沙特阿拉伯的未来愿景
A Vision for Saudi Arabia's Future
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2019-12-28 09:28
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German

这篇文章也有中文(简体),德文版

Whenever I arrive in a country, I like to read the local press reports to see the issues of the day. In Saudi Arabia, it was clear that one of the biggest issues—if not the biggest issue—in the news was oil prices and their impact on the economy. When oil prices began to decline from their peaks in 2014, Saudi Arabia's financial health began to face great pressure. Rating agencies downgraded the country's debt ratings because of the negative impact of the continued low-oil-price environment on its fiscal and external balances.

每到一个国家,我习惯从当地的新闻报道中读取当天的热点问题。在沙特,新闻中报道的最大问题(如果不是最大问题,也是最大问题之一)显然是油价及其对经济的影响。当油价从二零一四年的高峰开始下滑,沙特的财政健康开始面临巨大压力。由于持续的低油价环境对该国的财政及外部平衡造成负面影响,评级机构下调了该国的债务评级。

In May, I attended the Euromoney Conference in Riyadh, which took place under the patronage of the Ministry of Finance and was supported by the Ministry of Economy and Planning as well as the Capital Markets Authority. Top leaders discussed a series of economic and market reforms that could attract billions of foreign investor dollars to the Kingdom, and I had the pleasure of giving an interview on stage at the conference encouraging reform and expressing optimism for the future of the country's capital markets. The Saudi finance minister reported that the Kingdom had continued to pursue structural reforms even in the face of a challenging global environment and that the financial condition in the Kingdom was very stable. Nevertheless, the country's finances were under pressure due to the collapse in oil prices, prompting deep budget cuts and energy subsidy reforms. The situation certainly warranted attention, and a proposed solution came in four numbers: 2030. This spring, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the “Vision 2030” plan to transform the economy away from oil dependence in the next 14 years.

五月份,我参加了在利雅得举行的欧洲货币会议,会议由财政部主办,并获得经济与计划部及资本市场管理局的支持。最高领导人讨论了一系列能够为沙特吸引数十亿美元外国投资的经济及市场改革,而我有幸在会议中上台接受采访,表达了对改革的鼓励以及对该国资本市场的未来感到乐观。沙特财政部长报告称,即使面对严峻的全球环境,该国一直在持续追求结构性改革,且该国的财政状况非常稳健。然而,该国的财政因油价暴跌而面临压力,促使该国大量削减预算以及进行能源补贴改革。这种情况必然会引起关注,而且一份以四个数字“2030”命名的提案也应运而生。今年春天,沙特副王储穆罕/默德·本·萨勒曼宣布了《2030愿景》计划,旨在使经济在未来14年内摆脱对石油的依赖。

The plan has three themes: “A Vibrant Society,” “A Thriving Economy” and “An Ambitious Nation.” Each area offers an ambitious blueprint to drive Saudi Arabia into the future—one that is more economically diversified. With the unveiling of the Vision, the Deputy Crown Prince announced plans to end its “addiction” to oil in as little as four years' time. This marks a very ambitious attempt which is unprecedented in Saudi Arabia's history. His idea is to rapidly develop the private sector and service industries so Saudi Arabia could “live without oil” by 2030. Both print and social media in Saudi Arabia have drawn attention to past problems, including stalled projects. The new program recognizes these historical issues and includes the establishment of an office for the administration of projects.

该计划有三个主题:“生机勃勃的社会”、“繁荣昌盛的经济”以及“雄心壮志的国家”。每个主题均铺设了一幅雄心勃勃的蓝图,推动沙特走向未来,其中一个蓝图是令经济更加多元化。随着该愿景公之于众,副王储公布多项计划,以尽量在短短四年内结束对石油过于依赖的“油瘾”。这标志着沙特前所未有的一次极具雄心的尝试。他的想法是快速发展私营行业和服务业,从而令沙特能够在2030年之前“摆脱对石油的依赖”。沙特的纸媒及社交媒体引起社会各界对过往问题的关注,包括已被搁置的项目。新项目确认了这些历史遗留问题,并为管理这些项目建立一个办事处。

Goals within Vision 2030 include raising the private sector contribution to the economy from 45% to 60% and cutting unemployment from 12% to 7% within the next 14 years.

《2030愿景》的目标包括在未来14年内将私营行业对经济的贡献从45%增加至60%,并将失业率从12%降低至7%。

Observers have remarked on the personal authority of the 30-year-old son of King Salman bin Abdulaziz and how he has been making very important decisions. But he will likely be running up against resistance from parts of the royal and clerical establishments in what is a fundamentally conservative country. Some wonder if the scope of the transformation envisaged is possible in a country that has become accustomed to the state providing cradle-to-grave services. With half the state budget reserved for public-sector salaries, shifting even part of the wage bill to the private sector would ease fiscal pressure, but these newly created independent businesses might well choose to cut bloated staff levels, creating sources of unrest. In neighboring Kuwait, for instance, oil workers had recently gone on strike to protest modest reforms that they feared would lead to a cut in salaries and benefits. Of course, there was a lot of discussion about Vision 2030 and these sorts of issues at the conference in Saudi Arabia I attended, but there was a great sense of enthusiasm for it.

评论员对国王萨勒曼·本·阿卜杜勒这位30岁儿子的个人权威,及其如何作出极其重要的决策进行了评论。但他有可能会遭到王室部分成员和这个保守思想根深蒂固的国家的宗教势力的阻挠。有人怀疑,在这个习惯了一生由国家提供服务的国家里,所设想的改革蓝图是否有可能实现。该国一半的国家预算用作公共行业工资储备,所以即使只将部分工资额转移到私营行业亦可减轻财政压力,但这些新建的独立企业很可能会选择裁掉过多的员工,从而引起社会动荡。譬如,邻国科威特的石油工人最近用罢/工来抗/议温和的改革,他们担忧这些改革会减少工资和福利。毫无疑问,我在沙特出席的此次会议对《2030愿景》以及这些类型的问题有各种讨论,但是大家都对此抱以极大热情。

Market Reforms = Wider Access

市场改革=放宽市场准入

As global investors, of course market reforms are of keen interest to us, and the Saudi Arabian stock market regulator (the Capital Market Authority) has agreed to change some of the rules for foreign investment as part of its efforts to open the country's capital market under the economic diversification plan. In the past, foreigners were not allowed to make direct investments in the market and had to use Saudi proxies (P-notes) to make investments. Then the door was opened slightly in a QFI (Qualified Foreign Investor) program, which allows a foreign investor to invest as long as he had assets of at least US$1 billion (cut from the original US$5 billion). Also, the prior foreign ownership limit of 5% of the shares outstanding in a single company will be raised to 10%, which should also encourage wider foreign participation.

身为全球投资者,市场改革确实对我们有巨大的吸引力,而且沙特的股市监管者(资本市场管理局)已同意更改针对外国投资的一些规则,致力于在经济多元化计划下开放该国的资本市场。在过去,外国人不可以在市场直接投资,而是要利用沙特代理人(参与凭证)进行投资。随后,市场的大门在合格境外投资者(QFI)计划中开了个小缝,允许至少拥有10亿(最初是50亿)美元资产的外国投资者直接投资。另外,外资占单个公司发行在外股份的上限将从过去的5%上升至10%,这应该也会吸引更多外资参与。

One reform includes changing the trade settlement cycle from T+0 to T+2, which means trades (T) that currently must be settled the same day (0) could be settled in two days. Same-day settlement is next to impossible for foreign investors who need to work through custodial banks that hold the securities on their behalf, so this reform should help encourage wider participation. Another reform involves elimination of cash pre-funding requirements, which again is disadvantageous for foreign investors who can't have money tied up in the country waiting for a trade to take place. A further planned change is the introduction of proper delivery versus payment (DVP). Currently, delivery does not take place simultaneously with payment and vice versa, which is quite risky if one of the parties to the deal fails to deliver.

其中一项改革包括将交易交割周期从T+0变为T+2,即现时必须在同日(0)交割的交易(T)变为可在两日内交割。同日交割对外国投资者而言几乎不可能,其交割须通过代其持有证券的托管银行进行,因此这项改革应该有助于鼓励更多外国投资者参与。另一项改革是消除融资前的现金要求,该要求对没有该国货币以等待进行交易的外国投资者而言,又是一项不利政策。另一项已规划的改革是引入适当的券款对付(DVP)机制。当前,证券交付并不与款项支付同时发生,反之亦然,如果交易的一方不能交付证券,将会带来高风险。

These are certainly positive developments, in our view, and are in line with what has been a gradual market opening. They also set a clearer roadmap to an eventual inclusion in the important MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which in itself will likely be transformative for the index and the emerging-market universe given the large size of the Saudi stock market—one of the world's largest with a market capitalization of more than US$380 billion.1 Liquidity is an important factor, and while average daily liquidity of Saudi shares is already high, if more shares are listed, we think the stock exchange would be even more attractive to foreign investors.

我们认为这些改革确实是正面的发展,而且与逐步开放市场计划一致。该国还为最终加入重要的MSCI新兴市场指数制定更明确的线路,鉴于沙特股市的庞大规模(全球最大的市场之一,市值超过3,800亿美元[1]),该指数本身和新兴市场将有可能发生变化。流动性是一个重要的因素,而且沙特股票的每日平均流动性已很高,如果上市股票增加,我们认为证券交易所会吸引更多外国投资者。

Thus, there was considerable excitement upon the announcement of the possible sale of shares in a state oil producer, one of the world's largest oil companies, as part of the broader economic transformation outlined in Vision 2030. While Prince Mohammed has stated there would likely to be less than 5% of the company sold (as early as 2017), the listings, which would be in multiple markets including the Tadawul exchange, could be the world's largest publicly traded firm and also could generate a short-term cash windfall in excess of Saudi Arabia's projected 2016 budget deficit of US$87 billion.2

因此,在宣布一家国有石油生产公司有可能会出售股权后,市场的情绪相当激动,这是全球最大的石油公司之一,此举是《2030愿景》中提出的整体经济转型的一部分。虽然穆罕/默德王子已声明该公司出售的股权有可能会低于5%(最早在二零一七年),但该公司上市(将在多个市场上市,包括Tadawul证券交易所)将可能令其成为全球最大的上市公司,同时还能产生超过沙特二零一六年预算赤字(870亿美元)[2] 预测的短期现金收入。

This has spurred hope of other privatizations, since Prince Mohammed said the government was “in the process of determining additional sectors” that are suitable, including state-run hospitals that would be placed in a holding company and “put forward for an initial public offering (IPO)” as part of a plan to transform the health ministry from a health care provider to a regulator by spinning off its hospital operating assets. The state-owned flour mill and grain storage company has also been identified as a possible IPO candidate.

该案例有望刺激其他私有化,因为穆罕/默德王子表示,政府正在“确定适合私有化的其他行业”,包括一家控股公司的国营医院,并“提出首次公开发行(IPO)”,这是通过分拆卫生部的医院运营资产,将其从医疗保健供应商转型为监管者的计划的一部分。国有面粉厂和粮食储藏公司也被确定为IPO的可能候选者。

Some Saudi officials have expressed reservations about privatizing state assets in a low-oil-price era when valuations are likely to be well below what they would have been when oil topped US$100 a barrel. Others fear privatization could encourage crony capitalism, with state-owned champions sold off on the cheap to large investors. Prince Mohammed has quashed such concerns, saying that the IPOs would help distribute wealth and that state companies had over the past decade been listed with cheap valuations to allow Saudis to buy shares, which may rise after the listing. In this way, the listings aren't limited to only the wealthiest citizens—more people can take part in them.

沙特部分官员对在低油价时期(资产的估值有可能远低于油价高于每桶100美元时的估值)国有资产私有化表达了保留意见。其他官员担忧私有化会刺激权贵资本主义,以及国有领头企业会低价出售给大型投资者。穆罕/默德王子已消除了这些忧虑,其表示IPO将有利于财富分配,而且其中有在过去十年间以较低估值上市的部分国企,沙特人可以购买这些上市后可能会升值的股票。在这方面,上市股票的购买不仅限于财富值最高的公民,而是允许更多人参与其中。

Of course, there are some problems in the Saudi economy that the Vision alone may not be able to solve. For example, the Minister of Labor had to get involved after people who were working on the King Abdulaziz Airport expansion project in Jeddah were facing problems getting paid. Workers burned a number of company buses in protest over nonpayment of wages. In an effort to control the fiscal deficit, government ministries have been ordered to cut at least 5% of spending, and delays in payments to firms have created cash-flow problems for the companies as well as worker disturbances, in a country where demonstrations are not allowed. The issue of foreign workers is an important one as well, since foreign workers in Saudi Arabia are estimated to represent between 20% to 30% of the entire population, with Indians and Pakistanis the largest foreign groups. However, part of the Vision is a “Green Card” system, which aims to address issues with expatriate workers—so the government is certainly aware of these problems and trying to solve at least some of them.

当然,沙特的经济存在一些单靠《愿景》无法解决的问题。例如,在参与吉达King Abdulaziz机场扩张项目的员工面临欠薪问题时,劳动部长不得不出面解决。在针对拖欠工资的抗/议中,工人烧毁了大量的公司大巴。为了控制财政赤字,政府部门已被要求至少降低5%的开支,而且延迟向公司付款已导致公司出现现金流问题以及工人骚乱(该国不允许游/行)。外籍工人的问题也是重要的问题之一,沙特的外籍工人估计占总人口的20%到30%之间,其中印度和巴基斯坦工人所占比例最大。然而,《愿景》的一部分包括“绿卡”制度,该制度旨在处理与外籍工人有关的问题,因此,政府无疑是意识到了这些问题,并尝试至少解决其中的一部分问题。

Another article I read outlined another problem: the myriad lawsuits and litigation between property owners and their tenants. The headline read: “Ninety percent of leases illegal,” which seemed shocking to me. The government plans to establish an electronic system which will track all property leases in order to identify rent defaulters and have a unified single contract and electronic payment system. This is only part of a reform initiative to make dramatic changes in land ownership, particularly in the major cities where large tracts of land were left idle while there was an on-going housing shortage. Wealthy businessmen and the many members of the royal families hold land and haven't developed it since there hasn't been  a penalty for keeping it undeveloped. But, now there are plans to introduce a property tax to encourage development of the vacant land, which hopefully would result in more housing for more of the population.

我阅读的另一篇文章指出了另一个问题:房主和租客之间的各种公诉和诉讼。标题为“百分之九十的租赁不合法”的新闻让我感到很震惊。政府计划建立一个电子系统来追踪所有的房屋租赁,以识别租赁违约者,并形成统一的合同和电子支付系统。这仅是使土地所有权(尤其是大片土地被闲置,同时住房又持续不足的主要城市)发生巨大变革的改革计划的一部分。由于持有而不开发土地并不会受到惩罚,富商和很多王室成员持有土地而且不进行开发。然而,政府目前计划推出一项房地产税鼓励开发闲置土地,从而有望为更多人提供更多住房。

Change does seem to be coming in Saudi Arabia, a country with some interesting paradoxes. For example, at the conference I attended, I noticed there were a number of Saudi women who did not have their head covered and wore Western-style dress, but the biggest surprise to me as a Westerner came when I visited the mall attached to the hotel where I was staying; it had a lingerie shop for women with a sales staff comprised only of men. Gradually though, it does appear more women's rights are being granted. In 2011, King Abdullah announced that Saudi women would gain the right to vote and to be candidates in municipal elections, provided that a male guardian granted permission, and by 2015, women were finally allowed to vote.

存在一些特有矛盾的沙特似乎不会立刻迎来改变。例如,我在出席会议的时候发现很多没有蒙面而且穿着西式服装的沙特女性,但对我这个西方人来说最惊讶的是,我在参观入住的酒店附近的商场时,发现一间女士内衣店里的销售员全部是男性。虽然过程是循序渐进,但似乎确实是在授予女性更多的权利。阿卜杜拉国王在二零一一年宣布,沙特的女性将获得投票权,并将可成为市政府选举的候选人,但须男性监护人授权许可,直至二零一五年,女性才最终获得投票的权利。

Coming from the airport in Riyadh I saw a huge tract of land with many impressive buildings which I learned was a new university for women. Despite moves toward some educational reforms, strict religious tradition remains a dominant part of daily life in Saudi Arabia, particularly in the education system. The issue of extremism also cannot be denied, but of course this subject is a very complex one and requires more study and understanding.

从利雅得机场出来,我看到一大片土地上矗立着很多令人侧目的建筑,经了解,那是一所新建的女性大学。虽然教育改革方面实施了一些措施,但严格的宗教传统仍在沙特的日常生活中占据主导地位,尤其是在教育系统中。我们无法否认极端主义问题的存在,但毫无疑问这是非常复杂的问题,需要更深入研究和理解。

The next time I get to Saudi Arabia I hope I have the opportunity to get out of the capital city and visit more of the other areas, not only to learn more about how people in different walks of life live, but also to learn about sectors and industries outside of energy. Of interest to me personally are the mineral resources, particularly gemstones. Saudi Arabia has volcanoes that apparently have thrown up peridots, my birthstone.

下一次来到沙特时,我希望能有机会走出首都,去参观其他更多地方,不仅要了解更多关于各行各业人们的生活,还要了解能源以外的行业和工业。我个人感兴趣的是矿产资源,尤其是宝石矿石。沙特拥有明显是喷发过橄榄石(我的诞生石)的火山。

It's our view that Saudi Arabia holds many interesting opportunities for investors, and if its expansive vision proves successful, it could cause economic growth to expand in many different directions—with or without high-flying oil prices.

沙特对投资者而言充满了极佳的机会,而且如果其宏伟的愿景成功实现,无论油价是否高飞,都将会为其经济带来很多不同方面的扩张。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动

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1. Source: Saudi Stock Exchange performance report, first quarter 2016.

[1] 资料来源:沙特证券交易所业绩报告,二零一六年第一季度。

2. Source: Bloomberg, as of December 2015. There is no assurance any estimate or forecast will be realized.

[2] 资料来源:彭博资讯,截至二零一五年十二月。不保证任何估计或预测会实现。

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