小星星也能大放异彩
Small Stars Can Shine Bright
1838字
2020-01-02 11:29
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When markets are volatile and uncertain, many equity investors often gravitate toward the larger companies they perceive to be the most stable—in the form of large-cap stocks. Within the emerging-markets universe, we see a number of small-cap stocks with shining potential that we think shouldn't be ignored.

当市场波动和不确定性时,很多股票投资者通常倾向于选择他们认为最稳定的大型企业,即大盘股。我们在新兴市场中发现很多不应忽略的拥有巨大潜力的小盘股。

Big Misconceptions about Small-Cap Stocks

关于小盘股的重大误区

We have found that as an asset class, emerging-market small cap is one of the most widely misunderstood and underutilized among investors. It is often perceived to be a place to avoid in times of uncertainty, but we see things differently. Many small companies are driven by local market dynamics and are therefore less dependent on global market trends. The small-cap emerging-market universe is anything but small—there are thousands of small-cap stocks available to invest in today, and the investment universe continues to expand due to the gradual liberalization of equity markets to foreign investors and the continued expansion of equity markets through initial public offerings, secondary offerings and privatizations.

我们发现,新兴市场小盘股是最常被投资者误解和未被充分利用的资产类别之一。在市场不确定的情况下,投资者通常避免投资新兴市场小盘股,但我们并不这么认为。很多小型企业由当地市场行情推动,从而较少依赖全球市场趋势。新兴市场小盘股股票的市值虽小但涵盖所有行业,如今该市场有成千上万的小盘股可供投资,且投资范围持续扩大,这是因为股票市场逐渐对海外投资者开放,以及股票市场通过首次公开发行、二次发行和私有化而不断扩大。

KEY DISTINCTIONS VS. LARGER COMPANIES

  • Smaller companies in emerging markets are generally privately owned and competitively operated, and are often larger players in smaller industries.
  • Small caps are particularly notable in the consumer area, in which we can access small but fast-growing and profitable consumer companies to reach burgeoning consumer markets.
  • Small caps generally have low foreign ownership levels and are often under-researched, overlooked and mispriced. The lack of coverage and transparency creates potential risks and opportunities.
  • Based on our analysis, many small-cap companies with attractive fundamentals and long-term growth prospects are trading at deep discounts due to the lack of sell-side coverage and liquidity.
  • As we seek out growth opportunities at bargain prices, we prefer companies with prudent financial policies and strong balance sheets that have generally abstained from taking significant financial leverage risk.

与大型企业的主要区别

  • 新兴市场的小型企业一般是私营企业,经营具有竞争力,通常是较小行业中的主要企业。
  • 消费行业中的小盘股尤其值得关注,我们可由此投资于规模小但快速增长且可盈利的消费类企业,从而进入快速发展的消费市场。
  • 小盘股通常外资持股比例较低,且研究不充分、被投资者忽略和被错误定价。缺乏报道和透明度创造潜在的风险和机会。
  • 据我们分析,很多小型企业拥有具吸引力的基本面和长期增长前景,但因缺乏卖方推荐和流动性而令其价格存在大幅折让。
  • 由于我们期望以低价得到增长机会,因此我们偏好拥有审慎财务政策和强健资产负债表的企业,这些企业通常不存在重大的财务杠杆风险。
1015_EM_SmallCap_Opportunities2

Why Consider Small Caps?

为何选择投资小盘股?

Among the many reasons to consider investing in small-cap stocks, smaller companies in emerging markets are generally privately owned, competitively operated, more local and are often larger players in smaller industries. Aside from relatively high organic growth compared with most larger companies, industry consolidation and acquisitions by larger companies as well as increased investor attention are additional potential sources of growth which can be independent of the broader macroeconomic environment. Many of the stocks in this space are under-researched or unloved, giving us the opportunity to uncover interesting opportunities others may have overlooked. We see that as the essence of what investing in emerging markets generally is about—discovering undervalued stocks in burgeoning markets that could rise to become tomorrow's stars.

投资于新兴市场小盘股的众多原因包括:小型企业通常是私营企业、其经营具有竞争力、比较本地化以及通常是较小行业中的主要企业。除了相对于多数大型企业而言较高的内部增长外,行业整合和大型企业的收购,以及越来越多的投资者关注是小型企业其他潜在的增长来源,其增长独立于整体宏观经济环境。很多小盘股缺乏研究或者无人问津,我们可从中发现其他投资者可能会忽略的好机会。我们认为,投资于新兴市场的精髓就是发掘出新兴市场中被低估的,能成为明日之星的股票。

The Asian small-cap space is of particular interest to us, and we have been using recent market volatility to search for opportunities. We believe reforms taking place in many emerging markets in the region could prove to be beneficial for smaller companies. Additionally, since domestic demand is typically the main revenue driver for small-cap companies, the combination of good economic growth, a growing middle class and lower oil prices—which can help check inflation and support a lower-interest rate environment—could be an added benefit to smaller companies in the region, freeing up consumer dollars to purchase their products. Within the small-cap space in emerging Asia, we currently favor consumer-oriented companies given the growth opportunities we see across many markets, as well as health care, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology companies.

我们对亚洲小盘股市场尤为感兴趣,并且一直利用近期的市场波动寻找机会。我们相信亚洲很多新兴市场中发生的改革将会令小型企业受益。此外,由于国内需求通常是小型企业的主要收入来源,因此,经济稳健增长、中产阶级壮大和油价下跌(有助于抑制通胀和支持较低的利率环境)可释放消费资金购买小型企业的产品,从而增加亚洲区小型企业的收益来源。在亚洲新兴市场小盘股中,我们目前看好消费导向型的企业(在很多市场中存在增长机会),以及医疗保健、制药和生物科技企业。

Of course, that doesn't mean these companies are all well managed or worthy of investment. Therefore, purchasing small-cap stocks through a passive (index-based) strategy may produce unintended consequences. Stocks with poor growth prospects, poor corporate governance or other such factors may be components of a small-cap benchmark index, but they might not be desirable to invest in over the long term. Additionally, regular index rebalancing can generate significant portfolio turnover for passive investors. We strive to generate alpha1 through our bottom-up stock selection process, looking for companies that we think can increase their market cap by a multiple over a five-year time horizon, and we strive for only modest yearly turnover.

当然,这并不意味着这些企业的管理完善或值得投资。因此,根据基于指数的被动策略购买小盘股可能会产生非预期后果。增长前景差、公司治理不完善或存在其他诸如此类的因素的股票可能是小盘股基准指数的成分股,但它们可能不适合作长期投资。此外,常规的指数调整会令被动投资者大量转换其投资组合。我们试图通过自下而上的选股流程创造超额收益(Alpha)[1],寻找可在五年内市值增长数倍的企业,并且我们只致力于投资拥有合理年度流动量的企业。

1015_EM_SmallCapGrowth

Risk and Small-Cap Investing

风险与小盘股投资

Risk is certainly an important part of a discussion about small-cap investing. I've never met a client who complains about upside risk. What worries clients is downside risk, and this is where we think we add value as active investors. Our team maintains an unrelenting focus on quality, seeking fundamentals that are on almost every measure superior to a benchmark index, including higher return on equity (ROE), profit margins and earnings-per share (EPS) growth, lower debt, better dividend yield, and most importantly for us at Templeton, cheaper valuations in terms of price-earnings ratios.

毫无疑问,风险是投资小盘股需关注的一个重要部分。我从来没遇到过抱怨上行风险的客户。客户所担忧的是下行风险,这是我们作为主动投资者可以带来附加值的地方。我们的团队始终注重质量,即寻找在几乎所有方面优于基准指数的基本面,包括较高的股本回报、利润率和每股收益增长、较低的债务水平、股息率较高,以及对邓普顿来说最为重要的相对市盈率而言较低的估值。

Contrary to many investor assumptions, the emerging-market small-cap benchmark index, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index, at times has been less volatile than the broader index, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, as well as the Russell 2000® Index, a US small-cap benchmark.2 To us, that makes sense because small-cap companies are less correlated with each other, and less integrated into global markets than large caps generally speaking.

与很多投资者所设想的不同,以MSCI新兴市场小盘股指数为代表的新兴市场小盘股基准指数有时候波动小于整体指数,包括MSCI新兴市场指数,和美国小盘股基准指数Russell2000®指数。[2]我们认为这是合理的,因为一般来说小型企业之间的相关性较低,且不如大型企业那般深度融入全球市场。

1015_EM_SmallCap_Vol2

There are also numerous inefficiencies in small-cap markets, offering potential for alpha. In the United States, small-cap stocks generally trade at a premium to large caps in terms of price-earnings, due to the higher growth they can provide. When you look at emerging markets, sometimes the opposite may be true. In India, for example, small caps are generally trading at a discount to large caps. Much of this investment money is what we'd call “lazy money,” or passive investment money, concentrated in large-cap index stocks that are not only more expensive but also subject to the volatility generated by rapid inflows and outflows of such foreign investments. Accordingly, we have found many undiscovered opportunities in Indian small caps.

此外,小盘股市场存在大量的无效性,可以提供潜在的超额收益。就市盈率而言,美国小盘股的价格相对于大盘股存在溢价,因为小盘股可提供较高的增长。在新兴市场中则恰恰相反。例如,印度小盘股的价格相对于大盘股通常存在折让。很多这一类型的投资资金我们称为“惰性资金”或被动投资资金,集中投资于大盘股指数股票,大盘股不仅价格较高,同时须承受这些境外投资资金快速进出所带来的波动。因此,我们在印度小盘股市场中找到很多未被发现的机会。

Small-cap stocks have the potential to offer what is becoming ever-more rare in a slowing global economy—growth—and not only in India. Many emerging markets offer this strong growth potential—with many small-cap stocks available to potentially take advantage of it.

在全球经济增长放缓的环境中,小盘股可能提供较为罕见的增长,而且这种增长不仅发生在印度。很多新兴市场拥有这种强劲的增长潜力,而很多小盘股则可利用这种潜在的增长。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面的分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问以获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright© [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 ( Franklin Templeton ) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “ 新兴市场的投资冒险 ” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

Russell® is a trademark/servicemark of the Frank Russell Company.

Russell®是Frank Russell公司的商标/服务商。

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1. Alpha is a risk-adjusted measure of the value that a portfolio manager adds to or subtracts from a fund's return.

[1] 超额收益是基金经理增加或减少基金回报的风险调整后的值。

2. Sources: MSCI, Russell 2000®, as of June 2015. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[2] 资料来源:MSCI,Russell2000®指数,截至二零一五年六月。其他数据供应商资料请浏览www.franklintempletondatasources.com。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。过往表现不能保证将来结果。

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