新兴市场11月表现多样化| 富兰克林邓普顿
Diverse Emerging Market Performance in November | Franklin Templeton
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2020-01-02 10:09
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It was a mixed month for emerging markets in November, as shifting expectations about a trade deal between China and the United States continued to drive market sentiment. Our emerging markets equity team explains why US-China trade issues may not be that big of a concern for some emerging markets, and provides an overview of the news and events shaping markets during the month.

11月对于新兴市场来说是一个喜忧参半的月份,人们对中美贸易协定的期望的转变继续推动着市场情绪。我们新兴市场团队会就为什么中美贸易问题对某些新兴市场可能并非那么重要的原因进行解释,同时会对11月中影响市场的新闻和事件做一个总体概述。

This post is also available in: French, German

本文其它可用语言版本:法语、德语

Three Things We're Thinking About Today

现今我们正在思考的三个问题

1. MSCI completed the third phase of the 20% partial inclusion of China A-shares in its benchmark indexes during November. Following the increase, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index included 472 China A-share companies with a total weighting of 4.1%. If and when all China A-shares are included in the index, they could account for over 16%, bringing China's total weighting to over 40%. The increased exposure is likely to result in additional inflows in China's domestic A-share market, which, along with improving liquidity, could provide better market accessibility to a wider range of companies in structural growth sectors such as health care, technology and financials. An aging population and rising health care costs should drive demand for health care, including services provided in facilities such as hospitals and clinics. Technological advancements and infrastructure development—including 5G and Internet of Things—are important investment themes. We believe the financials sector also stands to benefit from structural reforms as financial institutions are playing an increasingly important role in the efficient allocation of savings and resources.

1. 摩根斯坦利国际资本公司(MSCI)在11月份完成了将中国A股纳入其基准指数计算的第三阶段的工作,中国A股占此基准指数的20%。随着比例的增加,MSCI新兴市场指数已经包含了472家中国A股公司,在总权重中占比4.1%。如果中国所有的A股都包含在这个基数中,他们的占有率可能超过16%,中国A股在总权重中的比例将高于40%。风险敞口的增加可能导致更多资金流入中国A股市场,资金流动性随之改善,为更多结构性增长领域中的公司(比如医疗保健、技术和金融)提供市场准入的机会。人口老龄化以及医疗保健费用的增加将推动对医疗保健的需求,这包括医院和诊所等卫生设施提供的服务。技术进步和基础设施发展(包括5G和物联网)是重要的投资主题。我们认为,随着金融机构在有效分配储蓄和资源方面发挥越来越重要的作用,金融板块也将从结构性改革中受益。

2. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) analysis is an essential and integral element of our due diligence and is incorporated into our research process. We believe that ESG factors can have a material impact on a company’s current and future corporate value and are an embedded component of the rigorous fundamental bottom-up research our team conducts. As part of assessing a company’s sustainability, we seek to develop a deep understanding of a company’s ESG practices, with the goal of identifying business models that are most likely to sustain high returns and resist competitive pressure over time. Our analysts consistently evaluate material environmental and social issues such as raw material sourcing, waste disposal and safety practices. In assessing corporate governance, we evaluate factors including capital allocation, management track record and conflicts of interest. When potential concerns arise, we believe engaging is in the best interest of our shareholders and will lead to better returns.

2. 环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)分析是我们尽职调查中重要的不可分割的组成部分,已纳入我们的调研程序。我们认为,ESG因素可能对当前以及未来的公司价值产生实质性影响,同时也是我们团队进行的严格自下而上的基础研究中一个嵌入式组成部分。作为评估公司可持续发展性的一部分,我们寻求对公司在ESG方面的操作有深入的了解,以期确定最有可能在一段时间内维持高回报以及抵御竞争压力的商业模式。我们的分析师坚持分析重大的环境和社会问题,例如原材料采购、废物处理和安全措施。在评估公司治理时,我们对包括资本配置、管理记录和利益冲突在内的各种因素进行分析。当潜在的问题出现时,我们相信参与其中才能符合我们股东的最大利益,并带来更好的回报。

3. We believe that, at its core, corporate governance determines how well companies are able to operate in the longer-term interests of all shareholders. Take, Russia, for example. Most investors are unlikely to associate Russia with governance excellence. Yet, many Russian companies have taken the initiative to set higher governance standards and promote shareholder value. As a result, we have seen companies adopt international standards, implement share buyback programs and raise dividends to enhance shareholder value. Indicating the shift in corporate mindsets, the dividend payout ratio in Russia increased from 21.8% at end-2013 to 33.0% at end-2018.1 Despite this, Russia remains one of the most undervalued markets globally, trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 6x and a dividend yield of 7%, as of end-November.2 Overall, we believe Russia continues to offer interesting opportunities for emerging market (EM) investors through exposure to select, well-established companies across the information technology, financials, energy and consumer-related sectors.

3. 我们认为,公司治理能力从根本上决定了公司为其全体股东长期利益运作的能力。以俄罗斯为例,大部分投资者都不会将俄罗斯与卓越治理联系在一起。但是,许多俄罗斯的公司已经主动设立了更高的治理标准以及提高了股东价值。相应地,我们可以看到俄罗斯的公司采用国际标准,实施股票回购计划,并提高股利以提升股东价值。在俄罗斯,至2018年底,股利分配率从2013年底的21.8%增加至33.0%,这一比例的上升显示了企业观念的转变。[1] 尽管如此,俄罗斯仍然是全球最被低估的市场之一。截止11月底,以6倍远期市盈率和7%的股息率交易。[2] 总体而言,我们认为俄罗斯将继续为新兴市场(EM)投资者们提供有趣的机会,让他们通过接触信息技术、金融、能源和消费者相关的领域中的知名公司来进行选择。

Outlook

展望未来

Shifting expectations for the prospects of a phase-one trade deal between China and the United States continued to drive market sentiment in EMs. The passing of the Hong Kong democracy legislation by the United States, which the Chinese government viewed as US interference in domestic matters, raised concerns that negotiations could be hindered. While we believe a trade deal would be in the interest of both economies, we expect continued volatility as both governments pursue an amicable agreement.

对中美达成第一阶段贸易协议的预期的转变继续推动着新兴市场的市场情绪。美国通过了被中国政府视为干涉其内政的“香港人权与民主法案”,引发了人们对可能阻碍谈判进行的担忧。虽然我们认为达成贸易协议是符合中美双方的利益,但我们预计随着两国政府达成友好协议,局势将继续动荡。

We are of the opinion, however, that the dependence of EMs on developed economies continues to decline. EMs have become far more outward-looking, while also developing stronger trading relationships between each other. We believe today's EMs are now more resilient than in previous decades, emerging stronger after periods of economic hardship—such as the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis that affected much of Southeast Asia. Many emerging economies learned lessons from the past, building up cash reserves and diversifying away from US dollar-denominated debt.

但是我们认为,新兴市场对发达国家的依赖将持续下降。新兴市场已经变得更为开放,同时他们彼此之间也建立了更加牢固的贸易关系。我们相信,如今的新兴市场比过去几十年都更具弹性,在经历了经济困难时期(例如影响了东南亚大部分地区的1997年亚洲金融危机)以后,也变得更加强大。许多新兴经济体吸取了过去的教训,积累现金储备,摆脱了以美元计价的债务,实现了债务的多样化。

We have also seen how EM companies are using innovation and technology to leapfrog and disrupt traditional business models. We believe areas such as e-commerce, digital banking and mobile computing will likely be fundamental drivers of the global economy for years to come. EMs' accelerating internet usage and penetration are likewise hastening opportunities for efficiencies, driving cost savings and improving ease of doing business. Promising fields such as artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, robotics and the Internet of Things continue to attract investment, signaling what we view as strong prospects.

我们还看到了新兴市场的公司如何利用创新和技术来超越和打破传统商业模式。我们认为,电子商务、数字银行、移动计算等领域可能成为未来几年全球经济的基本推动力。新兴市场国家加快了其互联网使用和普及程度,这些举措为提高效率、促进节约成本以及改善商业环境提供了机会。人工智能、自动驾驶、机器人和物联网等具有潜力的领域继续吸引投资,这是我们认定为拥有巨大前景的信号。

Consumerism and rising wealth in EMs should also help drive growth in many regions. Growing middle-class populations and increasing affluence continue to spur demand for high-end products in EMs. This “premiumization” trend could boost demand for higher-end items such as luxury cars or services such as entertainment and wealth management. In our view, companies with superior products and services should experience sustainable growth in the years to come.

新兴市场的消费主义和财富增长也有助于推动许多地区的发展。新兴市场中,中产阶级人口的增加和富裕程度的提高,继续刺激了对高端产品的需求。这种“高端化”趋势可能会大大提升诸如豪华轿车等高端产品以及像娱乐和财富管理等服务的需求。在我们看来,拥有优质产品和服务的公司将在未来几年实现可持续增长。

Emerging Markets Key Trends and Developments

新兴市场的主要趋势及发展

Equities edged lower in November, while developed market stocks advanced. Political unrest in parts of Latin America weighed on investor sentiment and dragged currencies in the region lower. Mixed reports on US-China trade talks aimed at finalizing a partial trade deal also fed market caution. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index edged down 0.1% over the month, compared with a 2.8% return for the MSCI World Index, both in US dollars.3

十一月份新兴市场股市小幅下跌,而发达国家股票上涨。拉丁美洲部分地区的政治动荡打压了投资者的情绪,并拉低了该地区的货币价值。关于为达成部分贸易协议而进行的中美贸易谈判的报道,内容不一, 也让市场变得谨慎。 在这个月,MSCI新兴市场指数略微下跌0.1%,而MSCI全球指数回报率为2.8%,两种指数均以美元计算。[3]

The Most Important Moves in Emerging Markets in November

十一月新兴市场最重要的变化

Asian equities rose modestly over the month, thanks to gains in Pakistan, China and Taiwan. Chinese equities rose on signs of progress in US-China trade talks (though fresh US legislation supporting protesters in Hong Kong reined in market optimism). Taiwan's stock market benefited from strength in technology heavyweights. Conversely, market declines in the Philippines, Indonesia and South Korea held back the region's overall performance. Philippine equities succumbed to profit-taking as the central bank paused its interest rate cuts. South Korea's central bank trimmed its economic growth forecasts amidst slower consumption and sluggish exports, and the Korean won weakened.

得益于巴基斯坦、中国和台湾股市的上涨,本月亚洲股市小幅上涨。由于中美贸易谈判表现出了取得进展的迹象(尽管新鲜出炉的美国支持香港示 威者的法案抑制了市场乐观情绪),中国股市上涨。台湾股票市场得益于科技巨头的力量。相反,菲律宾、印尼和韩国市场下滑,影响了亚洲地区的整体表现——由于菲律宾央行暂停降息,菲律宾股市屈服于获利回吐;在消费放缓和出口疲软的情况下,韩国央行下调了其经济增长预期,与此同时韩元贬值。

Social unrest and political turmoil weighed on sentiment in Latin America. Chile was the weakest market in the region, ending the month with a double-digit decline, as protests triggered by a rise in train fares in Santiago escalated into widespread violence. Political noise overshadowed progress on the reform front in Brazil, impacting investor confidence. Depreciation in the Chilean peso and Brazilian real further impacted equity prices. Central banks in Mexico and Peru reduced interest rates during the month amid efforts to stimulate economic growth.

拉丁美洲的社会动乱和政治动荡打压了这个地区的情绪。因圣地亚哥火车票价上涨引发的抗 议升级为大范围的暴力事件,智利成为该地区表现最弱的市场,本月以两位数的下跌结束;政治异议给巴西的改革前沿蒙上了一层阴影,影响了投资者的信心;智利比索币和巴西雷亚尔币的贬值进一步影响了股票价格;在努力刺激经济增长的过程中,墨西哥和秘鲁的央行于本月降低了利率。

Markets in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region recorded mixed results, ending November with a minor decline. Turkey and Hungary were among the top performers, while stock markets in Poland and Egypt declined. Although equity prices fell in South Africa as lower gold prices weighed on performance in materials companies, appreciation in the South African rand helped offset the decline in US dollar terms. The Russian equity market took a breather in November following a strong performance in October.

截止11月底,欧洲、中东和非洲地区的市场表现好坏参半,略有下降。土耳其和匈牙利属于其中表现最好的国家,而波兰和埃及的股市则下跌了。尽管由于黄金价格降低打压了原材料公司的业绩,导致南非的股票价格下跌,但南非兰特币的升值帮助抵消了下跌的影响(按美元计价)。俄罗斯股市在10月份的强劲表现之后,在11月份也出现了短暂的休整期。

Important Legal Information

重要法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The views expressed are those of the investment manager(s) and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the publication date and may change without notice. 

本报告仅供参考,不构成个人投资建议,也不构成购买、出售或投资于任何股票或采用任何投资策略的建议或邀请。 同时,它也不构成法律或税务建议。 本文所表达的观点仅为投资经理的个人观点,并且文中的评论、意见和分析仅反映其发布日期时的情况,如有任何改变,恕不另行通知。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.

本材料的准备过程中可能使用了来自第三方数据源的数据,富兰克林邓普顿投资(下称FTI)没有对该数据进行独立的核实、验证或审计。FTI不对任何由于使用这些信息而引发的损失负责,使用者自行决定是否相信和依赖材料中所陈述的评论观点和分析。

The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments. The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable, but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security.

本文所示的公司和案例研究仅仅是为了说明,同时富兰克林邓普顿投资公司目前可能持有也可能并未持有其建议的投资组合。这些意见旨在让读者深刻理解如何分析证券。本文所提供的信息不是对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐和个人投资建议,也不代表任何富兰克林邓普顿投资公司对其管理的投资组合的交易意图。该材料不能作为任何行业、证券或投资策略所涉及的每一个事实的完整分析,也不能将其视为投资建议,这旨在让读者深刻理解投资组合选择和研究过程。事实陈述取自被认为可靠的数据来源,但并未独立验证其完整性和准确性。 因此这些意见不能被作为投资建议或任何特定证券的购买要约。

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果

Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the US by other FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

并非美国所有司法辖区内都可提供这些产品、服务和信息,在美国境外,在当地法律法规允许的情况下,由FTI其它分支机构和/或其经销商提供。想要获取更多有关您所在辖区可用的产品和服务的信息,请咨询您的专业顾问或者富兰克林邓普顿公司机构联系人。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Special risks are associated with foreign investing, including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments; investments in emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors. To the extent a strategy focuses on particular countries, regions, industries, sectors or types of investment from time to time, it may be subject to greater risks of adverse developments in such areas of focus than a strategy that invests in a wider variety of countries, regions, industries, sectors or investments.

所有投资均有风险,包括本金损失。 在单个公司、特定行业或部门、以及整体市场状况的影响因素的作用下,股价上下波动,有时迅速而剧烈。 国外投资还涉及特殊风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展; 同样因素影响下,新兴市场的投资具有更高的风险。 与对多个国家、地区、行业、部门或投资项目进行投资的策略相比,针对特定国家、地区、行业、部门或投资类型的投资策略,可能因这些领域不良的发展状况而面临更大的风险。

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1. Sources: MSCI, Bloomberg.

1.资料来源:摩根斯坦利国际资本公司(MSCI)、彭博社。 

2. The price-earnings (P/E) ratio is a valuation multiple defined as market price per share divided by earnings per share.

2.市盈率是每股市价除以每股收益的估值倍数。

3. Source: MSCI. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap performance across 23 developed markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

3.资料来源:摩根斯坦利国际资本公司(MSCI)。 MSCI新兴市场指数追踪24支新兴市场国家中具代表性的大中型股票,而MSCI全球指数追踪23支发达市场的大中型股票的表现。指数并未进行托管,因此无法对其直接投资,也并未包含费用、开支以及销售费用。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。MSCI不对本文中其制作使用的数据做任何担保,或是承担任何责任。文中内容不允许再分配和使用。本篇报告并非由MSCI编写或背书。有关重要数据提供者的告示和条款请见www.franklintempletondatasources.com。

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