新兴市场中的马来西亚和伊斯/兰金融
Islamic Finance in Emerging Markets
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2019-12-29 11:19
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The world of Islamic finance and investing represents an exciting world of opportunities for Muslims all over the world, and one we think should likely continue to grow. I recently had the pleasure of attending the Global International Islamic Finance Forum (GIFF) in Malaysia and had the opportunity to share our team's views as well as exchange information on the future of Islamic finance in emerging markets. More than a thousand participants from around the world attended this year's GIFF in Malaysia, which I think is testament to the growth of Islamic finance.

伊斯/兰金融和投资对全球穆斯/林而言是令人振奋的机会,我们认为其将有可能继续增长。近期,我很荣庆出席在马来西亚举行的全球伊斯/兰金融论坛(GIFF),并有机会分享我们的团队观点以及对新兴市场中伊斯/兰金融的未来进行交流。今年的全球伊斯/兰金融论坛中有超过一千名来自世界各地的与会者,我认为这证明了伊斯/兰金融的增长。

Many investors outside the Muslim world might not know much about Islamic finance, but recognition and interest in it has been growing globally. Bank of Malaysia Governor Datuk Muhammad bin Ibrahim spoke at the GIFF and reported that by 2020, total assets in global Islamic finance are expected to reach more than US $3 trillion.1 He also said that in at least 10 jurisdictions, Islamic banking today represents more than 20% of total banking assets, and in many countries, Islamic banking services are offered in tandem with traditional types of financial services and products.2

穆斯/林国家以外的许多投资者可能对伊斯/兰金融知之甚少,但全球越来越多的投资者开始了解伊斯/兰金融,并产生兴趣。马来西亚国家银行行长慕哈末依布拉欣(Datuk Muhammad)在全球伊斯/兰金融论坛上发表讲话称,截至二零二零年,全球伊斯/兰金融的总资产预期将超过3万亿美元。[1]他同时讲到,当前伊斯/兰银行在至少10个司法管辖区的资产占银行总资产的20%以上,许多国家的银行在提供传统类型的金融服务和产品的同时,也都提供穆斯/林银行业务服务。[2]

For those who are not familiar with Islamic finance, it encompasses both equity and credit-based investments (called sukuk) that are compliant with Islamic (Shariah) law. The goal is the same as with other types of investments: to produce a favorable return and/or generate income. The difference is that Islamic investments must adhere to various tenets, including the prohibition of the payment of interest (so-called “riba”) as well as certain forbidden activities and products including alcohol, armaments and a number of foodstuffs and food-related activities. The interpretation of what is Shariah-compliant and what is not can be complex, requiring the active involvement of Islamic scholars (who may not always agree). This can add a layer of complexity for investors. If the main business of a company is not deemed compliant with Shariah law, a portfolio manager cannot purchase, hold or sell its shares. Of course, the desired goal or purpose of any investment is to make money for those who invest in it. So, I think it is worth a look at how these types of investments have performed versus emerging market equities more broadly and versus global equities in developed markets more broadly. You can see in the chart below how the MSCI Islamic Total Return Index has largely mirrored the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index since 2002 with some slight variations, while generally outperforming the MSCI World Index.3 Of course, some countries' equity markets have performed better or worse than others. We would note that Islamic investment indexes in Indonesia, Turkey and Malaysia have seen some periods of volatility but have generally outperformed many other countries in this category since 2002.4

对不熟悉伊斯/兰金融的投资者而言,伊斯/兰金融包括股票和基于信用的投资(又称伊斯/兰债券),二者均须遵守伊斯/兰(伊斯/兰教法)法律。投资目标与其他类型的投资目标相同,即为获取优厚回报和/或产生收益。不同之处在于伊斯/兰投资必须遵守各种教法,包括禁止支付利息(所谓的“利息禁令”)以及若干禁止活动和产品,包括酒、武器、多种食品和食品相关活动。对于分辨投资是否符合伊斯/兰教法是件很复杂的事情,这需要伊斯/兰学者的积极参与,但他们可能总是意见不一致。这对投资者而言增加了一层难度。如果一家公司的主营业务被视为不符合伊斯/兰教法,那么基金经理不能购买、持有或卖出其股份。当然,任何投资的理想目标或目的是为其投资者盈利。因此,我认为有必要了解这些投资类型与更广泛的新兴市场股票以及更广泛的发达市场全球股票之间的表现差异。通过下表,可以看出自二零零二年以来,MSCI伊斯/兰总回报指数的表现与MSCI新兴市场总回报指数的表现大体一致,只略有不同,而表现整体优于MSCI世界指数。[3]当然,一些国家的股票市场表现优于或逊于其他国家。我们注意到自二零零二年以来,印尼、土耳其和马来西亚的伊斯/兰投资指数部分时期出现波动,但整体上优于该类别下的许多其他国家。[4]

If you look at the sector weightings of the MSCI Emerging Markets Islamic Index versus the more general MSCI Emerging Markets Index, you will see significant differences. For example, financials is much smaller in the Islamic Index, while consumer discretionary and energy are much higher for the Islamic index. Country weightings also differ between the indexes.

如果将MSCI新兴市场伊斯/兰指数中的行业比重与更普遍的MSCI新兴市场指数进行比较,将会发现明显差异。例如,金融业在伊斯/兰指数中比重非常小,而非必需消费品和能源行业在伊斯/兰指数中的比重较高。指数间的国家比重也存在差异。

0616_Islamic_sector 0616_Islamic_perf.png 0616_Islamic_perf

Economic Growth in the Muslim World

穆/斯林世界的经济增长

Muslim populations have been growing worldwide, and economies in Muslim countries have similarly been growing. In 1987, Muslim-majority countries represented about 4% of global gross domestic product (GDP); as of December 2015, they represented about 8% of global GDP.5 We believe that percentage will continue to grow. We also have observed that GDP growth has been higher in emerging markets generally (including many Muslim countries) than in developed markets over the past two decades.

全球穆/斯林人口正在不断增多,同样地,穆/斯林国家的经济也正在快速增长。一九八七年,主要穆/斯林国家占全球国内生产总值约4%;截至二零一五年十二月,占全球国内生产总值约8%。[4]我们认为该比例将继续增长。我们同时注意到,过去二十年来新兴市场(包括许多穆/斯林国家)的国内生产总值增速普遍高于发达市场。

Many Westerners associate countries in the Middle East with the Muslim world, but some countries in Africa and Asia also have large Muslim populations and good potential growth trends, Indonesia being the most populous individual Muslim country. In the charts below, you can see the estimated growth and growth forecasts for Muslim-majority countries as well as select emerging markets versus select developed markets.

许多西方投资者将中东国家与穆/斯林世界联系起来,但非洲和亚洲的一些国家也拥有大量穆/斯林人口,且潜在增长趋势向好,其中印尼是穆/斯林人口最多的国家。下表是主要穆/斯林国家的预期增长和增长预测,以及部分新兴市场和部分发达市场的比较。

0616_Islamic_GDP

Malaysia: Islamic Finance Hub

马来西亚:伊斯/兰金融的枢纽

At the GIFF, Malaysia's central bank governor discussed Malaysia's role as a global leader in Islamic finance, which operates alongside conventional financial markets. Malaysia has been a pioneer in Islamic finance, and the central bank's efforts to develop Islamic finance span more than three decades. In 2001, the Securities Commission Malaysia provided a framework for establishing the country as a leader in Islamic finance as part of its first 10-year “Capital Market Master Plan.” In 2006, the Malaysia International Islamic Financial Centre (MIFC) was launched to help further its goal of becoming an international Islamic financial hub—which I think clearly has been achieved!

在全球伊斯/兰金融论坛上,马来西亚央行行长讨论了马来西亚作为伊斯/兰金融的全球领导者的角色,其还运营传统的金融市场。马来西亚是伊斯/兰金融的先驱,而且其央行三十多年来一直致力于发展伊斯/兰金融。二零零一年,马来西亚证监会提出一个将该国建成伊斯/兰金融领导者的框架,作为其第一个十年“资本市场发展蓝图”(Capital Market Master Plan)的一部分。二零零六年,该国成立马来西亚国际伊斯/兰金融中心(MIFC),助其进一步实现成为国际伊斯/兰金融枢纽的目标,我认为该国显然已达成该目标!

Malaysia's equity market has experienced weakness this year, along with its currency, which fell to its lowest level versus the US dollar since the mid–late 1990s, at a time Asia was experiencing financial crisis. We had to ask ourselves: Was it really that bad in the country—was this year's selloff justified? There are many ways to determine currency valuations, but we use purchasing power parity to help determine whether a currency is overvalued or undervalued. This measures inflation in one country versus inflation in the United States. So, for example, if inflation in Malaysia, China or any other country is higher than inflation in the United States, those currencies should naturally decline versus the dollar. Based on this measure, we currently see the currencies of both China and Malaysia, as well as the currencies of Indonesia, Thailand and Saudi Arabia, appearing to be undervalued. We also see equities in emerging markets generally undervalued based on measures such as price/earnings and price/book ratios.

今年马来西亚股市表现低迷,其货币亦然,林吉特兑美元的汇率已跌至二十世纪九十年代中后期亚洲金融危机以来的最低水平。我们不得不自问:这个国家真的有那么糟糕吗?今年的抛售合理吗?确定货币估值的方法有很多,但我们采用购买力平价法来确定货币是否被高估或低估。购买力平价衡量一国通胀与美国通胀的比率。例如,如果马来西亚、中国或任何其他国家的通胀高于美国的通胀,那么这些国家的货币兑美元理论上必然下跌。基于该指标,目前我们发现中国与马来西亚的货币,以及印尼、泰国和沙特阿拉伯的货币似乎被低估。基于市盈率和市净率等指标,新兴市场的股票亦整体上被低估。

0616_Islamic_currency

Looking at some other fundamentals in Malaysia, we know that the country is a net exporter of oil and gas, so lower prices have had a negative impact. Palm oil is also a key export for Malaysia (the world's second-largest producer) and its price has been weak, and that certainly has had at least a psychological market impact. However, the use of palm oil globally is not declining, mainly because of demand from China and India, and we don't expect prices to stay permanently depressed. Additionally, Malaysia has a diverse array of export products, and is actually predominantly a consumption-driven country (representing 60% of GDP), so commodity prices alone cannot explain the dire situation the markets seemed to be reflecting there. Malaysia's economy has a large service sector, which to me is a sign of its maturity. GDP growth since 1996 has averaged about 5%, and while various forecasters call for growth below that level this year, it still appears to be experiencing a solid growth rate. Looking at some other metrics, household debt is at 89% and public or government debt-to-GDP is at 54%.6 While those readings may seem high to some observers (and higher than they were in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis), both readings are actually less than that of the United States. Malaysia's trade surplus is good (which not many countries can boast) and foreign reserves remain at a healthy level. We also believe Malaysia's demographics represent a positive factor going forward, as its young population is entering its most productive years and represents a big consumer market. I think the country has much more potential in many consumer sectors, as well as in tourism.

马来西亚其他基本面方面,我们知道该国是油气净出口国,因此,较低的油价对其造成负面影响。马来西亚是全球第二大棕榈油生产国,棕榈油也是其主要出口产品,而棕榈油价格一直低企无疑至少在心理上对市场造成影响。然而,全球对棕榈油的使用并未减少,主要由于中国和印度的需求并未减少,我们预计其价格不会长时间低迷。此外,马来西亚的出口产品众多,而且其实际上是主要由消费拉动的国家(消费占国内生产总值60%),因此,单看商品价格无法解释该国看起来可怕的市场状况。服务业占马来西亚经济的一大部分,我认为这是一个市场成熟的标志。自一九九六年以来,其国内生产总值平均增长约5%,虽然很多预测者预测今年的增长将低于5%,但其似乎仍维持稳定的增长率。其他指标方面,家庭债务占国内生产总值比率为89%,而且公共或政府债务占国内生产总值的54%。[5] 虽然部分观察者可能认为这些数据很高,甚至高于一九九七年亚洲金融危机期间的水平,但实际上这两个数据均低于美国的水平。马来西亚的贸易顺差稳健(能够拥有的国家不多),而且外汇储备维持在健康的水平。我们也相信马来西亚的人口在未来会成为一个利好因素,因为其年轻人正进入生产率最大的年龄,这也代表着一个庞大的消费者市场。我认为该国的很多消费者行业非常有潜力,旅游业亦然。

If economic fundamentals do not seem to be signaling crisis, it seems that political scandal has been more likely behind the flight of foreign investors from Malaysia. The default of 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) and the related political scandal affected investors' sentiment and confidence. However, foreign investor flows are often short term in nature and temporary. Negative news certainly affects investor confidence but we generally see these periods of market overreactions as opportunities—if we find reasons for a recovery long term. We find a number of sectors to be attractive in Malaysia today, including integrated oil companies involved not only in production but also exploration, refining and marketing, as well as companies involved in the consumer sector.

如果经济基本面看起来不像危机信号,那么政治丑闻似乎更有可能是外国投资者逃离马来西亚的原因。1马发展有限公司(1MDB)违约和相关的政治丑闻影响了投资者的情绪和信心。然而,外国投资者的流动通常属于短期性质,而且是暂时性的。负面新闻确实会影响投资者的信心,但如果我们找到长期复苏的理由,我们基本上会将这段时期过激的市场反应视为机会。我们发现当前马来西亚的很多行业具有吸引力,包括不仅从事生产,亦从事勘探、精炼和营销的综合性石油公司,以及涉足消费者行业的公司。

Our strategy has been to focus on the long term and not get sidetracked with individual news items; that's something we strive to do in any market we invest in. 1MDB is not the entire story of Malaysia's economy—although positive resolution should help foster improved investor sentiment. The proliferation of the Internet and smartphones is accelerating change, including bringing corruption to light in many countries. Exposing corruption and scandals publicly can help bring about positive longer-term changes—hopefully that is the case for Malaysia and 1MDB.

我们的策略一直专注于长期,而且不会因为单个新闻事件而改变方向;这是我们在投资任何市场时所坚守的一点。一马发展有限公司并不是马来西亚经济的全部,尽管积极的解决方案应有利于提振投资者情绪。互联网和智能手机的扩散正在加快社会的变化,包括曝光很多国家的贪污。公开揭露贪污和丑闻有利于带来积极的较长期改变,希望马来西亚和一马发展有限公司的发展遵循此道。

Meanwhile, Malaysia continues its efforts in the area of Islamic finance. I found Datuk Muhammad bin Ibrahim's comments at the GIFF quite interesting in regard to how new technological innovations could take Islamic finance to the next level of development. He spoke of how the digital revolution and widespread penetration of technology-driven applications were already present in nearly every segment of the financial sector, and that so-called “fintech” innovations have been fundamentally altering the way we experience and deliver financial products and services. This is something I have also been talking about for some time. Emerging markets are experiencing a technological leapfrogging in many areas; the adoption of new technologies is moving very fast.

与此同时,马来西亚继续在伊斯/兰金融领域努力。我对慕哈末依布拉欣在全球伊斯/兰金融论坛上关于新科技创新如何推动伊斯/兰金融进入下一个发展阶段的发言很感兴趣。他谈到数字革命和科技应用的普及如何渗透到金融行业的各个方面,以及所谓的“金融技术”创新已从根本上改变我们体验和交付金融产品和服务的方式。有一段时间我也一直在讨论这方面的内容。新兴市场的很多领域正在经历科技的跳跃式发展;各个领域都在极快速地采用新技术。

One example is in the area of mobile banking and electronic payment systems, which are growing worldwide. In Malaysia, the first Islamic Shariah-compliant Internet-based banking platform was launched this year, called the Investment Account Platform (IAP). Formed by six Islamic banks in Malaysia, it utilizes technology to efficiently channel funds from investors to viable economic ventures, promoting risk-sharing and supporting cross-border investments. This is just one example of how new technologies are shaping the Islamic world, and the world of emerging markets.

其中一个例子就是全球范围内不断增长的移动银行和电子支付系统。今年马来西亚推出了首个符合伊斯/兰教法并基于互联网的银行平台,即投资账户平台(IAP)。该平台由马来西亚六家伊斯/兰银行构建,利用科技将投资者的资金有效传输到可行的经济企业,促进风险共担和支持跨境投资。这只是新技术如何改变伊斯/兰世界以及新兴市场世界的一个例子。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

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重要的法律信息

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本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

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有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: Bank of Malaysia Governor Datuk Muhammad bin Ibrahim at the Global International Islamic Finance Forum (GIFF), May 2016. There is no assurance that any estimate, projection or forecast will be realized.

[1] 资料来源:马来西亚国家银行行长慕哈末依布拉欣在全球伊斯/兰金融论坛上的讲话,二零一六年五月。不保证任何估计、推测或预测会实现。

2. Ibid.

[2] 同上。

3. Sources: FactSet, MSCI. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Islamic Index reflects Shariah investment principles and is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-cap segments across 23 EM countries relevant for Islamic investors. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 EM countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed market countries. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[3] 资料来源:FactSet,MSCI。MSCI新兴市场伊斯/兰指数反映伊斯/兰教法投资原则,旨在测量与伊斯/兰投资者相关的23个新兴市场国家的大盘和中盘股表现。MSCI新兴市场指数追踪23个新兴市场国家的大盘和中盘股表现。MSCI世界指数追踪23个发达市场国家的大盘和中盘股表现。指数未经管理,不可直接投资指数。指数不包括费用、开支或认购费。过往表现并非未来表现的指标或保证。请参阅www.franklintempletondatasources.com 获取更多数据信息。

4. Sources: FactSet, MSCI Islamic Indonesia Index, MSCI Islamic Turkey Index, MSCI Islamic Malaysia Index, from June 3, 2002 through May 3, 2016.  Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[4] 资料来源:FactSet,MSCI。MSCI伊斯/兰印度尼西亚指数,MSCI伊斯/兰土耳其指数,MSCI伊斯/兰马来西亚指数,从2002年6月3日到2016年5月3日。指数不包括费用、开支或认购费。过往表现并非未来表现的指标或保证。请参阅www.franklintempletondatasources.com 获取更多数据信息。

5. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, December 2015.

[5] 资料来源:经济学人智库,二零一五年十二月。

6. Source:: Malaysia Finance Ministry, Malaysia Central Bank, 2015.

[6] 资料来源:马来西亚财政部,马来西亚央行,二零一五年。

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