哥伦比亚的旅游业逆转
Colombia's Tourism Turnaround
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2020-01-01 22:44
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, Spanish

这篇文章也有中文 (简体) 、法文、西班牙文版

In the past, Colombia had a somewhat dubious reputation among travelers that, unfortunately, kept many from experiencing its numerous charms. Colombia's government and its people have risen to meet many challenges over the past decade, working to improve the country's attractiveness to international tourists as well as investors. After a recent visit to Colombia, I found the country to be an appealing travel destination with an incredible variety of attractions, festivals and natural beauty including snow-white beaches, mountains, tropical jungles, waterfalls and even volcanoes. My colleagues and I also recently explored the many potential investment opportunities in the country and were generally encouraged by what we saw and heard during our visit.

在过去,哥伦比亚在游客心目中的名声并不太好,因此很遗憾地,很多人都没有领略过她的巨大魅力。过去十年来哥伦比亚政府和人民一直在应对种种挑战,并努力提升该国对国际游客和投资者的吸引力。近期游历哥伦比亚后,我发现该国是一个令人神往的旅游胜地,其拥有各种名胜古迹、节日和自然美景,包括雪白的海滩、山峦、热带丛林、瀑布甚至是火山群。我和我的同事最近也在该国挖掘了很多潜在的投资机会,旅途中的所见所闻均令我们备受鼓舞。

In Cartagena, Colombia

Our first stop in Colombia was Cartagena, which has an interesting historical background. The city is an important center for oil refining and a major port; as our plane was landing, we could see large shipyards with modern cranes unloading a German container ship. We felt, however, there was probably better investment potential for Cartagena tied to tourism, and wanted to find out more about that aspect.

我们在哥伦比亚的第一站是拥有有趣历史背景的卡塔赫纳。这个城市是一个重要的炼油中心,还是一个重要的港口,飞机一降落,我们就看到大型的造船厂,当时新型起重机正在卸载一艘德国的集装箱运货船。然而,我们认为卡塔赫纳在发展旅游业方面可能更具投资潜力,我们也希望在这方面有更多的发现。

Tourism on the Rise

正在发展的旅游业

In 2015, some 2.5 million foreign tourists visited Colombia, up about 12% from 2014 and nearly triple that of 2005.1 Weakness in Colombia's currency (the peso) has encouraged foreign travelers, particularly those from the United States as the US dollar has doubled in value against the peso over the past year and a half. Cartagena gets its share of tourists but I think there's no reason why it couldn't match the numbers of visitors to Bogotá, the country's capital and leading tourist destination.

二零一五年,哥伦比亚的外国游客达到250万人次,比二零一四年增长12%,而且是二零零五年的近三倍。[1]哥伦比亚货币(比索)贬值鼓励外国游客的到来,尤其是美国游客,因为过去一年半美元兑比索的汇率上升了两倍。虽然卡塔赫纳拥有一定数量的游客,但我认为该城市在游客数量上有理由与波哥大相匹敌,后者是该国的首都,也是著名的旅游胜地。

In the recent past, tourism in Colombia has suffered because of drug-related violence in the country. However, the Democratic Security and Defense Policy of Álvaro Uribe Vélez (Colombia's president from 2002–2010) designed to regain government control and fight illegal drugs and organized crime, and the “tourist caravans” (caravanas turísticas) proved largely successful. The tourist caravans involved military forces that provided reinforced protection on specific days on roads to major holiday attractions.

近年来,哥伦比亚的旅游业因该国与毒品有关的暴力事件而遭受冲击。然而,哥伦比亚总统阿尔瓦罗·乌里韦·贝莱斯(二零零二年至二零一零年在任)实施民主安全与防卫政策,旨在夺回政府控制权,并打击非法毒品与组织犯罪,而“观光大篷车”也基本上取得成功。观光大篷车涉及军队力量,在特定日期于去往重要度假景点的途中提供加强保护。

Cartagena, Colombia

The full name of Cartagena in Colombia is actually Cartagena de Indias (Cartagena of the Indies) to differentiate it from the city in Spain from where it got its name. Tourists in Cartagena, Colombia, not only enjoy the tropical climate, the beaches and sea, but also the incredible colonial-era buildings in the old fortress city. The city was a key port for the Spanish empire from the 1500s to 1700s and became a center for wealthy traders, soldiers and royalty. The walled city and fortress is designated as a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

在哥伦比亚,卡塔赫纳的全称实际上是Cartagena de Indias(西印度群岛的卡塔赫纳),以区分西班牙的同名城市。来到哥伦比亚卡塔赫纳的游客不仅可以享受到热带气候、海滩和大海,还可以领略到旧要塞在殖民时代的奇妙建筑。十六到十八世纪期间,该城市是西班牙帝国的重要港口,并成为富商、士兵和皇室的汇聚地。这座围墙城市和要塞被联合国教科文组织指定为世界遗产。

Gold and other treasures from all of Latin America were the impetus for the city's early growth since the port was an ideal jumping-off point for the Spanish galleons to ship treasures to Spain via Havana. Cartagena's walled city and fortress are among the best-preserved of any in the Americas, probably because having such wealth made it the target of Spain's enemies in Europe as well as pirates.

来自整个拉丁美洲的黄金和其他宝物推动了该城市的早期发展,因为该港口是西班牙大帆船向西班牙(途径哈瓦那)运送宝物的一个理想起点。卡塔赫纳的围墙城市和要塞是整个美洲保存最完好的,可能是因为拥有该财富,其成为西班牙在欧洲的敌人和海盗的目标。

Cartagena, Colombia

Walking around the old city was a joy for me since it took me back to colonial times when the city was the jewel in Spain's Latin America crown. Within the fortress walls are streets and alleys lined with old colonial buildings which have been beautifully restored into all kinds of shops from cheap tourist trinkets to high-end fashion stores, restaurants and hotels. As we were walking, we came to a square near a cathedral where singers and dancers were holding an impromptu concert. Further on, we had to avoid horse-drawn carriages taking tourists through the narrow cobblestone streets. We passed an elegant hotel originally built in 1621 that formerly served as a Catholic convent, charity hospital, a prison and a school of medicine throughout its history. In 1991, a group of Colombian investors restored the building and many artifacts were found hidden under the ruins, water wells and other parts of the foundation. The nuns' former dining room was transformed into one of the city's most-famous gourmet restaurants.

在老城漫步是一种乐趣,它将我带回到殖民时期,当时这个城市是西班牙在拉丁美洲皇冠上的宝石。在要塞墙内,大街小巷林立着老殖民地建筑,这些建筑精心修复后变身为各种商店,有物美价廉的旅游纪念品,也有高端的时装店、餐厅和酒店。一路走来,我们走到一座大教堂附近的广场,人们在那里载歌载舞,是在举办即兴音乐会。再往前走,我们不得不避开搭载游客穿梭于狭窄的鹅卵石街道的马车。我们路过一间始建于一六二一年的雅致的酒店,该酒店在漫长的历史中曾经是天主教修道院、慈善医院、监狱和医学院。一九九一年,哥伦比亚的一支投资团队修复了这座建筑,他们发现了很多埋藏在废墟、水井和地基其他部分的手工艺品。以前修女用的餐厅已被改造成该城市最著名的美食餐厅之一。

Cartagena's walled city today is just a small part of what has become a major metropolis. The Boca Grande (Big Mouth) area between Cartagena Bay and the Caribbean Sea includes most of the tourist attractions, including hotels, shops, restaurants, nightclubs and art galleries, as well as beaches with volcanic gray sand and comfortably warm water to match the warm weather.

如今,卡塔赫纳的围墙城市只是这个大都市的一小部分。卡塔赫纳湾与加勒比海之间的波卡格兰德(大嘴巴)地区囊括了大部分的旅游胜地,配备酒店、商店、餐厅、夜总会和美术馆,而且海滩上是火山爆发后形成的灰色沙子,海水温暖而舒适,可谓气候宜人。

We also visited a new, modern mall in the city, along with high-rise developments and the port and industrial area. Cartagena's port services cities all over the country with truck drivers converging there. The drivers we encountered using a popular, on-demand car service were polite and helpful, and I peppered them with various questions to get a local perspective as we toured the city. When my colleagues and I saw a police barrier with cars being stopped, I asked our youthful driver whether the police were honest. His answer, “no,” was equally honest and quick. Unfortunately, we have found corruption is fairly widespread around the world (even in developed countries) and is often considered a cost of doing business. The good news is that with smartphones and the Internet and the like, it is becoming more transparent and there have been strides in eradicating it in many areas.

我们还参观了该城市一个新建的现代商场,以及高楼大厦、港口和工业区。卡塔赫纳的港口服务覆盖全国,很多货车司机聚集于此。我们用一个流行的随叫随到的汽车服务请到了司机,他们有礼貌而且乐于助人,在游览该城市的时候我提了很多问题,得到一个本地的视角。我们在途中看到一个警察路障截停车辆,我问年轻的司机那些警察是否诚实。他同样诚实而且快速地回答“不诚实”。很遗憾,我们发现在全球范围内腐败是很普遍的事情,即使是在发达国家,而且通常被视为经商的成本。好在我们拥有智能手机和互联网以及其他,腐败事件变得更透明,而且很多地区正在大力消除这种行为。

We scanned the Spanish-language newspapers for other topics of concern to the city and nation, with one interesting headline translated as: “The Economic Environment Is Difficult but Not Dire.” The paper featured an interview with President Juan Manuel Santos and quoted him as saying that if peace with the FARC rebels is accomplished it will be the most spectacular year in the country's history. FARC, a Marxist-Leninist guerrilla movement fighting the government since 1964, is short for “Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia,” translated into English as, the “Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.” The United States and Europe consider FARC a terrorist organization responsible for a number of crimes. Colombia's government and FARC have come together over the past month to negotiate a possible bilateral cease-fire agreement, although a full peace deal remains elusive for now.

我们浏览西班牙语的报纸,寻找与这个城市和国家有关的其他话题,发现了其中一个有趣的标题,翻译过来是“经济环境虽严峻,但并不可怕”。该报纸讲述了对总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯的一个专题访问,并引用了总统的话“如果能够实现与反政府FARC的和平共处,这将成为本国史上最壮观的一年。”FARC成立于一九六/四年的反政府的马列主义游击队伍,是 “ Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia ” 的缩写,翻译成中文是“哥伦比亚革命武装力量”。美国和欧洲认为FARC是一个恐怖组织,犯下很多罪行。哥伦比亚政府和FARC在上个月会面谈判双边停火协议,但目前尚未达成全面和平协议。

Summing up our trip to Cartagena during the weekend, it was clear to us that the city was a great tourist destination that is certain to attract more visitors in the coming years as Colombia's reputation as a safe and peaceful country begins to gain wider acceptance.

我们总结了周末的卡塔赫纳之旅,显然该城市是一个很好的旅游胜地,随着哥伦比亚“安全与和平国家”的名声被广泛接受,该城市在未来几年内肯定会吸引更多的游客。

Medellín

麦德林

Our next stop was the city of Medellín, which features a mountainous landscape dotted with skyscrapers that seem to be climbing them. When I first visited Medellín in the 1990s, I felt a lot of trepidation upon landing at the airport because Medellín and Cali were known as “drug capitals” with drug cartels ruling those cities. I could understand why Medellín could be a perfect hiding place for criminals because of its many hills and mountains covered with thick forests. However, once I checked into my hotel and started visiting companies and talking with people, I felt more at ease, and my colleagues and I realized that despite its reputation, legitimate business was being carried out and perhaps some of our fears were overblown.

我们的下一站是麦德林,该城市的特色是连绵的山地上点缀着无数的摩天大楼,看似大楼在爬山。我二十世纪九十年代首次拜访麦德林,飞机降落后我感到非常恐慌,因为当时麦德林和卡利是众所周知的“毒品之都”,这些城市由毒品团伙控制着。我知道为什么麦德林是罪犯的最佳藏匿处,因为这里拥有很多丘陵和山地,而且覆盖着厚厚的森林。然而,入住酒店然后拜访公司并与人交谈后,我感到比较放松,我和同事都意识到,虽然该城市声名狼藉,但却进行着正当的业务,也许我们是有些过分恐慌了。

Medellín, Colombia

Founded during the Spanish colonial period in the early 1600s, Medellín has a long history and was named after a village in Spain. Medellín is Colombia's second-largest city (after Bogotá) and has a population of about four million. Given the difficult terrain where Medellín is located, one would not expect a city of this size to have sprung up, but the production and export of gold mined in the surrounding mountains explains the attraction. During colonial times, the city was a prime target for Spanish explorers who were sucking up all the gold and silver they could get their hands on in Latin America to ship back to Spain. Later, the environment was found to be ideal for coffee production, which became a key export and encouraged the development of a class of ambitious traders and entrepreneurs whose descendants have now made the city a powerhouse of innovation and growth. Today, there are a number of world-class companies based in Medellín which have extended their businesses all over Latin America and elsewhere. Access to the city continues to improve amid a number of infrastructure projects including airports, better roads and railroads. To overcome the incredibly mountainous terrain even in the heart of the city, there is a 1,260-foot-long outdoor escalator that brings passengers to villages on the mountains. There are also plans for tunnels to connect the airport to the city so travelers can avoid the arduous, albeit spectacularly scenic route.

麦德林始建于十六世纪初西班牙殖民时期,历史悠久,并以西班牙的一个村庄命名。麦德林是哥伦比亚仅次于波哥大的第二大城市,约有400万人口。鉴于麦德林所处地形复杂,人们认为这种规模的城市不会如此迅速地发展,但在环绕的群山中采掘和出口的黄金是其具吸引力的原因。在殖民时期,该城市是西班牙探险家们的主要目标,他们汲取在拉丁美洲所能得到的所有金银,然后运送回西班牙。随后,人们发现这里的环境适合生产咖啡豆,咖啡豆也因此成为重要的出口商品,并鼓励一班雄心壮志的贸易商和企业家发展,其后人将该城市打造成如今兼具创新和增长的大都市。如今,麦德林有很多世界级的公司,其将业务扩展至整个拉丁美洲和其他地区。在大量基建项目的推动下,包括机场、修建公路和铁路,该城市将会继续完善。为了克服山地地形带来的难题,甚至是在城市的中心,都有一个长达1,260英尺的室外扶梯,把乘客带到山上的村庄。这里也有连接机场到城市的隧道方案,因此,游客可以避开虽然壮观但很险峻的风景线。

Home to the Medellín Cartel headed by the infamous Pablo Escobar, the city was the site of various drug wars in the 1980s. Since the death of Escobar in 1993, violence declined and in 2002, former President Álvaro Uribe ordered the military to disband urban militias such as the FARC as part of a key effort to reduce overall violence in the country. There were a number of other efforts to improve Medellín, with hotels, museums, parks and other facilities developed along with infrastructure improvements. Most of Medellin's major newer buildings include public art, and today the city is a vibrant, welcoming place for tourists.

麦德林是臭名昭著的巴勃罗·埃斯科瓦尔领导的麦德林集团的所在地,该城市在二十世纪八十年代发生过各种毒品战争。自埃斯科瓦尔在一九九三年死亡后暴力事件有所减少,二零零二年,前总统阿尔瓦罗·乌里韦命令军队解散城市民兵(例如FARC),这是减少该国整体暴力事件重要计划的一部分。为了完善麦德林,政府还作出很多其他努力,包括开发酒店、博物馆、公园和其他设施,以及完善基建。麦德林大部分的主要建筑都比较新,包括公共艺术,如今,该城市已变得生机勃勃,受游客青睐。

On the business side, one of Colombia's largest conglomerates is located in Medellín, so we took the opportunity to meet with one of the group's directors, who remembered meeting me a number of years ago when he was a securities analyst. He told us about a recent reorganization and expansion, and conveyed that he is seeing more potential opportunities for growth tied to the region's growing middle class. We talked about the intricacies of doing business in the region—including Brazil—which offers the added challenge of a different language (Portuguese) than the majority of Latin America (Spanish).

商业方面,哥伦比亚最大的综合性大企业之一位于麦德林,因此我们借此机会会见该集团的一名董事,他还记得很多年前自己还是一名证券分析师时曾经见过我。他向我们透露了一些关于近期的重组和扩张计划,并表示其发现了该地区不断壮大的中产阶级带来的较具潜力的增长机会。我们讨论在该地区(包括巴西)错综复杂的经商环境,该地区的语言(葡萄牙语)差异导致其比拉丁美洲大部分地区(西班牙语)更具挑战性。

Looking at Latin America overall, officials at the company confirmed to us that the region had suffered from currency devaluations and higher interest rates. However, the real economies in the region have been doing fairly well and corporate profit-and-loss statements of many companies appeared healthy. We talked about the lifestyles of Latin America's 22 million middle-class people, and the proliferation of financial products targeting them as they save and invest for their futures. The company took the innovative step of hiring anthropologists and sociologists to actually live in communities throughout Latin America to observe how money was used and spent as well as studying the daily life of the people.

该公司的高层向我们确认,纵观整个拉丁美洲,该地区受到货币贬值和较高利率的冲击。然而,该地区的实体经济表现得相当好,而且很多公司的损益表较稳健。我们谈到拉丁美洲2,200万中产阶级的生活方式,以及增加针对其将来储蓄和投资推出的金融产品。该公司采取了创新措施——聘请人类学家和社会学家居住生活在整个拉丁美洲的社区里,观察人们如何支配金钱,并研究人们的日常生活。

Barriers to Businesses—and Risks

商业壁垒—与风险

Similar to our experiences visiting Brazil and other countries in Latin America, we learned that misguided government regulation was considered one of the biggest risks or concerns expressed by businesses in Colombia, but we also learned how companies were overcoming challenges and finding new areas of growth.

与我们参观巴西和拉丁美洲其他国家的经历相似,我们发现在错误思想指导下的政府监管是哥伦比亚商业所面临的最大风险或忧虑之一,但我们也发现各公司正在克服困难,寻找新的增长领域。

On my recent trip, I returned to a cement producer that I had visited back in 1998. I recalled how the managing director had assured us the company would be able to survive during what was then a very challenging time. Fortunately, it did! We laughed about how I expressed a lot of fear about the health of the company and how he said: “Don't worry, Mobius!” This time we discussed the Colombian government's “4G program,” the fourth generation of infrastructure plans to build roads connecting all the major cities in the country. Of course, this effort would require a large amount of cement; in Colombia, cement consumption is still dominated by small users who buy the cement in bags and not in bulk. Housing represents an area of additional potential growth, not only for cement but other industries and companies in the country, as the median age of Colombia's population is under 30,2 and as these young people get married and have families they will need improved housing and will likely purchase other consumer goods.

在近期的旅途中,我再次拜访一九九八年回访过的一名水泥生产商。我回想起其董事总经理是如何笃定该公司将能够在当时极其艰难的时期幸存下来。幸运的是,它做到了!想起当时的情景我们都笑了,我当时表示非常担忧该公司的状况,而他说:“麦朴思,你不需要担心!”这次我们讨论哥伦比亚政府的“4G项目”,即建设连接该国所有主要城市公路的第四代基建计划。毫无疑问,该项目即将需要大量的水泥,在哥伦比亚,水泥的消费对象仍以较小的用户为主,他们购买袋装水泥,而不是大批购买。房屋是拥有额外潜在增长的一个领域,这不仅对水泥而言,对该国其他行业和公司亦然,因为哥伦比亚人口的年龄中值低于30岁,[2]而且当这些年轻人结婚和组建家庭将需要改善住房问题,并将有可能购买其他日常消费品。

Medellín, Colombia

With global operations, the cement company offers an example of how companies in Medellín have expanded into other countries to tap new markets. We discussed how freight was a very important part of the cost of cement and therefore cement is very much a local industry serving a market of within about a 100-kilometer radius around a plant.

该水泥公司的业务遍布全球,这是麦德林的公司向其他国家扩张开拓新市场的一个例子。我们谈到货运是水泥成本的一个非常重要的部分,因此,水泥是极其本地化的一个行业,服务的市场范围大约是工厂半径100千米以内。

While oil represents less than 10% of Colombia's gross domestic product (GDP),3 oil exports remain an important part of government revenue. Energy prices affect transport costs, but also ripple through other areas of the economy. When visiting a bank, the first question we asked was about the impact of low oil prices on the bank and the country generally. A good coffee harvest in 2014 helped offset some of Colombia's oil-related earnings, but the threat of drought in some of the coffee-growing areas in 2015 and early 2016 is having an adverse impact on government budgets. Therefore, the bank executives speculated that another round of tax reform to fix a fiscal deficit could be coming in the form of a value-added (VAT) tax or perhaps even a dividend tax.

虽然石油占哥伦比亚国内生产总值的比例不足10%,[3]但石油出口依然是政府收入的一个重要部分。能源价格会影响运输成本,但也会传递到经济的其他领域。如果要投资一间银行,我们首先会问低油价整体上会对银行和国家造成什么影响。二零一四年咖啡豆大丰收,帮助哥伦比亚弥补了一些与石油相关的收入,但在二零一五年和二零一六年初,部分咖啡豆种植地区受到干旱威胁,这对政府预算产生不利的影响。因此,银行高管推测将会迎来新一轮税收改革以修补财政赤字,可能会以增值税方式,或者甚至是股息税形式。

The bank executives were also concerned about an uptick in inflation. In February, consumer price inflation rose 7.5%—quite a bit above the government's target of 2% to 4%—leading the nation's central bank to raise interest rates in March for the seventh month in a row.4 The recent increase in inflation was mainly due to a rise in food prices and was expected to come back down a bit going forward, but bears watching. Nevertheless, the bankers felt that the potential for financial services was strong, as it is estimated that about a third of adults in Colombia have no financial accounts.

银行高管还担忧通胀上升问题。二月份,居民消费价格通胀上升至7.5%,高出政府2%至4%的目标相当多,导致国家央行在三月份连续第七个月加息。[4]近期通胀上升主要是由于食物价格上升,而且预计未来将略有回落,但有待观察。尽管如此,银行家们认为金融服务的潜力强劲,据估计,哥伦比亚三分之一的成年人没有金融账户。

I also returned to visit a food company that had specialized in chocolate production (Colombians generally drink hot chocolate for breakfast instead of coffee or tea) but has been branching out since then into other areas, including the restaurant business, and expanding globally through acquisitions. I recall one of the executives telling me about two decades ago (amid my early trepidation) that Medellín was a great city with lots of potential and an important industrial center. His assessment proved right! The plant we visited was very impressive and clean, and all the workers we saw were wearing white uniforms.

我还重新拜访了一间食品公司,该公司过去主要生产巧克力(哥伦比亚早餐一般喝热巧克力,而不是咖啡或茶),但该公司从那时起不断向其他领域(包括餐馆业务)扩展业务,并以收购形式向全球扩张。一名高管曾告诉我,大约在二十年前(我早期感到恐慌的那段时间),麦德林是一个强大的城市,拥有无数的潜力,而且是重要的工业中心。他的评估确实是正确的!我们参观的工厂令人印象深刻,而且非常干净,我们看到的所有工人都穿着白色制服。

The executives we spoke with said the government's tax reform efforts were generally bad for business, and we talked about how the “wealth tax” discouraged investment. Therefore, they said that they were not opening more plants in Colombia but expanding manufacturing in other countries where the tax and investment incentives were better. The weaker exchange rate for the Colombian peso has been good for many export-oriented businesses in Colombia though, since it made their products more competitive and discouraged foreign competition from coming into the market.

与我们交谈的高层表示,政府的税收改革措施基本上不利好商业,我们还讨论“财富税”如何阻碍投资。因此,他们表示不会在哥伦比亚开设更多工厂,但会在税收和投资激励政策更好的其他国家扩大生产。然而,哥伦比亚比索汇率下降利好该国很多出口型企业,因为比索汇率下跌令其商品更具竞争力,而且阻碍了国外竞争者进入市场。

Labor strikes are another problem facing businesses in Colombia. In early 2016, the Central Union of Workers (Central Unitaria de Trabajadores de Colombia, CUT), the largest trade union federation with 500,000 members and over 500 unions in the public and private sectors, threatened work stoppages and strikes in protest of a government decree granting a 7% rise in the monthly minimum wage to about US$212 per month. The CUT said it would challenge the decree at the Council of State (Consejo de Estado), Colombia's highest administrative court. You would think the increase would be celebrated, but the CUT claimed the increase violated the constitution because it was below what it deemed as the inflation rate.

罢/工是哥伦比亚商业面临的另一个问题。最大的工会联合会——工人中央工会(Central Union of Workers, CUT)拥有500,000名成员,以及超过500个公共和私营行业工会,该工会在二零一六年初示/威停工和罢/工,抗/议政府颁布的将每月最低工资上调7%至约212美元的法令。工人中央工会表示其将向哥伦比亚最高行政法院挑战国务院的法令。有人会认为该上调幅度值得庆贺,但工人中央工会声称此次上调属于违宪,因为上调幅度低于通胀率。

The first focus of Colombia's new government is law and order, which includes neutralizing or disbanding the various revolutionary movements in the country. Besides FARC, another group the government has had to deal with is the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional, ELN), which came under pressure to work with the government in light of FARC's willingness to negotiate. The Úsuga clan is another criminal group which has committed a number of crimes including tapping oil from oil pipelines, some of which was apparently used for producing cocaine. The Colombian Petroleum Association estimates that as much as 300,000 barrels of oil were stolen in 2015.

哥伦比亚新政府的第一核心是法律与秩序,包括调和或遣散该国的各种革命运动组织。除了FARC外,政府必须处理的另一个集团是民族解放/军(ELN),FARC愿意进行谈判为民族解放/军带来与政府合作的压力。Úsuga集团是另一个犯罪集团,曾犯下很多罪行,包括从石油管道导出石油,部分石油显然是用于生产可卡因。哥伦比亚石油协会预测二零一五年被盗的石油多达300,000桶。

Although the challenges are great, Colombia's government has by and large risen to meet them. In its annual evaluation, the local chapter of Transparency International, the group that monitors corruption in governments around the world, reported significant improvements in transparency among public service companies in Colombia on variables such as openness, dialogue, rules and control. Unfortunately, those improvements were not reflected in perceptions; Transparency International's public perception index indicated that the perception of corruption in Colombia has actually risen since 2012 despite the fact that corruption itself declined.5 This may be because of the increasing use of smartphones, which has accelerated communications between members of the public and simply made them more aware of these matters.

尽管面临着极大的挑战,但总的来说哥伦比亚政府能够应对,透明国际(监察政府腐败的国际组织)地方分会在其年度评估报告中称,哥伦比亚公共服务公司在多个方面的透明度显著提高,例如公开性、对话、条例和控制。很遗憾,这些改善并不反映在认知上,透明国际的公共清廉指数显示,哥伦比亚的腐败感知自二零一二年以来确实一直在上升,即使腐败实际上在减少。[5]这有可能是因为智能手机的更广泛使用,从而促进公共成员之间的沟通,而且这只会加强其对这些问题的意识。

Over the many years that we have been investing in Colombia, we have seen great improvements. The government's reform path is clear, and if it is able to resolve issues regarding FARC and other groups, we believe conditions for investors will likely further improve. More importantly, if Colombia's government is able to resolve its budget issues without resorting to burdensome taxation, while moving privatization forward to fund infrastructure developments, we think the future could be very bright for this beautiful nation.

在哥伦比亚投资多年以来,我们见证了该国的巨大改善。政府的改革之路很明确,而且如果政府能够解决有关FARC及其他集团的问题,我们相信投资环境将有可能进一步改善。更重要的是,如果哥伦比亚政府能够在不借助重税手段的情况下解决其预算问题,同时推动私有化进程为基建发展融资,这个美丽的国家将会有一个非常好的未来。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “ 新兴市场的投资冒险 ” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: Colombia Ministry of Tourism.

[1] 资料来源:哥伦比亚旅游部。

2. Source: CIA The World Factbook, as of 2015.

[2] 资料来源:美国中情局《世界概况》,截至二零一五年。

3. Source: The World Bank, as of 2014.

[3] 资料来源:世界银行,截至二零一四年。

4. Source: Bloomberg LP.

[4] 资料来源:彭博资讯。

5. Source: Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, 2012–2015 data.

[5] 资料来源:透明国际清廉指数,二零一二至二零一五年数据。

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