Trade war means seismic shifts for chemicals
贸易战对化工行业是灾难性的剧变
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2018-09-25 14:45
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As US President Donald Trump ratchets up his tariffs against China, it looks increasingly like a full-blown trade war is in the offing.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)针对中国的关税逐步升级,这看起来越来越像全面贸易战即将到来。

His decision to put “America First” signals a move away from the globalisation philosophy that has dominated the global economy since the Second World War. Replacing it is a retreat into a focus on individual nations and regions which has major implications for the chemical industry.

他的决定“美国优先”——这一信号表明美国将抛弃自二战以来曾主宰全球经济的全球化理念。取而代之的是撤退到强调本国和本地区,这对化工行业来说影响重大。

With import tariffs going up between major economies and likely to increase in scope and intensity, chemical CEOs will need to focus on ensuring they have production within their key markets. Relying on a single plant to serve the global market may no longer make business sense if a 25% tariff will be slapped onto its exports.

随着主要经济体之间进口关税的上升,很有可能范围扩大化且力度空前化,化学公司的首席执行官们将需聚焦于确保他们在主要市场内拥有生产基地。如果25%的关税将施加于其出口产品,则依赖于一个工厂服务全球市场也许不再具有商业意义。

FROM FEEDSTOCKS TO MARKET ACCESS

从原料到市场准入

Close proximity to cheap feedstocks has been a key driver in plant location decisions for many years. Now unfettered market access may become more of a factor in decision-making.

非常接近便宜的原料库存是多年来工厂位置决定的一个关键驱动因素。目前,自由市场准入可能将日益成为决策的一个因素。

Indeed this change is happening already. Look at BASF’s decision this week to choose China for its largest-ever investment – a $10bn verbund site in Guangdong province. The company had been expected to choose the US for its largest investment – a methanol-to-propylene plant based on propane from shale gas. By prioritising China (without advantaged feedstocks), BASF shows how its strategy has shifted.

实际上,变化已经发生。如,巴斯夫本周决定选择中国开展其史上最大投资,建设高度一体化基地,项目投资总额预计将达到100亿美元,落户于广东省。该公司原本计划将其最大投资 MTP 装置(基于页岩气的丙烷)落户美国。通过目标优选中国(无得天独厚的原料),巴斯夫显示了其策略的转变。

Local production in China has also become a priority for US electric carmaker Tesla, which this week also chose China over the US as the location for a world-scale factory. China is a huge market for electric vehicles which Tesla will now be able to access on equal terms to local competitors. The latest round of tariffs had forced the company to raise the price of its US-made exports to China by $20,000 per vehicle.

在中国本地化生产也成为美国电动汽车制造商特斯拉(Tesla)的优先事项,本周,其选择中国而非美国落户其世界级规模的工厂。中国拥有巨大的电动汽车市场,现在,特斯拉在准入市场方面与本地竞争者具有平等的地位。最新一轮关税迫使该公司美国造汽车出口到中国的价格提升幅度达2万美元/辆。

CHINA JVS SWITCH TO WHOLLY-OWNED

与中国合资转向独资

China is seizing the opportunity the trade war has brought by implementing rules which allow large investments like these to be 100% foreign-owned. BASF’s new verbund complex will be owned and operated by BASF and Tesla’s new plant will also be independent. Previously local joint venture partners were required, such as the BASF-YPC JV with Sinopec at its Nanjing verbund site.

中国正在抓住贸易战争带来的机会,制定规则允许此类大型投资可以100%的外商独资。巴斯夫的新一体化基地将由巴斯夫拥有和管理;特斯拉的新工厂也将由其独立操控。而以往此类项目则要求有当地合资伙伴,如在南京一体化基地与中石化合资成立了扬子石化-巴斯夫有限责任公司。

Opinions vary widely about the impact of the trade war on US shale-based start-ups, some of which are 100% export-oriented. The impending Chinese tariffs against the US include low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear LDPE (LLDPE).

关于贸易战对美国基于页岩气的新兴公司(一些是100%出口型公司)之影响,人们意见分歧很大。中国对美国即将施加的关税包括低密度聚乙烯(LDPE)和线性低密度聚乙烯(LLDPE)。

Houston-based ICIS senior consultant James Ray points out that US ethane-sourced PE producers are so cost-advantaged they could absorb the 25% tariff on their products exported to China and still be profitable. He says the tariffs will impede additional US PE capacity additions, but only temporarily. The ICIS Supply and Demand Database forecasts that as the new capacities come on line, US LDPE exports will increase from 35% of production in 2017 to reach 56% in 2020. For LLDPE the figure goes from 45.5% in 2017 to 65% in 2020.

休斯敦的 ICIS 资深顾问 James Ray 指出,采购美国乙烷的 PE 生产商具有得天独厚的成本优势,他们可以吸收出口到中国的产品加征25%关税,仍然可以盈利。他说,关税将阻碍美国更多 PE 产能的增加,但只是暂时情况。ICIS 供求数据库预测随着新产能上线,美国的 LDPE 产能将由2017的35%增加到2020年的56%。对于 LLDPE,这一数字将由2017年的45.5% 上升到2020年的65%。

According to Ray, with US LDPE and LLDPE exports accounting for only 12% and 17% of global exports respectively, “it would seem they could easily find another home for this production.” Exports to China only accounted for 6.9% of US LDPE production in 2017 while the figure for LLDPE was just 0.4%.

根据 Ray 报告,美国 LDPE 和 LLDPE 出口分别占全球出口的12%和17%,“似乎他们能够很容易为他们的生产找到另一个家。” 2017年出口到中国的该项产品仅占美国 LDPE 生产的6.9%,而 LLDPE 仅为0.4%。

Ray believes the current tariff moves by Trump are simply an attempt to redress the current trade imbalance between the US and China. The US has run a trade deficit with China at least since 1985 with the figure rising to over $300bn/year since 2012.

Ray 认为特朗普目前的关税政策是为了纠正美国和中国之间目前的贸易不平衡。自1985年以来,美国一直与中国存在贸易逆差;自2012年以来,这一数字每年上升达到超过3000亿美元。

ICIS consultant John Richardson points out that China’s proposed $50bn of tariffs against the US includes a 25% duty on US exports of ethane. At stake could be the viability of 11 Chinese cracker projects that would rely on imports of US ethane. He believes China may invest more in Iran to access alternative feedstocks.

ICIS 顾问 John Richardson 指出,中国向美国提出500亿美元的关税,包括对美国出口的乙烷加征25%的关税。11个中国裂化器项目依赖美国乙烷的出口,关税危机其生存。他认为,中国可以在伊朗进行更多的投资,以获得替代原料。

GLOBAL PE PRICE WAR

全球 PE 价格战

International eChem chairman Paul Hodges believes the tariffs could lead to a global PE price war, as the wave of new US production will be sent to new markets, most likely Europe.

咨询公司 International eChem 主席 Paul Hodges 认为,关税可能会导致全球 PE 价格战,因为美国新生产将波及新市场,最有可能是欧洲。

“This won’t just be a US problem, because they will still want to move their product – it has got to come to Europe, as there is no surplus demand in Asia, the Middle East or Latin America.” The consultant added that this first wave of tariffs were a wake-up call to those who thought globalisation was going to continue as it did in the past. “We have reached a tipping point where we have to expect that trade wars are more rather than less likely,” Hodges said.

“这不会只是美国的问题,因为他们仍希望也必将转移他们的产品至欧洲,因为在亚洲、中东或拉丁美洲已没有多余的需求。” 顾问又补充说,这些关税的第一波是唤醒那些认为像过去那样全球化会持续进行的人们。“我们已经达到了一个临界点,我们预计贸易战将愈演愈烈” Hodges 如是说。

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