让人激动的非洲前景
Africa's Electrifying Future
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2020-01-14 22:16
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Emerging and frontier markets are a focal point of this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which takes place during the week of January 19. One of the sessions, “Achieving Africa's Growth Agenda,” is of particular interest to me. Our team still believes Africa overall has good long-term potential despite some near-term obstacles, one being the recent drop in oil prices, which could negatively impact countries that are highly dependent on oil revenues.

今年1月19日这周在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛上,新兴和前沿市场是受人瞩目的焦点。其中的一个会议主题“实现非洲的增长目标”让我特别感兴趣。我们的团队仍然认为,非洲整体上拥有良好的长期潜能,尽管短期内面临一些障碍,一是近期油价下跌,这可能对高度依赖石油收入的国家造成负面影响。

We believe infrastructure investment will be a key driver of economic development in Africa and that, of all aspects of infrastructure, the provision of electric power is among the most important. Statistics on power shortages, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, make for sobering reading. US Energy Information Administration statistics state that in 2011 the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa possessed only 78 gigawatts of installed generation capacity, of which South Africa accounted for 44 gigawatts. By comparison, installed capacity in the United States alone was 1,053 gigawatts. In other words, all of Africa has only 7% of the electric capacity of the United States. The European nations of Sweden and Poland each possessed similar generating capacity to the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa outside of South Africa.1 Furthermore, actual production capacity for Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be substantially lower than the theoretical quantity because of inadequate maintenance, outmoded equipment and fuel shortages. Electric power actually getting to end-users is also less than what is actually produced as a result of damaged power lines, transmission technical losses and just plain theft of electric power.

我们认为,基础设施投资将成为非洲经济发展的主要动力,其中,电力的供应是最重要的领域之一。电力短缺的数据,尤其是撒哈拉以南非洲地区的数据,非常发人深省。美国能源信息署的统计数据显示,2011年整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区只拥有78吉瓦(1吉瓦=1000兆瓦)的发电能力,其中南非占了44吉瓦。相比之下,单单美国的发电能力就达到1053吉瓦。换言之,整个非洲只有美国7%的发电能力。瑞典和波兰这两个欧洲国家的发电能力就相当于南非以外、整个撒哈拉以南非洲的发电能力1。此外,撒哈拉以南非洲地区的实际电力产能很可能会低于理论上的产能,原因包括维护不当、过时的设备和燃料短缺。而由于电力线路的损坏、输电技术性损耗和电力偷窃,最终用户获得的电力实际上也比产出的电力少。

Using per-capita data, a US citizen on average uses 12,461 kilowatt hours of electricity per annum; a citizen of Ethiopia uses 52. On average, only 30% of Sub-Saharan Africa citizens have any access to electric power,2 and even where power is available, provision can be sporadic, with frequent power cuts and “brown-outs.” One of my trips to Nigeria was enlivened by a power cut that unexpectedly left us stranded in the elevator at one of Lagos's most prestigious hotels. For factories and hospitals, such interruptions can be more than inconveniencing.

根据人均数据,一名美国公民每年平均使用12,461千瓦小时的电力;一名埃塞俄比亚公民每年平均使用52千瓦小时。撒哈拉以南非洲地区平均只有30%的公民能获得电力2,即使在电源可用的情况下,由于频繁的拉闸限电和电力限制,电力的供应可能是时有时无。有一次我到访尼日利亚,意外的停电把我们困在了拉各斯最负盛名的一家酒店的电梯里。对于工厂和医院,这种中断带来的不仅仅是不方便。

0115_AfricaPowerMap

If the challenge posed by Africa's electric power deficit is monumental, so is the effort currently going into addressing the problem. Many of the most dramatic projects relate to harnessing the potential of Africa's great rivers. Chinese firms utilizing skills built up during China's program of dam building and electricity generating-plant expansion are prominent in many of the schemes. The Ethiopian government has been particularly active in this area, with major projects involving most of the rivers flowing through the country, headed by a plan to dam the Blue Nile that could potentially generate six gigawatts of power. Uganda, Mozambique and Ghana are also among countries that have major hydroelectric schemes under way or planned. But the largest of all is the Inga Falls Number Three project on the Congo River in the Democratic Republic of Congo, initially intended to generate 4.8 gigawatts, but with a potential ultimate generating capacity in excess of 40 gigawatts.3

如果说非洲的电力短缺所带来的挑战是巨大的,目前解决这个问题所投入的努力也是巨大的。许多引人注目的项目涉及到使用非洲大河流的潜力。中国企业在大坝建设和发电厂扩建的技能,在许多项目都很抢眼。埃塞俄比亚政府在这个领域特别活跃,大型项目涉及了大部分流经该国的河流,为首的计划将在青尼罗河上建造大坝,有潜力发电6吉瓦。乌干达、莫桑比克和加纳等国也制定了水力发电计划或已经开始进行计划。但最大的项目是在刚果民主共和国位于刚果河上的因加瀑布三号项目,最初计划产生4.8吉瓦电力,但最终发电能力有可能超过40吉瓦3。

即使是规模较小的项目也可以提供不相称的好处。小规模发电已经是非洲的一个重要因素,不然 82%的肯尼亚人拥有手机、但只有20%的人口用上了电的这类数据没有什么道理可言。目前,很多这种离网电力生产来自于汽油或柴油发电机,价格昂贵,造成污染,并不是特别有效。这种情况可能会改变,因为太阳能发电技术迅速下跌的价格,以及蓄电和小规模分配的发展,给供照明和手机充电的小规模、离网电力网络带来了潜力。一个典型的例子是,津巴布韦领先的移动电话运营商已经推出了太阳能供电的手机充电器,还有更复杂的太阳能充电式台灯,拥有一个USB适配器,也能作为手机充电器。一些非洲电力项目是专门针对这类型的地方发展活动。

The China-supported dam building efforts, supplemented by other major projects, including proposed nuclear plants in South Africa and a major coal-fired power station in Zimbabwe, could potentially make a huge difference to Africa's generating capacity. However, as mentioned, distributing the power produced by these mega-projects will be a significant additional challenge given Africa's huge size, dispersed population, low per-capita incomes that encourage power theft, and even theft of valuable copper power cables. In a number of cases, political instability is an added challenge. Thus, the giant projects may have their main impact as “captive generating plants” built exclusively to supply large-scale mining or industry projects or wealthy urban areas where security and the ability to pay for power exists, rather than the population as a whole. There is also the question of significant environmental costs, though these need to be balanced against the benefits that they produce, in our view.

中国支持的大坝建设工作,加上其他主要项目,包括提议的南非核电厂和津巴布韦的主要燃煤电站,可能会给非洲的发电能力带来巨大的变化。然而,如前所述,由于非洲规模庞大、人口分散,人均低收入带来电力盗窃、甚至窃取有价值的铜电源线问题,输送这些大型项目所生产的电力有着显著的额外挑战。在许多情况下,政治动荡是一个更大的挑战。因此,大型项目可能成为“圈养发电厂”,专门为大型采矿或工业项目或安定以及有能力支付电费的富裕城市地区提供电力,而不是为整体的非洲人口服务。我们认为,由此带来的环境成本也是个重大的问题,需要与项目所带来的益处相平衡。 

A US government-sponsored initiative, Power Africa, is looking to provide financing and expertise to encourage investment links between businesses and African governments to develop smaller-scale, technologically innovative generation projects. The projects are slanted toward renewable energy solutions that utilize Africa's abundant resources of solar, wind and geothermal power, but are not neglecting the growing potential of natural gas as the number of hydrocarbon discoveries across Africa multiplies. The Power Africa initiative has been ongoing for a little over a year, but additional funding announced at the US-Africa Leaders Summit in August 2014 has increased the potential budget for the operation to US$26 billion in direct financing and investment guarantees. The initiative's 2014 annual report, produced ahead of the Leaders Summit, noted projects under way amounting to 2.8 gigawatts of generating capacity, with negotiations ongoing for an additional five out of a target of 10 gigawatts of new capacity by 2020. Key initiatives included wind farms in Kenya and Tanzania, a solar project in Tanzania and a major geothermal scheme in Ethiopia.

美国政府资助的一项举措——电力非洲,计划提供融资和专业技能,鼓励企业与非洲各国政府之间的投资联系,发展小规模和技术创新的发电项目。项目将主要利用非洲丰富的太阳能、风能和地热资源的可再生能源方案,但随着非洲油气发掘的数量倍增,也不忽视天然气的增长潜力。电源非洲举措已经持续了一年多,但2014年8月的美国非洲领导人峰会宣布了额外的资金,预算有潜力增加到260亿美元。该举措在峰会前发布的2014年度报告指出,正在进行的项目可带来2.8吉瓦的发电能力,并在就额外5吉瓦的新产能进行谈判,目标是在2020年之前达到10吉瓦的新产能。主要举措包括:肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚的风力发电场、坦桑尼亚的一个太阳能项目以及在埃塞俄比亚的一个大型地热资源计划。

Even smaller-scale projects could provide disproportionate benefits. Small-scale power generation is already a significant factor in Africa—otherwise, some statistics, such as 82% of Kenyans owning mobile phones4 when apparently only 20% of the population has access to electricity, would make little sense. At present, much of this off-grid electricity production comes from gasoline or diesel generators that are expensive, polluting and not particularly efficient. This situation could change as rapidly falling prices for solar generation technology and developments in electricity storage and small-scale distribution are providing the potential for small-scale, off-grid power networks for lighting and phone recharging to be rolled out. In a classic example, Zimbabwe's leading mobile phone operator has launched a solar-powered phone charger, as well as a more sophisticated solar rechargeable lamp that has a USB adaptor and doubles as a phone charger. Some of the Power Africa projects are specifically aimed at just this type of locally driven activity.

即使是规模较小的项目也可以提供不相称的好处。小规模发电已经是非洲的一个重要因素,不然 82%的肯尼亚人拥有手机、但只有20%的人口用上了电的这类数据没有什么道理可言。目前,很多这种离网电力生产来自于汽油或柴油发电机,价格昂贵,造成污染,并不是特别有效。这种情况可能会改变,因为太阳能发电技术迅速下跌的价格,以及蓄电和小规模分配的发展,给供照明和手机充电的小规模、离网电力网络带来了潜力。一个典型的例子是,津巴布韦领先的移动电话运营商已经推出了太阳能供电的手机充电器,还有更复杂的太阳能充电式台灯,拥有一个USB适配器,也能作为手机充电器。一些非洲电力项目是专门针对这类型的地方发展活动。

For us as investors, many of these developments represent potentially attractive opportunities. The mega projects may have substantial government input, but contractors and suppliers could see transformative benefits from the schemes. The Power Africa-type schemes tend to be led by US multinational corporations, but African partners are often involved, and a significant sub-theme of the project is encouraging African governments to privatize electricity generation—Nigeria's move to break up its underperforming state electricity company is a major case in point. As an example of the kind of innovation stimulated by the reforms, large quantities of the natural gas produced by Nigeria's oil fields is currently wastefully flared off, but the changes to power regulation have incentivized a local oil and gas company to build gas infrastructure and contract to power producers. Over time, not only will modern gas-fired generators provide reliable electricity at a competitive cost, but also gas will become a meaningful contributor to the oil company's revenues, something that was previously negligible. Even the micro power schemes could potentially offer opportunities in the longer term—after all, the grandest of blue-chip companies has to start somewhere.

我们作为投资者,许多这样的发展代表了有吸引力的潜在机会。大型项目可能获得了大量的政府投入,但这能为承包商和供应商带来变革性的益处。电力非洲式的计划往往由美国跨国公司主导,但非洲的合作伙伴经常参与其中,这个项目的目的之一也是为了鼓励非洲各国政府发电私有化,尼日利亚分拆其表现不佳的国家电力公司就是一个重要案例。改革刺激创新的一个例子是,大量尼日利亚油田生产的天然气目前正在被浪费燃烧,但电力条规的改变促使当地一家石油和天然气公司建立天然气基础设施,并和电力生产商达成合约。随着时间的推移,不仅现代化的燃气发电机组能提供成本具竞争力的可靠电力,而且燃气也将为石油公司带来有意义的收入,而这在以前是不被重视的。即使是微电力方案也可能在较长期内提供机会,毕竟,再大的蓝筹公司也得从小做起。

Above all, we believe the availability of reliable power could sustain dynamic economic growth rates across Africa, potentially enriching the population and creating markets for new consumer businesses. Nigeria is a prime example of the potential of these developments. Many higher-income households in Nigeria spend hundreds of dollars every month on gasoline generators simply to keep refrigerators and air-conditioning systems up and running. If these households had access to reliable and less expensive electricity, it would free up immense discretionary spending that could be redirected into savings, investment or consumption. The same is true for large and small businesses that depend heavily on the availability of a reliable source of electricity to be able to conduct their daily activities, which we believe could have a beneficial impact on consumer companies, as well as providers of financial services.

最重要的是,我们认为,可靠的电力供应可以维持整个非洲蓬勃的经济增长速度,可丰富人们的生活,为新的消费企业创造市场。尼日利亚是个很好的例子,体现了这些发展潜力。在尼日利亚,许多高收入家庭每月在汽油发电机上花数百美元,只是为了让冰箱和空调系统正常运行。如果这些家庭能够获得可靠、更便宜的电力,这将释放出巨大的可自由支配开支,可能会进入到储蓄、投资和消费。对严重依赖可靠电力来源来展开日常业务的大大小小企业来说也是如此,我们认为,这对消费类公司以及金融服务业者会带来益处。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: US Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics, 2014.

1来源: 美国能源情报署国际能源统计,2014年 

2. Source: ©OECD/IEA, 2014, Africa Energy Outlook, A Focus on Energy Prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Energy Outlook special report, IEA Publishing. Licence http://www.iea.org/t&c/termsandconditions/

2来源:经济合作与发展组织/国际能源署, 2014年,非洲能源展望,聚焦撒哈拉以南非洲地区的能源前景,世界能源展望专题报道,国际能源署出版。 许可:http://www.iea.org/t&c/termsandconditions/

3. Source: International Rivers.Org, Grand Inga Dam, DR Congo.

3来源:International Rivers.Org,大英戈大坝,刚果民主共和国。

4. Source: Pew Research Global Attitudes Project – Pew Research Center, Washington, D.C.

4来源:皮尤研究全球态度项目 – 皮尤研究中心,华盛顿特区。

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