10-year roadmap for the community from 2016–2025. The theme it has chosen for next year really seems to cement this idea: “A People-Centric ASEAN.”

我们相信,东南亚未来三到五年的主要发展是东盟经济共同体,这是个预计包括6亿人口、总共近2万亿美元国内生产总值的联合市场3。东盟经济共同体预计有以下主要特点:(1)单一市场和生产基地,(2)竞争激烈的经济区域,(3)公平的经济发展和(4)区域完全融入全球经济4。我们相信一个事实,即当东盟合作经济体生效时,所有国家最终得向同一个愿景和合作精神努力,这应该能加强他们的合作关系,并有希望改善人民的生活。马来西亚是东盟2015年的主席国,将为东盟制定一个从2016年至2025年的十年发展蓝图,并已选择了“以人为本的东盟”这一主题,似乎真的要巩固这个想法。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: CIA World Factbook, 2014 estimates.

1来源:中央情报局世界概况,2014年预估。

2. Source: European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, as of 2013.

2来源:欧洲中央银行、美国联邦储备局、日本央行、中国人民银行,截至2013年。

3. Source: : World Economic Forum.

3来源:世界经济论坛。

4. Source: ASEAN Economic Community Factbook. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat, February 2011.

4 来源:东盟经济共同体概况。雅加达:东盟经济共同体秘书处, 2011年2月。

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