尼日利亚前进的新道路?
A New Way Forward for Nigeria?
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2020-01-11 23:18
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A couple of years ago, many investors were optimistic about Nigeria and the stock market was booming, buoyed by strong economic growth and government reforms to improve the country. However, by 2014, the mood soured amid a series of unfortunate events, including the terrorist acts of Boko Haram, an Ebola outbreak and the weakening price of oil, which is the major source of income for the government and has a big impact on the economy. Despite these challenges, we continue to pursue long-term investments in Nigeria for a number of reasons. Not only is Nigeria Africa's largest economy and a major consumer market, but the outcome of Nigeria's presidential election in March proved its people are ready for change—hopefully for the better.

几年前,许多投资者都看好尼日利亚,在强劲的经济增长和政府改革的提振下,其股市蓬勃发展。然而,到2014年,由于一系列的不幸事件,其中包括博科圣地的恐怖主义行为、埃博拉病毒爆发和石油价格疲软(石油是政府收入的主要来源),投资者情绪恶化了,这对经济影响重大。尽管存在这些挑战,我们继续在尼日利亚追求长期投资,这有几个原因。尼日利亚不仅是非洲最大的经济体和主要消费市场,而且该国3月的总统选举结果证明了尼日利亚人为变革准备就绪,希望朝着好的方向改变。

After a delay, Nigeria's presidential election took place in March in a relatively peaceful environment. After lots of active and noisy election campaigning, the results showed that the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan, was losing, and he conceded defeat to former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari has claimed a commitment to democracy and a new way forward for Nigeria, although I think his first order of business will be to bring stability to the country. The fact that he was elected democratically and had run unsuccessfully in 2003, 2007 and 2011 seems to be an indication that he would be more inclined to favor the democratic process, although we certainly can't know what might happen in the future; we must remember that he has a military background and participated in a military coup that brought him to a short-lived presidency in 1983. We do feel his military experience should help him battle terrorism and corruption in Nigeria, so in that sense the election results seem positive.

尼日利亚总统大选在一些延期后,于3月份进行,环境相对和平。在大量活跃和嘈杂的竞选活动后,现任总统古德勒克·乔纳森在选举中落败,他承认败给了前军事统治者穆罕穆杜·布哈里。布哈里宣称将致力于尼日利亚的民主和新的前进道路,但我认为他的首要任务将是给国家带来稳定。他是经过民主选举当选的,之前在2003年、2007年和2011年都没有竞选成功,似乎表明他会更倾向于赞成民主进程,但我们肯定无法知道在未来可能发生的事情;我们必须记住,他有军事背景,并参加过军事政变,让他在1983年短暂当上总统。不过我们觉得他的军事经验应该能帮助他对抗尼日利亚的恐怖主义和腐败,因此选举结果看似积极。

The election outcome was not surprising to me, because it was clear that the general population was unhappy with the current situation in the country. Nigeria's stock market reacted positively to the election results right after they were announced, indicating that many investors may now feel new hope that there could be change for the better.

选举结果并不令我感到诧异,因为很明显的,一般人不满该国当前的局势。尼日利亚股市对选举结果反应积极,这表明许多投资者现在可能觉得尼日利亚出现新的希望,向好的方向转变。

Nigeria clearly has a compelling growth story, but has faced a number of challenges in recent times. One of its biggest current challenges is a new lower oil price environment, which means that the government will likely have problems funding development and must find new sources of income. Hopefully, this situation will lead to much-needed reforms and a crackdown on corruption to unlock such income. (Last year, the head of the central bank asked why US$20 billion was missing from the oil fund accounts.) While lower prices will likely have an adverse impact on Nigeria's fiscal situation and foreign reserves, government debt is only 13% of gross domestic product (GDP).1 Planned spending cuts and efforts to improve tax collection in the 2015 budget should mean the government will unlikely face major funding issues this year. While important to the economy—representing the largest part of government income—the oil and gas sector actually equates to less than 15% of Nigeria's total GDP.2 Nevertheless, the oil price decline has prompted the government to reduce its 2015 GDP growth forecast to 5.5% (down from an estimated 6.23% in 2014); GDP growth still looks to remain strong this year.3

尼日利亚显然拥有令人信服的增长故事,但近期也面对了一系列的挑战。它当前最大的一个挑战是低油价环境,这意味着政府为未来发展提供资金可能有问题,必须寻找新的收入来源。但愿这个情况会导致急需的改革和腐败打击,来释放这样的收入。(去年,央行的负责人问及为何石油基金账户中丢失了200亿美元。)虽然较低的油价将可能对尼日利亚的财政状况和外汇储备带来不利影响,政府债务只占国内生产总值(GDP)的13%[1]。2015年财政预算案中削减开支和努力提高税收的计划,应该意味着政府今年将不会面对重大的资金短缺问题。虽然石油与天然气行业占政府收入的最大比重,对经济非常重要,但实际上该行业占尼日利亚GDP的比例不到15%[2]。尽管如此,油价下跌已促使政府把2015年的GDP增​​长预测下调至5.5%(从2014年的估计6.23%);今年GDP的增长看起来仍然保持强劲[3]

Nigeria is a big country, and with privatization and government reform efforts, I still believe there is a good chance of strong growth going forward, even if oil prices don't rebound significantly from today's levels.

尼日利亚是个大国,有了私有化和政府的改革努力,即使油价不从目前水平显著回升,我还是相信未来它会有强劲增长的好机会。

There are significant challenges ahead, but we believe the positives outweigh the negatives and think it's a good time to invest in Nigeria—if we are patient and selective. We are particularly interested in opportunities outside the energy sector in consumer products as well in financial services. Last year, the Nigerian financial sector did not perform well mainly due to concerns about the suspension of the central bank governor (after he brought up the aforementioned missing funds to Goodluck Jonathan), and social issues. We do not believe the new government will disrupt the independence of the central bank. The newly appointed governor has a solid technical background. Besides, he has been working with the central bank for many years. We believe recent central bank liquidity-tightening measures are likely temporary and aimed against inflationary pressures. Also, we think these events are unlikely to change the long-term fundamentals and positive outlook for banks—the people of Nigeria remain “under-banked” compared to other emerging and developed markets, and strong local banks are likely to be prime beneficiaries of long-term economic growth.

接下来的道路上有显著的挑战,但积极因素大于负面因素,并认为这是投资于尼日利亚的好时机,如果我们有耐心和选择性。我们对能源业以外消费类产品以及金融服务的机会特别感兴趣。去年,尼日利亚金融业的表现不佳,主要是因为央行行长在向古德勒克·乔纳森提出上述资金缺失后职务被暂停,以及一些社会问题。我们认为新政府将不会破坏央行的独立性。新任命的行长拥有雄厚的技术背景。此外,他多年来一直与央行合作。我们认为近期央行流动性紧缩的措施可能是暂时的,目的是应对通胀压力。此外,这些事件是不会改变银行的长期基本面和积极的展望,相对于其他新兴市场和发达市场,尼日利亚人的银行使用率依然偏低,强大的本地银行可能成为长期经济增长的主要受惠者。

The long-term, fundamental case for Nigeria looks strong to us for several reasons:

我们认为尼日利亚的长期和基本展望强劲,有如下原因:

• Nigeria boasts one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, with GDP growth rates above 6% every year since 2003.4

•尼日利亚是全球增长最快的经济体之一,自2003年以来国内生产总值每年的增长率在6%以上[4]

• Home to more than 170 million people, Nigeria is the largest country in Africa by population, and among the top 10 most populous countries globally. Additionally, the population is relatively young, with a median age of just over 18.5

•尼日利亚的人口超过1.7亿,是非洲人口最多的国家,并跻身全球人口最多的前10位。此外,人口相对年轻,中位数年龄刚过18岁[5]

• It is important to note that Nigeria exports more than 100 different non-oil commodities as well as a wide variety of finished or semi-finished manufactured products to countries around the world.6 While oil remains the dominant export, we also see many potential opportunities beyond the energy sector.

•值得注意的是,尼日利亚出口超过100种不同的非石油大宗商品、以及各种各样的成品或半成品制造产品到世界各国[6]。虽然石油仍然占出口的主导地位,我们也看到,在能源领域外存在着许多潜在的机会。

We believe efforts toward privatization and investment in areas such as mining, agriculture, finance and manufacturing to diversify the country's dependence on the oil sector could bear fruit in the longer term. Nigeria benefits from a diverse range of potential growth drivers—for example, many people outside Africa may not know that the Nigerian movie industry, “Nollywood,” generates nearly $600 million a year and employs more than a million people.7 While a lower oil-price environment could prove a short-term test, perhaps the biggest long-term challenge for Nigeria going forward is to develop government leadership that will be intent on economic development and utilizing the country's resources to develop infrastructure—roads, railroads, electric power, sewerage, water, and so on. We believe this would establish a platform for the growth of new enterprises and likely lead to more employment.

我们相信,私有化和投资采矿、农业、金融和制造业方面的努力,以减少国家对石油领域的依赖,能在更长远的期间带来成果。尼日利亚拥有广泛的潜在增长引擎,例如,非洲以外的许多人可能不知道,尼日利亚的电影业“诺莱坞”,每年产值近6亿美元,从业人员超过100万人[7]。而低油价的环境可以是一个短期测试,尼日利亚接下来最大的长期挑战,也许是建立一个政府领导层,努力致力于经济发展和利用国家的资源来发展基础设施,如公路、铁路电力、污水、水等等。我们相信,这将为新企业的发展建立一个平台,并有可能带来更多的就业机会。

In our view, Nigeria still remains among the most attractive investment destinations within frontier markets and we are hopeful its new leadership will pave the way forward toward a brighter future.

在我们看来,尼日利亚仍然是前沿市场中最具吸引力的投资目的地之一,我们希望新的领导人将铺平前进的道路,走向更光明的未来。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: International Monetary Fund, “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2014 Article IV Consultation with Nigeria,” March 2015 press release. (Figure based on 2013 data.)

[1] 来源:国际货币基金组织,“IMF执行董事会与尼日利亚总结2014年第四条磋商”,2015年3月新闻稿。(数字以2013年数据为根据。)

2. Source: World Bank, 2012 Data; International Monetary Fund, 2014 data.

[2] 来源:世界银行,2012年数据;国际货币基金组织,2014年数据。

3. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria, January 2015. There is no assurance that any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[3] 来源:尼日利亚国家统计局,2015年1月。没有保证任何估计或预测会实现。

4. Source: The World Bank, GDP Growth (annual %), World Development Indicators.

[4] 来源:世界银行,GDP增长(年增长率%),世界发展指标。

5. Source: CIA World Factbook, 2014 estimate.

[5] 来源:中央情报局世界概况,2014年估计。

6. Source: Nigerian Export Promotion Council.

[6] 来源:尼日利亚出口促进委员会。

7. Source: United Nations Africa Renewal, “Nigeria's Film Industry: a Potential Gold Mine?” May 2013.

[7] 来源:联合国非洲复兴,“尼日利亚的电影产业:一个潜在的金矿?”2013年5月。

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