深圳:一座正在蓬勃发展的城市
Shenzhen: A City on the Move
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2020-01-01 22:13
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这篇文章还有中文 (简体) 、荷兰文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

Many investors are worried about growth in China right now, with markets being extremely volatile in the first few weeks of the year. My team and I recently toured several cities in China and have found many thriving industries and companies with vibrant prospects, which reinforced my views on the case for investing there. Here, I share my report on Shenzhen.

很多投资者担忧中国的经济增长,其市场在今年头几周出现极端波动。我和我的团队近期到访了中国的几座城市,发现一些发展前景良好而且生机勃勃的行业和企业,这增强了我对投资中国的信心。我将在文中分享在深圳的见闻。

China's Shenzhen is a city on the move. It is a place where young Chinese movers and shakers want to be not only because of the many booming technology companies located there (including those involved with the Internet, drones, robotics, etc.) but also because its environment is seen as more favorable than many other major Chinese cities. Although Shenzhen is not the capital of the province in which it is situated (Guangdong), it overshadows the capital city of Guangzhou in a number of aspects. In 1980, Shenzhen was given the status of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ), the first of five such zones. When the reformer Deng Xiaoping made a visit in 1992 he said: “You [the Shenzhen local government] should be bolder in carrying out reform and opening up to the outside and have the courage to experiment.” Giving the zone the stamp of approval from Beijing helped accelerate reform, and things really began to happen there. Shenzhen became an experiment in market capitalism controlled with ideals, or “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” That set off a frenzy of local and foreign investment, making Shenzhen a global manufacturing hub and one of the fastest-growing cities not only in China but in the world during the 1990s and 2000s. Total economic output of Shenzhen is now larger than some entire countries, including Ireland, Portugal and Vietnam.1

深圳是中国一座正在蓬勃发展的城市。这是中国有影响力的年轻一代想要聚集的地方,不仅是因为深圳拥有很多生机勃勃的科技公司,包括涉及互联网、无人机、机器人等公司,也因为深圳的环境比很多中国的其他主要城市更具吸引力。尽管深圳并非其所在省份(广东省)的省会城市,但多个方面却胜过省会广州。一九八零年,深圳被划为第一个经济特区,紧随其后中国又陆续出现四个经济特区。一九九二年改革者邓小平在视察深圳时说道,“你们(深圳当地政府)应该更大胆地实行改革和对外开放,并且要勇于尝试”。在获得政府的批准后,特区改革进程加快,深圳真正开始发生变化。深圳成为实行具有中国特色市场资本主义或“中国特色社会主义”的实验地。这吸引了大量的地方和外商投资,使深圳在二十世纪九十年代和二十一世纪前十年成为中国乃至全球的制造中心,以及发展最快的城市之一。目前深圳的经济总量高于一些国家的总量,包括爱尔兰、葡萄牙和越南。1

China_Shenzhen_nature_IMG_4910_small

Good salaries in Shenzhen have attracted migrants from all over China, creating a large population of non-local migrant workers. Shenzhen also has a young population, with an average age of less than 30 years old.2 With more people and investments flowing into Shenzhen, property prices have been on the rise; various reports indicate that prices in Shenzhen rose faster than any other city in China in 2015. In addition to foreign firms establishing factories in Shenzhen, China's largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment established its international headquarters in the city, along with many other types of domestic companies that have decided to situate themselves in the zone. Shenzhen is known as one of China's “Silicon Valleys” due to its high concentration of high-tech companies, of keen interest to Chinese graduates of technical universities and young people who want to be involved in Internet businesses.

深圳良好的薪资待遇吸引了来自全国各地的流动人口,带来大规模的非当地外来务工人员。深圳的人口结构也趋于年轻化,平均年龄不足30岁。[2] 随着更多的人口和投资者涌入深圳,其房地产价格不断上升;各种报道显示二零一五年深圳的房价增长速度高于中国任何城市。除了外商企业在深圳设立工厂外,中国最大的电信设备制造商在此设立国际总部,同时国内很多其他类型的企业也决定落户该地区。由于高科技公司高度汇集于此,深圳被誉为中国的“硅谷”之一,吸引了中国科技类大学的毕业生,以及想要从事互联网行业的年轻人。

Shenzhen and Hong Kong are separated politically, but border restrictions have been continually loosening and highways and trains offer connections between them. There are now six land crossing points between the two cities and a rail connection linking the Shenzhen metro line and Hong Kong's Mass Transit Railway subway system. Each day, it is estimated that more than a quarter of a million people travel between Hong Kong and Shenzhen. The Shenzhen Metro system, opened in 2004, now has five lines, 118 stations and 177 kilometers (110 miles) of tracks. Eventually a high-speed train service is expected to connect Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

深圳和香港在政治上独立,但边境限制正在不断放宽,而且公路和火车已将两座城市联接起来。目前这两座城市间有六个陆上过境点,以及一条连接深圳地铁与香港地铁系统的铁路。每天,预计约有超过25万人次来往于香港和深圳之间。深圳地铁系统在二零零四年开通,目前共有5条线路,118个车站,线路总长177公里(110英里)。预计最终高铁将会连接北京、广州、深圳和香港。

At the Shenzhen train station, headed to Nanning.

Supplementing Hong Kong's bustling airport, Shenzhen's international airport is the headquarters of Shenzhen Airlines as well as the hub for other passenger and cargo lines. With rail and road links to Hong Kong now being extended to Macau and Zhuhai, across from Macau a new megacity is being created in the Pearl River Delta, which boasts a population of 42 million people, making it the world's largest urban area.3 Flying into Chek Lap Kok Airport in Hong Kong, I could see concrete piles reaching out into the ocean as a series of bridges and tunnels to Macau is being built. I think it will be a wonderful option to skip the boats we now use to reach Macau and drive all the way across and under the ocean to Macau, Zhuhai, Shenzhen and other parts of China.

作为香港繁忙机场的补充,深圳国际机场是深圳航空的总部,以及其他客运和货运线路的枢纽。连接香港的铁路和公路目前正延伸至澳门和珠海,澳门对面的珠江三角洲正在形成一座新的特大城市,该城市拥有4,200万人口,将成为全球最大的城市群。[3]飞在香港赤鱲角机场上空,因为正在建设一系列通往澳门的桥梁和隧道,深入海底的混凝土桩清晰可见。这将是除目前使用的轮船外,去往澳门的另一个不错的选择,水上水下一切路线都能通往澳门、珠海、深圳和中国的其他地区。

In addition to manufacturing, Shenzhen is quickly becoming a financial center with two of China's largest banks headquartered there. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE), like the Shanghai Stock Exchange, is a national exchange with more than 1,700 listed companies on SZSE, including those listed on Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) Board.4 The SZSE Composite Index consists of 500 listed stocks with market capitalization of more than US$300 billion.5 The Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect, which would facilitate cross-border trading, is expected to launch sometime this year and could open up more opportunities for investors. The government is currently promoting Shenzhen as a financial center to equal Hong Kong by designating Qianhai, a district of Shenzhen, as a financial center with special rights and privileges. The purpose is to position the zone for innovation and development of modern services, in addition to fostering closer cooperation between Hong Kong and mainland China. Most significantly, Qianhai is being given special freedoms in regards to the internationalization of China's currency, the renminbi (RMB), by loosening capital account restrictions so Hong Kong banks will be allowed to extend commercial RMB loans to Qianhai-based onshore mainland entities.

除了制造业外,深圳正迅速发展成为金融中心,其中中国两间最大的银行总部坐落于此。深圳证券交易所(深交所)与上海证券交易所相似,是一所全国性的交易所,拥有超过1,700家上市公司,包括在创业板上市的公司。[4] 深证综合指数涵盖500只上市股票,市值超过3,000亿美元。[5] 深港通预期今年开通,将促进跨境交易并为投资者提供更多的投资机会。目前政府定位前海(深圳的一个区)为拥有特殊权利和权限的金融中心,旨在将深圳发展成为与香港一样的金融中心。除了进一步促进香港与内地的密切合作外,该举措还旨在将该地区打造为现代服务创新与发展的经济区。更为重要的是,前海拥有人民币国际化的特殊自由,将通过放宽资本账户限制扩大香港银行对前海在岸内地企业的人民币商业贷款。

Urban Transformation

城市转型

Driving through Shenzhen, I could see how it has transformed since the first time I visited about 20 years ago. Where there were once rice fields, office and apartment buildings have sprung up—some of which are now among the tallest in China. Currently under construction is the 600-meter Ping An Finance Centre, which would be the second-tallest building in China and the fourth-tallest building in the world upon its scheduled completion in 2016.6

开车穿行于深圳,我发现深圳与我大约20年前第一次游历时看到的景象相比已经发生巨大的变化。曾经是稻田的地方如春笋般涌现出很多写字楼和公寓,其中有一些目前位列中国最高的大楼。目前在建的600米高的平安金融中心预计将在二零一六年竣工,建成后其将成为中国第二高以及全球第四高的大楼。[6]

As urbanization continues in China and more and more people move into high-rise apartments, not only is transportation infrastructure needed but also cultural and entertainment facilities, which the government has encouraged. One company we visited was typical of a trend combining housing projects with entertainment and tourism projects, including theme parks, hotels, cinemas, etc. The firm has real estate and tourism businesses in Shenzhen and also in other parts of the country. We toured a theme park in Shenzhen via golf cart, and also stayed at a hotel located above a huge shopping mall. The mall was rather empty of operating shops, but was gradually adding tenants. The hotel and mall were adjacent to a beautiful park with a modern concert hall and a wide variety of restaurants serving Western and Chinese food. At a table overlooking a stream, we had dinner at a very good Italian restaurant.

随着中国不断推进城市化发展以及越来越多的人入住高楼大厦,政府不仅鼓励完善必要的交通基建,还鼓励建设文化与娱乐设施。我们参观了一家涵盖住宿与娱乐和旅游的公司,包括主题公园、酒店、影院等。这家公司在深圳和中国其他地方均拥有房地产和旅游业务。我们乘坐高尔夫球车游览深圳的一个主题公园,并入住位于一个大型购物商场的一家酒店。尽管商场中正在经营的店面相对较少,但租户在逐渐增多。酒店和商场邻近一座秀丽的公园,里面拥有一间现代音乐厅以及各种中西餐厅。我们在一家能够俯瞰溪流的意大利餐厅享受美味的晚餐。

Shenzhen, China

Our theme-park tour in Shenzhen included a venue designed to review Chinese history, culture and architecture with the various ethnic groups in China through the country's 5,000-year civilization. As we walked around the park, we enjoyed the beautiful scenery and models of various stages of Chinese history, miniature versions of famous Chinese tourist spots, and models of famous historical buildings and scenes. One fascinating model was of the Great Wall and a famous historical battle that took place at the wall. They had a number of performances in various parts of the park featuring dancing, music, stunt shows, magic, a light show and skilled riders on horseback. There were also a number of restaurants featuring different types of food from parts of China including Sichuan, Yunnan, Hunan and other areas. I was surprised to find an impressive display section of the park that included a Thai pagoda and elephants with a fountain display that allowed hot tourists to cool off with a spray enveloping the entire area. There was also a separate safari park in Shenzhen, with a breeding operation for white lions.

我们的深圳主题公园之旅包括一个可以回顾中国5000年文明长河中形成的各个民族的历史、文化和建筑的场所。在公园内,我们欣赏到中国不同历史阶段的美丽景色和模型、微缩版的中国著名旅游景点以及著名历史建筑和场景模型。其中一个令人神往的模型是长城以及在长城爆发的一次著名战役。公园的不同地方均有各具特色的表演,如舞蹈、音乐、特技、魔术、灯火秀和熟练的马术表演。同时有很多来自中国不同地方的特色菜馆,包括四川、云南、湖南和其他地区。令人惊讶的是,我发现公园内栩栩如生的展览当中竟包括一座泰国宝塔,并设立泰国大象喷泉,喷泉的水雾洒满整个区域,可以让游客在炎热的天气里享受到清凉。深圳也有一座独立的野生动物园,专门繁育白狮。

New Technologies, Traditional Medicine

新科技、传统医药

Our trip to Shenzhen also included a visit with executives of a company that specializes in high-powered laser equipment. We saw automated machines designed to do high-volume production work as well as a wide variety of products made or decorated with lasers such as glass engraved with laser designs, cellphone cases engraved with lasers, and steel cut with lasers used in shipbuilding and automobile manufacturing. Most of the machines they make are customized for a specific purpose and customer. We learned that worldwide, the majority of the laser market overall is for low-powered lasers used in consumer electronics.

我们的深圳之旅还参观了一家专营高能激光设备的公司。我们看到可以进行大批量生产的自动化机器,以及各种用激光制作或装饰的产品,如激光设备雕刻的玻璃、激光刻制的手机壳以及用于造船和汽车制造的激光切割钢材。大多数机器都是为特定用途和客户定制的。我们了解到,全球整个激光市场大部分为用于消费性电子产品的低能激光。

Examining modern and traditional Chinese medicines

The next day we visited a traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) producer in China. The firm's products are sold through retail pharmacies and hospitals, with the pharmacy channel being the larger revenue contributor. Visiting a few pharmaceutical stores in various Chinese cities, I quickly realized the pervasiveness of the traditional medicines not only in packaged form with herbs made into pills, capsules and/or syrups, but by the sales of raw and loose herbs. Sales to retail shops are done through distributors, while sales to hospitals are done by the company's own sales staff. When talking about their method of valuing the large stock of precious herbs they stored in warehouses, we learned that those inventories were valued at cost even though they were worth considerably more. Sourcing the wide variety of roots, dried flowers and leaves takes their buyers all over China. In addition, they have their own farms to grow a variety of the more common herbs. The company sees the potential for broader application of TCM in Western societies.

次日,我们参观了中国一家生产传统中药的公司。该公司的产品通过零售药房和医院出售,而药房销售是主要收入来源。参观中国不同城市的几个药店后,我很快意识到传统医药的广泛性不仅在于将草药制成药片、胶囊及/或糖浆剂,同时也出售生草药和干草药。他们通过分销商向零售店出售产品,而医院方面则通过公司自身的销售人员进行销售。当谈及为仓库里储存的大量珍贵草药估价的方法时,我们了解到那些存货均以成本计价,即使存货的价值比成本价高得多。为搜寻各种药根、干花和药叶,这些买家走遍全国。此外,他们也有自己的种植园,种植各种比较常见的草药。这家公司已经发现了传统中药在西方国家更广泛应用的潜力。

My team and I thoroughly enjoyed our visit to Shenzhen and see it as a burgeoning city that blends old and new in its culture, attractions, and potential investment opportunities.

我和我的团队非常享受我们在深圳的旅程,并认为深圳是一座生机勃勃的城市,其文化、旅游景点和潜在的投资机会里融合了新旧元素。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: Shenzhen Municipal E-government Resources Center; World Bank, based on 2014 data.

[1] 资料来源:深圳市电子政务资源中心;世界银行,基于二零一四年数据。

2. Source: Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Shenzhen, 2011 data.

[2] 资料来源:国家统计局深圳调查队,二零一一年数据。

3. Source: World Bank, “East Asia's Changing Urban Landscape: Measuring a Decade of Spatial Growth,” January 2015; Population figure base on 2010 data.

[3] 资料来源:世界银行,“东亚变化中的城市景观:见证十年区域增长”,二零一五年一月;人口数据基于二零一零年数据。

4. Source: Shenzhen Stock Exchange, as of January 2016.

[4] 资料来源:深圳证券交易所,截至二零一六年一月。

5. Ibid.

[5] 同上。

6. Source:“Ping An Finance Center Structurally Topped Out in Shenzhen,” Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat press release, May 4, 2015.

[6] 资料来源:二零一五年五月四日高层建筑与城市住宅居民委员会新闻发布,“深圳平安金融中心结构封顶”。

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