越南 — 欧盟协议:东南亚整体得利
Vietnam-EU Agreement: A Good Deal for Southeast Asia
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2020-01-06 23:55
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After more than two years of negotiations, the European Union (EU) and Vietnam reached an agreement in principle for a new free trade deal.1 Our team believes this deal marks an important milestone not only for Vietnam, but sets an important precedent for other countries in Southeast Asia, a region of particular interest to us.

经过长达两年多的谈判,欧盟与越南就新自由贸易协定[1]的准则达成协议。我们的团队相信这项协定不仅对越南具有里程碑式的重大意义,更为我们所特别关注的东南亚地区其它国家开创了先河。

Vietnam_steel_plant_small

Vietnam has experienced a drop in exports this year—which some have said may have contributed to a devaluation of its currency, the dong, for the third time this year in August. With that backdrop, this trade deal with the EU could prove even more important for Vietnam.

越南今年经历了一次出口下滑 — 有人认为此次下滑可能导致了其货币越南盾今年8月第三次贬值。在这样的背景下,这项与欧盟的贸易协定对越南的意义就更显突出。

The new trade agreement means Vietnam's exports could see a boost amid broader access to the EU—whose member-countries collectively represent one of the largest economies in the world.2 Vietnam's key exports to the EU include telephones and parts, electronic products, footwear, textiles and clothing, coffee, rice, seafood and furniture, while the EU exports primarily high-tech products including electrical machinery and equipment, aircraft, vehicles and pharmaceutical products to Vietnam.3

新的贸易协定意味着获得更广阔的欧盟准入途径,越南的出口量有望大幅增长,而欧盟成员国共同代表着世界上最大的经济体之一。[2]越南对欧盟最主要的出口商品包括:电话和零部件、电子产品、鞋袜、纺织品与服装、咖啡、水稻、海产品和家具,而欧盟则主要向越南出口高科技产品,包括电力机械和设备、飞机、汽车和医药产品[3]

I think part of Vietnam's impetus for this deal is to lessen the country's dependence on China, its largest trading partner. There have been some tensions recently between the two countries over drilling rights in waters claimed by both countries as their exclusive territory. Additionally, the recent weakening of China's yuan (devalued in August) would make Vietnam's exports even less competitive and could further worsen its trade balance. We see Vietnam's subsequent currency devaluation as a necessary measure in light of the fact that the dong had been much stronger than some other currencies in the region.

我认为越南努力促成此协定的部分动机是为减少对其最大贸易伙伴 — 中国的依赖。两国近来在特定海域的钻探权问题上关系紧张,双方都声称这些海域为自己的专属领地。此外,人民币疲软(8月贬值)会削弱越南的出口竞争力,令其贸易收支进一步恶化。鉴于越南盾远比该地区其它一些货币坚挺,我们将越南随之而来的货币贬值视为是必要举措。

Other important aspects of the trade deal may be of interest to international investors. Besides eliminating tariffs, Vietnam will also remove almost all of its export duties. Vietnam is not only focused on traditional export drivers such as commodities; it has been opening up new market access opportunities in services and investments.

此贸易协定的其它重要方面可能引起国际投资者的兴趣。除了取消关税外,越南还将取消该国几乎所有的出口税。该国不仅大力刺激大宗商品等传统出口业,同时也在开放服务业和投资业的新市场准入机会。

In general, political progress—or the lack thereof—can be a key factor in unlocking economic potential in Asia. While Vietnam remains a Communist-ruled country, its leaders seem to be embracing capitalism, at least in some respects. Vietnam's recent removal of limits on foreign investment in many areas (which had been capped at 49% of a listed company) looks encouraging to us. Its government has also been focused on developing a strong technology sector in particular, offering financial incentives and tax breaks.

整体而言,政治进展 — 或缺乏进展— 可能是释放亚洲经济潜力的关键因素。尽管越南是一个共产党执政的国家,但其领导人似乎至少在某些方面更加青睐资本主义。该国最近在多个领域取消了外来投资限制(此前曾限制外资在上市公司的持股比例不得超过49%),令我们备受鼓舞。越南政府同时还着力推动科技业的强大,为此实行了财政激励和税务减免政策。

Cycling in Ho Chi Minh City

Vietnam is clearly attracting investor interest. While its market is still relatively small, it may come as a surprise that Vietnam was second only to China as the most-popular investment destination in the Asia-Pacific region, as of 2014.4 Bordering China, the country has strategic importance in the region, and offers a number of positives that have attracted this interest, including low-cost labor, strong domestic growth potential and a youthful demographic. Chinese firms are already active investors in Vietnam, taking advantage of significantly lower wage rates in comparison with Southern China.

越南无疑正吸引着大量投资者的兴趣。尽管其市场仍然相对较小,但有些出乎意料的是,截至2014年[4],越南是继中国之后亚太地区最受欢迎的投资地点。越南与中国相邻,对东南亚地区有着重要的战略意义,并拥有多个吸引投资者的利好因素,这些因素包括廉价劳动力、强劲的国内增长潜力和年轻的人口结构。中国公司早已成为越南的活跃投资者,利用其远低于华南地区工资水平的优势。

作为越南股票的投资者,我们面临的主要制约因素是流动性和投资选择的局限性,但我们相信这些不久将会有所改变。越南经济正快速增长,我们发现了很多不错的公司,其中部分为国有企业。更重要的是,我们在越南发现了一些估值具有吸引力的企业。目前国有企业占越南国内生产总值(GDP)的40%[5],但是当局已经承诺建立一个更加现代化的开放经济,对此我们期待私有化程度将会增加。

As investors in Vietnamese stocks, the primary constraints we face are liquidity and limited choices in which to invest. But we are hopeful that soon will change. Vietnam has had a fast-growing economy, and we have found good companies there, including some that are state-owned. More importantly, we have also found companies with attractive valuations in Vietnam. Currently, state-owned enterprises account for 40% of Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP),5 but authorities have affirmed a commitment to a more modern and open economy, which we hope will lead to more privatization.

作为越南股票的投资者,我们面临的主要制约因素是流动性和投资选择的局限性,但我们相信这些不久将会有所改变。越南经济正快速增长,我们发现了很多不错的公司,其中部分为国有企业。更重要的是,我们在越南发现了一些估值具有吸引力的企业。目前国有企业占越南国内生产总值(GDP)的40%[5],但是当局已经承诺建立一个更加现代化的开放经济,对此我们期待私有化程度将会增加。

Changes and Challenges

变化和挑战

The middle class has been growing in Vietnam and people have also been trading in bicycles for motorcycles, scooters and automobiles. To help alleviate the traffic on busy city streets, Vietnam's first-ever subway system has been under construction in Ho Chi Minh City with the help of foreign investment from Japan, France and China. Consumers have also been embracing new technologies the EU can sell to them; Vietnam ranks 10th globally in terms of the number of mobile phone subscriptions, ahead of Germany, Thailand and the United Kingdom, among others.6

越南的中产阶级正在发展壮大,人们购买摩托车、踏板车和汽车来替换自行车。为帮助缓解闹市街道的交通压力,在来自日本、法国和中国的外国投资的帮助下,越南正在胡志明市建设首个地铁系统。消费者们也欣然接受来自欧盟的新技术;在手机用户的数量上,越南在全球排名第十,超过德国、泰国和英国。[6]

While it is clear there has been progress, Vietnam's transformation has been slower than we'd like. In 2012, Vietnam unveiled a broad, “three pillar” economic reform program, proposing to restructure public investment, state-owned enterprises and the banking sector, but progress in many areas has been slow. Additionally, Vietnam's banking sector is undercapitalized, while non-performing loans weigh heavily on banks and businesses.

尽管有明显进步,但越南的转型比我们预期的缓慢。2012年,越南公开了一项范围广泛的“三大支柱”经济改革计划,提出对公共投资、国有企业和银行业进行重组,但是在众多领域的进展不快。另外,越南的银行业资本不足,同时不良贷款严重影响了银行和企业的发展。

Impact on Southeast Asia

对东南亚的影响

In my view, this new trade agreement between Vietnam and the EU is also quite significant for the ASEAN Group (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) because it seems likely to us that other countries in that grouping will also join in this trade liberalization movement, which could benefit the entire region. Singapore already has a free trade agreement with the EU and other ASEAN members including Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines would also likely benefit. So, this agreement is quite positive, and a good move by the Vietnamese.

我认为,越南和欧盟之间的新贸易协定对东盟集团(东南亚国家联盟)意义深远,因为其他成员国也可能加入这项贸易自由化运动,从而可能令整个地区受益。对早已与欧盟,以及泰国、马来西亚、柬埔寨、老挝、印度尼西亚、文莱和菲律宾等东盟成员国签订自由贸易协定的新加坡而言,也可能受益于此。因此,该协定的意义非常正面,是越南的一步好棋。

At a packaging plant in Vietnam

Vietnam offers many of the key characteristics that make Southeast Asia generally such an attractive destination to global investors like us. In addition to natural resources, the region contains pockets of advanced technology, notably in Singapore and parts of Thailand and Malaysia, as well as some world-class banking and telecommunications businesses. Per-capita income across much of the region is low, especially in countries such as Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, which have only recently begun to transition to market economic structures, providing opportunities for low-cost manufacturing businesses.

越南具备许多东南亚地区的关键特征,正是这些因素使得我们这样的国际投资者十分青睐该地区的投资。除了自然资源,该地区拥有众多先进技术,尤其是在新加坡,泰国和马来西亚的部分地区,同时还有一些顶级的银行和通讯公司。此外,大部分地区的人均收入较低,尤其是像老挝、柬埔寨和缅甸这样的国家,刚刚开始过渡至市场经济体系,为低成本的制造行业提供了众多机会。

Many Southeast Asian countries also have very favorable demographic profiles, with large working-age populations, while economic restructuring in a number of countries, most notably Indonesia, has the potential to raise productivity and corporate profitability. In addition, lying between China and India on one of the world's busiest trade routes, Southeast Asia is likely to benefit significantly should various other free trade initiatives come to fruition. Within Southeast Asia itself, the planned ASEAN Economic Community could create a market of 600 million people, combining the diverse resources of the region, which we believe should be to the benefit of all.

许多东南亚国家还拥有非常有利的人口条件,包括劳动年龄人口众多,同时多个国家进行经济体制改革有望带来生产效率和企业盈利的提高,其中最突出的是印度尼西亚。另外,东南亚位于世界上最繁忙的贸易线路上,接壤中国和印度,如果达成各类其他自由贸易举措,必将大幅受益。在东南亚自身,计划中的东盟经济共同体将创造一个6亿人的市场,并整合区内多样化的资源,我们相信届时整个地区都将受益良多。

Our research suggests the presence of many well-managed businesses in Southeast Asia whose valuations are below those implied by our assessment of their longer-term prospects. We are looking forward to finding more opportunities in this region—including Vietnam.

我们的研究表明东南亚很多管理良好的企业估值低于我们评估的长期前景隐含的价值。我们期待在该地区 — 包括越南发掘更多机会。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

________________________________________________________________

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1. Source: European Commission, “EU and Vietnam Reach Agreement on Free Trade Deal,” August 4, 2015.

[1] 资料来源:欧盟委员会,“欧盟与越南就自由贸易协定达成协议,”2015年8月4日。

2. Sources: IMF, World Bank, 2014.

[2] 资料来源:国际货币基金组织,世界银行,2014年。

3. Source: European Commission, “EU and Vietnam Reach Agreement on Free Trade Deal,” August 4, 2015.

[3]资料来源:欧盟委员会,“欧盟与越南就自由贸易协定达成协议,”2015年8月4日。

4. Source: Financial Times, “Vietnam's Inward Investment Surge: Will It Last?” April 24, 2014.

[4] 资料来源:《金融时报》,“越南外来投资激增:能否持续?”2014年4月24日。

5. Source: CIA World FactBook, as of August 2015.

[5]资料来源:CIA World FactBook ,截至2015年8月。

6. Source: CIA World Factbook, as of 2014.

[6]资料来源:CIA World FactBook,截至2014年。

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