世界秩序能否跟上世界格局的转变——观点
Can the world order catch up with the world? - Opinion
901字
2020-01-08 00:13
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火星译客

The world turned a corner in 2019. The problem is that the world order didn't turn with it. This disconnect could have disastrous consequences. The biggest global change has been the start of the "Asian century".

世界格局在2019年发生了转变,现在的问题是世界秩序并没有同步转变。这一断层可能会带啦灾难性的后果。最大的一个全球性的转变就是“亚洲年”。

Today, Asia is home to three of the world's top four economic powers (in purchasing power parity terms): China, India and Japan. The region's combined GDP exceeds that of the United States and of the European Union.

当前世界四大经济体中三大在亚洲,分别为中国、印度和日本。该地区总GDP已经超过了美国和欧盟

The US is no longer even the most globalized power; that title now goes to China. Already a larger trading partner to more countries than the US, China is signing more free trade agreements as well, including potentially the largest in history, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The US, by contrast, has abandoned or is abandoning FTAs such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has kept alive without the US with a new name: Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. And the US' share of global trade continues to shrink.

现今美国已不再是全球化方面的老大,这一位置让给了中国。中国现在贸易合作伙伴数量已超过美国,自由贸易范围扩大,包括可能成为历史上最大的区域全面经济伙伴关系。而与之相反,美国已经或正在抛弃各种自由贸易协定,包括跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定,而该协议已被日本首相安倍晋三去掉美国改名为全面渐进的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定。美国在全球贸易中的参与度持续缩减。

The world order has not kept pace with these shifting economic dynamics. On the contrary, the US dollar remains the predominant currency for settling international trade. The US and the EU retain control of the two leading global economic organizations: the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. And the United Nations Security Council-the only body that can issue binding decisions for the UN's 193 member states-is dominated by just a few, largely declining powers.

世界秩序没有跟上经济的转变。相反,美元仍是国际贸易的通用货币。美国和欧盟仍是国际货币基金和世界银行两大全球经济组织的头领。而联合国安理会这一唯一能够为联合国193个成员国发布有约束力的决议的机构由少数几个正在衰落的国家主导

In theory, the easiest of these incongruities to address should be the inadequate influence of emerging powers such as China in the IMF and the World Bank. After all, the US and Europe have already acknowledged-including in the 2006 and 2007 G20 communiqués-that "the selection of senior management of the IMF and World Bank should be based on merit", ensuring "broad representation of all member countries".

理论上来讲,所有不协调问题中最易解决的就是如中国等新兴大国在国际货币基金组织和世界银行中影响力的欠缺。毕竟美国和欧盟已经知晓这一情况,在2006年和2007年的G20峰会上就提出“国际货币基金组织和世界银行中管理者的选择应该遵循利益最大化的原则”,保证“成员国的最大参与度”。

Yet the anachronistic "gentlemen's agreement" that has kept an American at the head of the World Bank and a European leading the IMF has proved stubbornly resilient. In 2007, Dominique Strauss-Kahn became IMF managing director, succeeded by another French citizen, Christine Lagarde, in 2011.

以美国为世界银行的头领、以欧盟为国际货币基金组织的头领这一过时的“君子之约”现在仍在顽强挣扎。2007年多米尼克•斯特劳斯-卡恩成为IMF常务董事,2011年法国人克里斯蒂娜拉加德接替成为新一任常务董事。

Six years later, Lagarde declared that the IMF could be based in Beijing by 2027, if growth trends continue and are reflected in the IMF's voting structure. After all, she noted, the IMF's bylaws call for the institution's head office to be located in the largest member economy.

六年后,拉加德宣布如果经济局势一如既往且投票通过,IMF2027年可将总部搬至北京。她声明道,毕竟依据规章IMF总部应该建于成员国中最大的经济体里。

Yet when Lagarde resigned from her post this year to become president of the European Central Bank, it was another European who took her place: Bulgarian economist Kristalina Georgieva. Likewise, the World Bank presidency passed from Robert Zoellick to Jim Yong Kim in 2012, and then to David Malpass this year. Future historians will marvel at the imprudence of the old powers' shameless refusal to share control of global institutions.

而拉加德今年辞去职务上任欧洲中央银行行长一职后,另一个欧洲人接过她的职务,那边是经济学家格奥尔基耶娃。同样,世界银行行长一职从罗伯特左立科到2012年的金墉,再到今年的大卫马尔帕斯,未来的历史学家将惊叹于老牌大国的鲁莽,它们无耻地拒绝分享对全球机构的控制权。

And yet the IMF and the World Bank are not the only institutions that need reform. The UN Security Council, too, needs to be reformed. If the Security Council's composition is not updated, the body could lose its credibility and moral authority.

但不仅仅是IMF和世界银行需要改革。联合国安理会同样需要改革。如果它不与时俱进,这一组织将失去公信力和威信。

To avert such an outcome, perhaps the Security Council could adopt a 7-7-7 formula. The first seven countries/economies would be permanent members, each representing a different region. The second seven would be semi-permanent members, a rotating selection of 28 countries, based on population and GNP. The remaining 160 countries would rotate into the remaining seven seats.

为了避免这种后果,或许安理会可以采取7-7-7的策略。第一批的7个国家或经济体为常任理事国,分别代表一个地区。第二批为半常任理事国,根据人口和GNP选出28个国家轮流担任,剩下的160个国家轮流担任剩下7个席位。

The most difficult incongruity to resolve will be that between the US' declining leadership and its currency's role as the leading international reserve currency. Today, more than 40 percent of cross-border payments and 90 percent of foreign exchange trading is settled in US dollars. This reflects decades of trust: the US had deep markets, strong institutions-including efficient courts and an independent central bank-and it did not use the dollar as a tool to advance its own interests.

最难解决的问题便是美国日减消退的领导力与美元作为当前国际储备金的角色之间的不协调。当前世界上超过百分之四十的货币跨境流通和百分之九十的国际贸易均使用美元。这体现出长年累月的信任:美元拥有深厚的市场,强大的机构,包括高效的法院和独立的中央银行,且美元并不是推动其自身利益的工具。

But, since 2017, the US administration has been aggressively undermining the international community's trust in the dollar. The White House has pressured the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in order to deliver short-term economic growth. In fact, the White House has weaponized the dollar, labeling China a "currency manipulator" and instructing the US Treasury to put more countries-including close Asian and European allies-under surveillance.

但自2017年以来,美国高层极大地损害了国际社会对美元的信任。白宫促使美联储降低利率来促进短期经济增长。事实上,白宫以美元为武器,将中国视为“货币操纵者”,并授意财政部对包括亚洲和欧盟在内的越来越多国家进行监控。

The US administration's actions have raised the hackles not only of traditional adversaries (Russia leads a new de-dollarization trend), but also of key allies. Jean-Claude Juncker, the former European Commission president, has pledged that the euro would become an "active instrument" of EU sovereignty. It is also telling that France, Germany, and the United Kingdom-in collaboration with China and Russia-have created the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges to bypass US sanctions on Iran.

美国高层的行为为传统及新兴对手提供了机会。欧盟前主席让-克洛德•容克承诺欧元将成为欧盟的前进动力。据说法国、德国、英国连同中国和俄国已经创建了国际贸易机制以规避美国对伊朗的制裁。

But, in a sense, the US administration has done the world a favor by making undeniable what was already obvious. If world leaders do not start addressing the contradictions plaguing the world order soon, the likely result is crisis-and even more dangerous contradictions.

但是从某种意义上说,美国高层将某种既定现实明朗化了,这也是对世界的一大贡献。如果世界各国领导人还不开始处理这些扰乱世界秩序的问题,极大可能出现危机,或者更加严重的灾难。

The writer, a professor in the Practice of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, is the author of Has the West Lost It?

作者为新加坡国立大学公共政策实践教授,《西方是否没落》作者

Project Syndicate

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