增长举足轻重
Growth Matters
2091字
2020-01-08 23:32
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火星译客

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As we see it, one of the biggest advantages emerging markets have offered investors is a strong growth story: Over the past decade, growth in emerging markets has outpaced growth in developed markets by more than double. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) looks like it will continue to outperform that of developed markets for at least the next five years, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund.1 We are often asked why economic growth and stock market performance don't always directly correlate in a given year, and if that's the case, does a nation's GDP growth matter at all when it comes to investing in equities? While it's true that growth and stock market performance can be divergent at times, there is no question that growth matters since company earnings depend on general economic growth.

众所周知,新兴市场最大的优势之一是具备强劲的增长:过去十年,新兴市场的增长速度是发达市场的两倍以上。根据国际货币基金组织[1]的估计,至少未来五年,新兴市场的国内生产总值(GDP)将继续领跑发达市场。人们经常询问,在既定的年度内,经济增长和股市表现为何并不直接相关?若果真如此,在进行股票投资时,GDP增长是否重要?尽管增长和股市表现有时可能存在分化,但无疑公司盈利取决于整体的经济增长。

If you look at the breakdown of growth in emerging versus developed markets, you can see emerging markets have grown faster than developed markets for many years. In general, strong growth rates are regarded as a key characteristic of emerging markets. In the past 20 years, there was only one year, 1998, when growth in emerging markets lagged developed markets.2

如果查看新兴与发达市场的增长细分情况,可以看到,多年来新兴市场的增长超过发达市场。整体而言,增长强劲是新兴市场的一大关键特点。过去20年中,只有一年,即1998年,新兴市场的增长落后于发达市场[2]

0715_GDPAdvancedDeveloping

Demographic Advantages

人口优势

Markets in emerging Asia as well as frontier markets in Africa have been growing even faster than the overall average for emerging markets over the past few years, and we expect that trend should continue this year. Rapid advances in technology have helped fuel the growth spurt, as emerging and frontier markets can take advantage of technological advancements while leapfrogging over the development phase; for example, bypassing bank branches and trading floors for electronic transactions. We also think a major reason for this growth  is tied to demographic trends. Younger age groups generally dominate populations in emerging nations in Asia and Africa, in contrast to many parts of the developed world and even more established emerging markets such as China, which are experiencing aging populations. For example, the median age in Malaysia is 28 years and in Kenya, 19 years, while the median age in China is 37, and in Japan and Germany it is 46.3 People under the age of 40 are typically entering the most productive years of their lives; they are actively earning income and starting families. In the process, they are buying a variety of products, from consumer goods to vehicles to homes.

过去几年,亚洲新兴市场和非洲前沿市场的增长甚至超过新兴市场整体的平均水平,我们预期今年这一趋势将会继续。技术的快速进步刺激了急剧的增长,因为新兴和前沿市场可以利用技术进步的优势,在发展阶段实现跳跃式进展;例如,绕过银行分行和交易大厅进行电子交易。我们还认为,这一增长背后的一大主要原因是人口趋势。更年轻的群体是亚洲和非洲新兴市场国家的主要人口,与发达世界甚至是更为成熟的新兴市场如中国形成鲜明的对比,中国目前正在经历人口老龄化的问题。例如,马来西亚的中位数年龄是28岁,肯尼亚是19岁,中国是37岁,德国和日本是46岁[3]。40岁以下的人口一般是人生当中生产效率最高的,他们积极赚取收入和建立家庭。在这一过程中,他们购买各种消费品、汽车和房屋等产品。

Case Study: Argentina

案例研究:阿根廷

Economic growth on a year-by-year basis may not necessarily result in high stock market performance, but over time improving growth should be reflected in corporate earnings. However, that still begs the question of why a country's stock market can often move out of sync with growth trends. Argentina is an interesting case study. Despite undeniable economic malaise, Argentina's stock market was one of the best performers globally in 2014, and the Merval Index is up more than 30% year-to-date in 2015.4

每年的经济增长未必导致股价上涨,但增长的改善会逐渐在企业盈利中体现。然而,这仍然回避了为何股市的发展往往无法和增长趋势一致的问题。阿根廷是一个值得研究的案例。尽管经济不可否认地疲软,但阿根廷股市2014年是全球表现最佳的股市之一,Merval指数2015年年初至今上涨超过30%[4]

If you look at the various economic indicators in Argentina, you find a cocktail of bad news. GDP growth was barely positive in 2014 and is expected to decline in 2015, while inflation (as measured by consumer prices) is expected to increase more than 18% in 2015.5 The government's fiscal accounts have been deteriorating, and it has been pursuing interventionist policies: currency controls, capital controls, and import and export controls. As a foreign investor, you'll find pretty much everything you don't want in Argentina! Meanwhile, the stock market has been doing well. According to our team in the region, part of the reason is because wealthy individuals in Argentina who want to preserve their assets in the country are flocking to stocks, property and gold, viewed as among the most convenient and liquid investments.

如果查看阿根廷各项经济指标,可以看到坏消息比比皆是。2014年GDP增长勉强为正,预期2015年下滑,而通胀(由消费者价格指数衡量)预期2015年增长超过18%[5]。政府的财政账目一直在恶化,并奉行干涉主义政策:货币控制、资本管控、进口和出口控制。作为外国投资者,阿根廷可谓处处设限!与此同时,股市却表现理想。根据我们在该地区的团队分析,部分原因是阿根廷的富人们涌入股市、物业和黄金这些被视为最方便、流动性最强的投资,以实现资产保值。

Additionally, hope for change in Argentina has also likely been contributing to positive stock market performance. Many investors are putting their hopes on political change when the country's general election takes place in October of this year. Argentine stocks were cheap relative to peers in Latin America a few years ago, but given the recent move, that's not generally the case anymore. Remember—the market tends to be forward-thinking, so that's where you see a mismatch with economic statistics, which are backward-looking. We will be watching the election closely for potential opportunities to increase our exposure there.

此外,预期阿根廷的变革也为股市的理想表现作出贡献。今年10月阿根廷将举行大选,很多投资者寄希望于政治上的变革。几年前,阿根廷股价低于拉美同类国家,但鉴于最近的涨势,这一局面已然不再。记住——市场往往具有前瞻性,所以与回顾性的经济数据存在错配。我们将密切留意选举,利用潜在机会增加持仓。

When I was investing in Argentina in the early 1990s, inflation was running at some 1,000%, and it was very difficult to make earnings projections for companies. I had to make investment decisions on different criteria; I'd look at the price-to-book ratio instead of price-to-earnings, for example. People said I was crazy—but sometimes you have to adjust your value orientation when there are distortions in an economy. Looking at the book value of companies enabled us to purchase company assets at what we viewed to be discounted prices, since the stock market was so depressed.

20世纪90年代初投资阿根廷时,通胀高达1000%,很难对企业盈利作出预测。我必须利用不同的标准作出决策;例如,我考察的是市账率而不是市盈率。当时大家觉得很疯狂—— 但是当经济出现扭曲时,必须调整我们的价值导向。考察企业的市账率,使得我们可以按照我们视为存在折让的价格购买公司资产,因为当时的股市过低。

Around this time, I had met with the president of a prominent Latin American newspaper and broadcasting conglomerate. This independent group was very brave in opposing Argentina's government. The government came down hard on it, even restricting the supply of newsprint for its newspaper. After studying the situation and talking with management, I thought the company would ultimately survive, so I felt comfortable investing in it. It's a case where, after you have done your investigations on the management and have confidence in them, you should take a long-term perspective on the situation to get past a difficult period.

这一次,我见到了拉美一家知名报纸和广播集团的总裁。这家独立的集团十分勇敢地反对阿根廷政府。为此,政府予以强烈的反击,甚至限制其报纸的纸张供应。在研究当前的局势和与管理层讨论后,我认为该公司最终可以渡过危局,所以我确信可以投资。这种情况是在对管理层进行调研并树立信心之后,对局势有一个长远的看法,相信他们可以渡过艰难时期。

Investment Themes

投资主题

Of course, we have also found a number of markets where geopolitical or other events have frightened investors and caused short-term stock market selloffs, while GDP growth continued at a good clip. Since we still believe growth matters, the challenge for us is how to take advantage of growth trends when making investments. In many cases, we focus on the banking sector because those stocks tend to be the entities that generally reflect the health of an economy. The other area of interest to us is consumer goods—mass-market products like beer, soft drinks, snacks, instant noodles, and the like. These are the kinds of items consumers buy at an increasing pace in emerging and frontier markets when they have extra cash to spend. A couple of years ago, we visited a soft-drink bottler in Nigeria and asked them who their biggest competitor was. Usually you know the answer—it would be a rival soft-drink company. However, in this case, the answer was additional time for cell phones, which may seem surprising but really makes sense when you think about it. Consumers in many of these markets have limited money to spend, so companies are competing for a certain price ticket. A consumer may have to choose between buying a soft drink or time to talk on the phone.

当然,我们有很多市场因为地缘政治或其他事件而令投资者恐慌,导致短期的市场抛售,但与此同时,GDP增长持续理想。由于我们仍然认为增长起着举足轻重的作用,我们的挑战是如何在投资时利用增长趋势。在很多情况下,我们专注于银行板块,因为这些股票所代表企业反应的是经济的健康程度。另一个值得关注的领域是消费品—— 大众市场产品,如啤酒、软饮料、零食和方便面等等。在新兴市场和前沿市场,当消费者拥有额外的现金可供支出时,购买这些产品的数量日益增加。很多年前,我们访问了尼日利亚软饮料生产商,询问谁是他们最大的竞争对手。通常大家会认为是作为竞争对手的软饮料公司。但这一次的答案出乎意料,是手机通话时间的增加,但仔细思索却的确如此。这些市场的消费者能够作出的支出有限,所以企业竞争的是某一价格下的市场。消费者可能在购买软饮料或者聊电话之间作出选择。

So, we have found that companies in the consumer or retail space with a high market share can benefit from rising consumption and GDP per capita. These investments are particularly attractive if profit margins can be improved. We also see areas in the building industry, such as cement, as having a more direct relationship with GDP growth than some other types of companies. Of course, even in a fast-growing economy there will be losers as well as winners, so we need to identify those companies we believe are capable of benefiting from the economic growth.

总之,我们发现在消费品和零售领域、拥有较高市场份额的公司能够从消费及人均GDP的增长中获利。如果利润率改善,那么这些投资尤其吸引人。我们还发现,建筑业如水泥领域与GDP增长的关系,较部分其他类型的公司更为直接。当然,即便在快速增长的经济体,也有成王败寇,所以我们需要识别能够从经济增长中获益的企业。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: International Monetary Fund Economic Outlook Database, April 2015. There is no assurance that any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[1]资料来源:国际货币基金组织经济展望数据库,2015年4月。不保证所有的估计或预测都能实现。

2. Ibid.

[2]同上。

3. Source: CIA, The World Factbook, 2014 estimate.

[3] 资料来源:中央情报局《The World Factbook》,2014年估计。

4. Source: Bloomberg, year-to-date through June 22, 2015. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[4]资料来源:彭博资讯,年初至2015年6月22日。指数未受管理,不可以直接投资。过去的表现不能保证未来的业绩。

5. Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015. There is no assurance any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[5]资料来源:国际货币基金组织世界经济展望数据库,2015年4月。不保证任何估计或预测都能实现。

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