以下是2020年民主党总统初选的情况
Here's where things stand in the crowded Democratic primary for president heading into 2020
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2020-01-06 17:55
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While the election year is nearly upon us, there are still more than a dozen candidates vying for the Democratic Party's nomination to take on President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup next November.

尽管美国即将迎来大选之年,但仍有十多名候选人正角逐民主党总统候选人提名,他们将与唐纳德·特朗普在明年11月展开正面交锋。

The 15 Democratic candidates continuing their campaigns into 2020 are Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick, Tom Steyer, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson and Andrew Yang.

在2020年继续竞选的15名民主党候选人是迈克尔·班奈特、乔·拜登、迈克尔·布隆伯格、科里·布克、皮特·布蒂吉格、朱利安·卡斯特罗、约翰·德莱尼、图西·加巴德、艾米·克罗布查、德瓦尔·帕特里克、汤姆·斯蒂尔、伯尼·桑德斯、伊丽莎白·沃伦、玛丽安·威廉姆森和安德鲁·杨。

But nationally the race has largely shifted to a three-candidate competition among Biden, Sanders and Warren. This trio has been steadily topping nearly every national poll for months.

但在全国范围内,竞选基本上已经转向了拜登、桑德斯和沃伦三人之间的竞争。近几个月来,这三人几乎一直稳居全国民调之首。

In the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, Biden was in the lead, with 24 percent support from Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents. The former vice president was closely followed by Sanders, who had 22 percent support. The survey showed Warren finishing third, with 17 percent of Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independents backing her bid.

在最新的NPR/PBS新闻一小时/马里斯特的民调中,拜登以24%的民主党选民和倾向民主党的独立人士的支持率领先。桑德斯紧随这位前副总统之后,获得了22%的支持率。沃伦名列第三,17%的民主党选民和倾向于民主党的独立人士支持她的竞选。

But the early-voting states are a bit of a different story. With less than six weeks until the Iowa caucuses, the nation's first 2020 contests, Buttigieg has experienced a meteoric rise in the battleground state. A CNN/Des Moines Register poll from November showed the South Bend, Indiana mayor, topping the field, with 25 percent support in the state. He was followed by Warren, Biden and Sanders.

但那些提前投票的州则有些不同。距离爱荷华党团会议还有不到六周的时间,爱荷华党团会议是美国在2020年的第一次竞选,皮特·布蒂吉格在这个州经历了一次迅速崛起。CNN和《得梅因纪事报》(Des Moines Register)去年11月进行的民调显示,印第安纳州的南本德(South Bend)市长以25%的支持率位居榜首。紧随其后的是沃伦、拜登和桑德斯。

Plus, there are candidates who just recently entered the race who have the resources to make a big impact in 2020. Bloomberg, a former New York City mayor estimated to be worth $54 billion, joined the primary field at the end of November. Tom Steyer, another billionaire candidate, climbed enough in the polls to qualify for the December debate stage ahead of several career politicians.

此外,还有一些刚刚参加竞选的候选人,他们有能力在2020年产生重大影响。前纽约市市长布隆伯格的身家估计为540亿美元,他在11月底加入了初选阵营。另一位亿万富翁候选人汤姆·斯泰尔在民调中的支持率大幅攀升,超过了几位职业的政客,有资格参加12月的辩论。

Even though the Democratic field remains large, veteran political strategist Joe Trippi predicts that the list of candidates will start to break down "immediately after Iowa."

资深政治战略家乔·特里皮预测,尽管民主党的初选范围仍然很大,但“爱荷华州初选之后”,候选人名单将开始瓦解。

"We have had multi-candidate fields before. The problem is that we haven't had any in decades. People totally underestimate how important Iowa is in terms of changing the dynamic of the race," Trippi told Newsweek. "It's always been that way, and unless the laws of gravity have been totally scientifically disproven, that is what I think will happen."

“我们以前有过多个候选领域。问题是我们几十年都没见过了。人们完全低估了爱荷华州在改变竞选动态方面的重要性。“一直都是这样的,除非万有引力定律在科学上完全被证明是错误的,否则我认为这将会发生。”

But even the Democratic primary's top-tier candidates, such as Biden or Buttigieg, may have a hard time defeating Trump in the general election. The president is still polling exceptionally well among Republicans, and surveys from key states like Texas show him defeating every potential Democratic challenger.

但是,即使是民主党初选的顶级候选人,如拜登或布蒂吉格,可能也很难在大选中击败特朗普。总统在共和党人中的民意调查结果仍然非常好,来自德克萨斯州等关键州的调查显示,他击败了所有可能的民主党挑战者。

Allan Lichtman, an American historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, told Newsweek that the 2020 race is "too close to call."

美国历史学家艾伦·利希特曼正确预测了自1984年以来的每一次总统大选,他告诉《新闻周刊》,2020年的总统大选将“势均力敌”。

democratic primary heading into 2020

From left, Democratic presidential hopefuls Andrew Yang, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer during the sixth Democratic presidential debate on December 19. More than a dozen candidates are still vying for the party's nomination. Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images

民主党初选将持续到2020年

在12月19日举行的第六场民主党总统候选人辩论中,从左至右依次为杨安德鲁、皮特·布提格、伊丽莎白·沃伦、乔·拜登、伯尼·桑德斯、艾米·克罗布查和汤姆·斯泰尔。十多名候选人仍在争夺该党的提名。

弗雷德里克·J·布朗/法新社/盖蒂图片社

Lichtman is perhaps best known for developing the "13 keys to the White House"—a list of "true or false" criteria he uses to make his electoral predictions. The metrics include things like the economy, incumbency and scandal. When five or fewer metrics are false for the incumbent, Lichtman predicts a re-election win. But if six or more metrics are false for the White House occupier, the system predicts that the challenger will win.

利希特曼最为人所知的或许是他提出了“白宫的13把钥匙”——他用来预测选举结果的“真假”标准。这些指标包括经济、在任和丑闻。当现任总统只在5个或更少的指标上犯了错误,那么利希特曼预测他连任胜利。但是,如果对白宫占领者来说,如果在6个或更多的指标上犯了错误,那么该系统预测挑战者将会获胜。

"Only one of the keys pertains to the identity of the challenging party candidate, and that is whether that candidate is a once-in-a-generation, inspirational, charismatic candidate like a Ronald Reagan or a John F. Kennedy. So far, I don't see anyone in the Democratic field capable of turning that particular key against Donald Trump and the Republicans," Lichtman said.

只有一个关键因素与这个具有挑战性的政党候选人的身份有关,那就是这个候选人是否像罗纳德·里根或约翰·F·肯尼迪、那样,是一代人心中唯一的、鼓舞人心的、有魅力的候选人。到目前为止,我还没有看到民主党阵营中有谁有能力把这把钥匙用来对付唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)和共和党人。”利希特曼说。

The American University professor added that these metrics may change once the Democratic Party has officially nominated its candidate, but as of right now, "none of the nominees show real inspirational potential across the entire electorate."

这位美国大学的教授补充说,一旦民主党正式提名其候选人,这些指标可能会改变,但到目前为止,“没有一位候选人在全体选民中显示出真正鼓舞人心的潜力。”

"In the age of Trump, things can change overnight, so this is a very difficult year to make a definitive prediction," Lichtman said.

利希特曼说:“在特朗普时代,事情可能在一夜之间发生变化,所以今年很难做出明确的预测。”

Next up for the 15 Democratic candidates are the early-voting contests and several debates. The Iowa caucus will be held February 3, followed by the New Hampshire primary on February 11 and South Carolina's on February 29.

接下来是15名民主党候选人的初选和几场辩论。爱荷华州的党团会议将于2月3日举行,随后是2月11日的新罕布什尔州初选和2月29日的南卡罗来纳州初选。

There are also four Democratic debates scheduled in early 2020. The Democratic National Committee recently announced a debate in Iowa on January 14, one in New Hampshire on February 7, another in Nevada on February 19 and a fourth in South Carolina on February 25.

此外,民主党还计划在2020年初举行四场辩论。民主党全国委员会最近宣布,将于1月14日在爱荷华州、2月7日在新罕布什尔州、2月19日在内华达州、2月25日在南卡罗来纳州举行一场辩论。

The committee is once again raising the requirement thresholds for participation in the seventh Democratic debate, in Iowa, despite criticism from candidates.

该委员会再次提高了参加爱荷华州第七场民主党辩论的门槛,尽管候选人对此提出了批评。

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