波兰的正面趋势和政治挑战
Positive Trends, Political Challenges in Poland
3150字
2019-12-27 15:18
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), Dutch, French, Polish

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、荷兰语、法语和波兰语版

My first visit to Poland was in 1991, just as the country was emerging from its Communist era. In those days, Warsaw was a dreary city with empty store windows and shops with nothing much to sell. Located in the heart of the city, its tallest building was (and still is) the 231-meter tall “Palace of Culture and Science in the name of Joseph Stalin,” a gift from the Soviet Union (Stalin’s name was later removed). Many say the striking building—patterned after similar buildings in Moscow with gothic towers topped with elaborately decorated spires and huge statues—resembles a wedding cake. Warsaw today is a lively, modern city with many skyscrapers dotting the skyline and many amenities for residents and visitors, including a number of familiar hotel chains, coffee shops, restaurants and retail stores.

我在一九九一年首次游历波兰,当时正是该国摆脱共产党执政后崛起的阶段。在那些日子里,华沙这座城市毫无生机可言,店铺橱窗空无一物,商店可卖的东西屈指可数。城市中心坐落着最高(至今仍是)的建筑物——“以约瑟夫·斯大林之名的科学文化宫”,高达231米,是前苏联赠送的,斯大林的名字后来被移除。许多人说这座让人叹为观止的建筑物采用哥特式塔楼是仿照莫斯科的类似建筑,配上精心装饰的尖塔和大型雕像,像极了一个婚宴蛋糕。如今的华沙是一座生机勃勃的现代化城市,摩天大楼林立在地平线上,而且有许多为居民和游客提供便利的设施,包括很多我们熟知的连锁酒店、咖啡店、餐馆和零售商店。

Poland's Palace of Culture and Science

Poland’s Palace of Culture and Science

波兰科学文化宫

Poland has been one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies in recent years; gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 3.6% in 2015 and is expected to rise a similar amount in 2016.1 Poland’s labor market has been improving and wages have been rising, spurring household spending. The unemployment rate has fallen to lows not seen since 2008, and the government has introduced subsidies for families with children, which could offer more impetus to consumer spending. The emphasis on childcare and education is evident everywhere. In one shopping mall I visited during my recent travels to Poland, I noticed there was an educational/play area for children on each floor; one had giant puzzle pieces that children could figure out how to fit together, while another had a display of prehistoric life with models of dinosaurs the children could play with.

近年来,波兰已成为欧洲发展最快的经济体之一;二零一五年其国内生产总值增长3.6%,预计二零一六年的升幅相似。1波兰的就业市场持续改善,工资水平不断提高,从而刺激家庭支出。失业率创下自二零零八年以来的新低,而且政府为有孩子的家庭提供补助,这可进一步刺激消费者开支。这从到处都强调儿童照看和教育即可见一斑。在最近的波兰之旅所参观的一间购物中心里,我注意到每层楼均设有儿童科普/玩乐的区域;其中一层楼提供了不完整的大幅拼图,孩子们可以思考如何将其拼凑完整,而另一层楼则展出着史前生物(恐龙模型),可供儿童玩乐。

Cycling along the outskirts of Warsaw

Cycling along the outskirts of Warsaw

在华沙郊区骑行

While the global markets reflected shock after the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union (EU) in June, I think there could be a silver lining for Poland and other emerging markets in Europe from the Brexit decision. New trade barriers could cause some companies based in the United Kingdom—particularly in the area of manufacturing—to move to countries which are still part of the EU and may offer more favorable agreements and lower-cost labor, such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. For Polish people living and working in the United Kingdom, the future is a bit uncertain amid anti-immigration rhetoric from those supporting the United Kingdom’s “Leave” campaign. It has been estimated that these workers send roughly US$1 billion (€0.9 billion) back to Poland each year.2

尽管全球市场在英国民众六月投票脱欧后表现出震惊,但我认为英国脱欧的决定对于波兰和欧洲其他新兴市场而言可能是一丝希望。新的贸易壁垒可能令部分总部设在英国的公司——尤其是制造业的公司——搬至仍为欧盟成员国并可提供更为有利的贸易协议和较低廉的劳动力成本的国家,例如波兰、匈牙利和捷克。对于在英国居住和工作的波兰人而言,因“脱欧”阵营支持者的反移民言论,他们的未来有些许不确定。据估算,这些工作者每年向波兰寄回约10亿美元(9亿欧元)。2

The Rise of Polish Nationalism

波兰民族主义的兴起

A potential Brexit outcome that worries me generally speaking is a possible retrenchment in global trade and reform efforts worldwide. Poland’s political environment has become clouded with the rise of the ruling nationalist Law and Justice Party headed by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Kaczynski is the twin brother of Poland’s previous president, who died in 2010 in a plane crash when landing in Smolensk, Russia. Poland’s people are very proud and protective of their independence and identity, and nationalism has intensified under the Law and Justice Party’s rule. This rise in nationalism is not unique to Poland—the Brexit outcome being a very visible sign of its spread. A rise in nationalistic sentiment can come with a troublesome retrenchment in global trade, and an isolationist stance on the part of politicians can result in avoidance of reforms that bring more growth-oriented policies and privatization efforts. This is of concern to us.

一般来说,英国脱欧可能导致的一个令我担忧的结果是全球贸易和在全球范围内所作的改革努力将付诸东流。随着雅罗斯瓦夫·卡钦斯基领导的民族主义政党——法律与公正党重新掌权,波兰政治局势蒙上一层阴影。卡钦斯基是波兰前总统的孪生哥哥,后者于二零一零年在俄罗斯斯摩棱斯克降落的飞机失事中丧生。波兰人民对自己的独立性和身份感到极为自豪并备加爱护,而民族主义已在法律与公正党的统治下愈演愈烈。民族主义的兴起不是波兰的专利——英国脱欧的结果就是这种浪潮扩散的明显迹象。民族主义情绪升温可能带来全球贸易下降的棘手问题,而政客们表现出的孤立主义立场可能会导致更多促增长政策和私有化努力的改革遭到延迟。这令我们感到担忧。

A Selfie in Sopot, Poland

A Selfie in Sopot, Poland

在波兰索波特自拍

A Polish newspaper poll I read found 55% of respondents believed Kaczynski actually ran the country, even though he doesn’t hold an official government office. He is depicted as promoting skepticism and deep mistrust of Poland’s neighbors and former occupiers. The new government has also been accused of taking control of public media, the intelligence services and its highest court. Kaczynski‘s strident nationalism could stem from the history that shaped his youth. At the end of World War II, 85% of the buildings in Warsaw had been destroyed, and Kaczynski grew up learning about the horrors of Moscow’s suppression and imposition of communism. He and his brother worked with Lech Walesa, the Solidarity trade union chief who helped bring down the Communist party in Poland. The death of his twin brother still seems to weigh heavily on Kaczynski, as he reportedly visits his brother’s grave every Saturday as well as at other times to mark key events.

我读过的一份波兰报纸上的民意调查显示,55%的受访者认为卡钦斯基实际上统治着波兰,尽管他并无正式担任政府职位。据说他是一个提倡怀疑主义的人,而且极度不信任波兰的邻国和之前的占领者。新政府亦被指控操控大众媒体、情报部门和其最高法院。卡钦斯基强烈的民族主义可能源自于他青年时代所处的历史环境。第二次世界大战结束时,华沙85%的建筑物被毁,而卡钦斯基在其成长阶段感受到了前苏联的压迫和被迫实施共产主义的恐怖。他和他的弟弟为莱赫·瓦文萨工作过,而瓦文萨是团结工会领导人,推动了波兰共产党的瓦解。孪生弟弟的离世似乎仍然重重地压在卡钦斯基心头,据报道他每逢周六和其他重大事件发生之时便会到弟弟的坟前祭拜。

Evidence of Poland’s increasing nationalistic stance can be found in the government’s suspension of privatization efforts involving companies in the banking, insurance and energy sectors considered to be strategically important. We would argue privatization efforts had been a key component to the Polish economy’s previous success. The government also revised public procurement rules to favor local companies, something that would likely concern other EU-member countries. In an effort to protect Poland’s important coal mining sector, the government also loosened the energy policy regarding carbon emission levels.

政府暂停被认为具有重要战略意义的银行业、保险业和能源行业公司所涉及的私有化努力,证明了波兰日趋明显的民族主义立场。我们认为私有化努力是波兰之前经济成功的关键。政府也修订了公共采购制度,这对本土公司有利,但可能会引起其他欧盟成员国的担忧。为努力保护具有重要意义的煤矿开采行业,波兰政府也放松了与碳排放水平有关的能源政策。

Poland’s new government has proposed measures to bolster government finances by introducing a new tax on bank assets as well as a loan conversion program for Swiss-franc-denominated loans that will force banks to convert these loans into Polish zloty. With more than 500,000 Polish households estimated to be holding such loans, the conversion program, together with the new bank levy, is likely to be costly for the banking industry. Years ago, many banks offered clients mortgages in Swiss francs, which were attractive to home buyers because of the very low interest rates. At that time, we thought this was a mistake and warned that such a practice for clients whose earnings were only in Polish zloty would be dangerous if the exchange rate changed. Sure enough, the zloty devalued against the Swiss franc and many homeowners were in trouble. Unable to make payments, many people lost their homes. It thus became popular for the government to favor the mortgage-holding public and hit the banks with measures to take the risk.

波兰的新政府提议采取措施,通过引入针对银行资产的新税项和针对以瑞士法郎计值贷款的贷款转换计划(此计划将强制银行将这些贷款转换为波兰兹罗提),以增强政府财政状况。据估计,波兰现有超过50万个家庭持有有关贷款,因此,转换计划加上新的银行征税可能会导致银行业付出高昂开支。多年以前,多家银行向客户提供以瑞士法郎计值的房屋贷款,由于利息极低,这对于房屋购买者而言吸引力十足。那时候,我们认为这是失策之举,并警告,对于收入仅以波兰兹罗提计值的客户而言,如果汇率发生变动,那么这种做法将会是危险的。果不其然,兹罗提兑瑞士法郎下跌,而很多房屋拥有者则陷入困境。由于无法还款,很多人痛失家园。从那以后,政府时常关照持有房屋贷款的民众,并采取措施促使银行承担风险。

Additionally, Poland unveiled a sweeping pension-reform plan aimed at dismantling the privately owned pension fund system and transferring the bulk of assets to individual retirement accounts, a portion of which will be managed by a state entity. The European Commission put Poland on watch over the plan, stressing member-state pension systems should be “adequate, safe and sustainable.” There is concern that some long-term pension assets could be used to finance certain government agendas.

此外,波兰推出全面的退休金改革计划,旨在废除私营退休基金制度并转移大量资产至个人退休账户,部分结余将由一个国家实体管理。欧洲委员会密切关注波兰的改革计划,并强调成员国的退休金制度应是“合适、安全和可持续”的。让人感到担忧的是,部分长期退休金资产可能会被用于为政府若干议程提供资金。

Strength of the zloty is certainly a concern to us as investors in Poland, and another big overarching issue is the refugee crisis in Europe. Although Poland’s previous government had agreed to accept 7,000 refugees under the EU’s refugee redistribution quota, the new government has been strongly critical of this move—rather ironic as many Poles working in the United Kingdom are now worried they may be forced to come home.

兹罗提的走强肯定会引起像我们这样身在波兰的投资者的担忧,而另一个亟待解决的难题是欧洲的难民危机。尽管波兰上届政府已经同意欧盟的难民重新分配计划,接收7,000名难民,但新政府对此行为感到强烈不满——较为讽刺的是,在英国工作的很多波兰人如今正担心他们可能会被遣送回国。

Sopot, Poland

Sopot, Poland

波兰索波特

Recently, the European Commission has expressed concern about some practices in Poland, including what it cited as a lack of respect for the “rule of law” as well as new media laws that give the government authority to appoint and dismiss key television and radio directors at publicly financed media outlets, which could limit freedom of expression. Since Poland joined the EU in 2004, the country has benefited from billions of euros in grants and loans to improve the infrastructure. So, ties to the EU remain important for Poland. Recently, the EU has been allocating funds to support innovation in Poland and boost competitiveness. In 2015, the European Commission adopted the 2014–2020 Operational Programme “Smart Growth” of Poland, worth €8.6 billion of investments to improve economic growth.3 It emphasizes strengthening research and development activity and enhancing small- and medium-enterprise companies to develop new ideas and competitive advantages. As if to allay EU concerns, the new government vowed to remain committed to adhering to the EU’s fiscal rules (maintaining fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP and debt below 60% of GDP).

近来欧盟委员会已对波兰的部分做法表示忧虑,包括某些行为缺乏对“法治”的尊重以及新颁布的媒体法,其中新媒体法允许政府任免公共媒体机构的主要电视和电台领导,这将限制言论自由。自二零零四年加入欧盟以来,波兰已经受益于数十亿欧元的补助和贷款,用以改善基础设施。因此,与欧盟的关系对波兰而言仍很重要。近期,欧盟已经拨款支持波兰的创新和增强其竞争力。二零一五年,欧盟委员会采纳波兰“智慧型增长”执行计划(2014-2020),将投资86亿欧元促进经济增长。3该计划强调加强研发活动,促进中小型企业开发新理念和提高竞争优势。似乎是为了缓解欧盟的忧虑,新政府承诺仍会致力于遵守欧盟的财政规则,即维持财政赤字占国内生产总值的比重低于3%,以及债务占国内生产总值的比重低于60%。

The political environment has caused some concerns among rating agencies. In January 2016, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded the country’s debt, and in May of 2016, Moody’s Investors Service shifted Poland’s sovereign rating outlook to Negative from Stable, while keeping the long-term rating at A2. On July 15, Fitch agency affirmed Poland’s credit rating at A-, an unchanged level. In its press release justifying the decision, Fitch Ratings highlighted the solid macro fundamentals of the Polish economy reflected in strong GDP figures.4 The agency forecasts GDP growth at the level of 3.2%-3.3% in the years 2016-2018, which it says should be supported mainly by private consumption.5

波兰的政治环境已经引起评级机构的一些担忧。二零一六年一月,标准普尔下调该国的债务评级,二零一六年五月,穆迪投资者服务将波兰的主/权评级展望由稳定下调为负面,但仍维持A2的长期评级。七月十五日,评级机构惠誉确认维持波兰的信用评级于A-不变。惠誉在新闻稿中重点指出,波兰国内生产总值数据强劲显示经济的宏观基本面稳健。4惠誉预测,二零一六至二零一八年波兰的国内生产总值增长将维持在3.2%至3.3%水平,其认为这将主要受私人消费所支持。5

Bottom-Up Investment Opportunities in Poland

波兰自下而上的投资机会

While the political environment presents broad challenges, as bottom-up investors it’s our job to find individual companies able to survive and thrive in any given environment. We had the opportunity to visit a number of companies in Poland this spring, and we noticed five interesting trends in the economy that gave us room for optimism as investors:

尽管整体政治环境面临各种困难,但作为自下而上的投资者,我们的任务是找到能够在任何既定环境下生存和发展的公司。今年春天,我们有机会参观波兰的多家公司,并发现以下五种具吸引力的经济趋势,从而让身为投资者的我们保持乐观:

  1. The rapid growth of the consumer market
  2. Substantial improvements in infrastructure, with better roads encouraging more car and truck transport
  3. An increasing emphasis on technology and investment to improve quality
  4. Tighter bank credit as a result of government policies regarding the banks
  5. The growing internationalization of Polish business with many companies expanding into the rest of Europe and even beyond
  • 消费市场快速增长
  • 基建明显改善,其中道路的改善将增加汽车和卡车运输的使用量
  • 日益重视通过科技和投资来提高质量
  • 有关银行的政府政策导致银行信贷收紧
  • 波兰企业越来越国际化,很多公司的业务已扩张至欧洲其他国家,甚至是欧洲以外的国家

For one of our first company visits in Poland, we met with managers of a car rental company specializing in auto-fleet management. The business touches on the aforementioned themes of both the rapid growth of the consumer market as well as infrastructure. The managers there told us that only about 10% of companies in Poland with 500 or more employees use car fleet-management services, while in Western Europe the figure is close to 50%. Many of the individuals who had leased their cars wound up purchasing them. So, the potential for growth in this area looked good.

我们在波兰参观的第一家公司是一家专注于汽车车队管理的汽车租赁公司,接待我们是其经理。他们谈到上述消费市场的快速增长和基建两个主题。这些经理告诉我们,在波兰,拥有500名或以上雇员的公司中,仅有约10%的公司使用汽车车队管理服务,而在西欧这一比例接近50%。许多租用他们公司汽车的人最后都将所租汽车购买下来。因此,该领域的增长前景看起来十分理想。

We also visited one of the largest oil refiners in the region. The State Treasury has a large stake in the company, but its shares are listed on Poland’s stock exchange and held by a variety of local and foreign investors. The company is a good example of successful privatization of a state enterprise that has gone beyond its own border and has taken advantage of the opportunities in the EU.

我们也参观了该地区一家最大的炼油厂。虽然波兰财政部在该公司拥有大量股权,但该公司股份在波兰证券交易所上市,由多个当地和外国投资者持有。该公司是国有企业私有化的成功案例,其不仅走出国门,还利用欧盟的机会发展自身。

Another company we visited had an innovative technology for infrared detectors which can be applied in multiple sectors (army, railways, automotive, air quality detection, medicine). The company had a strategy to reduce the average price per detector and significantly increase volumes and the accessibility and popularity of the technology in new industries. One interesting application was to check the temperature of machine parts to detect faulty elements in any machine (a faulty part would have higher temperatures). Another application is in medicine, to detect inflammatory states in human tissue that can be cancer markers.

我们参观的另一家公司拥有一项红外探测器创新技术,这项技术可以用于军事、铁路、汽车、空气质量检测和医疗等多个行业。该公司实施一项策略以降低每个探测器的平均价格,极大地增加了销售量,提高了该技术在新行业的应用和普及。一个有趣的应用是检查机器部件的温度以发现任何机器的损坏部件(缺损部件的温度更高)。另一个应用用于医疗,检查人体组织的炎症状况指标,从而可能尽早发现癌症。

We also visited a small but innovative bank that was interested in acquiring other banks in order to extract cost and revenue synergies. As an example of the impact of EU integration, the bank was launched in 2008 by an Italy-based conglomerate. Officials cited their big challenge has been the new banking tax, a third of which will have to be directly absorbed by the bank, as Poland’s government strongly stated that it would not allow banks to pass on banking tax costs entirely to customers.

我们也参观了一家小型创新银行,该银行正在考虑收购其他银行,以取得成本和收益协同效应。该银行是欧盟一体化影响的例子,其于二零零八年由一家意大利集团公司成立。由于波兰政府强烈表明,其将不允许银行将银行税项成本完全转嫁予消费者,因此管理层称他们的最大挑战是新银行税项,其中三分之一将必须直接由银行提供。

A restaurant operator we visited was expanding into other countries in Eastern Europe as well as to Spain and even China. The management said that they saw strong growth potential given the government’s populist measures to put money in the hands of households.

我们参观了一家饭店运营商,该公司正在不断将业务拓展至东欧其他国家以及西班牙,甚至是中国。管理层表示,由于政府实施平民主义措施将钱交到居民手中,未来的增长潜力强劲。

Also in the consumer space, we visited a major furniture manufacturer in Poland. The Polish furniture industry has a strong tradition; Poland is the third-largest furniture-producing country in Europe and fourth-largest in the world in export sales, with furniture exports representing about 2% of Poland’s GDP.6The niche of the company we visited was ready-to-assemble furniture. As we toured the company’s factory and warehouse, we were impressed with its modern facilities and advanced equipment. Interestingly, one of their major customers is a South African group we were quite familiar with.

同样是消费领域,我们参观了波兰一家主要的家具制造厂。波兰的家具行业有着深厚的传统;波兰是欧洲第三大家具制造国,家具的出口销售名列世界第四,其中家具出口占波兰国内生产总值的约2%。6我们所参观公司的产品是待组装的家具。当我们参观该公司的工厂和车间时,现代化的设备和先进的设施令我们印象深刻。有趣的是,他们的一名主要客户是我们熟知的一家南非集团。

The company pointed to EU pollution regulations as a consideration for their business. More European customers are seeking furniture without harmful substances, and the company aimed to meet that demand with new particle board produced without formaldehyde. We asked about Chinese competition in the furniture industry but the company officials told us ordering from Chinese manufacturers usually took about three months for delivery, and they could deliver in about half that time. Additionally, they told us Chinese producers were not as price competitive as they had been in the past.

该公司指出欧盟的污染条例是他们业务的一项考虑因素。越来越多的欧洲消费者寻求不含有害物质的家具,该公司致力于广泛采用不产生甲醛的新型碎料板,以满足该要求。我们问到在家具行业与中国竞争的情况,但公司高层告诉我们,中国制造商通常从接单到交付花费约三个月,而他们只需要约一半的时间。此外,他们告诉我们中国制造商的价格优势不如以往。

The Polish people love celebrations, and traditionally beer and vodka have been the mainstays of such events. We visited a producer of vodka and other spirits, including bitters, brandy and rum. Citing limited growth prospects in Poland and the Czech Republic, the managers told us they are looking to make acquisitions in other areas of Europe and around the world, another example of how Polish companies are spreading their wings internationally.

波兰人喜爱庆祝,啤酒和伏特加历来是庆祝活动必不可少之物。我们参观了伏特加和其他烈酒(包括比特酒、白兰地和朗姆酒)的制造厂。由于波兰和捷克的增长前景有限,经理告诉我们其将在欧洲其他地区和全球范围内进行收购,这是波兰公司走向国际化的又一案例。

We hope that Poland’s leadership recognizes the need for continued reform and that its nationalistic sentiment does not come at the expense of growth, global trade and innovation. We think Poland is at an exciting period of its history with many challenges but also with more opportunities for investors. We look forward to exploring more potential opportunities in the country.

我们希望波兰领导人能够意识到持续改革的必要性,以及民族主义情绪并非以经济增长、全球贸易和创新为代价。我们认为,波兰正处于有史以来最振奋人心的时期,虽然存在许多挑战,但对投资者而言,也存在着更多机会。我们希望能够挖掘该国更多的潜在机会。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2016. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

1. 资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》数据库,二零一六年四月。不保证任何估计、推测或预测会实现。

2. Source: Central Bank of Poland; data on remittances as of 2013.

资料来源:波兰央行;汇款数据截至二零一三年。

3. Source: “EU will invest €8.6 billion of regional funds in Poland to boost innovation,” European Commission press release, February 2015.

3. 资料来源:“欧盟将向波兰投资86亿欧元区域资金以促进创新,”欧盟委员会新闻稿,二零一五年二月。

4. Source: Fitch Ratings press release, July 15, 2016.

资料来源:惠誉评级机构新闻稿,二零一六年七月十五日。

5. There is no assurance that any projection, estimate or forecast will be realized.

5. 不保证任何估计、推测或预测会实现。

6. Source: Eurostat, 2015 data.

6. 资料来源:欧盟统计局,二零一五年数据。

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