Investor Sentiment Around the World
2020-01-10 21:34

本帖还有中文 (简体) 、荷兰文、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

Franklin Templeton's 2015 Global Investor Sentiment Survey (GISS)1 revealed a number of interesting observations about investor beliefs, misconceptions and biases—and a few surprises. This year's survey polled investors across 23 countries in developed and emerging markets. Since the annual survey's launch in 2011, the world's investors have by and large been resiliently optimistic, but more so in certain markets than others.


Over the last five years the GISS has been conducted, a growing recognition of the value of global investing is an encouraging survey trend. In this year's survey, investors living in emerging markets, as well as those 25-34 years old (the Millennial generation) in both developed and emerging markets, showed the highest appetite for foreign investments. And, nearly seven out of 10 investors surveyed expected the best equity returns to be outside their home country this year. In my view, global diversification is important as it's difficult to predict which markets will ultimately prove to be the best—or worst—year after year.


Where Investors Are Most Optimistic—and Pessimistic  


In the Americas, the majority of  investors in the United States and Canada were optimistic about their local stock markets. Collectively, 64% of respondents in these two countries expected their respective stock market to rise this year. Meanwhile, investors in Latin America (including Mexico) were pessimistic—only 46% expected their local stock market to rise this year. This survey certainly seems to reflect the dour mood of many people in Brazil today as its economy has suffered. Investors in Brazil also showed the most dramatic shift in sentiment to the downside among individual countries, as the level of optimism there dropped 19% from 2014's survey.


Meanwhile, in Asia (including Australia) just over half (56%) of all investors surveyed expected their local stock market to rise. Investors in China showed one of the most dramatic upward shifts in sentiment from last year; the survey showed a 12% jump in investor optimism.


Some investors (particularly those in the West) have expressed concern about a slowing in the rate of China's growth from decades past, and may not be as upbeat about China's market prospects as investors living there seem to be. However, we remain optimistic about China as a continued global driver of growth and as an investment destination. It's important to note that in 2010, China reported a growth rate of 10.4%, resulting in approximately US$600 billion added to the economy. When the economy grew at a lower level of 7.7% in 2013, more than US$900 billion was added to the economy.2 So in dollar terms we still see larger increases in economic output even though the rate of gross domestic product (GDP) eases. Additionally, we still see much room for infrastructure development in China as migrant workers' salaries have been increasing and urban migration continues.



China's broad set of economic reforms as announced by the Third Plenum of the Communist Party is expected by many to have a very significant overall impact on emerging markets. These reforms include major deregulation and liberalization initiatives, allowing private-sector interests into the industrial and financial sectors, and more freedom for investments from foreign companies. As investors in China, we have been particularly encouraged by the drafting of liberalized foreign investment legislation, which could mean foreign investors would no longer be required to obtain government approval on a case-by-case basis for joint ventures, and which could instead give foreign investors the ability to invest in industries that have been inaccessible under Chinese law.


Interestingly, last year's Global Investor Sentiment Survey revealed that of all the individual countries surveyed, India's investors were the most optimistic about prospects for their local market. The survey was taken before the victory of now-Prime Minister Narendra Modi, so it appears that many people were likely feeling a renewed sense of hope for the future—and India's stock market proved to be one of the best performing in 2014, up nearly 30%.3 In this year's survey, Indian investors remain the most optimistic, with 86% of investors there expecting their local stock market to rise, and 97% of investors either optimistic or very optimistic about the prospects of reaching their financial goals.

有趣的是,去年的全球投资者信心调查显示,所有受调查的国家当中,印度的投资者最看好当地市场的前景。该调查是在现任总理纳伦德拉莫迪胜利之前进行的,所以看来很多人对未来可能重续希望,2014年印度股市上涨了近30 %[3],是表现最好的市场之一。在今年的调查中,印度的投资者仍然是最乐观的,86%的投资者预期当地股市会上涨,97%的投资者对于达到其投资目标表示乐观或非常乐观。

We certainly don't want to jump to any conclusions about potential market performance based on investor sentiment (or any one indicator for that matter), but it reminds me of the late Sir John Templeton's famous words: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism and die on euphoria.” I think there are reasons for investors in emerging markets to be optimistic—including those in Brazil. Equally, it would not be surprising to us to see short-term market corrections take places which have seen significant rallies over the past year, such as India and China.


Here are some more key differences that emerged from the GISS findings:


  • Looking at investor concerns, those living in emerging markets are more than twice as likely to be concerned about inflation, and nearly twice as likely to be concerned about rising interest rates, and the effects of falling oil prices, than developed market investors.
  • Conversely, developed market investors are nearly twice as likely to show concern over the fiscal situation in the eurozone.
  • Despite their concerns, emerging market investors generally remain more optimistic about achieving their long-term goals than investors residing in developed markets.
  • 投资者所担心的问题方面,生活在新兴市场的投资者更担心通货膨胀、利率上升和油价下跌的影响。
  • 相反,发达市场的投资者更担心欧元区的财政状况。
  • 虽说他们有所担忧,新兴市场投资者普遍对实现自己的长期目标比发达市场投资者更加乐观。

Looking Long Term: Emerging Asia


One additional survey finding that I found interesting is that when asked where the best equity opportunities would be this year, investors ranked Asia (including India) equally with the United States and Canada, but looking longer term, out over the next 10 years, Asia topped all markets.


Our team would agree that emerging markets in Asia in particular appear to us to hold much long-term potential. Looking at emerging-markets in Asia as a whole, GDP growth is forecast at 6.6% in 2015, compared with 4.3% for all emerging-market and developing economies and 2.4% for developed markets.4 One driving force behind this greater growth potential is favorable demographics trends in emerging-markets Asia; compared with the major developed nations of the United States and Japan, emerging-markets in Asia have a higher proportion of the population in the under-40 age group, indicating a younger population with a lower dependency ratio (a measure of the proportion of dependents—people aged 15 and under or 64 and older—compared to the working population).5 You can see this dynamic in the population pyramid below.



And lastly, I think the importance of investing for the long term, particularly in emerging markets, can't be stressed enough in this age of instant gratification. When investors around the world were asked what timeframe they felt would determine the success of an investment, 59% said within two years, while 32% of GISS respondents said one to two years. Even more disconcerting to me was that 21% said six to 11 months. In my view, one should not invest in the stock market for short-term goals or as a road to quick profits. At Templeton Emerging Markets Group, we invest with a five-year horizon in mind. It often takes time for certain investment theses to play out, so you have to be patient!

最后,在目前这个及时行乐的年代,我认为长期投资的重要性,尤其是在新兴市场,再怎么强调也不过分。当世界各地的投资者被问及决定投资成功的时间范围是多久时,59%说在两年内, 32%表示一到两年。更令人不安的是,21%的人回答说6到11个月。在我看来,投资者不应该抱着短期目标或快速获利的目的而投资于股市。在邓普顿新兴市场,我们的投资视野范围是五年。一些投资获得成果往往需要时间,所以你必须要有耐心!

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.


Important Legal Information


This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.


Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?


All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.


To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.


1. Source: The Franklin Templeton Global Investor Sentiment Survey, conducted by ORC International, included responses from 11,500 individuals in 23 countries: Brazil, Chile and Mexico in Latin America; Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Singapore in Asia Pacific; France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom in Europe; South Africa; the UAE; and the United States and Canada in North America. Survey respondents were between the ages of 25 and 65 in Latin America, Asia (except for Japan) and South Africa, and 25 and older in Europe, Japan, the UAE, Canada and the United States. Respondents were required to own investible assets such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. In addition, a minimum investable asset threshold was set for each country to ensure that the respondent had sufficient investments which would provide a knowledge base to answer the survey questions. Surveys were completed from February 12 to March 2, 2015, in all countries.

(function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start': new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src= '//www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f); })(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-WRD6G3'); 

[1] 资料来源:富兰克林邓普顿全球投资者信心调查,由ORC International公司进行调查,包括来自23个国家的1万1500人的调查结果:拉丁美洲的巴西、智利和墨西哥;亚太地区的澳大利亚、中国、香港、印度、日本、马来西亚、韩国和新加坡;欧洲的法国、德国、希腊、意大利、波兰、西班牙、瑞典和英国;南非;阿联酋;北美的美国和加拿大。拉丁美洲、亚洲(日本除外)和南非的调查受访者年龄介于25岁和65岁之间,欧洲、日本、阿联酋、加拿大和美国的调查受访者年龄至少是25岁。他们需要拥有可投资资产,如股票、债券、共同基金等。另外,每个国家的受访者有最低可投资资产门槛,以确保他们有足够的投资,有知识能力回答调查问题。调查于2015年2月12日至3月2日期间在所有国家完成。

[2] 来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。

[3] 来源:印度孟买股票交易所,标准普尔BSE Sensex指数。过往表现并不预示未来的结果。指数不受管理,投资者不能直接投资于指数。

[4] 来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。

[5] 来源:联合国世界人口数据库。世界人口展望:2012年修订版。2015年预测;概不保证任何预测会实现。

2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015.

[2] 来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。

3. Source: BSE India, S&P BSE Sensex Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest in an index.

[3] 来源:印度孟买股票交易所,标准普尔BSE Sensex指数。过往表现并不预示未来的结果。指数不受管理,投资者不能直接投资于指数。

4. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2015.

[4] 来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。

5. Source: UN World Population database. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. 2015 forecasted. There is no assurance that any forecast will be realized.

[5] 来源:联合国世界人口数据库。世界人口展望:2012年修订版。2015年预测;概不保证任何预测会实现。

0 条评论