一月晴雨表
January Barometer
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2020-01-04 00:03
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火星译客

Does January Predict the Rest of the Year? 

一月份的走向能预测一整年吗

The January Barometer is summed up in a single easy-to-remember phrase: "As January goes, so goes the rest of the year." This tidy maxim seems to have reasonable evidence to back up its record for prognostication, but trading it might require judgement and skill.

一月的晴雨表可以用一个简单易记的短语来概括:“一月过去了,一年的剩余时间也就过去了。”这个简洁的格言似乎有合理的证据来支持它的预测记录,但交易,可能更多的需要判断力和技巧。

This indicator was first printed in the publication "The Stock Trader's Almanac" and authored by Yale Hirsch, who first mentioned it in his 1972 edition of the book. The pie chart below shows the strong reason why such a phrase would be considered valuable information. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has had 91 occasions to test the January Barometer, and in 63 of those years, the market did close in the direction that January took over the remaining 11 months of the year. By comparison, all other months, on average, were significantly less likely to be as well correlated as January.

这一指标首次出现在由耶鲁·赫希(Yale Hirsch)撰写的1972年版《股票交易者年鉴》(the Stock Trader's Almanac)一书中。下面的饼状图显示了为什么这样一个短语会被认为是有价值的信息。自1928年以来,标准普尔500指数已经有91次机会测试1月份晴雨表,其中有63次,剩余11个月市场确实是按照1月份的方向收盘的。相比之下,其他所有月份的平均关联度都明显低于1月份。

The January Barometer Track Record 

一月晴雨表记录

The indicator's performance over the past 91 years may look better in the past than in recent years. The chart below averages all price moves for the S&P 500 (SPX) over the past 20 years into a single seasonality graph. By this measure, observers can see that, on average, January seems to do exactly the opposite of the rest of the year. What could explain the difference?

在过去91年中,该指标往年的表现可能比近年来更好。下面的图表将标准普尔500指数(SPX)过去20年所有价格波动平均为一个单一的季节性图表。按照这个衡量标准,观察人士可以看到,平均而言,1月份的表现似乎与一年里其它时间完全相反。如何解释这种差异呢?

The averaging in seasonality charts obscures the extreme moves that can occur through the year and often appear in January, especially around earnings season. Traders would likely fare better using a few rules to guide their attempt at buying stocks in January, while buy-and-hold investors should likely prepare for a bit of volatility in that month.

季节性图表的平均掩盖了全年可能出现的极端波动,这种波动经常出现在1月份,尤其是在财报季前后。交易员在1月份购买股票时,如果能使用一些规则来指导他们的操作,情况可能会好一些,而长期持股投资者应该为1月份的小幅波动做好准备。

Solving the Problems with this Indicator 

解决该指标存在的问题

The two main problems with the January Barometer are, first, that its track record shows the indicator only forecasts correctly just under 70% of the time, and second, that it assumes investors will hold on through the index's drawdown. Over the years, this has proven to be problematic. With at least a dozen occasions of more than a 30% drop in market prices over the past century, it becomes important for investors and traders alike to be forewarned and forearmed.

一月晴雨表的两个主要问题是,第一,它的历史记录显示,该指标只有不到70%的时间预测正确,第二,它假设投资者会在指数下跌时也坚持持有股票。多年来,这被证明是有问题的。在过去的一个世纪里,市场价格至少有十几次下跌幅度超过30%,因此,投资者和交易员都必须事先得到警告并做好准备。

The chart below shows that the January Barometer helps with this somewhat. As it turns out, the years where the Barometer does correctly forecast the market appear to exhibit a smaller average drawdown and median drawdown compared to years where January goes one way and the markets another for the rest of the year. This suggests that a stop-loss order placed just beyond the normal degree of fluctuation seen in years where the market is slightly better behaved might come in handy.

下面的图表显示,1月份的晴雨表在一定程度上有助于这一点。事实证明,晴雨表准确预测市场的年份,其平均下跌幅度和中位数下跌幅度似乎要小于1月市场走向与其余月份相反的年份。这表明,在市场表现略好于正常水平的年份,在正常波动幅度之外设置止损指令可能会派上用场。                     

In fact, as the graph below indicates, if you place a 10% stop-loss order below your entry, this will protect your capital better in non-matching years (years where the barometer doesn't predict the market) as compared to matching years. Such a rule would have been triggered about 30 times out of the past 91 years, giving investors a chance to protect against an average of 11% additionally adverse moves. 

事实上,如下图所示,如果你在入市时下了10%的止损指令,与匹配年相比,这将在非匹配年(晴雨表不能预测市场的年份)更好地保护你的资本。在过去的91年里,这样的规则被触发了大约30次,使投资者有机会防范平均11%的额外不利走势。

The Bottom Line 

底线

The January Barometer is right more often than not, but it leaves a lot to be desired as a trading or investing rule. Instead, consider it an indicator of overall market health. That way, you can maintain a bullish stance and use it to improve confidence in your trading during a year when January has closed higher for the month.

1月份的晴雨表往往是正确的,但作为一项交易或投资规则,它还有很多不足之处。相反,可以把它看作是整体市场健康状况的一个指标。这样,你就可以保持看涨的立场,并利用它来提高你在1月份收高的年份里的交易信心。

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