人民币的崛起:人民币将成为全球储备货币?
The Rise of the Renminbi: Will China’s Yuan Become a Global Reserve Currency?
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2020-01-08 23:27
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In recent months, China has stepped up a longstanding campaign for its currency (officially called the renminbi [RMB] but also referred to as the yuan), to be included as a part of the composition of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) Special Drawing Rights (SDR). While the media is abuzz with the potential market implications of China's currency achieving status as an international reserve currency—one which can be held by central banks and other major financial institutions to pay off international debt obligations—at one level, the issue is somewhat arcane. SDRs are a synthetic quasi-currency made up of a basket of widely traded currencies. They are used by the IMF for accounting purposes and as a medium for allocating assets among member countries. They play almost no role in private trade and finance. They do, however, provide the IMF's approval that a currency has the qualities necessary to be an international reserve currency. Indeed, SDR currencies are automatically regarded as acceptable reserve currencies, whereas other currencies have to meet criteria for full convertibility to have the same status.

最近几个月,中国加快了其货币(官方名称为人民币,但也称为元)的一项长期的运动,就是成为国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权(SDR)的成分货币。虽然媒体对于人民币实现国际储备货币地位——一种可由中央银行和其他主要金融机构持有用于清偿国际债务的货币——潜在的市场影响议论纷纷,在某种程度上,这个问题有点深奥。特别提款权是一种合成的准货币,由一篮子广泛交易的货币组成。它被国际货币基金组织用于记账,并作为在成员国之间分配资产的一种工具。它几乎不用在私人交易和融资上。然而,特别提款权代表了国际货币基金组织的批准,证明有关货币具备成为国际储备货币的必备特质。事实上,特别提款权货币已被自动视为公认的储备货币,而其他货币必须达到完全自由兑换的标准才具有同等的地位。

Until recently, the Chinese government placed major restrictions on the use of the RMB. The authorities appeared to consider the control that an insulated currency conferred on domestic monetary and fiscal policy to be more important than the potential benefits from full participation in global financial markets. In recent years, however, the government attitude has changed, with market-oriented economic reforms and a more outward-looking foreign policy including measures to encourage wide RMB usage.

在不久之前,中国政府还对人民币的使用实施严格限制。当局似乎认为一种与外界隔绝的货币对国内货币和财政政策所带来的控制要比全面参与全球金融市场所带来的潜在好处更加重要。但近年来,政府态度发生了转变,推行以市场为导向的经济改革和更加外向的外交政策,包括采取鼓励人民币广泛使用的措施。

The four currencies with SDR status—the US dollar, the euro, the UK pound sterling and the Japanese yen—currently make up the overwhelming majority of global international currency reserves. As a knock-on effect, they dominate international bond markets and global financial transactions. In recent years, the rising share of global trade accounted for by emerging markets, and by China in particular, has left this state of affairs looking somewhat anachronistic. The Chinese government had campaigned for RMB inclusion in SDRs in 2010, at the most recent of the IMF's reviews of the SDR structure, but at that time, the bid was rejected. In our view, prospects for success at the meeting scheduled for October 2015 appear high.

具备特别提款权地位的四种货币——美元、欧元、英镑和日元——目前构成了全球占绝大多数比例的国际货币储备。此外,作为连锁效应,这些货币支配着国际债券市场和全球金融交易。近年来,新兴市场特别是中国在全球贸易中所占的份额持续扩大,使这种格局显得有点不合时宜。根据国际货币基金组织最近对特别提款权结构的回顾,中国政府在2010年已经争取把人民币纳入特别提款权,但当时被投票否决。我们认为,在预定于2015年十月举行的会议上,人民币成功通过的希望似乎较高。

The Potential Benefits for China

对中国的潜在利好

Reserve currency status and RMB internationalization could confer a number of significant benefits on China, including potentially lowering borrowing costs and facilitating overseas expansion by Chinese companies, allowing cross-border contracts in major commodities such as iron ore to be priced in RMB, thereby easing foreign exchange risks arising from pricing in US dollars, and above all, opening the way for a portion of China's enormous foreign exchange reserves to be redeployed in more economically productive directions. The latter measure could conceivably stimulate economic growth at the margin both in China and on a global scale. Other reserve currency countries have much lower reserves relative to their gross domestic product than China does—the United States is able effectively to operate without reserves at present— while overseas investment projects such as China's ambitious “one belt, one road” and “New Silk Road” initiatives to build trading infrastructure with neighboring states, as well as private initiatives, would represent potentially attractive new uses for resources that are at present tied up in currency deposits and Treasury bills.

储备货币地位和人民币国际化可能为中国带来诸多重要好处,包括潜在降低借贷成本及促进中国企业的海外扩张,允许铁矿石等主要大宗商品的跨境合同以人民币作为计价货币,从而减轻美元定价所引起的外汇风险,最重要的是,为中国庞大的外汇储备中的一部分以更具经济效益的方式调整部署开放了大门。可想而知,后者能够刺激中国乃至全球范围内更进一步的经济增长。与中国相比,其他储备货币国家的储备占其国内生产总值的比例远远更少——美国当前无需储备也能有效运作——而中国的“一带一路”和“新丝绸之路”宏伟倡议等旨在修建与邻国相连贸易基础设施的海外投资项目,以及各种私营部门计划,能够为捆绑在外币存款和美国国库债券中的资源带来有吸引力的新用途。

For a currency to be included in SDRs, the IMF primarily requires that it be important in terms of its share in global trade, but also that it is “freely used,” a term further broken down into “widely used” and “widely traded.” In 2010, the RMB already featured widely in global trade, but the IMF decided that the currency did not meet the “freely used” criterion. At that time, the RMB was not an internationally convertible currency. Its exchange rate against other currencies was tightly controlled by the Chinese government at a level believed by many commentators to represent a significant undervaluation, while an unsophisticated local banking system lacked the ability to provide many of the instruments required by international companies to manage their currency exposures. A form of the RMB, called “offshore RMB” was available through a few Hong Kong-based banks, but it was cumbersome to trade in compared with other currencies, and its value differed from that of the onshore RMB on foreign exchange markets.

要成为特别提款权货币,国际货币基金组织的主要要求是在全球贸易中占有重要份额,并要求可以“自由使用”,而“自由使用”进一步细分为“广泛使用”和“广泛交易”两重涵义。2010年,人民币已经在全球交易中广泛使用,但国际货币基金组织认为该货币尚未达到“自由使用”的标准。当时,人民币不是国际上自由兑换的货币。人民币对其他货币的汇率受到中国政府的严密操控,很多评论家相信这种操控程度已经使人民币币值被严重低估,而简单的地方银行体系并不能提供跨国公司管理其货币风险所需的多种工具。人民币的另一种形式被称为“离岸人民币”,可在少数几家位于香港的银行使用,但用在交易时相比其他货币显得较为繁琐,而且其币值也不同于在岸人民币在外汇市场上的币值。

A good deal has changed since 2010, and the process of change has been accelerating. The number of offshore centers where RMB is traded has proliferated, while in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ), currency transactions can be executed between mainland and associated offshore companies with few restrictions. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been moving toward reforms in the country's banking system by freeing interest rates and by introducing a deposit insurance system, two important milestones on the road to creating a system fully able to participate in international financial flows. Importantly, many authorities, including the IMF, believe that the RMB is fairly valued. Reserve currency status would imply abandoning the current RMB-dollar peg.

自2010年以来,情况发生了重大变化,改革的进程不断加快。采用人民币交易的离岸中心数目激增,而在上海自由贸易区(简称“自贸区”),内地企业和关联离岸公司之间只需遵循少量限制就可以进行货币交易。与此同时,在迈向国内银行体系改革的进程中,中国人民银行(简称“中国人行”)实行了放宽利率和引入存款保险制度的措施,从而在创建一个全面参与国际金融资金流的系统进程中树立了两个重要里程碑。重要的是,国际货币基金组织等许多权威机构相信人民币具有公平的估值。储备货币地位将意味着当前人民币与美元挂钩的关系终止。

A New Currency Connection

货币新联系

The opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in the latter part of 2014, allowing foreign investors to freely invest in eligible Chinese A shares previously restricted to only Chinese citizens or foreigners with special permits, was seen as a major move in internationalizing the RMB through allowing mainland investors to acquire stocks on the internationally traded Hong Kong markets. The initial impact was lower than expected, however, with only small percentages of permitted daily trading quotas being utilized. The situation changed in April 2015 with the announcement of measures to permit mainland mutual fund managers to buy into Hong Kong stocks (that were trading at markedly lower valuations). Restrictions on use of the Stock Connect by individuals were also eased. As details of the move filtered out, use of the Stock Connect rose sharply, such that trading quotas were exceeded on some occasions and remained well above prior levels. In May, we also saw the announcement of a planned “Mutual Recognition” program that would open the way for mainland and Hong Kong mutual fund managers to offer their funds in each other's markets. As mutual recognition comes into operation, we believe Chinese mainland investors would be most impacted, given wider investment choices. These recent developments could also help the Shanghai stock market become much more closely integrated into global financial markets, markedly expanding the effective global use of RMB.

在2014年下半年开通的沪港通被视为人民币国际化进程中的一项重大举措。该机制允许外国投资者自由投资于原先仅限具备特定许可的中国公民或外籍人士才能投资的合格中国A股,,以及允许内地投资者在面向国际交易的香港市场上买卖股票。然而,初期的影响力低于预期,在获准的每日交易额度中,只有小部分得到利用。2015年4月,随着政府宣布允许内地基金经理买入香港股票(估值明显更低)的措施,情况发生了转变。而个人使用沪港通的限制也得到放宽。随着该措施的细节公布,沪港通的使用量急剧上升,使得交易额度在某些情况下出现超量的情况,并持续远高于过去的水平。五月份,政府也宣布计划推出“基金互认”方案,为中港两地的基金经理在对方市场上推出基金开启了渠道。随着基金互认生效,我们相信中国内地投资者将最为受益,因为带来了更多的投资选择。最近的这些改革进展也有助于上海股票市场更紧密地融入全球金融市场,从而显著扩大人民币在全球范围内的有效使用。

Some remaining areas of uncertainty surrounding direct investment in China—in particular, lingering fears that a “suspended” capital gains tax could be reinstated and the possibility that a “short swing” law could potentially lead to capital gains from larger investor positions in individual companies being expropriated—are tempering our enthusiasm for utilizing the new freedoms at present. In addition, recent government intervention in the stock market and suspension of stocks during a sharp market downturn could have an impact on the reform process and the progress made toward RMB gaining international reserve currency status. However, we do feel there is political will toward economic reform in China, so such issues may not persist.

关于直接投资中国市场的其他一些不明朗方面,尤其是,一直以来对于“暂缓开征”的资本利得税可能被重新提上日程的忧虑,以及“短线交易”法规的颁布可能会导致个别企业中的大型投资者持仓所赚取的资本收益遭到剥夺,这些因素削弱了我们利用现有全新自由度的热情。此外,近期在股票市场急挫期间,中国政府出手干预市场和暂停股票交易的做法可能会对人民币实现国际储备货币地位的改革进程和所取得的进展产生影响。然而,我们确实感受到中国推行经济改革的政治意愿,因此这些问题可能不会一直持续。

Going forward, the PBOC is offering a move to full “managed convertibility” over the remainder of 2015, predicting the opening of a stock connect between Hong Kong and China's other major stock exchange at Shenzhen and extending the currency trading freedoms introduced in Shanghai to other FTZs and eventually the whole country. In addition, we think the introduction of the planned China International Payment System (CIPS), setting up a worldwide clearing house for international RMB payments, markedly increases the ease of use of the currency, placing it more on a par with other global currencies. Some controls would be retained in such fields as the monitoring of money laundering and terrorist financing, the avoidance of excessive foreign debt and currency mismatches, the management of short-term speculative flows, and the improvement of balance of payments statistics and monitoring.

展望未来,中国人行将于2015年下半年推出全面“有管理的可兑换”措施,预测将会开通香港和深圳股票交易所之间的股票互通,并把上海推出的货币交易自由措施扩大到其他自贸区,并最终覆盖全国。此外,我们认为中国国际支付系统(CIPS)计划的引入,为人民币国际支付创建了一个全球结算场所,显著提高了人民币使用的宽松度,进一步把人民币放到了与其他全球货币平起平坐的位置。在这方面,某些管制措施可能会保留,如反洗钱和恐怖融资的监控、避免外债过剩和货币错配、短期投机资金的管理、以及改善国际收支平衡统计和监测等。

Furthermore, the IMF will likely be aware that the prospect of full membership in the world financial system is a significant factor driving the financial reform program in China, and it might be reluctant to risk providing ammunition for domestic opponents of the changes, thus complicating a process that appears very much in the interests of Western investors as well as the Chinese themselves. A strong hint of the direction of IMF thinking came in March with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde's comment that the RMB's inclusion in SDRs was a question of “when, not if,” but there could be some caution in light of recent market events.

此外,国际货币基金组织可能会意识到,成为世界金融体系中的正式成员是推动中国金融改革的一个重要因素,中国政府不会冒险去为国内反对改革的人士提供机会,避免使得看似极其符合西方投资者和中国投资者自身利益的这样一个过程变得复杂化。对于国际货币基金组织的思维方向,一个有力暗示是在三月份,国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)评价人民币纳入特别提款权是一个“何时,而不是能否”的问题,但鉴于近期发生的市场事件,可能需要保持一定警惕。

International businesses appear to be “voting with their feet” on the matter of RMB internationalization. In a survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit for the international lawyers Allen & Overy, some 50% of executives who responded anticipated at least a doubling of RMB use, while 45% had used the currency in a cross-border transaction in the past year, as opposed to only 21% in the previous 12 months. Forty-nine percent were planning to use RMB to fund acquisitions. Fewer than 20% had been using the currency for such purposes for more than 12 months.1 In our view, further movement toward full convertibility could see the process accelerate. Thus, the end of 2015 could see a transformed international financial landscape, with the launch of the Asian Infrastructure Bank, the New Development Bank and CIPS, accompanied by the admission of the RMB to the IMF's SDRs, clearing the way for it to become one of the world's principal reserve currencies. At the same time, China's A share stock market could be well on the way to becoming a component of global indexes, a move likely only delayed rather than blocked by the recent decision by MSCI to exclude Chinese shares at least until 2016. China would thus become far more tied into, and significant in the global financial system than is the case at the moment. We believe that these developments, and the changes that have made them possible, represent a major long-term opportunity for international investors and will greatly raise the status of emerging-market economies as a whole.

国际企业似乎已经用实际行动支持了人民币国际化的趋势。由经济学人智库为安理国际律师事务所(Allen & Overy)所作的调查显示,大约50%的受访高管预期人民币使用量至少增长一倍,而45%在去年已经使用人民币进行跨境交易,而此前12个月的比例仅为21%。49%曾计划使用人民币作为收购货币。但是,在过去超过12个月的时间里,只有不到20%使用了人民币作为收购货币。[1]我们认为,人民币进一步走向完全自由兑换将有助于推动该进程的加快发展。因此,随着亚洲基础设施投资银行、新开发银行和中国国际支付系统的出台,并伴随人民币纳入国际货币基金组织的特别提款权,为其成为世界主要储备货币之一清除障碍,到2015年年底国际金融格局可能发生改变。与此同时,中国A股市场可能很快就会成为全球股市指标的一个组成部分,而近期摩根士丹利决定至少在2015年之前都不会把中国股市纳入的做法很可能只会延迟而无法阻止这个进程。因此,中国与全球金融体系的联系将会变得比目前远远更加紧密,并成为当中的重要组成成分。我们相信,这些事态发展和促成这些事实的一系列改革为国际投资者带来了重要的长线机会,并将大幅提升新兴市场经济体的整体地位。

However, recent actions by the Chinese government to prop up the market and influence market participants could weigh heavily on the ability of the market to attain international respectability. We believe the index creators will likely be very cautious in regards to putting a heavy weighting on Chinese A shares. So, we can't expect very much in the short term, but in the longer term we believe that the Chinese market will mature and become an important part of global portfolios.

然而,近期中国政府支撑市场及影响市场参与者的行动可能会拖累中国市场所能获得的国际声望。我们认为,指数制定者可能会对是否给予中国A股较大的权重非常谨慎。因此,短期内我们没有太高的期望,但长远而言,我们相信中国市场会走向成熟,并成为全球投资组合的重要成分。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

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重要的法律信息

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: “Generation ¥, RMB The new global currency,” an Economist Intelligence Unit report, commissioned by Allen & Overy, 21 April 2015.

[1]“人民币时代,新任全球货币”,经济学人智库报告,安理国际律师事务所委托,二零一五年四月二十一日。

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