马来西亚的信心危机
Malaysia's Crisis of Confidence
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2020-01-01 22:27
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One might say Malaysia has been facing a crisis of confidence this year as its currency (the ringgit) weakened to levels not seen since the Asian financial crisis in the late '90s and its stock market declined amid a domestic political scandal as well as external shocks. We think Malaysia's currency and equity market both may have become oversold and could be presenting attractive bargains for long-term investors. But the key question is: Can Malaysia turn things around? Its recently unveiled budget may offer some clues.

有人可能认为,今年马来西亚正面临一场信心危机,因为其货币林吉特贬值至九十年代末亚洲金融危机以来的新低水平,而且其股市在一宗国内政治丑闻及外部冲击下下跌。我们认为马来西亚的货币和股票市场均可能出现超卖的现象,为长期投资者带来具吸引力的交易良机。但主要的问题是马来西亚能否扭转局势?其最近公布的预算也许能提供一些线索。

Prime Minister of Malaysia Dato' Sri Mohd Najib bin Tun Haji Abdul Razak—who is also the country's finance minister—recently unveiled the 2016 budget. Malaysia has been running a fiscal deficit, and the recent drop in crude oil prices hasn't done the oil-exporting country any favors. The budget hinted of financial conservativeness, but at the same time, aims to selectively support economic growth during the current challenging times.

马来西亚总理兼财政部长纳吉布·敦·拉扎克近期公布二零一六年预算。马来西亚一直存在财政赤字,而且最近原油价格下跌并未给这个石油出口国带来任何帮助。其预算表明该国采取保守的财政措施,但同时在当前的严峻时期内会选择性地支持经济增长。

The government anticipates slowing growth in 2016, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4%–5% year-over-year.1 Operating expenditures are being reined in, while the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST)—a value-added tax levied on most transactions in the production process—should help Malaysia shore up its finances in the face of low crude oil prices. Overall, the fiscal deficit is expected to be kept in check at 3.1% of GDP for 2016.2 I think this fiscal prudence will be important if Malaysia is to avoid a downgrade by debt rating agencies. Development expenditure is expected to expand slightly as outlined in the budget, and that bodes well for continued infrastructure spending, which would benefit the construction industry.

政府预计二零一六年经济增长将会放缓,其中国内生产总值将同比增长 4%至5%。[1]马来西亚在控制营运开支的同时实施商品及服务税(GST)(对在生产过程中大部分交易征收的一项增值税),这些措施在原油价格较低的环境下应对其财政有所支持。整体而言,二零一六年财政赤字预计将控制在国内生产总值的3.1%。[2]如果马来西亚要避免债务评级机构下调其评级,则非常有必要采取这种审慎财政政策。预算概要显示发展支出预计将轻微上升,这表明基建支出具持续性,将有利于建筑行业发展。

The government is also allocating further funding to the tourism sector, a logical move considering the attractiveness of the undervalued ringgit versus the US dollar. Measures were maintained to cool the property sector, which should continue to help keep prices in check and avoid a potential bubble that could spell catastrophe for the economy. No increases in taxes were announced on the brewery, tobacco and gaming sector, given that the GST was just introduced this year. On the whole, the budget looked to keep the deficit under control as Malaysia weathers the weakened economic environment.

政府也将划拨更多资金至旅游业,此举合乎逻辑,因为林吉特对美元贬值能吸引更多游客。政府持续实施措施为房地产行业降温,这些措施应有利于控制房地产价格,同时避免潜在的泡沫给经济带来灾难性破坏。鉴于今年已实施商品及服务税,因此并无公布增加啤酒、烟草和娱乐行业税收的计划。整体来看,预算似乎旨在控制财政赤字,以帮助马来西亚应对疲弱的经济环境。

Malaysia 2016 Budget: Five Priorities

马来西亚二零一六年预算:五项首要任务

  1. Strengthening Economic Resilience
  2. Increasing Productivity, Innovation, Green Technology
  3. Empowering Human Capital
  4. Advancing Bumiputera Agenda (“Bumiputera” refers to the ethnic Malay and indigenous peoples.)
  5. Easing Cost of Living of the Rakyat (“Rakyat” refers to the local population.)
  1. 增强经济抗逆性
  2. 提高生产力、增强创新及加快绿色科技发展
  3. 提升及释放人力资本
  4. 推进土著议程(“ 土著 ” 指马来族和本土民族
  5. 降低国民生活成本(国民指当地人口

Source: 2016 Budget, Ministry of Finance Malaysia.

资料来源:马来西亚财政部二零一六年预算

As a net exporter of commodities, Malaysia has been impacted by the low commodity price environment tied to weaker global growth. As the price of crude oil has collapsed since 2014, it has affected Malaysia's revenues; Malaysia has large industries involved in oil exploration and production. We would note that while some news headlines may have made the situation in Malaysia seem rather dire, its economy has continued to grow, sources of revenue have been more diversified in recent years than in the past, and its foreign reserves have remained relatively robust despite declining at various points this year.

作为商品净出口国,马来西亚受全球经济增长放缓造成的低商品价格环境影响。自二零一四年以来原油价格大幅下跌,马来西亚的收入因此受到影响,因为马来西亚拥有大量与石油勘探和生产相关的产业。值得注意的是,虽然今年一些新闻报道可能令马来西亚的情况看起来相当不乐观,但其经济持续增长,近年来收入来源比以往更具多元化,同时外汇储备虽有所下降但仍保持相对强劲。

While fiscal prudence and stronger commodity prices should help the country, one could argue that Malaysia will need to restore the confidence of its people in its government and of foreign investors in its markets to truly get back on track. According to various reports, the Malaysian government had reportedly directed a state-owned firm to invest more than US$4 billion in some of the country's depressed stocks, and allegedly, some other parts of independent state firms with overseas operations were directed to sell their investments and reinvest the proceeds in Malaysian equities. The country's main sovereign wealth fund also agreed to make such investments to rescue the stock exchange. Although this type of market intervention is not new nor is it unique to Malaysia, government intervention in the financial markets tends to heighten the uncertainty surrounding market behavior and can give foreign investors pause.

尽管审慎的财政和商品价格上升对该国有利,但有人可能认为,为了真正地重回正轨,马来西亚需要恢复其国民对政府及海外投资者对其市场的信心。多方报道称,马来西亚政府要求一家国有企业将40多亿美元投资于国内一些低迷的股票,而且其他一些拥有海外业务的国有企业则被要求出售其投资,并将收益再投资于马来西亚的股票。该国主要的主/权财富基金也同意作类似的投资来救市。尽管这类市场干预并不新颖而且非马来西亚独有,但政府干预金融市场可能会加剧市场行为的不确定性,同时令外国投资者变得踌躇。

Corruption has also been a problem in Malaysia amid a scandal involving 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB), which was established by Malaysia's prime minister to support long-term economic development in the country. Unfortunately, 1MDB has been subject to an investigation for misappropriation of some US$700 million of the funds. It has denied wrongdoing, and Najib Razak has said he is committed to full transparency in those dealings, but certainly, this type of news—which made international headlines—is quite detrimental. The silver lining in this case highlights the level of press freedom in the country, given that the attempts by the government to suspend certain newspapers and news websites were eventually revoked by Malaysia's High Court.

腐败也是马来西亚的一个问题,其中的一件贪污丑闻牵涉到1马发展有限公司(1MDB),该公司由马来西亚总理设立,旨在支持国家经济长期发展。遗憾的是,1马发展有限公司因挪用基金约7亿美元而接受调查。该公司否认此不当行为,纳吉布承诺其将完全公开案件中提到的交易,但毫无疑问,这类国际性焦点新闻所带来的不利影响非常大。鉴于政府试图叫停某些报社和新闻网站的提案最终被马来西亚高等法院驳回,此案件带来的一线曙光就是凸显该国媒体的自由程度。

As host of the annual summit of the Association of South East Nations (ASEAN) that concluded in November, we are hopeful more positive news will emerge from Malaysia in the months to come.

马来西亚作为东南亚国家联盟(东盟)年度峰会(十一月份结束)的主办方,我们希望其在未来几个月内能出现更多正面新闻。

Japan to the Rescue?

日本能否提供助力?

Continued quantitative easing in Japan, as well as Japanese foreign direct investment, should on the whole be beneficial for ASEAN countries, which include Malaysia. Japan is exporting not just capital but also technical expertise as it sets up factories in ASEAN countries to cater to the region's large and growing population. Thailand's automotive industry is a prime example, with a positive spillover effect driving the mushrooming of supporting industries. We believe this will be a continuing long-term trend as long as the return on invested capital for Japanese companies remains more favorable than reinvesting domestically.

日本持续的量化宽松政策及其国外直接投资将令整体东盟国家受益,其中包括马来西亚。日本不仅出口资本,也包括专业技术,例如日本在东盟国家建设工厂以迎合该地区基数庞大且不断增长的人口。泰国的汽车行业就是一个最好的例子,该行业带来的正面溢出效应推动配套产业高速发展。我们认为,只要日本企业的资本投资回报仍高于国内再投资,这将会是一种持续的长期趋势。

Another positive factor we see for Malaysia and other ASEAN economies is a general orientation toward consumers, aided by a youthful demographic and a burgeoning middle class that has growing income to spend on discretionary goods. As investors in Malaysian equities, we are selective, and we favor consumer stocks because that is where we see growth in the long term in line with these trends. We have also been favoring smaller companies that we think have potential for growth, but that have been generally overlooked by other investors.

对马来西亚和其他东盟经济体而言,另一个利好因素是整体消费趋势,因为该地区拥有年轻的人口结构,而中产阶级不断壮大,其日益上升的收入将用来购买耐用商品。作为马来西亚股票投资者,我们有选择地筛选股票并看好消费类股票,因为我们认为其长期增长与上述趋势趋同。我们也同样看好具增长潜力但通常被其他投资者忽略的小型公司。

Despite favorable long-term dynamics, short-term flows are a different matter. Speculation that the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in December should continue to dominate global investor sentiment and add to the market uncertainty and volatility we have seen in the second half of this year. Domestic issues and general uncertainty over the timing of a US interest-rate hike may be challenging in the short term for Malaysia, but we focus on long-term trends that we feel will prevail.

尽管市场的长期趋势良好,但短期发展则另当别论。市场对美联储可能在十二月份加息的推测将继续主导全球投资者情绪,同时加剧市场下半年一直以来的不确定性及波动性。短期来看,国内问题和美国加息时间不确定将为马来西亚带来挑战,但我们所关注的是长期趋势,因为我们认为长期趋势更具潜力。

In the longer term, one of the positive aspects that can result from scandals or upheavals like the ones Malaysia has seen is that they often force change because the use of social media and the Internet makes them more transparent to the world. As a growing nation, Malaysia still has room for improvements and its people are realizing reform is needed, and that is good news, in our view. We will be eagerly watching its progress.

更长远角度来看,马来西亚发生的丑闻或混乱也带来积极的一面,即社交媒体和互联网的应用令这些事件公诸于众,从而迫使其政府作出相应的变革。作为正在成长的国家,马来西亚仍有进步空间,而且其国民已意识到改革的必要性,这是一个好消息。我们将密切关注该国的发展。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “ 新兴市场的投资冒险 ” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: 2016 Budget, Ministry of Finance Malaysia. There is no assurance that any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[1] 资料来源:马来西亚财政部二零一六年预算。不保证任何估计或预测会实现。

2. Source: Ibid.

[2] 同上

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