货币政策举足轻重
Monetary Policy Matters
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2020-01-12 23:29
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This year we expect the divergence in monetary policy among the world's central banks to be a key theme and a likely driver of asset flows. For now, the scorecard seems to be tilted toward monetary easing since in the first month of 2015 alone, 14 central banks engaged in some form of monetary policy loosening, generally in the form of interest rate cuts or asset purchases.1 Denmark's central bank has been particularly aggressive in regard to the former, slashing interest rates four times in a three-week period already this year, while the European Central Bank (ECB) announced plans to step up its quantitative easing (QE) game plan, taking a page from the playbook of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan.

今年,我们预计全球央行货币政策的分歧是个关键的主题,并很可能推动资产的流动。目前来看,2015年第一个月开始,记分卡似乎向宽松货币政策倾斜,14个央行都采取了某种形式的货币政策宽松行动,一般是以降息或资产购买的形式1。丹麦央行在降息方面非常积极,三个星期的时间内四度削减利率,而欧洲央行(ECB)也效仿美国联邦储备局和日本央行,宣布加强其量化宽松政策(QE)的计划。

0215_EasingActions

When it comes to QE, “easing” really isn't an accurate description—in actuality, it is about expanding rather than easing. The first phase of the Fed's money-creation program (QE1) started in late 2008 in response to the US sub-prime financial crisis, in the form of a program to purchase government debt, mortgage-based securities and other assets primarily from banks who were suffering from the declining value of those assets. The original program was set at US$600 billion, but the expected economic recovery and ending of tight credit did not materialize as expected. Hence, QE2 was launched in 2010, and then two years later, QE3, as policy makers became more and more desperate to create the required economic stimulus. In total, more than US$4 trillion (close to the size of China's foreign exchange reserves) was spent, about six times the original plan. The result was a three-fold expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.

说到QE,“宽松”真的不是准确的描述,实际上,它是要扩大,而不是放宽。美联储为应付美国次贷金融危机,于2008年底开始实施第一期量化宽松(QE1),它的形式是向银行购买它们价值下滑的国债、抵押贷款为基础的证券和其他资产。计划原定为6000亿美元,但经济没有如预期复苏,信贷的紧缩也没有如期结束。因此,在2010年推出QE2,两年后又推出QE3,因为政策制定者越来越急需创造所需的经济刺激。总体而言,超过4万亿美元(接近中国外汇储备的规模)花在了这上面,大约是原计划的6倍。其结果是,美联储的资产负债表扩张了三倍。

In my view, what's most important to note is that during those years the United States was not the only country to launch such a program. In the United Kingdom, a £75 billion (about US$120 billion) program was launched in 2009, and that program was gradually expanded to £375 billion (about US$600 billion). The Bank of England's balance sheet expanded four-fold; the government was using new money to buy back its own debt. Improving economic conditions in both the United States and United Kingdom have now turned the discussion in those markets toward the timing of a wind down and potential interest rate increases ahead.

在我看来,最值得注意的是,在那些年里,美国不是唯一推出这样计划的国家。英国于2009年推出了750亿英镑(约1200亿美元)的计划,并逐步扩大到3750亿英镑(约6000亿美元)。英国央行的资产负债表扩大了四倍;政府用新的资金来回购自己的债务。随着美国和英国的经济环境改善,两国现在已经在讨论何时缩小购债计划以及加息。

As easing decelerates in the United States and United Kingdom, it marches on in other countries. In October 2014, the Bank of Japan expanded its monetary policy efforts, increasing asset purchases to ¥80 trillion annually (US $674 billion). Dubbed by some as “quantitative and qualitative easing,” or “QQE,” Japan's central bank has been battling deflation and attempting to jumpstart years of economic stagnation.

美国和英国的货币宽松政策减速,但其他国家却正在加速。2014年10月,日本央行扩大了货币政策的力度,把资产购买的规模增加到每年80万亿日元(6740亿美元)。一些人戏称之为“量化和质化宽松”或“QQE”,日本央行一直在和通缩作斗争,并试图快速启动停滞多年的经济。

The eurozone continues to suffer the fallout from sovereign debt problems and a prolonged period of anemic growth, accompanied by deflationary side effects. So in January, the ECB applied a similar QE solution as in the United States and Japan by announcing plans to purchase at least €1 trillion in bonds starting in March, the central bank emphasized its desire to inject liquidity into the markets.

欧元区继续被主/权债务问题和长期增长乏力拖累,并伴有通货紧缩的副作用。因此1月,欧洲央行采用了类似美国和日本的QE方案,宣布计划从3月起购买至少1万亿欧元债券,央行强调了其为市场注入流动性的愿望。

In emerging markets, we have also seen some policy divergences but the general bias seems toward easing at this stage. Let's take a look at a few key recent policy actions and some of the rationale behind them.

在新兴市场中,我们也看到了一些政策分歧,但总的看来在目前阶段偏向于宽松。让我们来看看近期几个关键的政策行动和其背后的一些原因。

China (Easing)

中国(放宽)

Following a surprise interest rate cut in November, on February 4, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR) by 50 basis points (0.50%), with the goal of fueling an estimated 600 billion yuan (US$96 billion) into the money supply. The PBOC also announced an additional 50 basis-point cut in RRR cut for smaller financial institutions focused on micro enterprises and agricultural lending, as well as a 400 basis-point RRR cut (4%) for the Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC). The government hopes these measures provide an economic boost amid a number of weaker-than-expected statistics, including a key manufacturing barometer, the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), which dropped below 50 in January 2015. China's government reported gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2014 as a whole rose 7.4% on a year-over-year basis, compared with an increase of 7.7% in 2013. We at Templeton Emerging Markets Group are not concerned that China's growth has been slowing, and believe 7%+ growth for an economy of this size appears quite robust. Nonetheless, the PBOC clearly has its eye on ensuring China remains a global growth engine, and it would not be surprising to us to see further easing measures this year.

继11月意外降息后,中国人民银行于2月4日下调银行存款准备金率(RRR)50个基点(0.50%),目的是为市场注入预计6000亿人民币(960亿美元)。中国人民银行也宣布,主要为微型企业和农业提供借贷的小型金融机构的存准率额外下调50个基点,中国农业发展银行存准率下调400个基点(4%)。中国经济数据疲软,关键的制造业晴雨表采购经理指数(PMI)​​1月份下降到低于50的水平,政府希望这些措施能提供一些经济刺激。中国政府报告的国内生产总值(GDP)2014年同比增长7.4%,2013年增长为7.7%。邓普顿新兴市场团队并不担心中国经济增长出现放缓,并认为超过7%的增长对这样规模的经济来说相当强劲。尽管如此,央行显然要确保中国仍然是全球经济增长的引擎,因此今年再度放宽货币政策也并不令人意外。

India (Easing)

印度(放宽)

India has been in the easing camp as well, despite robust GDP growth. A revision in the methodology used for calculating national accounts data, which brings India's GDP statistics closer to global standards, led to a significant upward adjustment to the country's most recent GDP data. Newly released data from the Indian government indicated that GDP growth increased to 6.9% year-over-year for the fiscal year ended March 2014, from 4.7% previously. Similarly, growth for the fiscal year 2012-13 was adjusted to 5.1% on a year-over-year basis from 4.5%.

尽管GDP增长强劲,但印度已经加入宽松阵营。印度修改了国民经济核算数据的计算方法,这使印度的GDP统计数据更接近国际标准,导致该国大幅上调了最新的GDP数据。印度政府最新公布的数据显示,截至2014年3月的财年GDP增长提高到6.9%,之前是4.7%。同样的,2012至2013财年的增长从4.5%调高到5.1%。

In January, the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets with a 25 basis points (0.25%) cut in the key interest rate to 7.75%. Easing inflationary pressures led the Bank to reduce interest rates as part of efforts to further boost economic growth. Then, on February 3, the statuary liquidity ratio (which measures the share of demand deposits and liabilities that banks must hold as reserves) was lowered to 21.5% to help encourage banks to lend. While India's consumer price index increased to 5.0% in December 2014 on a year-over-year basis from a record low of 4.4% in November, the rate remained significantly lower than the 8.8% recorded in January 2014, adding some measure of comfort to loosening policy. Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has stated lower oil prices have dampened the threat of inflation in the country, and indicated that further interest rate cuts could be forthcoming.

今年1月,印度储备银行出乎市场意料的把关键利率下调25个基点(0.25%)至7.75%。通胀压力的缓解导致央行降低利率,以进一步刺激经济增长。随后,2月3日,法定流动性比率(衡量银行储备中必须持有的活期存款和负债比率)降至21.5%,以鼓励银行放贷。而印度的消费者物价指数增长从11月的4.4%的历史低点,攀升到2014年12月的5.0%,虽然仍比2014年1月的8.8%低得多,但还是为宽松的货币政策带来了一些安慰。印度储备银行行长拉古拉姆·拉詹曾表示,低油价已经减小了通胀对印度的威胁,并表示进一步降息可能即将到来。

Russia (Easing)

俄罗斯(放宽)

Russia's Central Bank unexpectedly reduced its benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points (2.0%) to 15% in January to support the domestic economy. The central bank had previously raised interest rates to 17% from 10.5% in December as part of efforts to stabilize the Russian ruble and curb inflationary pressures. Inflation rose to its highest level in more than five years in December largely due to higher food costs, as the consumer price index jumped to 11.4% on a year-over-year basis from 9.1% in November. In the past couple months, the government announced a series of measures worth at least US$35 billion to tackle the economic crisis in the country. Measures included a US$15.7 billion recapitalization of the banking system and US$4.7 billion capital injection into the state development bank to allow it to increase lending to support the domestic economy. Clearly, Russia still has a number of challenges ahead that monetary policy alone cannot solve. In January, international ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the country's sovereign credit rating to BB+ from BBB-, below investment grade status, citing deteriorating asset quality in the financial system as a result of the weaker ruble, restricted access to international capital markets due to sanctions and likely economic recession in 2015.

俄罗斯央行1月出人意料地将基准利率下调200个基点(2.0%)至15%来支持国内经济。央行为稳定卢布和遏制通胀压力,于去年12月把利率从10.5%上调至17%。12月通胀率上升至五年多来的最高水平,主要是由于食品价格攀升,消费者价格指数12月同比跃升11.4%,11月份则攀升9.1%。在过去的几个月中,政府宣布了一系列价值至少为350亿美元的措施,应对经济危机。措施包括为银行体系注资157亿美元,为国家开发银行注资47亿美元,使其能够增加贷款以支持国内经济。显然,俄罗斯仍然拥有一些不能单单通过货币政策解决的挑战。今年1月,国际评级机构标准普尔把该国的主/权信用评级从BBB-下调至BB+,低于投资级别,理由是由于卢布走软,金融体系中资产质量日益恶化,制裁使得俄罗斯难以利用国际资本市场,以及2015年可能出现的经济衰退。

Turkey (Easing)

土耳其(放宽)

The central bank in Turkey reduced its key benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (0.5%) to 7.75% in January as inflationary pressures eased following a decline in oil prices. The consumer price index eased to 8.2% on a year-over-year basis in December, from 9.2% in November. Turkey is facing a number of crosswinds. The central government budget deficit widened more than 20% year-over-year to US$9.9 billion in 2014, and according to the Turkish Ministry of Economy, the current account deficit for 2014 was US$45.8 billion, narrowing from $64.7 billion in 2013.

由于油价下跌通胀压力有所缓解,土耳其央行1月把关键基准利率下调50个基点(0.5%)至7.75%。消费者价格指数从11月的9.2%增幅,回落到12月份的8.2%。土耳其面临着一些侧风。中央政府预算赤字在2014年扩大超过20%至99亿美元,而且根据土耳其经济部,2014年经常账户赤字是458亿美元,比2013年的647亿美元有所缩小。

Brazil (Tightening)

巴西(收紧)

Brazil would probably like to see some of the deflationary pressures Japan and the ECB have experienced, as Brazil's consumer price index rose 6.4% in 2014, the fastest pace since 2011 and above the central bank's target. A significant cause was the depreciation of the Brazilian real which declined 11% against the US dollar in 2014.2 Despite sluggish economic growth in Brazil, inflation worries prompted its central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (0.5%) to 12.25% on January 21 (the third straight rate hike) to its highest level since August 2011. Consumer confidence recently reached its lowest level since 2005 in Brazil as people grew increasingly concerned about the worrisome combination of rising prices and weakness in the job market. Brazil's public sector primary fiscal account posted its first deficit in more than a decade in 2014. Lower tax revenues and higher government expenditure ahead of the presidential elections in October resulted in a deficit of US$13.8 billion, or 0.6% of GDP. In order to support the government's fiscal crisis Finance Minister Joaquim Levy announced a number of measures, including increases in taxes on fuels, credit and imports as well as the end of tax breaks on automobiles.

巴西可能希望看到日本和欧洲央行所经历的通缩压力,巴西的消费者价格指数在2014年上涨了6.4%,是自2011年来最快的速度,并高于央行的目标。一个显著的原因是巴西雷亚尔兑美元在2014年贬值了11%2。尽管经济增长缓慢,通胀的担忧促使巴西央行于1月21日把基准利率调高50个基点(0.5%)至12.25%(连续第三次加息),达到2011年8月来的最高水平。由于人们越来越担忧物价上涨和就业市场疲软带来的双重压力,巴西消费者信心最近跌至了2005年以来的最低水平。巴西公共部门的主要财政账户于2014年出现了十多年来的第一个赤字。在10月总统选举前,较低的税收收入和更高的政府支出,导致赤字达138亿美元,占GDP的0.6%。为了支持政府的财政情况,财政部部长若阿金·利维宣布了一系列措施,其中包括增加燃料税收、信贷和进口,以及结束对汽车的税收减免。

Putting It All Together: Investment Implications

这一切:对投资的启示

In my view, the easing programs put in place by the world's major central banks may have helped spur economic growth, but also have, in many respects, allowed banks to avoid making tough decisions regarding their bad investments. Meanwhile, much of the money that was intended to flow out to the marketplace has remained on the banks' balance sheets, much to chagrin of the central bankers who wanted the banks to initiate lending so their economies would revive.

在我看来,全球主要央行采取的宽松政策可能有助于刺激经济增长,但在许多方面,也允许银行避免对投资失误做出艰难的决定。同时,原本要流入市场的钱大部分留在了银行的资产负债表上,这让希望银行开始放贷以促进经济复苏的央行行长懊恼。

The low interest rates we see globally in many markets are now a disadvantage to regular bank deposit savers and pensioners, while the equity investors have generally benefitted. Many savers who have suffered with low interest rates could be hit with another problem down the road resulting from all this easing—high inflation and asset bubbles. The recent decline in the price of oil has helped provide a cushion, but we don't envision oil will remain this low long term. Additionally, there are concerns about “currency wars” breaking out amidst all the easing maneuvers, as countries battle to weaken their currencies to seek to boost export growth.

我们在全球许多市场看到的低利率,对定期银行存款储户和退休人员不利,而股票投资者普遍受益。遭受低利率冲击的储户接下来可能因为这些宽松政策遇上另一个问题——高通胀和资产泡沫。近期下跌的油价已经帮助提供了缓冲,但我们不设想油价将长期保持在低水平。此外,随着各国竞相削弱本国货币,以刺激出口增长,市场也担心各央行放宽政策爆发“货币战争”。

For now, we believe the most recent easing efforts of Japan, the ECB, China, India and other central banks should offset concerns about potential interest rate increases coming this year from the Fed and possibly others. We think central bank easing efforts will continue to provide liquidity to the markets, and expect that could help drive flows into equities globally as investors search for yield. But, we'll also be watching for any potential aftershocks.

就目前而言,我们相信日本、欧洲央行、中国、印度和其他央行的宽松政策,应该会抵消对美联储和其他央行潜在加息的担忧。央行的宽松政策将继续为市场提供流动性,并随着投资者寻求收益,期望能够推动资金流入全球股市。但是,我们也密切关注任何潜在的余震。

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重要的法律信息

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: Thompson Reuters.

1. 来源:汤森路透社

2. Source: Bloomberg.

2. 来源:彭博社

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