对市场调整需保持头脑冷静
On Market Corrections, and Keeping a Calm Head
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2020-01-07 16:33
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火星译客

本帖还有中文 (简体) 、荷兰文、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

The global markets have experienced a late summer swoon, blamed on factors including concerns about slowing growth in China and the impact of a potential increase in US interest rates this autumn. Whatever the reason, we think it is important to put these types of market corrections in context, remain calm and look for potential opportunities.

今年夏末,全球市场遭遇了一场动荡,主要归咎于市场担忧中国经济放缓以及美国今年秋季加息将带来的潜在影响。无论是何原因,我们认为最重要的是从宏观角度看待这类市场调整,并保持冷静及寻找潜在机会。

We don't know for sure whether the market rout has ended, or has further to go. We would note that many of the world's stock markets have not seen a significant correction in many years. Individual markets like Brazil or Russia are down more than 30% this year, but many others have not experienced losses that we would classify as being in a bear market. General pessimism and uncertainty prevails in markets right now, so it is possible some markets could fall further before we see stabilization. Nevertheless, over the last 20 years or so, our team has witnessed a general increase in volatility in all markets (equity, commodities and fixed income) brought on, we think, by increased use of derivatives and the strong influence of changing government policies spread by an exponential increase in news flow on the Internet.

我们无法确定本轮市场波动是否已经终结,或者将继续波动。我们需要指出的是,全球各大股市已多年未出现大幅调整。巴西或俄罗斯等个别市场今年已下跌逾30%,但其他许多股市尚未出现能够被归类为熊市的跌幅。目前各市场普遍弥漫着悲观及不确定情绪,因此有些市场可能仍需要经过进一步下跌后才会企稳。然而,在过去20多年里,我们的团队见证过由于衍生工具的使用增加以及政府政策变化带来强烈影响,并在互联网消息传播呈迅猛增长的情况下,导致所有市场(股市、商品及债券)普遍波动加剧的情况。

在这种环境下,我的主要观点是什么?在其他人都急于卖出的情况下,别害怕买入。但同时需要谨记的是,买入的最佳时机是在所有卖方已经完成抛售的时候——说来容易,做起来难!

尽管如此,在利用目前这种市场调整时我们都会非常谨慎,并非常细心地为投资组合选取股票。目前,我们对中国及其他多个新兴市场国家的消费主导型股票非常感兴趣,因为我们认为这是长线增长机遇所在。

We do know valuations in a number of markets and sectors were getting quite expensive, so this market downturn isn't all that surprising to us. Most notably in China, it was clear to us that the domestic A-Share market had seen intense speculation that had taken over and pushed that market up to unsustainable highs in record time on the back of government encouragement. With the inevitable denouement taking place, Chinese investors are now complaining about their market losses and the government has been active in trying to revive the market's fortune.

我们知道许多市场及行业的估值已经偏高,因此本次市场下跌并非完全出乎我们预料。特别是中国,我们很清楚由于政府的鼓励,国内A股市场严重的投机现象已将股市推升到不可持续的高位。在结局不可避免的情况下,中国投资者对市场下跌怨声载道,而政府也在积极尝试重振市场升势。

China's central bank has cut interest rates this week (the fifth rate cut since November), and has loosened reserve requirements. There isn't a whole lot central bankers can do when the money that is already in the system isn't being put back into the market; not only because confidence has been lost but also because of various prudential requirements, the banks have not increased lending. China's central bank hopes its latest measures will enable the release of money from the banking system.

中国央行本周再度减息(去年11月以来第五次减息),并下调存款准备金率。在金融体系的大量资金未被投入市场的情况下,并非很多央行都能这样做;不仅因为市场已丧失信心,而且由于各种谨慎的规定,银行并未增加放贷。中国央行希望最新的这项措施能够促使金融体系将资金释放出来。

My main message during times like these? Don't be afraid to buy when everyone else is selling. But remember also that the best time to buy is when all the sellers have finished their selling—which may be easier said than done!

在这种环境下,我的主要观点是什么?在其他人都急于卖出的情况下,别害怕买入。但同时需要谨记的是,买入的最佳时机是在所有卖方已经完成抛售的时候---说来容易,做起来难!

Bulls and Bears and Opportunities

牛熊与机遇

While market declines can be painful for investors, we like to view them as periods of opportunity; we look to pick up bargains in anticipation of an eventual market recovery.

虽然市场下跌会让投资者感到痛苦,但我们认为这是机遇期;我们将致力发掘估值低廉的股票,以待市场最终回升。

I have studied stock markets in emerging countries and found that their bull markets have generally lasted longer than their bear markets, and the bull markets have tended to go up more in percentage terms than bear markets went down.1 Of course, how emerging markets behaved in the past does not necessarily predict how they will behave in the future, but I believe one must take a long-term view and average your investments over a period of time—attempting to time the market can be a frustrating exercise. It can take fortitude to invest when the outlook is bleak and others are selling, but that's often when the best values can be uncovered—if you do your homework.

我已对新兴市场国家的股市进行研究,并发现牛市持续时间通常比熊市更长,而且按百分比计,牛市的涨幅大于熊市跌幅[1]。当然,新兴市场过去的走势未必能够反映未来的表现,但我认为投资者必须保持长线眼光,并将投资风险分摊在一段时期内——因为尝试捕捉市场时机通常会让人大失所望。在前景黯淡以及其他人纷纷卖出的情况下进行投资需要保持坚毅,但这种时候往往能够发掘最佳的价值,前提是你需要做足功课。

That said, we use market corrections like the one we are experiencing to very cautiously and very selectively pick up stocks for our portfolios. Right now, we are particularly interested in consumer-oriented stocks in China and a number of other emerging market countries, because that is where we see growth long term.

尽管如此,在利用目前这种市场调整时我们都会非常谨慎,并非常细心地为投资组合选取股票。目前,我们对中国以及其他多个新兴市场国家的消费主导型股票非常感兴趣,因为我们认为这是长线增长机遇所在。

0815_BullBear

Our Views on China Haven't Changed

我们对中国的观点并未改变

Despite recent market volatility, we consider the long-term outlook for China's market and economy to be good. We don't view this recent correction as the start of any sort of economic or market collapse underway, and it doesn't change our view on investing there.

尽管近期市场波动,但我们认为中国市场及经济的长期前景仍然利好。我们并不认为近期的调整意味着中国正出现任何形式的经济或市场崩溃,而我们对中国的投资观点并未因此改变。

I would like to highlight some reform efforts in China that we believe appear to be positive:

我认为中国的部分改革措施将会带来积极作用:

  • Ongoing efforts are being made to rebalance the economy away from exports and investment and toward domestic consumption, boosted by a continued rapid rise in wages.
  • Plans to address overcapacity and promote an open, fair and transparent market suggest a more robust attitude to long-term profitability of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). While SOE reform has been a bit slow, we expect continued progress.
  • We believe a more commercial approach among managements of SOEs could have a positive influence; we recently spoke with a manager from a major Chinese oil company who said they are implementing a system where pay is tied to performance. That's the type of thing we are looking for, and view as positive.
  • Monetary policy easing in China, the eurozone and Japan is supportive of the financial system and the sustainability of debt.
  • 随着工资持续快速增长,当局正不断努力将经济增长结构从投资带动型转变为国内消费带动型。
  • 制定计划解决产能过剩及促进开放、公平及透明的市场,显示当局对国有企业的长期盈利能力采取更稳健的态度。虽然国有企业改革一直较为缓慢,但我们认为这方面将持续取得进展。
  • 我们认为国有企业管理层采取更加商业化的管理方法将带来利好影响;近期一家中国主要石油公司的管理者在与我们交谈时表示该公司将实施与绩效挂钩的薪酬机制。这正是我们所期待的变革,我们认为这将产生积极作用。
  • 中国、欧元区及日本的货币宽松政策对金融体系及债务可持续性有利。

A lot of attention has been given to slowing gross domestic product (GDP) growth in China. It bears repeating—China's growth rate may be slowing, but one of the things that gets lost in translation is that while the percentage increases in the economy are indeed slowing down, but the actual dollar amounts are going up. When China's economy was growing at 10% in 2010, about US$844 billion was added to the economy, but with growth at 7.7% in 2013, US$986 billion was added.2 I would also emphasize that 7% growth is nothing to sneeze at, either, given the size of China's economy. It should not be a shock to see growth slow.

中国国内生产总值持续放缓已引起广泛关注。值得再提的是中国经济增长率或会持续放缓,但人们常常忽略的一点是,虽然中国经济的百分比增幅确实在放缓,但实际的美元金额仍在不断增长。当2010年中国经济增长率为10%时,经济增量约为8,440亿美元,但在2013年增长率为7.7%时,经济增量为9,860亿美元[2]。而且我要强调的是,以中国经济的庞大规模来看,7%的增长率也不容小觑。我们不应对经济放缓感到惊讶。

I recently visited a mega-shopping mall in China, “The New Century Global Center in Chengdu.” This 1.7 million square meter mall—more like a small town—contains offices, shops, more than 800 hotel rooms, a skating rink and a water park with an artificial beach and an artificial sun. During my visit, the mall was packed and hotel rooms full. This provided confirming evidence to me of the retail sales numbers we have seen in China recently, which remain fairly robust. More importantly given the high admission price (equivalent of about US$25) to the full-to-capacity indoor water park, and the brisk business I saw at the major department store in the mall, it was clear to me that spending capacity is good.

我最近造访了中国一座超大型购物中心,“成都新世纪环球中心”。这座占地170万平方米的购物中心就像一座小城镇,包含写字楼、商铺、800多间酒店客房、一座溜冰场及一座拥有人造沙滩及人造太阳的水上乐园。在我的访问期间,商场客流如织,酒店客房全部订满。这使我确信近期中国零售销售数据确实仍然非常稳健。更重要的是,门票价格较高(相当于约25美元)的水上乐园仍然全场爆满,再加上购物中心内大型百货商店的生意如此兴旺,我认为这明显反映民众消费能力的旺盛。

0815_ChinaGDP

Anticipating a US Rate Hike Ahead

预计美国加息在即

In our view, the downturn in emerging markets generally this year can also be attributed to fears about an interest rate increase in the United States, which will act to stem liquidity. While we don't know when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start to tighten policy, the markets seem to be factoring it in. The uncertainty of the timing and degree of increases is what the market doesn't like, so while there may be additional volatility when the Fed does raise rates, I would expect some relief as the uncertainty eases.

预期美国加息在即

我们认为今年新兴市场普遍下跌的另一个原因是市场担忧美国加息,因为加息将会抑制市场流动性。虽然我们不知道美联储将于何时开始收紧政策,但市场似乎已作出反应。加息时间及加息幅度的不确定性是市场所厌恶的,因此虽然美联储正式加息时可能会出现更大/波动,但由于不确定性已经减少,我们认为市场的忧虑将会有所缓解。

The two largest emerging market economies, China and India, seem to us to be better positioned to cope with rising US interest rates than some other emerging economies, as they have internal growth drivers that are not as dependent on the United States. I believe China and eventually India will be the main drivers of global growth rather than the United States or Europe. We seem to be in a transitional stage of that change right now. China represents the second-largest economy in the world, and even if we were to assume a 5% growth rate, it is still much more than either the United States or the eurozone has been able to achieve in many years.

在我们看来,全球最大的两个新兴市场经济体中国及印度能够比其他新兴经济体更好地应对美国加息的影响,因为两者都拥有内部增长动力,不需要太依赖于美国。我认为中国以及印度将取代美国或欧洲,成为全球经济增长的主要动力。我们目前似乎正处在这个转变过程的过渡阶段。中国是全球第二大经济体,即使我们假设其经济增长率只有5%,它也仍远高于美国或欧元区在许多年内所能够取得的增长率。

Looking at emerging Asia generally, we believe a combination of rapid economic growth, generally strong national finances and economic fundamentals have created an attractive landscape for equity investors. Expectations of high economic growth rates in emerging Asia (driven by China and India) remain a key attraction to us and we believe such growth rates will be comfortably in excess of developed market growth rates in 2015 and beyond.3 Moreover, many Asian markets, among them China, India, Indonesia and South Korea, have announced or embarked upon significant reform measures differing in details, but generally aimed at sweeping away bureaucratic barriers to economic growth, encouraging entrepreneurship and exposing inefficient industries to market discipline. Most are also looking to rebalance economic activity away from export- and investment-heavy models to become more oriented toward consumer demand.

从亚洲新兴市场整体来看,我们认为该地区综合了经济快速增长、国家财政及经济基本面普遍较强等优势,将为股市投资者带来具吸引力的投资环境。亚洲新兴市场经济高速增长的预期(受中国及印度所驱动)仍是吸引我们的关键所在,我们认为如此高的增长率将轻易地超过发达市场2015年及未来的增长率[3]。此外,许多亚洲市场(包括中国、印度、印尼及韩国)已公布或已启动重大改革措施,虽然具体细节各异,但普遍旨在扫除阻碍经济增长的障碍,鼓励企业家精神以及将效率不足的行业暴露在市场约束之下。大部分国家也在寻求摆脱出口及投资密集型增长模式,以加强消费需求的主导作用。

“Successful Investing Is Not an Easy Job”

“成功投资并非易事”

Last but not least, I would like to emphasize that we are fundamental, bottom-up stock pickers, and the country and sector composition of our portfolios are the by-product of our stock selection process. Of course, we aren't infallible, and our timing may not be in sync with the mainstream media view that is focused on short-term news and outcomes. What's been happening in the energy sector is a case in point. The swift fall in crude oil prices that began last year surprised many portfolio managers and analysts, and many investors have fled companies in the energy sector. In our view, energy price volatility will likely always be present, but long-term demand growth remains intact. Despite witnessing softer commodity prices in general in recent years, we continue to invest in the sector and are focused on low-cost producers that we believe can withstand periods of lower prices. We also believe that many of these companies are trading at attractive valuations, appear to have solid fundamentals and should be more resilient during downturns.

最后需要强调的是,我们是注重基本面及采取自下而上选股策略的投资者,我们投资组合的国家及板块组成是我们选股流程的副产品。当然,我们并非无懈可击,而且我们的步调可能会与看重短期消息及结果的主流媒体不一致。能源板块的情况就是这样一个例子。去年以来原油价格快速下跌令许多基金经理及分析师感到意外,而许多投资者已撤出对能源类企业的投资。我们认为,能源价格波动性将持续存在,但长期需求增长形势维持不变。尽管最近几年商品价格普遍下跌,但我们继续投资于该板块并专注于我们认为能够经受价格下跌考验的低成本生产商。此外,当中许多企业的估值具吸引力,并拥有稳定的基本面,能够在下跌期间保持更稳健的表现。

At times, it can be quite difficult to withstand periods of uncertainty. But as Sir John Templeton once said: “Successful investing is not an easy job. It requires an open mind, continuous study and critical judgment.”

有时候,投资者可能会很难经受住不确定性的考验。但正如约翰·邓普顿爵士(Sir John Templeton)所说:“成功投资并非易事。它需要我们具备开放思维、不断研究及作出关键的判断。”

Chetan Sehgal's comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

1. Source: FactSet, March 31, 2015. Bull and bear markets are based on 30% changes of the MSCI EM index from 1997–2008. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[1] 资料来源:FactSet,2015年3月31日。牛市与熊市是基于1997年至2008年期间摩根士丹利新兴市场指数变动30%而界定。过往表现并非未来业绩的保证。指数未经管理,不能直接投资于指数。请浏览www.franklintempletondatasources.com 以了解更多关于指数提供商的信息。

2. Source: China monthly economics indicators; EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit).

[2] 资料来源:中国每月经济指标;经济学人智库(EIU)。

3. There is no assurance that any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[3] 并不保证任何估计或预测能够实现。

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