东盟的关键一年?
A Pivotal Year for ASEAN?
2042字
2020-01-09 22:59
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The role of Asian markets in the global economy has grown significantly in recent years, and we expect this trend to continue in the future. Many of these countries have also made fundamental improvements to their economies, and we think these changes are here to stay. This year could prove a pivotal one for a number of countries in Asia, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had set ambitious plans for a new ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) to come to fruition in 2015. Discussions among ASEAN members in preparation for the AEC are still ongoing and while the fine points are still being worked out, we are enthusiastic to see the outcome.

最近几年亚洲市场在全球经济中的作用日益突出,我们预计未来将持续这种趋势。很多国家的经济得到根本性改善,我们认为这些改变将成为常态。由于东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN,简称“东盟”)制定了雄心勃勃的计划,比如在2015年成立新的东盟经济共同体(AEC),所以,对于很多亚洲国家而言,今年必定将是非常关键的一年。东盟成员国还在就东盟经济共同体的筹建进行讨论,同时细则仍在制定之中,我们对结果拭目以待。

Founded in 1967 to foster regional cooperation and promote peace, ASEAN is a strong regional economy made up of 10 members: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR (Laos), Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The 10 individual ASEAN members already have attractive characteristics for investors, including favorable demographic profiles, abundant natural resources and low-cost labor, among other factors. Combined into a single market, they encompass a population in excess of 600 million and a wide range of economic attributes from the financial, trading and technology skills available in Singapore to the largely untapped reserves of labor and natural resources in Myanmar that, when combined, could well represent far more than the sum of their parts. The AEC was envisaged to have the following key characteristics: (a) a single market and production base, (b) a highly competitive economic region, (c) a region of equitable economic development and (d) a region fully integrated into the global economy.1

东盟成立于1967年,旨在推动地区合作与促进和平,是由10个成员国组成的强大地区经济体:文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南。东盟每一个成员国中每一个本身对投资者而言都颇具吸引力,包括有利的人口状况、丰富的自然资源和低成本劳动力等因素。组成单一市场后,他们将涵盖超过6亿人口以及一系列经济属性,从新加坡成熟的金融、贸易和技术,到缅甸大部分尚未开发的劳动力和自然资源,一旦合并,将大大超过单体的总和。设想中的东盟经济共同体具有以下主要特点:(a) 单一市场和生产基础,(b) 极具竞争力的经济区域,(c) 具有平等经济发展的地区,以及(d) 完全融入全球经济的地区。 

Because ASEAN countries have to work toward a collective vision and cooperative spirit when AEC fully comes together, we think it should strengthen their partnership, even though there has been some outlying resistance and concerns about some aspects. If it is fully implemented later this year, the AEC represents an opportunity to further promote cross-border trade and connect economies, companies and people within the region in the years to come. According to a recent study conducted by the Boston Consulting Group, businesses in the region are remarkably bullish about the AEC: 80% of those surveyed regarded the AEC as a business opportunity for their firm and believed it would help accelerate growth in their respective industries.2 Business executives also acknowledged that progress has been made over the years in most sectors, and two-thirds of the companies responding to the survey said they were adjusting their product offerings and upgrading their organizations and supply chains. However, some business executives in ASEAN also expressed concern that governments would not wholeheartedly facilitate the free flow of goods across the region.

由于东盟国家必须朝着共同的愿景和合作精神迈进,当东盟经济共同体组建完成时,我们认为它可以增强这些国家之前的合作关系,即使在某些方面存在一些无关紧要的阻碍和担忧。如果在今年晚些时候充分实施,东盟经济共同体将成为未来数年内在该地区进一步推进跨境贸易,以及将各个经济体、企业和民众联系在一起的一个宝贵机会。波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)最近的一次研究显示,该地区的企业非常看好东盟经济共同体:80%的受访者将东盟经济共同体视为他们公司的一次商业机遇,并相信将帮助加快在各自行业的增长。 企业高管还确认,过去几年多数行业已经取得进步,同时在回答调查的企业中,有三分之二表示正在调整产品供应,并升级他们的组织结构和供应链。但是,东盟一些企业的高管也表达出政府可能不会全心全意推进商品在整个地区自由流动的担忧。

In our view, the enviable location of the proposed AEC, bordering the fast-growing economic giants of India and China, could be a major potential benefit for companies within ASEAN as well as investors. The region lies on one of the “one belt, one road” trade routes identified by the Chinese government as significant focuses for investment. Chinese firms are already active investors in countries such as Vietnam, taking advantage of significantly lower wage rates in comparison with Southern China, and ambitious plans for transport infrastructure improving China's links with Southeast Asia are under development. International trade could become a further stimulus to growth for Southeast Asia, with some of the countries of the region closely involved in major free trade initiatives such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, currently under negotiation, while also looking to deepen intra-regional trade links. ASEAN has seen continuing population growth over the last 15 years, totaling 620 million people in 2014 and expected to increase further to close to 670 million by 2020, a growth of about 30% from the 514 million in 2000.3 We believe this growth potential, combined with increasing per capita incomes and relatively younger population structures, could further drive the growing consumer demand in the region as a reduction in the cost of doing business, improved labor and capital movement and the streamlining of taxation can only increase the opportunity for growth. As a result, ASEAN economies are increasing domestic consumption of a wide range of goods and services.

我们认为,提议的东盟经济共同体/位置极佳,紧邻经济快速腾飞的印度和中国,可能成为东盟内部企业和投资者的一个主要潜在利好。该地区位于中国政府设定的重点投资的“一带一路”贸易线路上。中国企业已经成为越南等国的活跃投资者,利用相对于华南地区低得多的工资水平,同时通过交通基础设施的提升中国与东南亚联系的宏伟计划也在制定之中。国际贸易可能成为进一步刺激东南亚增长的因素,该地区一些国家正密切参与一些重要的自由贸易倡议,如目前正在谈判中的泛太平洋伙伴关系协定(Trans-Pacific Partnership),同时还计划深化区域内贸易联系。东盟人口已持续增长超过15年,2014年总人口为6.2亿,并且预计到2020年将增至接近6.7亿,相对于2000年的5.14亿增长约30%。 我们认为这种增长潜力,加上不断增长的人均收入以及相对年轻的人口结构,可能进一步推动区内不断增长的消费需求,因为商业成本降低、劳动力提高以及资本流动和税收优化,只会增加增长机遇。因此,东盟经济体正在促进各种商品和服务的国内消费。

According to various forecasts, the prospects for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the region going forward are far stronger than in developed markets, and in excess even of other emerging-market regions. GDP growth in emerging Asia is expected to average 6.6% in 2015, while frontier markets such as Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos are forecasted to grow even faster.4 At the other end of the spectrum, Brunei is expected to contract by 0.5%, while Thailand and Singapore are expected to expand by a still-reasonable 3.7% and 3%, respectively.5

根据各个不同的预测,该地区未来的国内生产总值(GDP)增长前景远远超过发达市场,甚至将超过其它新兴市场地区。2015年新兴亚洲地区的GDP增长预计为平均6.6%,而前沿市场(frontier market)如缅甸、柬埔寨和老挝,预计增速甚至更快。 而在另一端,文莱预计将萎缩0.5%,泰国和新加坡预计仍将分别保持3.7%和3%的合理增速。

0515_ASEANGDP

A Range of Diverse Opportunities

广泛的机会

In our view, Southeast Asia is currently among the most exciting investment destinations available to emerging and frontier market investors. The range of opportunities available to investors is remarkable, from the highly developed and technologically sophisticated Singapore market through emerging markets in various stages of development such as Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines to exciting frontier prospects such as Vietnam and Myanmar. Indonesia is in the midst of a significant reform program initiated by President Widodo, while Thailand's military government is looking to shore up support through growth-oriented activities. In our view, Singapore's role as a global trading hub should permit continued growth and prosperity for that market. Myanmar's opening to market forces could receive a significant boost should scheduled elections pass off successfully, while Vietnam is also engaged in a cautious opening to global investors and gradual reform of its banking sector.

我们认为,东南亚目前对于新兴和前沿市场投资者来说是最令人兴奋的投资目的地之一。可供投资者选择的机会非常广泛,从高度发达和技术成熟的新加坡市场,到处于不同发展阶段的新兴市场如泰国、印尼和菲律宾等,再到越南和缅甸等令人兴奋的前沿市场,不一而足。印尼总统维多多(Widodo)正在发起重要的改革计划,而泰国军政府正试图通过以增长为导向的措施来获取更多支持。我们认为,新加坡作为全球贸易中心,应该可以实现该国市场持续的增长和繁荣。与此同时,如果计划中的选举顺利举行,缅甸向市场开放的举措将获得巨大的推动力,而越南也在谨慎向全球投资者开放并逐步改革银行业。

Laos has the potential to join compelling frontier stock markets as demand for its hydropower and mineral resources boosts economic growth. We believe economic reform proposals under way elsewhere in the region also have the potential to boost economic growth and corporate profitability. With its excellent international trade links and the availability both of sophisticated technology and low-cost labor, Southeast Asia has long been an important center for the supply-chain activities of Japanese companies, while labor cost advantages have seen much basic manufacturing activity migrating from China. There are still some challenges for ASEAN countries ahead; naturally, when you have a divergence of countries, there are going to be differences of opinion but collective cooperation is needed to make the AEC successful.

随着对老挝水电和矿物资源的需求推动经济增长,该国有潜力成为最具吸引力的前沿股票市场中的一员。我们相信该地区其它地方的经济改革提案也有可能会推动经济增长和公司的盈利能力。凭借极佳的国际贸易联系以及可获取的成熟技术和低成本劳动力,东南亚长期以来一直是日本企业供应链活动的重要中心,同时劳动力成本的优势已经促使很多基础制造业从中国向该地区转移。另一方面,东盟国家依然面临着一些挑战;当然,不同的国家肯定会有不同的观点,但集体合作是东盟经济共同体成功所必需的。

We would also like to see continued progress in removing barriers to the global flows of goods and services in the region, and policies that encourage foreign investment. In order for AEC to gain credibility and develop as envisioned, we believe various obstacles need to be addressed, including differences in regulations and policies, bureaucratic pressures, and perhaps a perception or concern among some business owners about whether ASEAN can be an open market. AEC, if successfully implemented, will represent a common market with a combined GDP of nearly US$2 trillion. We believe the fact that all ASEAN countries will ultimately have to work toward a collective vision and cooperative spirit when AEC comes together should strengthen their partnership and, hopefully, improve the lives of the people. We think the future for the region remains positive, supported by several factors including solid growth prospects, strong labor and natural resources, favorable demographics, advantageous trade links and geographical positioning, as well as watershed initiatives for reform.

我们将继续期待该地区在消除商品和服务的全球流动壁垒,以及在鼓励外商投资政策方面取得进步。为了增加东盟经济共同体的信誉并且按照设想发展,我们认为需要解决合作障碍,包括法规和政策差异、官僚政治压力、以及可能存在的一些企业对于东盟是否能成为一个开放市场的看法或担忧。如果成功实施,东盟经济共同体将是一个GDP总额接近2万亿美元的共同市场。我们相信,当东盟经济共同体成立时,为了增强合作关系以及改善民众生活,所有东盟国家最终将不得不朝着共同的愿景和合作精神努力前进。受多重因素支持,包括稳健的增长前景、强大的劳动力和自然资源、有利的人口统计特征、具有优势的贸易联系和地理位置、以及转折性的改革计划,我们认为该地区的未来依然乐观。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: ASEAN Economic Community Factbook. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat, February 2011.

[1]资料来源:东盟经济共同体概况。雅加达:东盟秘书处,2011年2月。

2. Source: Boston Consulting Group: “Winning in ASEAN, How Companies are Preparing for Economic Integration,” October 2014.

[2]资料来源:波士顿咨询集团:“ 赢得东盟,企业如何为经济一体化做准备 ”,2014年10月。

3. Source: International Monetary Fund. There is no assurance any forecast will be realized.

[3]资料来源:国际货币基金组织。过去的表现并不能保证未来的业绩。

4. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015. There is no assurance any forecast will be realized.

[4]资料来源:国际货币基金组织世界经济展望数据库,2015年4月。过去的表现并不能保证未来的业绩。

5. Source: Ibid.

[5]资料来源:同上

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