State of Emerging Markets: All About Those [Central] Banks
2020-01-09 22:59

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This spring my travels have taken me to Europe, where I've had the pleasure of speaking with colleagues, clients and companies in the region that are on our team's radar. I'll be back in London for Franklin Templeton's 2015 London Investment Conference, which has the theme: “Investing for What's Next™: A Roadmap for Active Investors.” Certainly, the value of active management is one we champion at Franklin Templeton, and we in the Templeton Emerging Markets Group are quite active in our travels around the world searching for potential investment opportunities. At the conference, I'll be sharing some key themes I see shaping emerging markets today, but here's a sneak peak.


Emerging Markets Outlook


This year, you might title the theme song of the global markets: “All About Those [Central] Banks,” as monetary policy divergences have kept investors on alert and has heightened market volatility. A secondary theme might be “All About Those [Oil] Barrels” as market watchers ponder the potential impact of a prolonged slump in oil prices on various economies or a pickup in prices.


While performance in individual markets has varied, emerging markets in general outpaced developed markets in the first four months of this year,1 as it appeared that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was not in a rush to raise interest rates and the impact of lower oil prices was seen as generally positive for the largest emerging market economies, China and India. Lower oil prices have also helped spur reform efforts in some emerging markets, including the removal of subsidies. The markets are anticipating the Fed will begin raising interest rates sometime later this year but the majority of other global central banks remain in an easing mode, including the People's Bank of China, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank via massive quantitative easing (QE) programs.

虽然每个市场的表现各异,但由于美联储似乎并不急于加息,加之油价下跌对大型新兴市场经济体,如中国和印度,产生的影响基本是积极的,所以今年前四个月新兴市场的表现普遍好于发达市场 。油价下跌促进了一些新兴市场的改革措施,包括取消补贴。市场预测美联储将在今年晚些时候开始加息,但多数其它全球央行仍处于宽松模式,其中包括中国人民银行、日本央行和欧洲央行,都存在大规模的量化宽松(QE)计划。

Certainly, reviving inflation and economic growth in Europe through QE is a topic du jour among European investors. However, from my perspective, banks are just not lending enough (as you can see in the eurozone loan-to-deposit ratio chart below), and people are not spending enough. In my view, there is money still waiting to be invested around the globe, money which could continue to fuel global equity markets—even as the Fed is expected to start to raise interest rates in the United States. 



No Rush for Rate Hikes  


It's our view that a lot of the modern technological tools we have readily embraced (mobile phone apps, e-commerce sites, etc.) have increased competition and pricing pressure, keeping inflation at bay in many areas of the economy. It's difficult for a central bank (for example the US Fed) to justify raising interest rates when economic growth is not overheating, and there is no sign of inflation. I can't predict when the Fed will start raising rates, but it seems likely the US central bank isn't in a rush to act in an aggressive manner, and any rate increases will likely be gradual and measured. Without a major inflationary threat, I don't think the Fed would want the US dollar to get too strong, as it could negatively impact export-oriented companies—something we've already seen evidence of during the latest US corporate earnings season. Nonetheless, the markets will likely react when the Fed does act, so we are remaining cautious, and planning for some volatility ahead.


Moving into the second quarter of 2015 and beyond, we believe a complex global background appears broadly favorable for emerging markets. Developed markets offer a contrast between the solid growth trends seen in the United States, and the ongoing efforts in both Europe and Japan to animate sluggish economies through aggressive QE and depreciating currencies.


Emerging Market Tailwinds 


Within emerging markets themselves, still-solid economic growth trends, widespread reform measures and benefits from lower oil prices are all providing tailwinds to equity markets, in addition to the ongoing boosts from demographic influences, technology transfer and generally low debt levels. In our view, the direction of policy across most of Asia appears strongly favorable for economic growth.


The Chinese authorities are continuing the major program of reforms laid out in late 2013. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is starting to introduce ambitious reform measures in line with his pre-election promises. Positive structural changes are under way in many other markets across the region, while free trade initiatives, most notably the planned ASEAN Economic Community and Trans-Pacific Partnership, could provide a further boost to growth.


In Latin America, Brazil's difficult current situation could be sowing the seeds of recovery with currency devaluation boosting competitiveness, while moves to root out corruption could lead to improved economic and corporate governance over time. Reform measures in Mexico and elsewhere could also begin to support market performance. Central European emerging markets and Turkey could benefit from economic recovery in the eurozone, which could also ease economic pressures on Greece. Meanwhile, a lessening in tensions over Ukraine could allow investor attention to focus on the attractive assets and low valuations available in the Russian market.


Emerging and frontier market countries contain some of the most vibrant and fastest-growing economies in the world. While there has been some discussion about a decline in foreign exchange reserves, I believe they remain in a healthy state. Debt ratings are also improving as more upgrades have occurred in emerging market economies than in developed ones.2


Additionally, the interest rate climate for investors is appealing in emerging markets, many of which are taking advantage of lower energy prices to reform their economies, including the aforementioned removal of subsidies. Of course, the impact of oil prices will hurt some economies and help others, as some are net importers and some net exporters. Examining the demand for oil globally, we don't believe the price of oil will stay at overly depressed levels for long.


Finding Value in Emerging Markets


While volatility can cause many investors distress, we see it as opportunity to pick up shares of what we see as good-quality companies at attractive prices. In our view, stocks in many emerging markets are undervalued now (based on price-earnings and price-book values,3 and we believe there is still money in motion as central banks globally expand their balance sheets.

尽管波动性令许多投资者承受压力,但我们认为这是难得的机会,以具有吸引力的价格购买我们认为优质的企业股票。在我们看来,许多新兴市场国家的股票目前普遍估值过低(基于市盈率及市账率 ),而且由于全球央行正在扩大其资产负债表,我们相信其仍然有流动资金。

Additionally, the market for initial public offerings (IPOs) and secondary issues has been healthy in emerging markets and expanding potential opportunities; more than 30% of all IPOs globally in the past 10 years have been in emerging markets.4

除此之外,新兴国家市场中首次公开募股 (IPO) 及二级市场运转良好,增加了潜在的机遇;过去10年内,全球有超过30%的IPO发生在新兴市场。

We also believe the growth of technology in emerging markets will encourage new investment opportunities. An increasing number of people, including those in emerging market economies, are moving from laptops to smartphones, and huge sales of these products can be seen in emerging markets, particularly in China and India.



Of course, there are always going to be challenges. And at times, it can be quite difficult to withstand periods of uncertainty. But as Sir John Templeton once said: “Successful investing is not an easy job. It requires an open mind, continuous study and critical judgment.”


Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.


Important Legal Information


This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.


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What Are the Risks?


All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.


To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.


1. Source: MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI World Index, YTD through April 2015. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[1] 资料来源:MSCI新兴市场指数,MSCI世界指数,年初至2015年4月。这些指数未受管理,无法对某个指数直接进行投资。过去的表现并不能保证未来的业绩。

2. Source: S&P, Moody's, Bloomberg. Most recent data available, as of 10/31/13. Emerging markets as represented by MSCI Emerging Markets Index; Developed Markets as represented by the MSCI World Index. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.


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