逆势投资巴西
A Contrarian Case for Brazil
2254字
2020-01-12 23:17
48阅读
火星译客

本帖还有中文 (简体) 、荷兰文、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

Many investors in Brazil, including us, have been a little frustrated over the past couple of years with its lack of growth and progress. Gross domestic product (GDP) in Brazil grew a mere 0.2% in 2014 (estimated), a far cry from the 7.5% it saw in 2010.1 However, we believe Brazil has all the elements in place to achieve much higher rates of growth if the political will is there.

许多在巴西的投资者,包括我们,在过去几年都对这个国家的增长和进步乏力感到有点沮丧。巴西2014年国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长仅为0.2%(估计),和2010年的7.5%相去甚远1。不过我们认为,如果有政治意愿,巴西具备实现更高增长的所有元素。

My team and I traveled to Brazil in February to take a pulse-check of the business and economic environment there. We also had a chance to enjoy some post-work festivities at Carnival, where we could see the mood of the people there, too. I'm pleased to say that while Brazil certainly still has problems to work through, I'm a little more optimistic about the investment prospects there than I was six months or so ago—and that's partly because everyone else seems so pessimistic! As the late Sir John Templeton once said, “to buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate rewards.” As contrarian-minded investors, we are looking for individual opportunities in emerging markets that others may be avoiding, but where we think potential lies—including Brazil.

我和我的团队2月前往巴西考察当地的商业和经济环境。我们也有机会在工作后享受嘉年华的庆祝活动,在那里我们也可以看到人们的心情。我很高兴地指出,虽然巴西肯定还有问题要解决,但对于投资前景,我比半年多前稍微乐观一点,而这一部分原因是因为其他人都显得那么悲观!正如已故的约翰·邓普顿爵士曾说的,“当别人都沮丧地抛售时买进,在别人都买入时卖出,这需要最大的毅力,但能获得最大的回报。”作为逆势投资者,我们正在他人避开、但我们认为有潜力的新兴市场寻找机会,包括巴西。

Some Key Advantages for Brazil

巴西的一些关键优势

  • It's the seventh largest economy in the world by GDP; sixth by population.
  • Since 2003, some 36 million people have risen out of poverty and joined the ranks of middle class.
  • Demographic trends appear favorable, with a median age of 30.7 years.
  • Brazil's unemployment rate dropped below 5% in 2014, an historical low.
  • It has a diverse economy with a wide range of natural resources.
  • Education has been seen as a top priority; literacy rate is above 90%.
  • 巴西是全球按GDP算第七大经济体;人口第六大经济体。
  • 自2003年以来,约3600万人已经摆脱了贫困,并加入中产阶级的行列。
  • 人口发展趋势有利,中位数年龄为30.7岁。
  • 2014年巴西的失业率降至5%以下,是历史最低点。
  • 它有一个多样化的经济和广泛的自然资源。
  • 教育一直被视为重中之重;识字率在90%以上。

Sources: United Nations, “Recent Macroeconomic Trends in Emerging Economies and Implications,“ February 2014; CIA World Factbook, 2010 data; World Bank, 2013 data.

资料来源:联合国,“新兴经济体的近期宏观经济走势和影响”,2014年2月;中央情报局世界概况,2010年数据;世界银行2013年数据。

The press has battered Brazil over the past year for a number of reasons, including criticisms and protests tied to last summer's FIFA World Cup (mainly related to spending and preparations), a contentious election marked by the death of one of the favorite candidates and a narrow victory for incumbent Dilma Rousseff in October, and recently, a corruption scandal involving a major oil company there. All this is an important reminder of why we believe not only in the value of a bottom-up stock selection process in emerging markets, but also in active management; because we are not tied to a benchmark we can be a bit more nimble. I would note that while we are primarily contrarian, value-driven investors, it doesn't necessarily mean we automatically buy or add to our positions in an existing stock just because the price has dropped. If we see major problems and don't see long-term value we will look elsewhere. What it does mean is that we can see beyond short-term market shocks or negative sentiment that drag down the entire market, and focus on the companies we believe will survive and prosper long term. The key is to be patient.

媒体过去一年因多个原因抨击巴西,批评和抗/议去年夏天世界杯(主要涉及开支及准备),有争议的选举:一名受欢迎的候选人死亡以及现任总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫10月的险胜,以及最近涉及大型石油公司的腐败丑闻。这一切是一个重要的提醒,就是为什么我们既相信在新兴市场自下而上选股过程的价值,又坚信主动管理的价值;因为我们不依赖一个基准,所以可以更加灵活。我要指出,虽然我们主要是逆势和价值推动的投资者,这并不一定意味着当价格下跌时,我们就会自动购买股票或增持现有的股票。如果我们发现有显著的问题,并没有看到长期价值,我们就会把注意力放到其他地方。它意味着,我们可以不被拖累整个市场的短期震荡或消极情绪所影响,并专注于我们认为在长期范围内能生存和发展的企业。这关键是要有耐心。

0215_Carnivale

The positive result of market shocks like the corruption scandal in Brazil is that greater transparency and reforms tend to follow. We have been investing in Brazil for decades and have always felt that state-owned companies in Brazil had a poor track record when it comes to corporate governance. We hope that heightened attention on corruption will help ignite management changes at the corporate level, and ignite reforms at the political level. We were encouraged when we learned how the prosecutors in Brazil have been chasing after those suspected of corruption—and taking action. We would note, of course, that Brazil isn't the only country facing this type of problem; corruption is one of the biggest problems we face as investors around the world—even in the most developed markets.

市场震荡,如巴西的腐败丑闻等,带来的积极影响是随之而来的更高的透明度和改革。我们在巴西投资了几十年,一直认为巴西国有企业的公司治理纪录糟糕。我们希望,对腐败的关注加剧将有助于点燃企业层面管理的变革,并点燃在政治层面的改革。当我们了解到巴西检察官一直在追捕那些涉嫌腐败的人并采取行动时,我们深感鼓舞。当然,巴西并不是面对这类问题的唯一国家;腐败是我们作为国际投资者面临的最大问题之一,即使是在最发达的市场。

Post-Election: Getting Down to Business

竞选后:言归正传

After winning a runoff election that was among the narrowest in Brazil's history last year, President Rousseff appointed a new economic team led by Finance Minister Joaquim Levy to help restore investor confidence; achieving a primary budget surplus of 1.2% of GDP has been set as a goal for this year. While I admit I may have been a little skeptical in the aftermath of the election that change would happen in Brazil, it does seem that its leaders have been working to improve its fiscal health with measures including tax hikes and removal of subsidies. I also think more spending cuts and a more business-friendly climate are important, too. In my view, the policies former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso adopted during his eight-year term in office, including privatization of state-owned enterprises, are a good model for Rousseff to now follow.

罗塞芙总统去年在选举上以史上最微弱的优势胜出后,她任命了一个新的经济团队,由财政部部长若阿金·利维率领,以帮助恢复投资者的信心;实现基本预算盈余占国内生产总值1.2%被设为今年的目标。我承认,虽然我对选举后巴西能否改变持怀疑态度,但看似巴西领导人一直在努力通过增税和取消补贴等政策改善财政情况。我认为,更多的开支削减和更亲商的环境也很重要。在我看来,前总统费尔南多·恩里克·卡多佐在8年任期中采取的政策,包括国有企业私有化过程,是罗塞夫可以参考的很好模式。

While results won't happen overnight, I believe in about five years or so (maybe even sooner), the investment and economic climate in Brazil should look much brighter than it has in the past couple of years for a number of reasons. First, the population in Brazil is young and getting better educated. This strong and growing consumer market is benefiting from the power of new technology, including mobile phone communications. Second, the recent investigations on corruption should bring impactful reforms in the country. I think Brazil's government will likely develop more efficient and effective policies as well as improving management at the state-owned companies. Third, Brazil has tremendous natural resources, both in minerals and agriculture. Finally, there are some terrific managers in Brazil capable of developing and growing not only local businesses but also moving into international markets.

虽然这不会在一朝一夕内见效,我相信,在大约五年时间内(甚至更早),巴西的投资和经济环境会比过去几年来得好,这包括几个原因。首先,巴西的人口非常年轻,教育程度在提高。这个强大和不断增长的消费市场正受益于新技术的力量,包括移动电话通信。第二,最近的腐败调查应该会带来有影响力的改革。巴西政府可能会制定更加有效的政策,以及改善国有企业的管理。第三,巴西拥有巨大的天然资源,无论是在矿产还是农业。最后,巴西还有一些了不起的管理者,不仅有能力发展本地企业,也能进军国际市场。

Oil's Price Drop: Headwind or Tailwind for Brazil?

油价下跌:对巴西是利是弊?

A sharp drop in oil prices over the past few months could be seen both as a headwind or a tailwind for Brazil. While lower prices result in lower oil export revenue for Brazil, the energy sector is actually a relatively small part of Brazil's economy, with oil rents representing only 3% of GDP (2012 data).2 Brazil's state-controlled oil firm actually had to import oil at world prices and resell it at a government-capped rate (below costs) in order to keep inflation artificially low and shield domestic motorists from higher global prices. With oil prices falling, it will not have to resell its imports at a loss, which could be seen as a positive. At the same time, lower oil prices squeeze exploration and production revenues.

过去几个月石油价格的急剧下跌可以说对巴西有利也有弊。虽然低油价导致较低的石油出口收入,但能源领域实际上是巴西经济的一小部分,石油租金只占GDP的3%(2012年数据)2。巴西国家控制的石油公司其实需要以国际价格进口石油,并以受政府管制的价格(低于成本)转售出去,以人为压低通货膨胀,让国内驾车人士免受全球油价的冲击。随着石油价格下跌,石油公司也不会亏本,这可以说是积极的影响。与此同时,油价下跌冲击了勘探和生产收入。

Lower oil prices could help spur greater economic growth generally in a number of countries that are net oil importers (including China and the United States), boosting consumer spending power and also potential demand for other products that Brazil offers. While exports accounted for less than 15% of GDP in total in 2013,3 Brazil has a diverse list of key industrial and agricultural commodities that are in demand around the world, including not only oil but also soybeans, iron ore and sugar. In my view, if global growth improves as anticipated in 2016 by various forecasters, the price of a number of now-depressed raw materials will likely rebound and could boost the Brazilian economy; hopefully with other reform efforts in Brazil that should help drive foreign investment and instill confidence.

较低的油价将有助于刺激多个净石油进口国(包括中国和美国)的经济增长,提升消费者的消费能力,巴西提供的其他产品的潜在需求可能会增长。尽管2013年出口占GDP的总量不到15%3,但巴西拥有广泛的主要产业和农产品,世界各地对它们的需求强劲,不仅包括石油还包括大豆、铁矿石和糖。在我看来,如果如不同机构的预计一样,2016年全球经济增长改善,多个原材料的价格将有可能出现反弹,并可能提振巴西经济;希望巴西的其他改革努力也有助于推动外国投资和灌输信心。

When we look at markets generally and think about where we should be going, as mentioned, we like to look at those places that are unpopular. And probably the most unpopular place in Latin America now besides Argentina and Venezuela would be Brazil. So in our minds, it probably deserves a closer look, particularly the consumer-oriented sectors that have seen slower earnings as per-capita incomes and consumer spending has stagnated. We are also looking at Brazil's banking sector right now which may offer good opportunities in the future.

当我们审视市场,考虑应该去哪里投资时,如之前提到的,我们喜欢研究那些不受欢迎的地区。目前拉丁美洲最不受欢迎的地方,除了阿根廷和委内瑞拉,大概就是巴西了。因此,我们认为它可能值得仔细看看,尤其是由于人均收入和消费支出处于停滞状态使得盈利较慢的消费者行业。我们也在研究巴西的银行业,这可能会在未来提供良好的机会。

For now, consumer spending remains a question mark, spending power is down and there is talk Brazil could fall into recession. Sentiment is quite bad right now, the stock market has been weak, and most business people we have spoken with in Brazil said this year would likely be quite challenging. Despite this, I'd like to point to a few reasons why investors should consider Brazil. Brazil has a vibrant, huge economy that we believe is destined to grow in the future despite the political and reform problems. Brazil's people are more vocal and activist-oriented, and we don't foresee the country as likely to head down the path of Argentina or Venezuela. Therefore, at this time we are actively looking to potentially increase our holdings in the country, particularly in world-class companies that previously were too expensive as well as others that we think have good prospects and appear to have solid management and little or no debt.

就目前而言,消费者支出仍是一个问号,消费能力下降,有传闻说巴西可能陷入衰退。现在情绪相当糟糕,股市一直疲软,我们在巴西所接触的大多数商务人士表示,今年很可能相当具有挑战性。尽管这样,我想指出几个投资者应考虑巴西的原因。巴西拥有一个朝气蓬勃、庞大的经济体,尽管有政治改革问题,我们相信巴西经济注定会在未来取得增长。巴西的人们更善于发表意见和积极主动,我们预见巴西可能不会走上阿根廷和委内瑞拉的道路。因此,在这个时候,我们在积极寻求增加巴西的投资,特别是以前太昂贵的世界级企业,以及我们认为有很好前景、扎实的管理、负债很少或没有负债的其他公司。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: Central Bank of Brazil, December 2014.

1. 来源:巴西中央银行,2014年12月。

2. Source: The World Bank, 2012 data. Oil rents are the difference between the value of crude oil production at world prices and total costs of production.

2. 来源:世界银行2012年数据。石油租金是世界价格原油产出的价值和生产总成本之间的差额。

3. Source: The World Bank, 2013 data. Exports of goods and services (12.6% of GDP).

3. 来源:世界银行2013年数据。产品和服务出口(GDP的12.6%)。

0 条评论
评论不能为空