建设未来:新兴市场基础设施
Building for the Future: Infrastructure in Emerging Markets
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2020-01-09 21:03
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There has been a recent debate about whether the end of the commodities “supercycle” is over, and if we are entering a new era of lower prices for natural resources, particularly oil. While no one can predict exactly where prices are headed next, one thing I do know is that demand for natural resources has continued to increase in emerging markets. Emerging economies in general have experienced stronger economic growth trends than developed markets over the past decade, a trend that I expect to continue. That growth, combined with rising populations and a trend toward urbanization, requires more infrastructure.

近期市场在讨论大宗商品“超级周期”是否已经终结,以及我们是否已经进入自然资源价格,特别是油价走低的新时代。虽然没有人可以准确预测下一步的价格走向,但有一点我知道,就是新兴市场对自然资源的需求仍然持续增长。过去十年间,新兴经济体普遍比发达市场出现了更强劲的经济增长趋势,预期这种趋势将会持续。经济增长、人口膨胀和城市化进程,这些因素催生了更多的基础设施需求。

Of the 10 most populous countries in the world, eight are in emerging markets, and the emerging markets of China and India represent the largest countries in the world by population, each totaling more than one billion people.1 These people need food, clean water, energy, roads and housing. China is undergoing a trend toward urbanization, which we believe still has a ways to go and will drive the need for growth in these areas.

在世界上人口最多的国家中,十个有八个是新兴市场,其中,中国和印度是按人口计算全球最大的国家,总人口都超过十亿。[1]这些人口需要食物、清洁用水、能源、道路和房屋。中国正处于城市化进程,我们认为仍有很长的路要走,并将推动这些领域的需求增长。

0615_ChinaUrbanization

While the media has drawn attention to so-called “ghost cities” in China, claiming there has been overbuilding, visitors to China can easily see there remains a need for housing for all these new urban dwellers—and transportation to get them from place to place. The railway network in China is far more limited than that of major developed countries, even much smaller ones. China still needs to invest more in infrastructure; in our view, the game is not over. More roads are needed to accommodate the dramatically increased number of cars and trucks, while more train connections are needed to meet the rising travel demands of China's billion people.

虽然媒体已经关注到中国所谓的“鬼城”,指称当地的建设过度,到访中国的游客仍然很容易会看到城市的新居民都存在住房和交通出行的需求。中国铁路网相比主要发达国家、甚至很小的国家都存在更多更大的局限。中国仍然需要对基础设施作出更多的投入;我们认为,这场博弈尚未结束。中国需要更多的道路来容纳急剧增长的私家车和货车,以及更多的铁路来满足中国十亿人口不断增长的旅行需求。

There certainly is a price cycle in various commodities, but I believe the demand for commodities globally should continue to increase. The price of oil is, of course, particularly volatile, but that price volatility doesn't correlate to the movement in demand. When the price of a barrel of oil plummeted more than 25% in 2014, demand didn't decrease by the same amount. Demand continues to increase. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that in 2014, global daily consumption of petroleum and other liquids grew by 0.9 million barrels/day to average 92.0 million barrels/day, and expects global consumption to grow by 1.3 million barrels/day in 2015 and 2016.2

很多商品都肯定存在一个价格周期,但我认为全球商品需求仍然持续增长。当然,石油价格特别不稳定,但油价波动与需求变化不存在相关性。当油价在二零一四年暴跌超过25%时,需求没有出现相同程度的下跌。需求仍然持续增长。美国能源信息管理局估计,2014年石油和其他液态燃料的全球日均消耗量增长90万桶/日至9千2百万桶/日,并预计在2015年及2015年全球消耗量有望增长130万桶/日。[1]

Oil is not the only product in demand. In China, there has been an explosive growth in automobiles. With more gasoline-powered vehicles comes increased pollution—most of us know about the famous smog in Beijing. Catalytic converters, which contain palladium, help alleviate this pollution problem, so we expect demand for palladium should continue to rise. Incidentally, palladium is one commodity that did not suffer a decline in price in 2014 while many other commodity prices fell.

石油不是唯一有需求的产品。中国的汽车数量急剧增长。随着汽油动力车辆的增加,污染问题也会更加严重——大多数人都知道北京著名的雾霾。含钯元素的催化转换剂有助于缓解这一污染问题,因此,预期对钯的需求将会持续增长。顺带一提,当2014年许多其他商品的价格下跌时,钯是没有受到价格下跌影响的一种商品。

0615_ChinaRailDensity

The 3rd Plenum of China's Communist Party in 2013 announced various reforms related to infrastructure development, including private sector deregulation, resources pricing reform, and improvements in efficiency and resources allocation in state-owned enterprises. China has seen progress made in a number of key areas, as several sectors, including railways, have been opened up to private investment and the process for foreign investment approval has been simplified.

2013年中共第三次全体会议公布多项与基础设施开发有关的改革,包括放宽私营部门的管制、资源定价改革、以及改善国有企业的效益和资源分配。中国在多个关键领域取得了进展,多个部门包括铁路等向私人投资开放,以及外商投资审批流程得到简化。

Some forecasters believe India will be growing even faster than China in the next decade. India is at what I would call the take-off stage; while gross domestic product growth has averaged about 7% over the past 10 years, I think India could be headed toward growth rates of 8%–9% in the decade ahead if reform efforts continue. Like China, India needs infrastructure.

有些预测认为,未来十年印度的增长速度将会超过中国。印度正处于我所称的起飞阶段;虽然过去十年印度的国内生产总值增长率平均达到7%,我认为只要继续推行改革,未来十年的增长率将达到8%-9%。和中国一样,印度也对基础设施存在需求。

Riding the rails in China

Not only do emerging markets need infrastructure improvements, but globally, existing infrastructure in many developed regions has aged and is in need of significant repair, replacement or upgrade. A recent report from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) revealed that the pace of essential structural reforms is slowing in many advanced economies, while at the same time, many emerging economies have been recently stepping up the pace of reforms.3 This accelerated pace of reform reflects the awareness of bottlenecks and growth constraints, and the need to reduce vulnerabilities in countries more sensitive to commodity price fluctuations, the report said. We have seen how the recent drop in oil prices has helped spur reform efforts in some emerging economies that have benefited from lower prices. They, thus, have been able to take advantage of this by removing subsidies, which can be costly for governments.

不仅新兴市场需要完善基础设施,就全球而言,很多发达地区的既有基础设施已经出现老化并需要大量的维修、更换或升级。经合组织(经济合作与发展组织)最近一份报告显示,许多发达经济体的关键结构性改革的步伐有所减慢,而与此同时,近期许多新兴经济体却加快了改革的步伐。[1]该报告称,改革步伐加快反映了他们意识到发展瓶颈和增长局限,并且需要修补那些对商品价格波动较敏感的国家的薄弱环节。我们看到,近期油价下跌能够刺激一些曾经受惠于低油价的新兴经济体加大改革力度。因此,他们得以利用油价下跌的趋势来取消补贴,提供补贴可能让政府付出高昂的代价。

Sharply rising population and increasing wealth, coupled with economic growth and urbanization trends, especially in emerging-market regions, can support the development and accelerating growth of infrastructure assets. Meanwhile, fiscal constraints and low growth rates in many large developed economies could reduce potential government infrastructure spending in developed markets over the next 20 years.

尤其在新兴市场地区,人口急剧膨胀和财富增加,加上经济增长和城市化进程,可以支持基础设施资产的开发和加速增长。与此同时,许多大型发达经济体由于财政限制和低速经济增长,可能削减未来20年政府的潜在基建开支。

We are seeing emerging markets respond to this need for infrastructure both by reforming and expanding at home as well as seeking greater foreign investment, in many cases from other emerging markets. As part of efforts to foster stronger relations with Latin America, China's Premier Li Keqiang visited Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Chile in May, reaching agreements on production capacity cooperation and signing more than 70 cooperative documents in energy, mining, infrastructure, and scientific and technological innovation. The establishment of a US$30 billion fund to support production capacity cooperation was also announced. China and the Eurasian Economic Union, whose members include Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, also signed a joint declaration to begin working on an economic and trade cooperation deal.

我们正目睹,为了回应这一基础设施需求,新兴市场对国内实施了改革和扩张,并寻求更多的外来投资,在许多情况下是来自其他新兴市场的投资。为了促进与拉丁美洲国家的更紧密关系,中国国家总理李克强于五月份到访巴西、哥伦比亚、秘鲁和智利,达成产能合作协议,并签署能源、采矿、基础设施和科技创新领域的70多个合作文件。中国也宣布成立300亿美元的基金,用于支持产能合作。中国也和欧亚经济联盟(成员包括亚美尼亚、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯)签署了联合声明,开始着手一项经济和贸易合作协议。

In April, China's President Xi Jinping visited the frontier market of Pakistan, where various trade, energy and infrastructure agreements were signed as part of a US$46 billion plan toward establishing a China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a network of roads, railways and pipelines.

四月份,中国国家主席习近平到访巴基斯坦这一前沿市场,期间签署多项贸易、能源和基础设施协议,作为建立中巴经济走廊的460亿美元计划的一部分。中巴经济走廊是一个公路、铁路和管道网络。

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China in May where he met with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. In addition to cooperation agreements in sectors such as education and high-speed railways, investment agreements in renewable energy, ports and industrial parks, together worth about US$22 billion, were also signed by the two countries. Last month, Modi also announced a US$1 billion credit line to support infrastructure development in Mongolia.

印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪于五月份到访中国,期间会见了中国国家主席习近平和总理李克强。除了教育和高铁等领域的合作协议,两国也签署了可再生能源、港口和工业园区领域总值约220亿美元的投资协议。上个月,莫迪也宣布发放10亿美元的信贷款项,以支持蒙古的基础设施开发。

We've also seen Brazil recently announce a new series of infrastructure projects, where roads, bridges, tunnels and a number of other projects will be privatized. Brazil has tried to privatize before, but in many cases the terms were too tough and investors were turned off by the prospects of funding unprofitable projects. Given weakness in Brazil's economy today, the government is revising its stance and making the project offerings more attractive to investors. The winning bids will pay the government up front, which will help relieve its budget problem. I believe that with the private sector driving many of these new projects in Brazil, things will move faster and hopefully, the amount of corruption can be reduced. During Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's trip to Brazil, more than 30 agreements worth a combined US$53 billion were signed in a number of sectors including infrastructure, trade, energy and mining.

我们也看到巴西最近宣布一系列全新的基础设施项目,将对道路、桥梁、隧道和其他多个项目进行私有化。巴西以前也曾尝试私有化,但在许多情况下由于条款太苛刻,要为无利可图的项目提供资金,其前景使投资者丧失兴趣。鉴于目前巴西经济疲弱,政府正调整其立场并为投资者提供更具吸引力的项目。中标者需要预先向政府付款,这将有助于减轻政府的预算压力。我们认为,有了私营部门来推动其中许多新项目,工作的进展将会加快,并期望能够降低腐败的程度。在中国国家总理李克强出访巴西期间,签署基础设施、贸易、能源和采矿等多个领域总值530亿美元的30多项协议。

Meanwhile, Thailand has been investing outside its borders, and is the second-largest foreign direct investor in Myanmar behind China, involved in areas from oil and gas exploration to financial services. Myanmar has also granted approvals to projects by investors in Japan, Singapore and South Korea. According to Myanmar's Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA), hundreds of companies in 38 foreign countries have so far invested more than US$55 billion in 12 sectors in Myanmar.4 We think Myanmar has the promise to become a large, dynamic market, and we see lots of potential opportunities there.

此外,泰国作出了境外投资,并成为中国之后缅甸的第二大外国直接投资者,涉及的领域从石油和天然气勘探到金融服务。缅甸也批准日本、新加坡和韩国投资者的项目。根据缅甸投资与公司管理理事会的数据,到目前为止已有来自38个国家的数百家公司在缅甸12个领域投资超过550亿美元。[3]我们认为缅甸有望成为一个大型、活跃的市场,我们看到那里有大量的潜在机会。

No matter where commodity prices are headed, we believe demand for infrastructure in emerging markets will likely continue. For that reason, we continue to be interested in natural resource stocks, as well as companies involved in infrastructure development.

无论商品价格走向如何,我们认为新兴市场对基础设施的需求将会持续。有鉴于此,我们继续看好自然资源类的股票,以及涉及基础设施开发的企业股票。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database, based on 2013 data.

[1]资料来源:世界银行,世界发展指标数据库,基于二零一三年的数据。

2. Source: US Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 7, 2015. There is no assurance that any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[2]资料来源:美国能源信息管理局短期能源展望,二零一五年六月七日。不保证任何估计或预测将会兑现。

3. Source: OECD (2015), “Economic Policy Reforms 2015, Going for Growth,” OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/growth-2015-en

[3]资料来源:经合组织(二零一五年),“二零一五年经济政策改革,力争增长”,经合组织出版社,巴黎。http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/growth-2015-en

4. Source: Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA), as of May 2015.

[4]资料来源:缅甸投资与公司管理理事会,截至二零一五年五月。

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