新兴市场状态:一切尽在[央行]
State of Emerging Markets: All About Those [Central] Banks
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2020-01-09 22:59
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This spring my travels have taken me to Europe, where I've had the pleasure of speaking with colleagues, clients and companies in the region that are on our team's radar. I'll be back in London for Franklin Templeton's 2015 London Investment Conference, which has the theme: “Investing for What's Next™: A Roadmap for Active Investors.” Certainly, the value of active management is one we champion at Franklin Templeton, and we in the Templeton Emerging Markets Group are quite active in our travels around the world searching for potential investment opportunities. At the conference, I'll be sharing some key themes I see shaping emerging markets today, but here's a sneak peak.

今年春天,我曾经出差到欧洲,并有幸拜访了我们的客户和当地公司,和同事们进行了交流。接下来我会回到伦敦参加富兰克林邓普顿2015年伦敦投资大会,这次会议的主题是:“投资下一站™:主动投资者的路线图。”的确,主动式管理的价值观是我们在富兰克林邓普顿所捍卫的,并且邓普顿新兴市场团队在全球寻找潜在投资机会方面相当主动。在本次大会上,我将会分享我所看到的、目前对新兴市场构成重大影响的一些关键主题,但在这里我们可以先睹为快。

Emerging Markets Outlook

新兴市场展望

This year, you might title the theme song of the global markets: “All About Those [Central] Banks,” as monetary policy divergences have kept investors on alert and has heightened market volatility. A secondary theme might be “All About Those [Oil] Barrels” as market watchers ponder the potential impact of a prolonged slump in oil prices on various economies or a pickup in prices.

如果为今年的全球市场定调,或许可以说:“一切尽在[央行]”,因为货币政策分化引起投资者的警觉,加剧了市场的波动性。第二个主题可能是“[油]桶的广泛影响”,因为市场观察者在思考油价长期低迷或者油价上涨可能给各经济体带来怎样的潜在影响。

While performance in individual markets has varied, emerging markets in general outpaced developed markets in the first four months of this year,1 as it appeared that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was not in a rush to raise interest rates and the impact of lower oil prices was seen as generally positive for the largest emerging market economies, China and India. Lower oil prices have also helped spur reform efforts in some emerging markets, including the removal of subsidies. The markets are anticipating the Fed will begin raising interest rates sometime later this year but the majority of other global central banks remain in an easing mode, including the People's Bank of China, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank via massive quantitative easing (QE) programs.

虽然每个市场的表现各异,但由于美联储似乎并不急于加息,加之油价下跌对大型新兴市场经济体,如中国和印度,产生的影响基本是积极的,所以今年前四个月新兴市场的表现普遍好于发达市场 。油价下跌促进了一些新兴市场的改革措施,包括取消补贴。市场预测美联储将在今年晚些时候开始加息,但多数其它全球央行仍处于宽松模式,其中包括中国人民银行、日本央行和欧洲央行,都存在大规模的量化宽松(QE)计划。

Certainly, reviving inflation and economic growth in Europe through QE is a topic du jour among European investors. However, from my perspective, banks are just not lending enough (as you can see in the eurozone loan-to-deposit ratio chart below), and people are not spending enough. In my view, there is money still waiting to be invested around the globe, money which could continue to fuel global equity markets—even as the Fed is expected to start to raise interest rates in the United States. 

当然,通过量化宽松重新提振欧洲的通胀和经济增长是欧洲投资者热衷的话题。但是在我看来,各银行放贷不足(参见下文的欧元区存贷比图),同时居民支出也存在不足。我认为,即使美联储料将开始在美国加息,全球仍有资金等待投资,这些资金可以继续为全球股市提供动力。

0615_Eurozone_Dep_Ratio_rev

No Rush for Rate Hikes  

不急于加息

It's our view that a lot of the modern technological tools we have readily embraced (mobile phone apps, e-commerce sites, etc.) have increased competition and pricing pressure, keeping inflation at bay in many areas of the economy. It's difficult for a central bank (for example the US Fed) to justify raising interest rates when economic growth is not overheating, and there is no sign of inflation. I can't predict when the Fed will start raising rates, but it seems likely the US central bank isn't in a rush to act in an aggressive manner, and any rate increases will likely be gradual and measured. Without a major inflationary threat, I don't think the Fed would want the US dollar to get too strong, as it could negatively impact export-oriented companies—something we've already seen evidence of during the latest US corporate earnings season. Nonetheless, the markets will likely react when the Fed does act, so we are remaining cautious, and planning for some volatility ahead.

我们认为,目前广泛使用的很多现代技术工具(手机应用、电子商务网站等)已经提高了竞争和价格压力,使得通胀在经济的很多方面受控。当经济增长并没有过热,而且没有通胀迹象时,央行(如美联储)很难证明加息的合理性。我无法预测美联储何时会开始加息,但是似乎美联储并不急于采取激进措施,即使加息,也可能是逐步和慎重的。既然没有明显的通胀威胁,我认为美联储也不会希望美元过于强势,因为这可能会对出口型企业造成负面影响——在美国企业最近的财报季中,我们已经看到了这种迹象。尽管如此,市场在美联储采取行动时可能会做出反应,因此我们将保持谨慎,对未来的波动做好准备。

Moving into the second quarter of 2015 and beyond, we believe a complex global background appears broadly favorable for emerging markets. Developed markets offer a contrast between the solid growth trends seen in the United States, and the ongoing efforts in both Europe and Japan to animate sluggish economies through aggressive QE and depreciating currencies.

我们认为,从2015年二季度开始,复杂的全球背景整体而言对新兴市场有利。而在发达市场,美国出现的稳健增长趋势,与欧洲和日本持续尝试通过激进的量化宽松和货币贬值激活疲软的经济,形成鲜明对比。

Emerging Market Tailwinds 

新兴市场顺风顺水

Within emerging markets themselves, still-solid economic growth trends, widespread reform measures and benefits from lower oil prices are all providing tailwinds to equity markets, in addition to the ongoing boosts from demographic influences, technology transfer and generally low debt levels. In our view, the direction of policy across most of Asia appears strongly favorable for economic growth.

在新兴市场,除了人口因素的影响、技术转移以及普遍较低的债务水平等利好持续推动外,依然稳定的经济增长趋势、广泛的改革措施以及低油价,都会给股市带来动力。我们认为,多数亚洲国家的政策方向都对经济增长非常有利。

The Chinese authorities are continuing the major program of reforms laid out in late 2013. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is starting to introduce ambitious reform measures in line with his pre-election promises. Positive structural changes are under way in many other markets across the region, while free trade initiatives, most notably the planned ASEAN Economic Community and Trans-Pacific Partnership, could provide a further boost to growth.

中国当局正在继续实施2013年底推出的重大改革计划,而印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪也在按照大选的承诺,推进雄心勃勃的改革措施。该地区很多其它市场也在进行积极的结构性调整,而自由贸易计划——最著名的是计划中的东盟经济共同体和跨太平洋伙伴关系协定,可能为增长提供进一步的推动力。

In Latin America, Brazil's difficult current situation could be sowing the seeds of recovery with currency devaluation boosting competitiveness, while moves to root out corruption could lead to improved economic and corporate governance over time. Reform measures in Mexico and elsewhere could also begin to support market performance. Central European emerging markets and Turkey could benefit from economic recovery in the eurozone, which could also ease economic pressures on Greece. Meanwhile, a lessening in tensions over Ukraine could allow investor attention to focus on the attractive assets and low valuations available in the Russian market.

在拉丁美洲,通过货币贬值提高竞争力,巴西目前的困难局势可能为复苏埋下伏笔,同时根除腐败可能在一段时间后提高经济和企业管理水平。墨西哥和其它地区的改革措施可能开始为市场表现提供支持。中欧新兴市场和土耳其有望从欧元区的经济复苏中受益,还可能缓解希腊的经济压力。与此同时,乌克兰紧张局势的缓解或使投资者关注俄罗斯市场中具有吸引力和低估值的资产。

Emerging and frontier market countries contain some of the most vibrant and fastest-growing economies in the world. While there has been some discussion about a decline in foreign exchange reserves, I believe they remain in a healthy state. Debt ratings are also improving as more upgrades have occurred in emerging market economies than in developed ones.2

新兴及前沿市场有着世界上最具活力且发展迅速的经济体。尽管已经有一些关于外汇储备减少的言论,但我相信这些国家仍然处于一个健康的状态。这些国家的债务评级也有所改善,新兴市场经济体的评级上调数量已经超过发达国家。

Additionally, the interest rate climate for investors is appealing in emerging markets, many of which are taking advantage of lower energy prices to reform their economies, including the aforementioned removal of subsidies. Of course, the impact of oil prices will hurt some economies and help others, as some are net importers and some net exporters. Examining the demand for oil globally, we don't believe the price of oil will stay at overly depressed levels for long.

此外,新兴市场的利率环境也十分诱人,众多市场利用低廉的能源价格对其经济进行改革,包括之前提及的取消补贴。当然,油价的影响在打击一部分经济体的同时,会对其他经济体带来帮助,因为一些国家是净进口国,而另一些则为净出口国。在对全球的原油需求进行调查后,我们相信油价不会长时间处在过低的水平。

Finding Value in Emerging Markets

发掘新兴市场的价值

While volatility can cause many investors distress, we see it as opportunity to pick up shares of what we see as good-quality companies at attractive prices. In our view, stocks in many emerging markets are undervalued now (based on price-earnings and price-book values,3 and we believe there is still money in motion as central banks globally expand their balance sheets.

尽管波动性令许多投资者承受压力,但我们认为这是难得的机会,以具有吸引力的价格购买我们认为优质的企业股票。在我们看来,许多新兴市场国家的股票目前普遍估值过低(基于市盈率及市账率 ),而且由于全球央行正在扩大其资产负债表,我们相信其仍然有流动资金。

Additionally, the market for initial public offerings (IPOs) and secondary issues has been healthy in emerging markets and expanding potential opportunities; more than 30% of all IPOs globally in the past 10 years have been in emerging markets.4

除此之外,新兴国家市场中首次公开募股 (IPO) 及二级市场运转良好,增加了潜在的机遇;过去10年内,全球有超过30%的IPO发生在新兴市场。

We also believe the growth of technology in emerging markets will encourage new investment opportunities. An increasing number of people, including those in emerging market economies, are moving from laptops to smartphones, and huge sales of these products can be seen in emerging markets, particularly in China and India.

我们同时也相信,新兴市场技术的发展会鼓励新的投资机遇。包括新兴市场经济体在内的众多经济体中,大量的消费者正在从笔记本电脑向智能手机的使用转变,在新兴市场国家尤其是中国和印度,这类产品的销量巨大。

0615_SmartphoneSales

Of course, there are always going to be challenges. And at times, it can be quite difficult to withstand periods of uncertainty. But as Sir John Templeton once said: “Successful investing is not an easy job. It requires an open mind, continuous study and critical judgment.”

当然,挑战总是存在。有时候,经受一段时间的不确定性可能相当难熬。但正如约翰‧邓普顿爵士所说:“成功的投资绝非易事。它需要开放的思维、持续不断的学习和严谨的判断。”

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI World Index, YTD through April 2015. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[1] 资料来源:MSCI新兴市场指数,MSCI世界指数,年初至2015年4月。这些指数未受管理,无法对某个指数直接进行投资。过去的表现并不能保证未来的业绩。

2. Source: S&P, Moody's, Bloomberg. Most recent data available, as of 10/31/13. Emerging markets as represented by MSCI Emerging Markets Index; Developed Markets as represented by the MSCI World Index. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[2]资料来源:标准普尔、穆迪、彭博资讯。可用的最新数据截至2013年10月31日。新兴市场的代表指数是MSCI新兴市场指数;发达市场的代表指数是MSCI世界指数。这些指数未受管理,无法对某个指数直接进行投资。访问franklintempletondatasources.com以获取更多有关数据提供者的信息。

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