建设通向巴基斯坦未来的走廊
Building Corridors to the Future in Pakistan
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2020-01-07 17:09
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Pakistan is an example of a country many investors have shunned due to negative news and perceptions, but our take is that often things aren't always as sensational as may be reported. We do know that we have found some well-run companies in which to invest. We also believe that Pakistan will attract wider investor interest in the coming years for a number of reasons.

由于受到各种负面消息和观念的误导,许多投资者会对某些国家敬而远之,巴基斯坦就是这样一个例子,但我们认为事实往往并非新闻报道的那样耸人听闻。实际上,我们已在这里找到了一些管理良好的公司进行投资。此外,由于众多原因,我们也认为未来数年巴基斯坦将会吸引更广泛的投资者关注。

While Pakistan is currently classified as a frontier market, index provider MSCI announced in June that it would consider adding the MSCI Pakistan Index to the review list for its potential reclassification to emerging market status as part of the 2016 Annual Market Classification Review.1 We approach investing on a stock-by-stock basis, so in terms of our investment process, we don't really pay too much attention to these sorts of index changes. However, in the eyes of global investors, this potential change could bring heightened attention to Pakistan, along with greater international asset flows. Moreover, the consideration of the status upgrade reaffirms the ongoing efforts by the government and the potential we see in the country.

虽然巴基斯坦目前被归类为“前沿市场”,但指数提供商摩根士丹利(MSCI)于6月份宣布,作为《2016年市场归类评估》的其中一部分,公司将考虑对摩根士丹利巴基斯坦指数进行评估,以审定是否将其列作重新归类为“新兴市场”的潜在对象[1]。我们的投资方法是以个股为基准,因此就我们的投资流程而言,我们并不十分在意这类指数调整。然而,以全球投资者的视野来看,这项潜在调整有望使巴基斯坦成为关注焦点,并吸引更多的国际资产流入。此外,市场地位提高是对该国政府持续努力的肯定,也证明了我们所预测的该国所具备的潜力。

We have been investing in Pakistan for a number of years, and see it as an overlooked investment destination with attractive valuations due to negative macro sentiment. Pakistan has benefited from an improving growth outlook, continued efforts toward fiscal consolidation, steady progress in achieving structural reforms under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program and ongoing support from regional partners.

我们对巴基斯坦的投资已有多年,我们认为它是一个估值极具吸引力的投资目的地,但由于负面的宏观情绪影响,该国常被投资者忽视。巴基斯坦主要受惠于经济增长前景改善、当局继续致力于财政整合、根据国际货币基金组织计划实施的结构性改革取得稳定进展以及地区合作伙伴的持续支持。

China-Pakistan Cooperation

中巴合作

China and Pakistan recently signed trade, energy and infrastructure agreements worth US$28 billion as part of a US$46 billion plan toward establishing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a combination of cooperative initiatives and projects that include connectivity, information network infrastructure, energy, industries and industrial parks, agricultural development and poverty alleviation, tourism and financial cooperation.2 Infrastructure projects associated with the CPEC, including the development of a deep-sea port offering direct access to the Indian Ocean and beyond, should help strengthen trade and investments in the region. China and Pakistan have a friendly partnership, and officials in China have dubbed the CPEC the flagship project of the broader “One Belt, One Road,” initiative, an ambitious plan to broaden China's market connections to the rest of the world.

最近,中国与巴基斯坦就贸易、能源及基础设施建设等方面签署总值280亿美元的协议,这是一项关于建立中巴经济走廊(CPEC)计划的一部分,该计划总值460亿美元,综合多项合作措施和项目,包括交通连接、信息网络基础设施建设、能源、工业和工业园、农业发展和扶贫、旅游和金融合作等领域[2]。中巴经济走廊相关的基础设施项目包括开发一座深海港口,以提供对印度洋及其他海域的直接连接,将有助增强该地区的贸易和投资。中国与巴基斯坦拥有友好的合作伙伴关系,中国官方将中巴经济走廊列为“一带一路”计划的旗舰项目,这项宏伟的计划旨在拓宽中国市场与全球其他地区的联系。

0815_Pakistan_corridor

The announcement of these wide-ranging projects and the possibility of Pakistan's move to emerging market status have stabilized the Pakistani economy and helped trigger gains in Pakistan's stock market in recent years.

公布这些范围广泛的项目以及巴基斯坦有望取得新兴市场地位,这是近年来巴基斯坦经济保持稳定以及股市持续上升的重要原因。

The Pakistani stock market has been one of the top-performing markets in the last five years (ended June 2015).3 The MSCI Pakistan Index has more than doubled with a 129% return during that time frame, compared with a 45% return for the MSCI Frontier Index and 22% increase in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in US dollar terms.4 In our view, despite that strong performance, valuations of Pakistani stocks still remain relatively attractive. As of end-June 2015, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio of the MSCI Pakistan Index was 10 times, versus 11 times for the MSCI Frontier Index and 14 times for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.5

过去五年(截至2015年6月),巴基斯坦股市是表现最佳的市场之一[3]。在此期间,摩根士丹利巴基斯坦指数上升超过一倍,升幅达到129%,而同期的摩根士丹利前沿市场指数的升幅为45%,摩根士丹利新兴市场指数升幅为22%(以美元计)[4]。我们认为,虽然表现如此强劲,但巴基斯坦股市估值仍具有较大吸引力。截至2015年6月底,摩根士丹利巴基斯坦指数的连续市盈率为10倍,而摩根士丹利前沿市场指数为11倍,摩根士丹利新兴市场指数为14倍[5]

Improving Fundamentals—and Fighting Terrorism

基本面改善 — 及打击恐怖主义

The country's macroeconomic environment has been improving in recent years. In recent months, easing inflation has allowed Pakistan's central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate to its lowest level in 42 years. The IMF currently forecasts gross domestic product growth in Pakistan of 4.3% this year and 4.7% in 2016, up from 2.6% in 2010.6 The fiscal situation has also been improving, supported by multilateral disbursements in recent years as well as a recent international Sukuk issuance.7 More recently, lower oil prices have also improved the country's trade balance, although exports have been impacted by lower cotton prices and a stronger rupee.

近几年来,该国的宏观环境持续改善。最近几个月,由于通胀缓解,巴基斯坦央行已将基准利率降至42年来的最低水平。国际货币基金组织目前预测巴基斯坦今年的国内生产总值增长为4.3%,2016年为4.7%,高于2010年的2.6%[6]。财政状况也持续改善,主要受惠于近年来实施的多边支付协议以及近期在国际市场上发行的伊斯/兰债券[7]。虽然出口受到棉花价格下跌及卢比汇率走强的影响,但最近的油价下跌也有助改善该国的贸易平衡。

Elsewhere, we believe government efforts on expenditure control and divestments have been positive, but the government will need to remain committed to the economic and structural reform program. For foreign investors, the most important concerns are security and political stability. An internal anti-terrorism drive was made in the wake of the tragic Peshawar incident in December 2014, which targeted schoolchildren. We think these efforts need to be maintained over the longer term to develop a better security climate for businesses and the society as a whole. In the political environment, delays in the implementation of reforms or deterioration in the political or security situation could adversely impact the country's macroeconomic development and fiscal position, hinder investment and weaken investor confidence.

其他方面,我们认为政府在控制开支及撤资方面的努力已产生积极作用,但政府仍需要坚持实施经济及结构性改革计划。对于外国投资者而言,最大的忧虑在于安全和政局稳定问题。在2014年12月白沙瓦发生一起针对学生的惨案之后,巴基斯坦在国内实施了反恐行动。我们认为当局仍需在这些方面保持长期努力,从而为商业和全社会营造更安全的氛围。在政治环境方面,推迟实施改革或者政治或安全局势恶化将对该国的宏观经济发展及财政状况产生不利影响,并阻碍投资及削弱投资者的信心。

From a business perspective, the energy situation is another area of concern and also opportunity. Energy sector reforms need to be accelerated, including capital investments in every aspect of electric power: generation, distribution and transmission. Electricity tariff revisions and reduced electricity subsidies appear positive. Of course, those reforms can be more easily implemented now that prices of oil and gas have been coming down. We think it's an ideal time for Pakistan to implement reforms that will put electric power supply on a sound financial footing, enabling adequate supply at a reasonable price for local businesses that need to be internationally competitive.

从商业角度看,能源状况是另一个值得忧虑的领域,同时也是机遇所在。能源行业改革需要加快,包括电力行业各个方面的资本投资:发电、配电及输电。电价调整及减少电费补贴将带来利好。当然,由于石油和天然气价格已经降低,这些改革现在将更容易实施。我们认为目前正是巴基斯坦实施改革的理想时机,这将为电力供应行业奠定稳健的财政基础,从而能够以合理价格为亟需提高国际竞争力的本地企业提供充沛的电力供应。

Despite a number of ongoing challenges, we see many reasons for a brighter future for Pakistan.

尽管持续面临诸多挑战,我们认为仍有许多理由相信巴基斯坦的前途将会更加光明。

Chomments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: MSCI, “Result of MSCI 2015 Reclassification Review,” June 9, 2015.

[1] 资料来源:摩根士丹利,《摩根士丹利二零一五年重新归类评估结果》,二零一五年六月九日。

2. Source: Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform, Government of Pakistan.

[2] 资料来源:巴基斯坦政府规划、发展及改革部。

3. Source: MSCI. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[3] 资料来源:摩根士丹利。指数未经管理,不能直接投资于指数。过往表现并非未来业绩的保证。请浏览www.franklintempletondatasources.com 以了解更多关于指数提供商的信息。

4. Ibid.

[4] 同上。

5. The price-to-earnings ratio is the current market price of a company share divided by the earnings per share of the company.

[5] 市盈率是指公司股票当前市价除以该公司的每股盈利。

6. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2015. There is no assurance that any forecast will be realized.

[6] 资料来源:国际货币基金组织世界经济展望数据库,二零一五年四月。并不保证任何预测将会实现。

7. Sukuk are Islamic financial certificates similar to bonds in Western financial markets that comply with Islamic religious law (Sharia).

[7] 伊斯/兰债券是一种根据伊斯/兰宗教法律(伊斯/兰教法)发行的金融凭证,类似于西方金融市场的债券。

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