为罗马尼亚庆贺
Celebrating Romania
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2020-01-10 21:48
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火星译客

Ten years ago, Fondul Proprietatea (Fondul) was established to compensate Romanians whose properties were confiscated by the former communist government, and we were selected as its investment manager in September 2010. My colleague Grzegorz Konieczny, based in Bucharest, spearheaded the effort to list Fondul on the Bucharest Stock Exchange in 2011, and now Fondul is making its debut on the London Stock Exchange on April 29. In honor of the occasion, I've asked Greg to share his thoughts on investing in Romania today, and the exciting changes that have taken place there in the past few years.

十年前,Fondul Proprietatea(Fondul)成立了,以弥补资产被前共产主义政府没收的罗马尼亚人,而我们于2010年9月被选中作为其投资经理。我在布加勒斯特的同事Grzegorz Konieczny,负责带领Fondul于2011年在布加勒斯特证券交易所上市,如今Fondul于4月29日在伦敦证券交易所挂牌。趁这个时机,我让Greg来分享一下他对如今投资罗马尼亚的看法,谈谈那里过去几年令人兴奋的变化。

这篇文章还有中文 (简体) 、荷兰文、法文、德文、西班牙文、波兰文版 

Romania Macroeconomic Outlook

罗马尼亚宏观经济展望

Romania's economic growth outpaced most of Europe last year, and we believe the Romanian economy can continue to grow at a similar or even higher pace than the 2.8% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) seen in 2014.1 Romania has access to European Union (EU) structural funds, which are one of the main EU instruments designed to sustain economic growth while reducing disparities between regions in the EU. We think Romania's growth going forward is largely dependent on an increase in EU funds absorption, which can provide a significant source of financing for current and future projects, as well as for government spending on much-needed infrastructure projects.

去年罗马尼亚的经济增长超过了欧洲大部分地区,2014年国内生产总值增长2.8%,我们相信罗马尼亚经济能够继续以相似或更快的速度增长[1]。罗马尼亚已获得欧盟的结构基金,这是为了维持经济增长并减小欧盟区域之间差距的主要欧盟工具之一。我们认为,罗马尼亚的经济增长展望在很大程度上取决于对欧盟资金的吸收增加,从而为目前和未来项目提供显著的融资来源,以及为急需的基础设施项目提供政府开支。

Various forecasts for Romania currently look bright. The World Bank estimates Romania's economy will grow on average by 3% per year in the period 2015 – 2017, driven by strong domestic demand).2 We think a new loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should also aid economic growth in Romania by increasing the country's financial stability, while at the same time providing oversight with regard to the implementation of structural reforms. Romania has undertaken a major fiscal adjustment, mainly through cutting expenditure and reducing some taxes. value-added-tax (VAT) for all food items, as well as non-alcoholic beverages, will be lowered from 24% to 9% starting on June 1, 2015, the prime minister announced in early April 2015. In addition, VAT for all other products will be lowered from 24% to 20% on January 1, 2016.

对罗马尼亚的各种预测目前看来乐观。据世界银行估计,在强劲的国内需求推动下,罗马尼亚经济将在2015年至 2017年期间平均每年增长3%[2]。我们认为,与国际货币基金组织(IMF)的新贷款协议也会增强国家的财政稳定,同时提供结构性改革实施方面的监督,从而有助于罗马尼亚的经济增长。罗马尼亚进行了重大的财政调整,主要通过削减支出和减少一些税收。总理在2015年4月初宣布,所有食品和非酒精饮料的增值税(VAT),将由24%下调至9%,从2015年6月1日起生效。此外,所有其他产品的增值税将从24%下调至20%,从2016年1月1日起生效。

Earlier this month, ratings agency Standard & Poor's confirmed Romania's ratings for long- and short-term foreign debt to BBB-/A-3 (the lowest investment-grade rating), with a stable perspective.3 S&P also estimates that Romania's economy could grow on average by nearly 3% per year in the period 2015–2018, driven by the increase of internal consumption. While Romania's public debt-to-GDP has increased significantly since 2006-2007, it is still at a relatively moderate level (around 40%).4 Domestic consumption has picked up significantly and we have seen strong export growth in Romania. We believe consumption growth looks strong in 2015, but investments are still lagging behind. However, like economic growth in general, investments could be partially boosted by a better absorption of EU funds. Additionally, Romania registered a current account surplus of €285 million in the first two months of 2015, compared to a current account deficit of  €201 million in the same period of 2014.5 We also view the Romanian government's continued fight against corruption, which has intensified in recent months, as a positive factor for investors.

本月初,评级机构标准普尔确认罗马尼亚的长期和短期外币债券评级为BBB-/ A-3(最低的投资级评级),具有稳定的展望[3]。标普还估计,在内部消费增长的带动下,罗马尼亚的经济可能在2015年至2018年期间以平均每年近3%的速度增长。虽然罗马尼亚的公共债务占国内生产总值的比例自2006年和2007年来显著增加了,但仍然处于相对温和的水平(40%左右)[4]。国内消费回升显著,出口增长强劲。我们认为,2015年的消费增长看似强劲,但投资仍然落后。然而,像经济增长一样,更好地吸收欧盟资金可以推动投资。此外,罗马尼亚在2015年前两个月取得了2.85亿欧元的经常账户盈余,去年同期为2.01亿欧元[5]。我们也认为,罗马尼亚政府的持续反腐败斗争在最近几个月愈演愈烈,对投资者来说是个积极因素。

Progress on Privatizations

私有化进程

We are encouraged by Romania's privatization efforts, including the listing of several key State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) on the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) in the energy sector recently. Some of these companies have also been listed through global depository receipts (GDRs) on the London Stock Exchange. There is also an anticipated pipeline of initial public offerings (IPOs) ahead, including a large hydro power producer in Romania. Romania is currently considered a frontier market by index provider MSCI, but officials in Romania seem determined to implement the changes required to be upgraded to emerging market status; we are encouraged by the Romanian government's efforts toward further improving its capital markets. As such, there are several ongoing efforts led by the government, the local stock exchange, the market regulator and several key stakeholders in the Romanian capital market to accelerate capital market development. One particular initiative in this regard aims to identify and remove eight barriers that prevent the development of capital markets. Coupled with another initiative launched by the market regulator, the Financial Supervisory Authority, these programs aim to facilitate investor access to Romania.

我们为罗马尼亚的私有化努力感到鼓舞,包括最近能源领域几个主要国有企业在布加勒斯特证券交易所上市。其中一些公司也已经通过全球存托凭证在伦敦证券交易所上市。接下来也预期有一些IPO,包括罗马尼亚的一家大型水电生产商。指数提供商MSCI目前把罗马尼亚归类为前沿市场,但罗马尼亚官员似乎下定决心要实施改变,来升级到新兴市场的地位;我们为罗马尼亚政府进一步改善资本市场的努力感到鼓舞。罗马尼亚政府、当地证券交易所、市场监管机构和几个关键利益相关者正携手进行几个项目,加快资本市场的发展。这方面的一个特别举措旨在识别并消除八个阻止资本市场发展的屏障。再加上市场监管机构金融监管局推出的又一举措,这些方案旨在便于投资者进入罗马尼亚。

Romania has implemented a highly ambitious corporate governance code for SOEs, which has generated positive outcomes for various companies, including improved financial performance, operational efficiency and competitiveness, higher transparency, and accountability of general managers and boards. In our view, efforts to strengthen corporate governance need to be continued, given that it plays a major role in enhancing SOE performance and reassuring potential investors that SOEs are on an irreversible restructuring path. SOEs are a significant part of the Romanian economy, and we believe the process of improving the efficiency and profitability of the SOEs must continue. We see the implementation of corporate governance standards as a step in the right direction, but there is still a lot to be done in terms of much-needed improvements for independent boards, professional managers and listings.

罗马尼亚为国有企业实施了雄心勃勃的公司治理规范,已对不同的公司产生了不同的积极成果,包括财务业绩、运营效率和竞争力的改善、透明度以及总经理和董事会责任性的提高。我们认为,罗马尼亚要继续努力加强公司治理,因为它扮演了重要的角色,能提高国有企业的业绩,向潜在投资者保证国有企业走上了不可逆转的重组道路。国有企业是罗马尼亚经济重要的一部分,我们相信,罗马尼亚要继续提高国有企业的效率和盈利能力。实施公司治理标准,是朝正确方向迈出的一步,但仍有很多要做,包括独立董事会、职业经理人与上市方面继续改进。

Foreign Investments and Capital Markets

外商投资和资本市场

Foreign direct investment is on the rise in Romania, increasing by 45% year-on-year to €409 million in the first two months of 2015, according to Romania's Central Bank (BNR).6 In our view, structural reforms, including a push for more fiscal predictability, coupled with a new IMF loan agreement, should likely boost investor confidence in Romania. In addition, we believe the efforts undertaken to facilitate investor access to the local capital market, which has been quite difficult in the past, are positive steps towards attracting more foreign investments in Romania. We think development of the capital market and higher liquidity of the BVB would be beneficial for attracting more foreign investors. We also see predictability in fiscal policy as very important to stimulate investments; enacting new legislation or changing existing legislation through emergency government ordinances should be avoided. We believe all changes should go through the Parliament and public consultation should be a key component of the legislative process.

罗马尼亚的外商直接投资在上升,根据罗马尼亚央行(BNR)的数据,2015年的前两个月同比增长45%至4.09亿欧元[6]。我们认为,结构性的改革,包括促进财政可预测性,再加上新的国际货币基金组织贷款协议,应该会提振投资者对罗马尼亚的信心。此外,促进投资进入以往比较困难的当地资本市场的努力,是吸引更多外国投资进入罗马尼亚的积极举措。资本市场的发展和布加勒斯特证券交易所的流通性增加,将有利于吸引更多的外国投资者。财政政策的可预测性也非常重要,能刺激投资;罗马尼亚应尽量避免通过政府紧急法令颁布新的法律或者改变现有立法。我们相信,所有的变化应该通过议会,公众咨询应是立法过程中的一个关键部分。

Investment Opportunities—and Risks

投资机会和风险

Romanian equities generally appear undervalued to us when compared with other countries in the region. For example, as of March 2015, the price-earnings (P/E) ratio for the BET Index Romania was 9.9, while it was 10.1 for the XU100 Index in Turkey,  14.4 for the WIG Index in Poland, and 13.6 for the BUX Index in Hungary.7 And, we think dividend yields on Romanian equities have also been attractive. We continue to see good potential opportunities in the energy and infrastructure sectors in Romania. Key drivers should be further privatizations (including IPOs of SOEs) that could result in efficiency improvements, better corporate governance, and improved absorption of EU funds allocated to Romania. In addition, we see further growth in domestic consumption amid general economic improvement that should also speed up a recovery in the banking sector.

对我们来说,罗马尼亚股票和区域其他国家相比整体上被低估。例如,截至2015年3月,罗马尼亚BET指数的市盈率(P/E)为9.9倍,而土耳其XU100指数的是10.1倍,波兰的WIG指数市盈率是14.4倍,匈牙利BUX指数的是13.6倍[7]。而且我们认为,罗马尼亚股票的股息收益率也具有吸引力。我们继续在罗马尼亚的能源和基础设施领域看到良好的潜在机会,主要驱动因素包括进一步的私有化(包括国有企业的首次公开募股)可能带来效率的提高、公司治理的改善,并更好地吸收欧盟分配给罗马尼亚的资金。此外,随着整体经济情况改善,国内消费将取得增长,这应该会加快银行业的复苏。

Risks of investing in Romania include political volatility, lack of a new agreement with IMF, delays in implementing structural reforms and low absorption of EU funds. Lack of predictability also remains a key issue, discouraging many investors. An unannounced tax on special constructions, which greatly reduced the profit margin of energy sector companies, was introduced shortly after the IPO of one of these companies. In addition, the regulated rate of return of electricity distributors was also reduced only months after the IPO of the largest distributor and supplier of electricity in Romania.

投资罗马尼亚的风险包括政治动荡、缺乏与国际货币基金组织达成新的协议、实施结构性改革的延迟、以及欧盟资金的低吸收率。缺乏可预测性仍然是个主要问题,阻碍了许多投资者。在一家能源领域公司上市后不久,一项未经宣布的特殊建筑税出台,这大大降低了能源公司的利润率。此外,罗马尼亚最大的电力经销商和供应商上市几个月后,电力经销商的管制回报率也有所降低。

Romania and the Euro

罗马尼亚和欧元

Romania's goal of adopting the euro by 2019 may be achievable in our view, provided that the economic growth of the country continues in a steady pace and it can continue to improve in key areas. In order to assess a country's preparedness to adopt the euro, several transition indicators may be used, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). These include large scale privatization, small scale privatization, governance and enterprise restructuring, price liberalization, trade and forex system and competition policy. Compared with the situation of other countries at the time of euro adoption, such as Slovakia (2009), Estonia (2011), Latvia (2014) and Lithuania (2015), we think Romania still needs to make significant improvements, particularly in terms of governance and enterprise restructuring, as well as competition policy. We believe progress in these areas may unlock Romania's growth potential and ensure better preparedness for the goal of euro adoption by 2019.

我们认为,罗马尼亚在2019年之前采用欧元的目标是可以达到的,只要该国的经济继续稳步增长,并在一些关键领域继续改进。根据欧洲重建和发展银行(EBRD),评估一个国家是否准备好采用欧元,可使用几个过渡性指标。这些措施包括大规模私有化、小规模私有化、治理和企业重组、价格开放、贸易和外汇体制以及竞争政策。与其他国家在采用欧元时的情况相比,如斯洛伐克(2009年)、爱沙尼亚(2011年)、拉脱维亚(2014年)和立陶宛(2015年),我们认为罗马尼亚仍然需要做出显著的改善,特别是在治理和企业重组以及竞争政策方面。我们相信,在这些领域的进展会释放出罗马尼亚的增长潜力,并确保罗马尼亚为在2019年前采用欧元做好准备。

QE and Romania

量化宽松和罗马尼亚

The European Central Bank's (ECB) quantitative easing (QE) program highlights the central bank's desire to inject liquidity into the markets, and this could reflect positively on the Romanian capital market, in our view. In addition, the QE program offers the BNR more maneuvering space with regards to monetary easing; Romania's central bank cut its key policy rate to a record low of 2% in March. At the same time, we think the downward pressure exerted as a result of the ECB's QE program on interest rates for deposits and state bonds could further stimulate foreign investments and consumption.

 欧洲央行的量化宽松计划凸显了央行为市场注入资金的意愿,我们认为,这可能对罗马尼亚资本市场产生积极的影响。 此外,量化宽松政策为罗马尼亚央行提供了更多货币宽松的回旋空间;罗马尼亚央行3月把关键政策利率调低至2%的历史低点。与此同时,欧洲央行的量化宽松政策对存款和政府债券利率所造成的下行压力,可能会进一步刺激外国投资和消费。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: NSI Romania www.insse.ro, April 2015.

[1] 来源:罗马尼亚国家统计局www.insse.ro, 2015年4月。

2. Source: World Bank. There is no assurance that any forecast will be realized.

[2] 来源:世界银行。没有保证任何预测会实现。

3. Source: Standard & Poor’s, February 2015. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[3] 来源:标准普尔,2015年2月。参见www.franklintempletondatasources.com了解数据提供商的额外信息。

4. Source: Eurostat, 2014.

[4] 来源:欧盟统计局,2014年。

5. Source: Romanian National Institute for Statistics (INS).

[5] 来源:罗马尼亚国家统计局。

6. Source: Central Bank of Romania.

[6] 来源:罗马尼亚中央银行

7. Source: Bloomberg L.P. As of March 31, 2015. The P/E ratio is a valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index.

[7] 来源:彭博社。截至2015年3月31日。市盈率是公司目前股价对每股盈利的比例。指数是不受管理的,投资者不能直接投资于指数。

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