南非的体育精神和经济概况
South Africa’s Sporting and Economic Scorecard
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2020-01-05 21:42
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Dubbed the “rainbow nation” after the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa had much to be hopeful about. In 2010, it achieved heightened recognition among investors when it became the fifth member of the “BRICS” grouping of emerging market economies, along with Brazil, Russia, India and China. While its economy and demographics differ from other BRIC countries, it has one thing in common with Brazil, Russia and China: It has hosted major global sporting events over the years. South Africa hosted the FIFA World Cup five years ago, and it hosted—and won—the Rugby World Cup 20 years ago. Similar to sports teams, promising economies sometimes fail to play to their full potential, and South Africa's economy has seen some struggles in the past few years. I've invited Johan Meyer, our senior vice president and managing director, South Africa, based in Cape Town, to share some of his insights on the challenges and opportunities facing South Africa today.

自一九八四年结束种族隔离后,南非被称为“彩虹之国”,而且到处充满希望。二零一零年,在成为由新兴经济体组成的“金砖五国”第五个成员国后,南非得到投资者的高度认可,金砖五国其他成员国还包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国。尽管南非的经济和人口结构与其他金砖四国有所不同,但其与巴西、俄罗斯和中国有一个共同点,即曾主办重要的全球体育赛事。南非在五年前主办过足球世界杯,在20年前承办过橄榄球世界杯并夺冠。与运动团队相似,具有光明前景的经济体有时也不能充分发挥潜力,南非的经济在过去几年中有所衰退。我邀请到常驻开普敦的南非高级副总裁和董事总经理Johan Meyer,与我们分享他对南非当前所面临的挑战和机遇的一些见解。

Sport is a national obsession in South Africa, and many observers have noted that the international sporting boy/cott of South Africa in the 1970s and 1980s played a pivotal role in bringing apartheid to an end. For many people in South Africa, the symbol that the hated apartheid era was finally over was when newly installed president Nelson Mandela, wearing a Springbok jersey, handed the Rugby World Cup to the captain of the country's winning team.

南非人民热衷于运动,很多研究者发现,二十世纪七十和八十年代禁止南非参加国际体育赛事对结束种族隔离中起到了关键作用。对很多南非人民而言,万恶的种族隔离年代最终结束的标志时刻,就是身着跳羚队(Springbok)球衣的新任总统纳尔逊·曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)将橄榄球世界杯奖杯交给南非国家队队长的时刻。

This year marks the 20th anniversary of that momentous event, and while South Africa's progress in this year's Rugby World Cup might be more precarious, overstating the importance of sport in the country remains difficult. South Africa has gone on to host a number of international sporting events including the Cricket World Cup, along with Kenya and Zimbabwe, in 2003, and the FIFA World Cup in 2010.

今年是这一重大事件的二十周年几年,尽管南非能否在今年的橄榄球世界杯突围可能比较不确定,但体育在南非的重要性怎么强调都不为过。南非已连续举办了大量国际体育赛事,包括二零零三年与肯尼亚和津巴布韦联合举办的板球世界杯,以及二零一零年的足球世界杯。

New and refurbished infrastructure in terms of stadiums, transportation and accommodations created numerous employment opportunities and developed expertise and invaluable experience in hosting these world-class events. These events showcased South Africa's ability to organise and host huge events on the world stage. In addition, it exposed the many wonderful aspects of the country to an international audience that would not otherwise have paid much attention to South Africa. The lasting legacy of these sorts of events in terms of the economy has been more on the side of tourism opportunities. Cape Town, for example, is a true world-class destination with many alluring features, including natural beauty, fine dining and even adventure sports.

在举办这些世界级赛事的过程中,新建和翻新体育馆、运输和居住设施创造大量就业机会,发展专业人才并获得宝贵经验。这些赛事展示了南非在世界舞台上组织和举办大型赛事的能力,同时向国际观众呈现南非多姿多彩的各个方面,因为观众们在其他时候并不会过多关注南非。这类赛事在经济上的持续影响更多地反映在旅游业方面。例如,开普敦的确是世界级的旅游目的地,拥有很多吸引人的地方,包括天然美景、精美的食物,甚至是探险运动。

Getting Growth Back on Track

经济增长重回正轨

South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected at 1.5% this year, steady with 1.5% in 2014.1 While this figure is positive, we think the country has the elements and the potential to grow its economy at an even higher rate. An electricity crisis is one factor that has stunted growth this year, as controlled power cuts and outages to relieve pressure on the grid have curbed productive activity, particularly in industry.

今年南非的国内生产总值(GDP)增长预计为1.5%,与二零一四年相同。[1] 尽管这一数值为正,但我们认为该国拥有强劲的基础和潜力,能够令经济以更高的速度增长。电力危机是阻碍本年度增长的其中一个因素,因为为了减轻输电网压力而切断或中断电源控制将会限制生产活动,尤其是工业。

South Africa and its neighbours (including Namibia—a fellow Rugby World Cup participant this year) are rich in natural resources such as gold, diamonds and even uranium. In South Africa specifically, the mining sector represented 8.3% of 2013 GDP in nominal terms, with primary mineral exports at 22.7% of total exports.2 The sector is clearly critical to the overall health of the country's economy. In recent years, however, the industry has been hamstrung by the lack of capacity in terms of electricity production and aging infrastructure at many of the mines, which has added to costs. In times of lower commodity prices, companies look to manage costs, so there tends to be a significant focus on efficiency. Also, some mining assets simply become unsustainable in lower-price environments, so unfortunately, there is pressure on the employment level.

南非及其邻国(包括今年的橄榄球世界杯的参赛国纳米比亚)拥有丰富的黄金、钻石甚至是铀等自然资源。尤其是在南非,矿业占二零一三年名义GDP的8.3%,其中主要矿物出口占出口总额的22.7% 。[2] 显然矿业对该国整体经济的稳定至关重要。然而,近年来由于电力生产不足和很多矿山的基础设备老化导致成本上升,工业已严重落后。在商品价格下跌期间,公司致力于管理成本,从而倾向于重点关注效益。此外,部分采矿资产在价格下跌的环境中完全无法继续运营,从而对就业造成压力。

Without a doubt, we see the stubbornly high unemployment level (at about 25%) as the most significant challenge South Africa currently faces and a major obstacle to improving the quality of life for a large portion of the population. At the same time, the tax receipt base is under pressure as a result of lower corporate profits, so the burden shifts more toward income and consumption tax to fund the government's various support programs like child and old-age grants.

毫无疑问,我们认为居高不下的失业率(约为25%)是南非当前所面临的最大的挑战,并且是提高大部分人口生活质量的主要障碍。与此同时,企业盈利下降导致企业所得税收入面临压力,因此,税收压力更多地转移到所得税和消费税上,以提供足够的资金支持儿童和养老补贴等多个政府支持计划。

Given the slowdown that we are seeing in the commodity space, many companies involved in this area are hard pressed to manage costs, resulting in further negative implications for employment. In my view, it is absolutely critical that the government, labour unions and employers work together to create a more flexible labour environment that is not as fixated on high entry-level wages, but rather, is focused on improving the overall level of employment.

由于商品行业增长放缓,该行业中很多公司被迫管理成本,从而对就业造成进一步的负面影响。我认为,政府、工会和雇主的首要任务是齐心协力,创造一个更灵活的就业环境,即不再过分执着于提高最低工资,而是专注于提高整体的就业水平。

In my opinion, South Africa's leaders need to take note of constructive criticism and be more willing to acknowledge and rectify mistakes. A key case in point would be the visa regulations that have been introduced recently. Visitors from important tourist markets like China now have to apply for visas in person to have biometric data captured, which makes the process time consuming and expensive, especially if the prospective visitors have to travel long distances to visa processing centers. In addition, families traveling with children need to have unabridged birth certificates in addition to passports for the children, a rule enacted this year to help prevent child trafficking on the continent but one that adds a further layer of complexity and bureaucracy for tourists. At a time when the weaker South African currency (the rand) should make South Africa a really attractive tourist destination for international visitors, the country is actually experiencing a decline in the number of visitors.

我认为,南非的领导人需注意有建设性的批评,并且愿意承认和改正错误。近期颁布的签证规定就是一个关键的例子。目前为了采集生物识别数据,来自中国等主要旅游市场的游客需要亲自申请签证,使得申请流程耗时又昂贵,如果潜在游客距离签证办理中心较远,所花费的时间和金钱更多。此外,携带儿童的家庭游客除了提供儿童的护照外,还需要提供完整的出生证明,这是今年颁布的规定,旨在协助预防非洲大陆的儿童拐卖,但对于游客来说,流程却变得更加复杂化,并且容易滋生官僚主义。南非的货币兰特贬值后,南非理应成为国际游客心中真正具有吸引力的旅游目的地,但实际上该国的游客人数在减少。

Weathering Market Volatility

应对市场波动

South Africa's stock market has been performing fairly well this year (up 5.6% year-to-date3) in light of recent global market volatility and despite weak internal fundamentals. Looking at the companies that have had good share price performances in recent months, we have seen one relatively common theme: offshore exposure of the underlying operations. As the South African rand has trended lower against the US dollar and other major currencies, the contribution from non-South African operations became more meaningful and therefore translated into a hedge against the currency movements to a certain extent. That, coupled with generally strong balance sheets and strong management teams, made South African investments more attractive to many investors, compared to the situation in Brazil for example, in which the markets have been extremely volatile.

尽管全球市场波动以及国内基本面不利,南非股市今年的表现相对较好,年初迄今涨幅达5.6%[3]。通过观察近几个月股票表现良好的公司,我们发现一个相对常见的主题:有关公司的境外业务。由于南非兰特兑美元和其他主要货币的汇率下跌,非南非公司的盈利变得更重要,因此在某种程度上可作为应对货币变动的对冲策略。相关盈利加上整体稳健的资产负债表和强大的管理团队,对很多投资者而言,南非的投资比巴西极度动荡的市场环境更具吸引力。

South Africa has been spared the recent global market volatility to a large extent, in spite of the substantial weakening of the rand relative to the US dollar and other major trading currencies. The recent decline in oil prices has proved to be a massive boon in terms of limiting the impact of inflation in South Africa. Consumer spending has been relatively resilient, especially among the higher income groups. Those people who are gainfully employed are typically getting wage increases in excess of the overall inflation rate, so this tends to translate into higher spending. We have seen a slowdown in the purchases of consumer durables such as new vehicles, as financing becomes more onerous on the back of higher interest rates. But we think some of this is likely to have a short-term positive effect on consumer non-durables. Looking at the corporates, we have found companies in South Africa tend to be conservatively managed and rarely have high debt levels, so we think the prospect of a further increase in interest rates is unlikely to have a major impact on the financials of local companies.

尽管兰特兑美元和其他主要贸易货币大幅贬值,但南非在很大程度上免受近期全球市场波动的冲击。经证实,近期油价下跌对南非而言是极大的利好,因为这对南非通胀的影响有限。消费支出相对有所回升,尤其是较高收入阶层。这些人群的薪资较高,通常其工资上涨速度高于整体通胀率,因此这往往转化为较高的支出。由于在利率较高的环境下融资成本较高,新车等耐用消费品的购买有所下降。但我们认为这在短期内有可能对非耐用消费品有积极的影响。在公司方面,我们已在南非发现管理稳健且负债水平极低的公司,因此我们认为,再次加息预期将不太可能对本土公司的财务造成重大影响。

The Impact of Oil Prices in Africa

油价对非洲的影响

Turning to other areas of the continent, African markets that import oil-related products—Kenya, for example—will likely have experienced lower inflationary pressures thanks to the drop in the international price of oil. At the same time, foreign exchange earnings in Kenya have come under pressure from lower tourism numbers, due to safety concerns and a decline in some main exports such as coffee. Overall, the fiscal situation in Kenya still looks relatively benign to us with the central bank taking a more measured approach to interest-rate hikes compared to the last cycle, when consumers and corporates alike were surprised by the rapid and severe hike in rates.

纵观非洲大陆的其他地区,由于国际油价下跌,进口石油相关产品的非洲市场(如肯尼亚)可能会面临通胀下降的压力。同时,因安全问题(导致游客减少)和咖啡等主要出口商品的减少,肯尼亚的外汇收入面临下跌压力。整体而言,我们认为肯尼亚的财政状况相对稳定,因为相对于上一轮令消费者和企业震惊的快速且大幅加息而言,央行这一次采取更稳健的加息方式。

For oil exporters in Africa such as Nigeria and Angola, it is a different story. Lower oil prices have seen foreign exchange earnings slashed, and governments will have to deal with ballooning budget deficits in the current price environment. Nigeria is specifically trying to defend its currency but is finding it increasingly difficult to do so. Investor confidence has also taken a hit due to President Buhari's long delay in announcing his cabinet. This situation has, however, created some interesting opportunities in consumer and banking names in Nigeria that are now trading at what we view as attractive valuations. Of course, there will likely be more short-term pain, but given favorable demographics and the potential to generate higher levels of overall wealth over the longer term, Nigeria remains an exciting market for us.

对于尼日利亚和安哥拉等非洲石油出口国而言,却又是另一番景象。油价下跌导致外汇收入减少,政府将需要解决当前价格环境下不断膨胀的预算赤字。特别地,尼日利亚试图防止其货币贬值,但发现难度越来越大。同时,投资者信心也受到打击,因为总统布哈里(Buhari)迟迟未公布其内阁成员名单。然而,这种现状带来一些不错的机会,这些机会存在于当前具吸引力估值的消费行业和银行业。毫无疑问,尼日利亚可能将面临更多的短期冲击,但鉴于其有利的人口结构和在长期内创造较高整体财富的潜力,我们认为尼日利亚依然是具有吸引力的市场。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: Statistics South Africa. There is no assurance that any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[1] 资料来源:南非统计局。不保证任何估计或预测会实现。

2. Source: Chamber of Mines of South Africa, Facts & Figures 2013/2014.

[2] 资料来源:南非矿业商会(Chamber of Mines of South Africa),二零一三年/二零一四年事实与数据(Facts & Figures 2013/2014)。

3. Source: FTSE JSE All-Shares Index; Bloomberg LP, Johannesburg Stock Exchange. As of October 7, 2015. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[3] 资料来源:FTSE JSE All-Shares Index;彭博资讯社,约翰内斯堡证券交易所。截至二零一五年十月七日。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。过往表现并不是未来业绩的保证。额外数据供应商的资料请参考www.franklintempletondatasources.com

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