中国之旅:从南宁到贵阳
Travels in China: Nanning to Guiyang
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2019-12-31 16:45
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本帖还有中文(简体)、荷兰文、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

My team and I recently embarked on a tour of a number of cities in China to see the economic conditions for ourselves and speak with company executives about the business climate. Here is my report on the cities of Nanning and Guiyang in southeast China.

最近我和我的团队踏上中国之旅,游历了很多城市,考察当地的经济条件,还与公司高管讨论商业氛围。本文是我们对中国东南地区城市——南宁和贵阳的见闻。

Nanning

南宁

My team and I arrived in Nanning via high-speed train from Shenzhen, making a few stops along the way. We were in Nanning on the biggest Internet sales day of the year: “Singles Day 1111,” named for the 11th day of the 11th month (November 11). Singles Day is comparable to “Cyber Monday” in the United States, which follows the Thanksgiving holiday there in November. On both occasions, online merchants offer heavy discounts and promos to entice shoppers. Given the tremendous online sales push, I expected physical shopping malls in Nanning would not be doing much business. However, that wasn't the case. I went to buy a pair of pants at the mall near my hotel and had to wait for 20 minutes in a long line of people, many of whom were simultaneously shopping on their smartphones. We learned that for one of the largest online retailers in China, mobile phone users accounted for more than 60% of sales on Singles Day in 2015. Meanwhile, some of our own analysts were hitting their smartphones and computers to get those big bargains, too!

我和我的团队从深圳乘坐高铁到达南宁,沿途有几个站。我们在南宁的时候正赶上一年一度最大的网络销售日,即十一月十一日“双11光棍节”。光棍节可与美国十一月份感恩节之后的“网络星期一”相提并论。在这两个节日里,线上商家都会提供大折扣,并刊登广告来吸引买家。鉴于线上销售力度巨大,我预计南宁的实体商场的销售并不会很好。然而,事实并非如此。我在酒店附近的商场买一条裤子需要排很长的队等候20分钟,队伍中很多人同时还在用手机购物。我们从中国其中一个最大的线上零售商那里了解到,二零一五年光棍节的销售额中手机消费占60%以上。与此同时,我们一些分析师也在不断地点击手机和电脑来抢大优惠!

In Nanning, China

We left the mall long after dark to find crowds outside looking at groups of dancers promoting a property development. As the women danced—dressed in uniforms with the company logo on them—brochures were handed out to the crowd. It was an indication to us of the property boom taking place in the city, and of the rather aggressive sales efforts of property development companies.

天黑很久之后我们才离开商场,在外面看到一群人正在观看一个房地产开发项目的促销舞蹈表演。身穿印有公司标志制服的女人一边跳舞一边向人群分发宣传册。这表明该城市的房地产正在蓬勃发展,而且房地产开发公司的销售力度也相当大。

Located in Guangxi Province, Nanning is a formidable city with a population of 6.6 million, but to many travelers, it's a stopping-off point on the way to scenic Guilin. The Chinese characters for Nanning mean “southern tranquility,” and it has been known as a “green city” because of its abundance of tropical plants. My impression was that Nanning today is more of a concrete jungle than a green jungle. Even though there are already many skyscrapers in Nanning, I counted more than 20 buildings under construction that looked to be at least 30 stories high.

南宁是位于广西省的一个大城市,拥有660万人口,但对很多游客来说,南宁是去往旅游胜地桂林的中转站。南宁的汉字意思指“南方的宁静”,这里拥有丰富的热带植物,被誉为“绿色城市”。如今的南宁给我的印象更倾向于一个钢筋水泥丛林,而不是绿色丛林。虽然南宁已经建有很多摩天大楼,但我发现在建的建筑至少有20栋,而且看上去至少有30层楼高。

Nanning is also famous as a stopping-off point for travel to Vietnam. There are plans to build a high-speed railway to the nearby Vietnamese border to better integrate the Pearl River Delta (Hong Kong, Shenzhen and other cities in southeast China) along with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

南宁也是去往越南旅游的著名中转站。目前正计划建设通往越南边境附近的高铁,以更好地连接珠江三角洲(香港、深圳和中国东南地区其他城市)与东盟成员国。

The morning after our arrival, we drove to a milk factory in an industrial area, passing many high-rise office and residential buildings along the way. The company's main business is buffalo milk and yogurt in different flavors, some unusual to me, such as red bean and black bean. Buffalo's milk is much richer than cow's milk and therefore sells at a premium. The company's milk distribution is comprehensive, with products sold not only through its own shops but also via sales in supermarkets, the Internet, and its own team of workers on bicycles delivering every day directly to hundreds of thousands of homes. Like many other companies in China, the company began in a traditional industry but has been branching out into unrelated areas such as media, Internet, travel and financial services.

到达南宁之后的第一个早晨,我们驱车前往一个工业区的一间牛奶工厂,沿途经过很多摩天写字楼和住宅。该公司的主营业务是不同口味的水牛奶和酸奶,其中包括我不常见的红豆和黑豆口味。水牛的奶比奶牛的奶营养更丰富,因此价格也更贵。该公司拥有全面的牛奶分销渠道,他们的产品不仅通过自有的商店销售,还通过超市和网络,以及自身的员工团队每日骑自行车直接送往千家万户。与中国很多公司相似,该公司起步时为传统行业,但目前已拓展至与传统行业不相关的领域,如媒体、互联网、旅游和金融服务。

We left Nanning in the morning for a five-hour trip to Guiyang via train. We passed farms growing rice, corn and other crops but could see no farmers. We wondered where they were. In the city?

我们早上离开南宁,乘坐五个小时的火车前往贵阳。我们途径种植水稻、玉米和其他农作物的农田,却没有看到农民。我们很疑惑他们到底去了哪里,难道在城里?

Guiyang

贵阳

Like a number of prosperous cities in China, Guiyang is situated on a river, the Nanming River, which is a branch of the Wu River. Guiyang is the key commercial hub of the province and a number of local and international firms have retail and wholesale operations there. Hydroelectric power plants along the river supply as much as 70% of the city's electricity, in addition to coal-fired plants supplied by coal mined in the province.

中国很多繁华的城市都临水而建,贵阳也不例外,贵阳坐落在乌江的支流南明河旁。贵阳是贵州省主要的商业中心,很多当地与国际公司均在此拥有零售与批发业务。除省内以燃煤供电的煤电站外,沿河的水力发电站为这个城市供应多达70%的电力。

In Guiyang, China

Many high-rise apartments have been built or are under construction in this mountainous area, and I saw this as confirmation of the urban migration taking place all over China from rural areas. Similar to Nanning, I counted at least 20 high-rise apartments of about 30 stories each under construction while another 20 had been completed. While the roads in the area are excellent, I wondered whether they could handle all the additional traffic once all these new residents move in. Infrastructure building was still underway with lots of tunnels being dug in the mountainsides. While the road network was extensive, in our view there was still a lot of work to be done in terms of infrastructure and providing services like electricity to all the future residents.Our team toured a new development in what appeared to be an entirely new city in the region. It was a huge complex of 52 buildings, each 30 stories high and each with 120 apartments. The grounds included gardens, fountains and a French-style swimming pool. We looked at the costs of the units and the company's potential profits. The developers told us their strategy is to raise prices once 60% of the project is sold.

在这个山地地区,很多高楼大厦已经崛起或正在兴建中,这证实了整个中国农村向城市迈进的城市化进程 。与南宁相似,我数了数,在建的30多层的高楼大厦至少有20栋,另外20栋已建成。虽然这里的道路状况良好,但我怀疑新居民全部迁入后,这些道路能否承载所有新增的车流量。该城市仍在进行基建建设,很多山腰处正在修建隧道。尽管已扩大了道路网络,但我们认为在基建和服务供应方面(如向未来所有的居民供电)仍有大量的工作要做。我们团队参观了一处新开发区,那似乎是该地区一座全新的城市。这里有52栋大型综合建筑,每栋有30层楼高,120套公寓。公园里有花园、喷泉和一个法式游泳池。我们了解了各个单元的运营成本和公司的潜在利润。开发商告诉我们,他们的策略是,一旦出售的项目达到60%就提高房价。

High-rise apartments in Guiyang, China

While we've heard reports of falling real estate prices in some of the smaller (second- or third-tier) cities in China, we didn't see widespread evidence of that; sales still seemed generally robust in the areas we toured. We were told most buyers in this area were not speculators—they were planning to live in the developments—and 20% were from the countryside. Two light railways are expected to connect people to the development, one direct from the old city center. Like the dairy company we visited in Nanning, housing developers have branched out in a number of other activities as well—from health care to technology to cooking oil.

虽然我们有听闻有关中国少数小型 (二、三线) 城市的房价下跌的报道,但我们所看到的这方面的证据并不多;对于我们所参观的地区,房产业的销售形势总体仍呈现出强势劲头。我们得知当地居民选择买房大多并非出于投机目的,其中20%的人来自农村,他们计划在这里定居。两条轻轨的建成为人们到达开发区提供了便利,其中一条路线以老城区为起点。就像我们在南宁参观的那家乳业公司一样,房地产开发商在医疗保健、科技和食用油等其他领域建立了拓展业务。

Our trip included a tour of Qingyan Ancient Town, a famous historical and cultural attraction just south of Guiyang where we enjoyed its ancient architecture. Now a tourist draw, it was originally built in 1378 during the Ming Dynasty as a military outpost, and thus, was surrounded by a wall. Located in a rocky area, most buildings and walls in the town are made of stone, and the main street was flanked with various shops and restaurants selling tea, local snacks, and a wide variety of traditional goods. The many beautiful buildings there include temples and a Christian church and monastery; French missionaries introduced Catholicism to the area in 1851. We also visited the elegant home of a scholar who won the national examination during the Qing Dynasty and became a government official. He collected unusual stones from all over China, displayed in the courtyard.

我们的旅程包括参观青岩古镇,古镇位于贵阳南郊,是一处著名的历史文化胜地,我们在那里欣赏了古老的建筑。古镇始建于明朝一三七八年间,原为军事要塞,四周环绕着城墙,如今已成为一个旅游胜地 。古镇位于岩石区,镇内大部分建筑和墙体都用石头建造,主街道两旁林立各种销售茶品、当地点心和各类传统商品的商店和饭店。那些精美的建筑当中有很多寺庙,还有一座基督教堂和修道院;法国传教士在一八五一年将天主教传入该地区。我们还参观了一位学者优雅的宅院,这位学者在清朝科举高中后成为政府官员。他从中国各地收集来的奇石都陈列在庭院内。

Qingyan Ancient Town, China

Back at our hotel, I was fascinated by a human-interest television program I came across in Chinese called “Waiting for Me,” which featured people who had lost family members or had other types of missed connections with people—and hoped to be reunited with them. A young girl on the program said that while she was traveling by train one day, a boy helped her with her luggage and was very kind to her. She was too shy to ask his name or phone number or even to thank him, but she kept thinking of him. The show found the young man, who said that he was thinking of her, too, and even kept the railroad ticket from their shared journey. The audience went wild when they were reunited and expressed interest in pursuing a relationship. To me, the program illustrates the universal and fundamental humanity of the Chinese as well as their strong personal and family ties. Regardless of our differences, one thing I've learned in my travels is not only the importance of understanding culture when doing business in a country, but that people all over the world fundamentally are the same in many ways.

回到酒店,我被偶然看到的一档名为《等着我》的电视节目深深吸引,节目充满人情味,主要讲述那些家属走失,或者与其他人失去联系但希望能重逢的人。节目中一个年轻的女孩讲道,有一天她乘火车旅行,有一个男孩帮她搬行李,对她也十分友善。但她羞于询问男孩的名字或手机号码,甚至没对他说声谢谢,但一直记着男孩。节目组找到那个男孩,男孩说他也一直挂念着女孩,甚至保留着他们同程的火车票。两人重逢时观众都在起哄,并想要促成这段姻缘。对我而言,这档节目体现了中国人之间普遍而基本的温情,以及他们强烈的个人与家庭牵绊。尽管我们之间存在差异,但在这次旅行中我学到一件事,在一个国家经商了解该国的文化固然重要,但也要明白全球各地的人们在很多方面基本上是相同的。

A bit of US culture in China?

We left Guiyang again via high-speed train from a beautiful station similar to the ones we found in other cities in China. The security was similar to what you would find in any airport around the world with checks of passports and identification cards, followed by an X-ray of luggage. I found a little bit of America there, not only with some personal necessities available at the station donning US brand names, but also via a picture displaying “Uncle Sam” in his famous World War I/World War II pose with the words (in English) “I Want You!” It was an advertisement for a smartphone payment system, offering a discount or free gift. In addition to the other business ventures I've seen thriving in China, it's a sign that capitalism is alive and well there.

我们再次在一个美丽的火车站搭乘高铁离开贵阳,这个车站与我们在中国其他城市看到的车站很相似。安检与全世界任何机场的安检大同小异,无非是检查护照与身份证,接着用X射线扫描行李。我在车站看到一点点美国元素,比如,在车站买到的一些个人用品上贴着美国品牌的商标,还有一个提供折扣与赠品的手机支付系统广告图上印有“山姆大叔”在一/二战的经典姿势,下面写着“I Want You”几个英文单词。除了我在中国见到的其他蓬勃发展的企业外,这是资本主义在中国发展良好的迹象。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅 “ 新兴市场的投资冒险 ” (Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets) 博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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