印度:利率、通胀与制造业目标
India: Interest Rates, Inflation and Manufacturing Ambitions
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2020-01-05 21:50
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This year the global financial markets have been largely focused on China's growth story and the US Federal Reserve's possible monetary policy actions. Many investors may not realize that India—the world's third-largest single economy based on purchasing power parity—is expected to have a higher growth trajectory than both China and the United States this year and next.1

本年度全球金融市场一直主要关注中国经济增长情况,以及美联储潜在的货币政策措施。或许很多投资者尚未意识到,全球第三大单一经济体(以购买力平价衡量)印度本年度和未来一年的增长轨迹预计将高于中国和美国。[1]

With very high interest rates in India and the effort to bring them lower, inflation is a hot topic. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has always been reluctant to lower interest rates in the face of high inflation, but there is considerable confusion about inflation in India. Looking at India's wholesale price index (WPI), it would seem that the country is in a deflationary mode since the reading on that index was -4.54% as of September 2015.2 However, inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) was +4.41%, as of September 2015.3 This gap is a concern to anyone looking at the inflation numbers and trying to make sense of them—as well as what the market implications may be.

由于印度的利率水平非常高,且该国致力于降低利率,通胀成为市场热议的话题。印度储备银行一直不愿意在高通胀的环境下降低利率,但印度的通胀状况令人感到非常疑惑。从印度的批发物价指数(WPI)层面看,自截至二零一五年九月的WPI为-4.54%后,该国经济似乎处于通缩状态中。[2]但以居民消费价格指数(CPI)衡量,其截至二零一五年九月的通胀为+4.41%。[3]通胀数据之间的差距令所有人担忧,他们试图解释这些数据及其可能对市场造成的影响。

Members of the Indian government and some prominent businessmen have complained about high interest rates, but RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan had been reluctant to lower interest rates too quickly and too much, fearing inflation could flare up. The RBI acquiesced on September 29, lowering its key lending rate to 6.75%, the fourth rate cut this year. In its official statement, the RBI cited downside risks to growth and a drop in the headline CPI in August to its lowest level since November 2014. However, the RBI also noted that inflation is likely to go up going forward—at least for a few months—as some favorable effects seem likely to reverse. I think the RBI will remain very cautious going forward in terms of lowering interest rates further, but a lot will depend on domestic inflation, and whether economic growth accelerates or ebbs.

印度政府官员和部分有影响力的商业人士抱怨利率过高,但印度储备银行行长Raghuram Rajan一直不愿过快且大幅下调利率,唯恐通胀暴涨。印度储备银行于九月二十九日将其主要贷款利率下调至6.75%,这是本年度第四次降息。在其官方声明中,印度储备银行引述经济增长的下跌风险,以及八月份核心CPI下降至二零一四年十一月以来的最低水平。然而,印度储备银行也表示,由于部分有利影响有可能变成不利影响,通胀在将来(至少在未来几个月内)很可能会持续走高。我认为,印度储备银行在未来进一步降息方面依然会表现得非常谨慎,但降息很大程度上将视国内通胀以及经济增长速度(加快或放缓)而定。

1015_India_CPI_rev 1015_India_Inflation_Easing3.jpg 1015_India_Inflation_Easing3

There's no question that since 2013, both consumer and wholesale prices have come down substantially in India. However, there is a realization that the WPI is quite different in composition from the CPI. The WPI is focused on prices of tradable goods such as fuel and steel, which have fallen dramatically on international markets. The CPI is more focused on items such as food, beverages, housing, utilities and clothing, where international commodity price movements do not have as big an influence, at least in the short term. The debate continues, but the falling trend in both inflation indices augers well for Indian interest rates, and we think this should be supportive to India's equity market—assuming there are no unexpected external shocks.

毫无疑问,自二零一三年起,印度的消费者和批发物价指数均大幅下跌。但我们知道WPI与CPI的构成存在重大差异。WPI着重于燃料和钢铁等贸易商品的价格,而这些商品的价格在国际市场上大幅下跌。CPI则更着重于食品、饮料、住房、公用设施和服装等项目,而至少在短期内,国际商品价格变动不会对这些项目造成太大影响。市场还在讨论两个通胀指数,但两者的下跌趋势均有利于印度下调利率,而且我们认为这应该会对印度股市有所支持(前提是不存在意外的外部冲击)。

High Hopes for Change

市场对改革寄予厚望

When the new government was elected in the spring of 2014, it seemed everyone was excited about India's prospects, and India's stock market surged in the aftermath. While sharing the people's optimism, we knew it would be difficult for all Prime Minister Narendra Modi's talked-about reforms to actually get implemented. However, the measures we have seen so far have been good, and any steps that India can take in the right direction are welcome to us as investors. Certainly, we would have loved to have had all of Mr. Modi's promised reforms implemented immediately, but recognize it is a difficult task when opposition parties—which have stymied some of the legislation—have to be brought on board. Even if Mr. Modi achieves a smaller fraction of his promised reforms we would see that as success.

在二零一四年春季新政府当选后,似乎所有人都对印度的前景感到振奋,印度股票市场也因此暴涨。尽管我们与印度人民一样持乐观态度,但我们知道,总理莫迪谈及的所有改革实际实施起来会有难度。然而,到目前为止所实施的措施都是好的,印度在正确的方向上所能采取的每一步措施均受我们投资者青睐。毫无疑问,我们期望莫迪先生所承诺的所有改革均立即得以实施,但我们承认,要获得反对党派的支持是一项艰巨的任务,因为他们阻碍部分立法。即使莫迪先生所承诺的改革只有一小部分得以实现,我们都认为是成功的。

This year Mr. Modi has been busy traveling the world and meeting with various country leaders. In September, he visited the United States, meeting not only with US President Barack Obama but also technology titans in California's Silicon Valley to spur investment and encourage production and entrepreneurship in India as part of his “Make in India” campaign. Launched in 2014, this effort encourages multinational and domestic companies to manufacture in India, with the goal of transforming India into a major global manufacturing center. It targets 25 different sectors of the economy including automobiles and parts, aviation, chemicals, information technology and pharmaceuticals. India has had some recent successes in attracting foreign investment, but there is certainly room for more. Manufacturing represents only 16% of India's gross domestic product (GDP) and 1.8% of world output; in contrast, manufacturing in China represents 34% of its GDP and accounts for 13.7% of world manufacturing.4 To keep manufacturing humming along, infrastructure is vital. We think more progress is needed in this area, as well as reforms that would make India more attractive to foreign investors in general, including tax and labor reforms.

本年度莫迪先生忙于在世界各地穿梭,与多个国家领导人会面。其于九月份访问美国,不仅与美国总统奥巴马会面,还会见加州硅谷的科技巨头,以刺激其在印度的投资,鼓励国内生产和创业,这是其“印度制造”规划的一部分。该规划于二零一四年推出,鼓励国际和国内公司在印度开展制造活动,旨在将印度变成全球主要的制造中心。该规划以经济中25个不同的行业为目标,其中包括汽车与零部件、航空、化学、信息技术和制药行业。最近印度在吸引境外投资方面取得一些成功,但还可吸引更多外资。印度制造业仅占其国内生产总值(GDP)的16%,占全球产出的1.8%;相比之下,中国的制造业占其GDP的34%,占全球生产13.7%。[4] 基础设施是制造业繁荣的关键。我们认为,印度的制造业需要取得更大的发展,以及进行更多改革以在整体上吸引更多的境外投资者,改革包括税收和劳动力市场改革。

One positive for India in regard to its manufacturing ambitions is its youthful demographic; the median age in India is 27, compared with 36.8 in China and 37.8 in the United States.5 We have high hopes for India's future, so we remain quite interested in India and continue to seek out investment bargains there. Given current market conditions, we are looking to diversify our exposure to Indian equities through a mix of commodities-oriented, export-oriented and domestic companies. In particular, we are focused on companies that could benefit if India's currency continues to weaken, and if oil prices remain suppressed.

对印度的制造业目标而言,其中一个积极的因素就是其年轻的人口结构;印度的年龄中位数是27岁,相比之下中国和美国则分别为36.8岁和37.8岁。[5]我们对印度的未来抱有很大希望,因此,我们仍然重点关注印度,并将继续在该国寻找物美价廉的投资机会。根据当前市场环境,我们正通过配置商品导向型和出口导向型公司和国内公司股票,以使我们于印度的股票投资多样化。具体而言,我们关注可从印度货币持续贬值以及油价持续下跌中受益的公司。

Visiting a pharmaceuticals company in India.

For the last few months, emerging markets generally have underperformed developed markets, and India's market has likewise suffered some bouts of volatility. However, we think this will change in the near future because of two important reasons: first, many investors are underweight emerging markets as they have been rotating out of this asset class, and second, emerging economies in general have experienced stronger economic growth trends than developed markets over the past decade, a trend that we expect to continue. India's GDP is expected to grow 7.3% in 2015 and 7.5% in 2016,6 and while this year's forecast may be a little softer than prior forecasts, it is certainly quite robust.

近几个月以来,新兴市场整体表现不如发达市场,印度市场同样受到波动的冲击。然而,我们认为当前的情况在近期内会因两个重要的原因而发生变化:其一,很多投资者减持新兴市场股票,因为他们正在放弃这种资产类别以进行资产轮换;其二,在过去十年中新兴市场整体经济增长趋势高于发达市场,且我们预计这一趋势将会延续。二零一五年及二零一六年印度GDP增长预测分别为7.3%和7.5%[6],尽管本年度的增长预测可能略微低于先前的预测,但毫无疑问,该增长已非常强劲。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “新兴市场的投资冒险” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Sources: World Bank, 2014; IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2015. India GDP growth is projected at 7.3% in 2015 and 7.5% in 2016; China GDP growth is projected at 6.8% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016; US GDP growth is projected at 2.6% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. There is no assurance that any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[1] 资料来源:世界银行,二零一四年;国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》二零一五年十月。二零一五年印度GDP增长预测为7.3%,二零一六年为7.5%;二零一五年中国GDP增长预测为6.8%,二零一六年为6.3%;二零一五年美国GDP增长预测为2.6%,二零一六年为2.8%。不保证任何估计或预测会实现。

2. Source: Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

[2] 资料来源:印度商工部(Ministry of Commerce and Industry)。

3. Source: Government of India, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

[3] 资料来源:印度统计和计划执行部(Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation)。

4. Source: Government of India Planning Commission, “The Manufacturing Plan.”

[4] 资料来源:印度规划委员会,“制造业规划”。

5. Source: CIA World Factbook, 2015 estimate.

[5] 资料来源:美国中情局《世界概况》,二零一五年预测。

6. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2015. There is no assurance that any projection or forecast will be realized.

[6] 资料来源: 国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》二零一五年十月。不保证任何估计或预测会实现。

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