谈谈希腊
A Few Words on Greece
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2020-01-14 22:23
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Greece's ongoing debate about the best way forward has now played out at the ballot box, although many uncertainties remain. On January 25, Syriza, an extreme left-wing party led by Alexis Tsipras, won the biggest share of the vote in Greece's elections, and it now has 149 seats in parliament, leaving it two seats short of an absolute majority.

关于希腊今后最佳发展道路的辩论,虽然仍有很多不确定性存在,但是已经交由投票决定。1月25日,齐普拉斯亚历克西斯带领的激进左翼联/盟,在希腊大选赢得了最多的选票,它现在拥有149个议会席位,距离绝对多数差两个席位。

Because Greece is a small part of the emerging markets universe, and is a small economy within the eurozone overall, it is our view that the markets had largely priced in the news, and that it should not have widespread global market impact. However, we see the Greek election as bringing to the fore how the country's debt situation—and issues related to debt problems in Europe overall—requires dramatic changes and bold action. With the election now over, the Greek government can hopefully move forward and institute policies designed to foster growth, with an emphasis on change. We are optimistic these policies will give the Greek population hope for a better life, rather than a future of only debt payments.

由于希腊是新兴市场的一小部分,而且是整个欧元区内的一个小型经济体,我们认为,市场已经消化了这个消息,它应该不会对全球市场产生广泛的影响。但是,希腊选举让市场关注该国的债务问题,以及和整个欧洲债务相关的问题,解决这些问题要求巨大的改变和大胆的行动。大选已经结束,希腊政府希望能够继续前进并推行旨在促进增长、重点在于改变的政策。我们看好这些政策会给希腊人民带来更美好生活的希望,而不仅仅是用债务支付的未来。

We believe there is no question that a continuing emphasis on cutting spending and investment will not help Greece recover from the current situation. What is needed, in our view, is more investment and a path toward recovery. To achieve that, we believe the new government's emphasis on easing the pain to the ordinary Greek citizen is the correct path. Also, we think its emphasis on renegotiation of the stringent terms imposed on the country would be positive in terms of injecting more optimism.

毫无疑问,继续强调削减开支和投资,无助于希腊从目前的情况中恢复。我们认为,急需的是更多投资和走向复苏的道路。为了实现这个目标,新政府着重缓解普通希腊公民的痛苦是正确的。此外,政府重新谈判欧盟对该国实施的严格条款将是利好的,会注入更多乐观情绪。

We believe Greece's ability to renegotiate both the debt arrangements and conditions with the troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund will likely prove extremely challenging. February 28 will mark a key milestone; it's the day Greece's financial bailout is due to expire. It remains to be seen if Greece can negotiate an extension or some other measure to avoid default and allow Greek banks to continue to access ECB liquidity.

希腊与欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织重新谈判债务安排和条件,可能会极具挑战性。 2月28日将迎来一个重要的里程碑;当天希腊的金融救助计划将到期。希腊是否可以协商延期或其他措施,以避免违约,并让希腊银行继续获得欧洲央行的资金,这还有待观察。

Of course, the devil may be in the details—and there has been disagreement on those details within the Greek populace. As Syriza fell two seats short of an absolute majority, a coalition party would be required to hold a strong position in parliament; Mr. Tsipras has apparently been aligning with the Independent Greeks known as ANEL (a right-wing, anti-austerity party). The Syriza party had successfully campaigned on an anti-austerity ticket, and it was well-telegraphed that Syriza intended to renegotiate the terms of Greece's debt agreement with the European Union (EU).

当然,关键在于细节,希腊民众对这些细节出现了分歧。由于激进左翼/联盟距离绝对多数差两个席位,在国会取得强势地位需要一个联盟党;齐普拉斯显然已经和被称为ANEL的独立希腊人党(右翼反紧缩政党)形成联盟。激进左翼/联盟竞选时已经成功主张反紧缩,并且已经表明打算重新与欧盟谈判希腊债务协议的条款。

Austerity is never popular and has been especially unpopular in Greece, but at the same time there doesn't appear to be a large groundswell of support for Greece to exit the eurozone. That presents a challenge for political leaders, as austerity measures have been a condition for Greece to secure financing. Perhaps the biggest implication of Greece railing against austerity is what this will mean for other eurozone members facing similar situations—including  Italy, Portugal or Spain—and whether long-term it will lead to broader changes in the region.

紧缩政策永远不受欢迎,在希腊尤其如此,但同时对希腊退出欧元区也没有多大支持。这为政治领导人带来了一个挑战,因为紧缩措施是希腊获得融资的条件。也许希腊反对紧缩的最大意义是,这对其他面临类似情况的欧元区成员国造成的影响,包括意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙,以及长期下去是否将导致欧元区出现更广泛的变化。

As we see it, there is no question that Greece should and likely will stay in the eurozone. As some observers have pointed out, after World War II Germany was bailed out, its debts were forgiven and it received a massive investment program under the Marshall Plan. This is a time when the EU should engage in an investment program for Greece and other indebted countries to encourage economic growth, in our view.

正如我们所看到的,毫无疑问,希腊应该而且很有可能会留在欧元区。正如一些观察家指出的,第二次世界大战后德国被保释出来,其债务被赦免,在马歇尔计划下获得了庞大的投资项目。现在是时候让欧盟为希腊和其他重债国推出投资计划,以促进经济增长。

At this time, we don't plan any changes to our investment strategy as a result of the vote, but we will be watching developments closely. As always, we'll be looking for potential values that may surface in emerging Europe. We believe the long-term investment outlook for Greece is good. Greek stocks are generally not overvalued at this time based on our research, although there are significant differences in valuations. Greek banks look particularly attractive to us, if we assume a long-term recovery of the Greek economy.

目前,我们没有因为投票结果而打算改变我们的投资策略,但是我们将密切关注事态的发展。与往常一样,我们将寻找欧洲新兴市场的潜在价值。我们相信希腊的长期投资前景良好。根据我们的研究,目前希腊股一般不被高估,虽然估值存在显著的差异。如果我们假定希腊经济会取得长期复苏,希腊银行股特别有吸引力。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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