亚洲改革为小公司带来巨大的潜力
Reforms in Asia Bring Big Potential for Small Companies
2241字
2020-01-14 22:38
52阅读
火星译客

本帖还有中文 (简体) 、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

At Templeton Emerging Markets Group, we believe Asia's combination of rapid economic growth, generally strong national finances and economic fundamentals has created an attractive landscape for equity investors. Seismic changes have been taking place in Asia's political arena over the past couple of years, including major elections, leadership transitions and even a military coup. These political shifts have economic reform implications as well. Although some of these reforms are historically unprecedented, we believe they offer investors reasons to be optimistic. In particular, smaller companies in emerging markets appear poised to potentially benefit amid more market-friendly reforms that break down barriers to entry and inspire entrepreneurship. Additionally, since small-cap companies are driven primarily by domestic demand, the recent drop in oil prices could be an added boon to these companies by freeing up consumer dollars.

邓普顿新兴市场团队相信亚洲快速增长的经济、整体强大的国家财政和经济基本面,为股权投资者创造了吸引人的环境。过去几年,亚洲的政局发生了剧变,包括主要的选举、领导班子过渡、甚至军事政变。这些政治变化也带来经济改革的影响。虽然有些改革是前所未有的,我们相信它们让投资者有理由感到乐观。更加亲市场的改革打破市场准入壁垒,激发企业家精神,新兴市场规模较小的公司特别受益。此外,由于小市值公司主要由国内需求驱动,近期油价下跌释放出消费能力,可能对这些公司是额外的福音。

Expectations of high economic growth rates in emerging Asia (driven by China and India) remain a key attraction to us. We believe such growth rates will be comfortably in excess of developed market growth rates in 2015.

亚洲新兴经济体高经济增长率(由中国和印度带动)的预期仍然是对我们的主要吸引力。我们相信,2015年这样的增长速度将轻松超过发达市场。

0115_EmergingAsiaGDP

Moreover, many Asian markets, among them China, India, Indonesia and South Korea, have announced or embarked upon significant reform measures differing in details, but generally aimed at sweeping away bureaucratic barriers to economic growth, encouraging entrepreneurship and exposing inefficient industries to market discipline. Most are also looking to rebalance economic activity away from export- and investment-heavy models to become more oriented toward consumer demand. Let's examine a few of these reforms in select countries.

此外,许多亚洲市场,包括中国、印度、印尼和韩国,已经宣布或开始了显著的改革措施,改革细节各不相同,但一般旨在扫除官僚主义对经济增长的阻碍,鼓励创业,让低效产业经受市场纪律的考验。大多数改革措施也旨在重新平衡经济活动,从以出口和投资为主的经济模式转向以消费需求为主的模式。让我们来看看一些国家的改革。

South Korea: Promoting Innovation and Entrepreneurship

韩国:鼓励创新和企业家精神

In 2014, South Korea launched a three-year plan to attract investors by focusing on innovation and cutting red tape for business. In our opinion, the most exciting element lies in proposals for “the creative economy,” which feature a set of measures aimed at fostering entrepreneurship and funneling funds toward startups, with an emphasis on projects that apply South Korea's strengths in information and communications technologies to other economic areas. Measures such as tax breaks for “angel investors,” visas for foreign entrepreneurs, state loans and purpose-built “incubators” providing facilities for high-technology startups are aimed at smoothing the way for new business launches. Another strand of the policy to encourage entrepreneurship is a pledge to reduce bureaucracy in key service industries such as health care, education, finance, tourism and software. We feel the health care and retail sectors could likely benefit most from these reforms.

2014年韩国推出了为期三年的计划,通过专注于创新和减少经商的繁文缛节来吸引投资者。在我们看来,最令人兴奋的元素在于“创意经济”的提议,包括了一系列旨在促进创业和让资金流入初创企业的措施,重点在于把韩国信息和通讯科技的优势应用到其他经济领域的项目。减免“天使投资人”税收、外国企业家签证、国家贷款和专用的“孵化器”为高科技初创公司提供设施等政策,目的是方便创业。鼓励创业的另一政策是承诺减少主要服务业的官僚作风,如医疗、教育、金融、旅游和软件。我们认为医疗保健和零售行业也可能受益于这些改革。

China: Changes in Financial, State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Sectors Look Promising

中国:金融、国有企业领域的改变有潜力

Reform efforts in China seem to be gaining momentum. Key initiatives announced thus far include deregulation and the opening of more industries to private investment, financial liberalization, resource pricing reforms, SOE reforms to improve efficiency and productivity, and the relaxation of the one-child policy, which we believe should enhance China's long-term growth potential and promote greater domestic consumption. We have found good value in banks in particular, mainly larger banks with stronger deposit franchises, and in other financial companies that have the potential to benefit from the development of capital markets. We also see good long-term value in the building materials sector, which has undergone massive market consolidation and capacity rationalization. Underpinned by structural demand growth, pharmaceuticals and selected companies in the consumer sector should, in our view, also benefit. We believe the government's ongoing efforts to rebalance the economy away from exports and investment toward domestic consumption look positive for the long-term performance of both the economy and markets.

中国改革开放的努力似乎加快了步伐。迄今为止宣布的主要举措包括放松管制以及让私人投资进入更多行业、金融自由化、资源价格改革、国有企业改革来提高效率和生产力、以及放宽独生子女政策,我们相信这应该会提高中国的长期增长潜力,促进国内消费。我们认为银行拥有良好的价值,特别是具有较强的存款业务的大银行,能从资本市场的发展中受益的其他金融公司也具备良好的价值。我们也认为建材行业拥有良好的长期价值,该行业已经进行了大规模的市场整合和产能合理化改革。在结构性需求增长的支持下,制药和消费领域的某些公司也会获益。我们相信,政府不断努力重新平衡经济,从出口和投资转向国内消费,对经济和市场的长期表现都是有利的。

India: Modi Adds to “Can-Do” Track Record

印度:莫迪的“敢做”记录又添一笔

Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party won an overwhelming victory during India's May 2014 elections, providing a single-party majority and a mandate for a strong central government. The prime minister's habitually long work days and focus on pro-growth policies have set a new tone for the government and have been contributing to the realization of Modi's 10-point agenda, which prioritizes better governance, a strong manufacturing sector, improved investment and low inflation.

纳伦德拉莫迪的印度人民党在2014年5月的印度选举中赢得了压倒性的胜利,单一政党占多数,让一个强大的中央政府掌权。首相习惯性的长时间工作日和重点支持经济增长的政策,为政府树立了新的基调,并有助于实现莫迪的十项议程,其中重点是更好的国家管理方式、强大的制造业、改善投资和低通货膨胀。

Reducing barriers to foreign investment was one of the first changes made by the new government, and inflows of foreign direct investment into India increased significantly during 2014.1 Progress has been made on the domestic front as well, with the government supporting a “Made in India” campaign, announcing a series of measures aimed at reducing red tape and relaxing the country's dated labor laws.

降低外国投资的门槛是新政府的第一批变化之一,2014年印度的外商直接投资显著增加1。国内投资也取得了进展,政府支持“印度制造“活动,宣布了一系列旨在减少官僚作风和放宽国家陈旧的劳动法的措施。

Toward year-end 2014, the government introduced a landmark goods and services tax bill in parliament. Other structural reforms in the works include infrastructure improvement, which, if realized, could in turn benefit the materials sector. We expect fuel subsidy reductions to continue, with state-owned oil firms potentially the prime beneficiaries. An expected reduction of government involvement in the financial sector could provide a boost to that sector.

2014年年末,政府在国会出台了具有里程碑意义的商品及服务税法案。其他尚在进行的结构性改革包括基础设施的改善,如果实现,这可以惠及原材料领域。我们预计燃料补贴减少会继续,国有石油企业是潜在的主要受益者。政府在金融业的干预预计减少,可以推动该行业。

Indonesia: Widodo's Initiatives

印度尼西亚:维多多的倡议

Joko Widodo's election as Indonesia's president in October 2014 bodes well for the country, in our view, given his ambitious plans to cut subsidies and increase investment. We anticipate that these proposed policies should encourage both foreign and local investment over time. Already, Widodo has cut popular fuel subsidies, which account for a sizeable portion of total government spending in Indonesia. Elimination of these subsidies, we believe, should give the government better flexibility to tackle other parts of Widodo's reform agenda.

佐科·维多多于2014年10月当选印尼总统,在我们看来,他雄心勃勃削减补贴和增加投资的计划,对印尼是个好消息。我们预计,随着时间的推移,这些建议的政策应鼓励外国和本国投资。维多多已经削减了受欢迎的燃油补贴,这占印尼政府总支出的很大一部分。我们认为,取消这些补贴应该会给予政府更大的灵活性,以解决维多多改革议程上的其他课题。

Among the new government's key priorities are bolstering the country's electricity infrastructure, improving its ports and roads, and significantly enhancing education. While markets cheered the bold move to reform energy subsidies, these other structural reforms will likely take time to complete and will not have an immediate impact on economic growth. Nonetheless, optimism about the newly elected reformist government and some encouraging amendments to a proposed ban on metal ore exports bolstered investor sentiment in Indonesia this year. Although banning metal ore exports comes at a significant cost to mining companies, we believe this change means the industrials sector should grow over the longer term. Moreover, Indonesia has a rising middle class, and we believe consumer-oriented sectors such as banking and automobiles may benefit as Widodo's reform efforts gain traction.

新政府的重点包括了增强国家的电力基础设施、改善港口和道路以及显著改善教育。虽然市场为改革能源补贴的大胆举措欢呼雀跃,这些结构性改革可能需要一段时间才能完成,不会对经济增长产生直接影响。不过,对新当选的改革派政府的乐观情绪,和禁止金属矿出口提议的一些令人鼓舞的修正,提振了今年投资者的情绪。虽然禁止金属矿石出口对矿业公司带来显著成本,我们相信这个变化意味着工业领域在长期内应取得增长。此外,印尼的中产阶级正在崛起,随着维多多的改革努力加快,我们相信消费者为导向的行业,如银行和汽车可能会受益。

Thailand: Business as Usual under Military Rule

泰国:军事统治下一切照旧

After a military coup in Thailand in May 2014, civil unrest has abated and normal business operations have continued with little disruption. We believe it will take some time before the military steps back and civilian rule is reinstated. Before any changes occur to the current political situation, we believe a new constitution acceptable to all parties will need to be drafted, followed by another round of elections. In the meantime, the military regime has allowed the private sector to conduct business activities freely, so long as they do not breach national security. The military regime also is reviewing all major public investment programs as part of a pledge to fight corruption and bribery. Notwithstanding the political uncertainty, Thailand has a large middle class and a growing consumer population, which we believe bodes well for the economy over the longer term. We have focused on consumer goods and services, including banks and property companies, as people move to the cities and require housing.

2014年5月泰国军事政变后,内乱已大大减少,商家继续正常经营。我们相信,军事统治退出和重新恢复民政统治需要一段时间。在目前的政治局势出现任何变化前,泰国需要起草让各方都能接受的新宪法,接着进行又一轮选举。在此期间,军政府已经允许私营部门自由地开展业务活动,只要不违反国家安全。军政府也正在审查所有重大公共投资项目的承诺,这是打击腐败和贿赂的一部分。尽管政局不确定,但泰国拥有庞大的中产阶级和不断增长的消费群体,我们相信这有利于长期经济。我们专注于消费品和服务业,包括银行和地产公司,当人们搬迁到城市时,他们需要住房。

Structural Interest in Small-Cap Stocks

对小盘股的结构性兴趣

The Asian small-cap space has been garnering considerable interest in recent years, and we believe this increased interest in small caps is structural and long term in nature, as investors approach emerging market investing with more granularity. We believe smaller companies in emerging markets could prove potential beneficiaries of the reforms touched on here, as well as others taking place in the region.

亚洲小盘股近年来吸引了相当多的兴趣,随着投资者更细看新兴市场投资,我们相信对小盘股的兴趣增加在本质上是结构性和长期的。我们认为,上述所谈到的改革以及地区内其他改革,会让新兴市场规模较小的公司潜在受益。

Additionally, since revenue for small-cap companies is driven primarily by domestic demand, the combination of good economic growth, a growing Asian middle class and lower oil prices could be an added benefit to these companies, freeing up consumer dollars to purchase their wares. The decline in oil prices also helps ease inflationary pressures in a number of emerging economies such as China. This not only boosts consumer purchasing power, but could enable central banks to be more accommodative in setting policy, both of which are likely positive for growth. Within the small-cap space in emerging Asia, we currently consider consumer-oriented companies to be particularly attractive given the growth opportunities we see across many markets, as well as health care, including pharmaceuticals and biotechnology.

此外,由于小市值公司的收入主要是由国内需求推动,良好的经济增长、蓬勃发展的亚洲中产阶级和较低的油价,让消费者能有更多钱购买产品,可能为这些企业带来额外的益处。油价的下跌也有助于缓解一些新兴经济体如中国的通胀压力。这不仅提高了消费者的购买力,也可能让央行在制定政策时伸缩范围更大,这两者都可能会有利于增长。在亚洲新兴市场小盘股,我们目前认为面向消费者的公司特别有吸引力,我们在许多市场看到增长机会,另外医疗保健,包括药品和生物科技也是如此。

We note that many smaller companies in emerging markets are overlooked by most investors, which allows us to utilize our on-the-ground research capabilities to spot potential bargains that don't get much attention or research following.

我们注意到,许多新兴市场的小公司被大多数投资者忽视,这使我们能够充分利用我们的实地研究能力,寻找没有获得太多关注和研究的潜在好机会。

If governments are unable to deliver on their promised reforms, investor optimism could diminish very quickly. However, markets are made up of individual companies. Good management and solid business models can prosper even when external circumstances appear difficult. And, periods when market sentiment is at its weakest are often those when the most rewarding investments can be made. Our investment research continues to identify companies—both large and small—across the emerging markets universe that we believe have strong long-term prospects and attractive valuations.

如果政府不能履行其改革承诺,投资者的乐观情绪可能会非常快地下降。然而,市场是由一个个公司组成的。当外部环境看似艰难时,良好的管理和雄厚的商业模式仍然能蓬勃发展。而且,当市场情绪是最薄弱的时候,往往是能做出最有价值投资的时候。我们继续在整个新兴市场进行投资和研究,寻找我们认为具有较强的长期发展前景和有吸引力估值的公司,无论它们的规模是多大。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。  

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。   

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: Moody's, November 2014.

1. 来源:穆迪,2014年11月。

0 条评论
评论不能为空