全球的投资者情绪 
Investor Sentiment Around the World
2208字
2020-01-10 21:34
54阅读
火星译客

本帖还有中文 (简体) 、荷兰文、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

Franklin Templeton's 2015 Global Investor Sentiment Survey (GISS)1 revealed a number of interesting observations about investor beliefs, misconceptions and biases—and a few surprises. This year's survey polled investors across 23 countries in developed and emerging markets. Since the annual survey's launch in 2011, the world's investors have by and large been resiliently optimistic, but more so in certain markets than others.

富兰克林邓普顿的2015年全球投资者情绪调查(GISS)[1]揭示了有关投资者信心、误解和偏见的一些有趣的现象,也带来一些惊喜。今年的调查访问了23个发达和新兴市场国家的投资者。自从这个年度调查在2011年推出后,全球投资者大体上保持乐观,有些市场更是如此。

Over the last five years the GISS has been conducted, a growing recognition of the value of global investing is an encouraging survey trend. In this year's survey, investors living in emerging markets, as well as those 25-34 years old (the Millennial generation) in both developed and emerging markets, showed the highest appetite for foreign investments. And, nearly seven out of 10 investors surveyed expected the best equity returns to be outside their home country this year. In my view, global diversification is important as it's difficult to predict which markets will ultimately prove to be the best—or worst—year after year.

在这过去五年中,调查发现,全球投资的价值愈加受到认可,这是一个鼓舞人心的趋势。在今年的调查中,居住在新兴市场的投资者,以及发达和新兴市场25岁至34岁(新千年一代)的投资者,对外国投资的兴趣最大。而且,近七成的受访投资者预计,今年最出色的股票回报率将来自海外市场。在我看来,全球投资多元化是非常重要的,因为我们很难预测每一年哪个市场的表现最好或是最糟糕。

Where Investors Are Most Optimistic—and Pessimistic  

投资者最乐观和悲观的地区

In the Americas, the majority of  investors in the United States and Canada were optimistic about their local stock markets. Collectively, 64% of respondents in these two countries expected their respective stock market to rise this year. Meanwhile, investors in Latin America (including Mexico) were pessimistic—only 46% expected their local stock market to rise this year. This survey certainly seems to reflect the dour mood of many people in Brazil today as its economy has suffered. Investors in Brazil also showed the most dramatic shift in sentiment to the downside among individual countries, as the level of optimism there dropped 19% from 2014's survey.

在美洲,美国和加拿大的投资者多数对当地股市持乐观态度。整体上,这两个国家64%的受访者预计当地股市今年会上涨。与此同时,拉丁美洲(包括墨西哥)的投资者表示悲观,只有46%的人预期当地股市今年会上涨。这项调查似乎清楚反映了,由于巴西经济表现不佳,巴西很多人的心情阴郁。在所有国家中,巴西投资者的信心下跌最大,乐观程度比2014年调查显示的下降了19%。

Meanwhile, in Asia (including Australia) just over half (56%) of all investors surveyed expected their local stock market to rise. Investors in China showed one of the most dramatic upward shifts in sentiment from last year; the survey showed a 12% jump in investor optimism.

与此同时,在亚洲(包括澳大利亚),超过一半的受调查投资者(56%)预计当地股市会上扬。和去年相比,中国的投资者信心上涨幅度最大;调查显示,投资者的乐观情绪上扬了12%。

Some investors (particularly those in the West) have expressed concern about a slowing in the rate of China's growth from decades past, and may not be as upbeat about China's market prospects as investors living there seem to be. However, we remain optimistic about China as a continued global driver of growth and as an investment destination. It's important to note that in 2010, China reported a growth rate of 10.4%, resulting in approximately US$600 billion added to the economy. When the economy grew at a lower level of 7.7% in 2013, more than US$900 billion was added to the economy.2 So in dollar terms we still see larger increases in economic output even though the rate of gross domestic product (GDP) eases. Additionally, we still see much room for infrastructure development in China as migrant workers' salaries have been increasing and urban migration continues.

一些投资者(特别是西方的投资者)已经对中国经济增长速度放缓表示担心,可能不如居住在中国的投资者那么看好中国的市场前景。但是我们仍然看好中国的增长将持续推动全球经济,并对中国作为投资目的地感到乐观。重要的是,2010年中国取得了10.4%的增长率,这带来约6000亿美元的经济增值。2013年经济增长率放慢到7.7%,但这带来了超过9000亿美元的经济增值[2]。因此,即使国内生产总值(GDP)的增长下滑,以美元计算,经济总量的增幅更大。此外,随着农民工工资不断攀升,更多人迁居城市,中国的基础设施建设拥有很大的发展空间。

0515_GISS2015_sentiment

China's broad set of economic reforms as announced by the Third Plenum of the Communist Party is expected by many to have a very significant overall impact on emerging markets. These reforms include major deregulation and liberalization initiatives, allowing private-sector interests into the industrial and financial sectors, and more freedom for investments from foreign companies. As investors in China, we have been particularly encouraged by the drafting of liberalized foreign investment legislation, which could mean foreign investors would no longer be required to obtain government approval on a case-by-case basis for joint ventures, and which could instead give foreign investors the ability to invest in industries that have been inaccessible under Chinese law.

许多人预计,共产党的第三次全体会议全会宣布的广泛经济改革,会对新兴市场带来非常显著的影响。这些改革包括重大的管制放宽和自由化举措,允许私营部门进入工业和金融行业,以及外国公司投资拥有更多的自由。作为在中国的投资者,外国投资自由化立法的起草让我们特别受到鼓舞,这可能意味着外国投资者的合资计划将不再需要逐案获得政府的批准,这也可能让外国投资者投资在中国法律下无法进入的行业。

Interestingly, last year's Global Investor Sentiment Survey revealed that of all the individual countries surveyed, India's investors were the most optimistic about prospects for their local market. The survey was taken before the victory of now-Prime Minister Narendra Modi, so it appears that many people were likely feeling a renewed sense of hope for the future—and India's stock market proved to be one of the best performing in 2014, up nearly 30%.3 In this year's survey, Indian investors remain the most optimistic, with 86% of investors there expecting their local stock market to rise, and 97% of investors either optimistic or very optimistic about the prospects of reaching their financial goals.

有趣的是,去年的全球投资者信心调查显示,所有受调查的国家当中,印度的投资者最看好当地市场的前景。该调查是在现任总理纳伦德拉莫迪胜利之前进行的,所以看来很多人对未来可能重续希望,2014年印度股市上涨了近30 %[3],是表现最好的市场之一。在今年的调查中,印度的投资者仍然是最乐观的,86%的投资者预期当地股市会上涨,97%的投资者对于达到其投资目标表示乐观或非常乐观。

We certainly don't want to jump to any conclusions about potential market performance based on investor sentiment (or any one indicator for that matter), but it reminds me of the late Sir John Templeton's famous words: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism and die on euphoria.” I think there are reasons for investors in emerging markets to be optimistic—including those in Brazil. Equally, it would not be surprising to us to see short-term market corrections take places which have seen significant rallies over the past year, such as India and China.

我们当然不希望根据投资者情绪(或任何一个指标)对市场的潜在表现妄下结论,但它让我想起了约翰邓普顿爵士的名言:“牛市在悲观中诞生,在怀疑中成长,在兴奋中死亡。”我认为,在新兴市场的投资者、包括巴西的投资者,有理由持乐观态度。同样的,在过去一年取得了显著涨势的市场,如印度和中国,若出现短期的市场调整也不会令我们吃惊。

Here are some more key differences that emerged from the GISS findings:

下面是GISS调查结果中的一些主要区别:

  • Looking at investor concerns, those living in emerging markets are more than twice as likely to be concerned about inflation, and nearly twice as likely to be concerned about rising interest rates, and the effects of falling oil prices, than developed market investors.
  • Conversely, developed market investors are nearly twice as likely to show concern over the fiscal situation in the eurozone.
  • Despite their concerns, emerging market investors generally remain more optimistic about achieving their long-term goals than investors residing in developed markets.
  • 投资者所担心的问题方面,生活在新兴市场的投资者更担心通货膨胀、利率上升和油价下跌的影响。
  • 相反,发达市场的投资者更担心欧元区的财政状况。
  • 虽说他们有所担忧,新兴市场投资者普遍对实现自己的长期目标比发达市场投资者更加乐观。

Looking Long Term: Emerging Asia

展望长期:新兴亚洲

One additional survey finding that I found interesting is that when asked where the best equity opportunities would be this year, investors ranked Asia (including India) equally with the United States and Canada, but looking longer term, out over the next 10 years, Asia topped all markets.

让我感兴趣的另一个调查发现是,当问及今年哪里的股市机会最好时,投资者把亚洲(包括印度)和美国、加拿大排在首位,但如果是长期范围的话,亚洲居所有市场之首。

Our team would agree that emerging markets in Asia in particular appear to us to hold much long-term potential. Looking at emerging-markets in Asia as a whole, GDP growth is forecast at 6.6% in 2015, compared with 4.3% for all emerging-market and developing economies and 2.4% for developed markets.4 One driving force behind this greater growth potential is favorable demographics trends in emerging-markets Asia; compared with the major developed nations of the United States and Japan, emerging-markets in Asia have a higher proportion of the population in the under-40 age group, indicating a younger population with a lower dependency ratio (a measure of the proportion of dependents—people aged 15 and under or 64 and older—compared to the working population).5 You can see this dynamic in the population pyramid below.

我们的团队同意,在亚洲尤其是新兴市场抱有巨大的长期潜力。综观新兴亚洲市场,2015年GDP增长预计为6.6%,所有新兴市场和发展中经济体的为4.3%,发达市场的位2.4%[4]。推动这个更大的增长潜力的因素是新兴市场有利的人口趋势;与美国和日本等主要发达国家相比,亚洲新兴市场40岁以下的人口比例较高,这意味着较低的抚养比例(衡量受抚养人口——15岁及以下或64岁及以上的人口,对劳动人口的比例)[5]。你可以参考下图的人口金字塔。

0515_PopPyramidGISS

And lastly, I think the importance of investing for the long term, particularly in emerging markets, can't be stressed enough in this age of instant gratification. When investors around the world were asked what timeframe they felt would determine the success of an investment, 59% said within two years, while 32% of GISS respondents said one to two years. Even more disconcerting to me was that 21% said six to 11 months. In my view, one should not invest in the stock market for short-term goals or as a road to quick profits. At Templeton Emerging Markets Group, we invest with a five-year horizon in mind. It often takes time for certain investment theses to play out, so you have to be patient!

最后,在目前这个及时行乐的年代,我认为长期投资的重要性,尤其是在新兴市场,再怎么强调也不过分。当世界各地的投资者被问及决定投资成功的时间范围是多久时,59%说在两年内, 32%表示一到两年。更令人不安的是,21%的人回答说6到11个月。在我看来,投资者不应该抱着短期目标或快速获利的目的而投资于股市。在邓普顿新兴市场,我们的投资视野范围是五年。一些投资获得成果往往需要时间,所以你必须要有耐心!

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: The Franklin Templeton Global Investor Sentiment Survey, conducted by ORC International, included responses from 11,500 individuals in 23 countries: Brazil, Chile and Mexico in Latin America; Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Singapore in Asia Pacific; France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom in Europe; South Africa; the UAE; and the United States and Canada in North America. Survey respondents were between the ages of 25 and 65 in Latin America, Asia (except for Japan) and South Africa, and 25 and older in Europe, Japan, the UAE, Canada and the United States. Respondents were required to own investible assets such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. In addition, a minimum investable asset threshold was set for each country to ensure that the respondent had sufficient investments which would provide a knowledge base to answer the survey questions. Surveys were completed from February 12 to March 2, 2015, in all countries.

(function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start': new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src= '//www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f); })(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-WRD6G3'); 

[1] 资料来源:富兰克林邓普顿全球投资者信心调查,由ORC International公司进行调查,包括来自23个国家的1万1500人的调查结果:拉丁美洲的巴西、智利和墨西哥;亚太地区的澳大利亚、中国、香港、印度、日本、马来西亚、韩国和新加坡;欧洲的法国、德国、希腊、意大利、波兰、西班牙、瑞典和英国;南非;阿联酋;北美的美国和加拿大。拉丁美洲、亚洲(日本除外)和南非的调查受访者年龄介于25岁和65岁之间,欧洲、日本、阿联酋、加拿大和美国的调查受访者年龄至少是25岁。他们需要拥有可投资资产,如股票、债券、共同基金等。另外,每个国家的受访者有最低可投资资产门槛,以确保他们有足够的投资,有知识能力回答调查问题。调查于2015年2月12日至3月2日期间在所有国家完成。

[2] 来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。

[3] 来源:印度孟买股票交易所,标准普尔BSE Sensex指数。过往表现并不预示未来的结果。指数不受管理,投资者不能直接投资于指数。

[4] 来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。

[5] 来源:联合国世界人口数据库。世界人口展望:2012年修订版。2015年预测;概不保证任何预测会实现。

2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015.

[2] 来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。

3. Source: BSE India, S&P BSE Sensex Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest in an index.

[3] 来源:印度孟买股票交易所,标准普尔BSE Sensex指数。过往表现并不预示未来的结果。指数不受管理,投资者不能直接投资于指数。

4. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2015.

[4] 来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。

5. Source: UN World Population database. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. 2015 forecasted. There is no assurance that any forecast will be realized.

[5] 来源:联合国世界人口数据库。世界人口展望:2012年修订版。2015年预测;概不保证任何预测会实现。

0 条评论
评论不能为空