新兴市场回弹
The Resilience of Emerging-Market
1894字
2019-12-26 18:08
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This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified)

这篇文章也有中文 (简体) 版

While prospects at the start of 2016 seemed rather dour for emerging markets, resilience has been the story in the asset class for the first half of the year. What's behind the improvement in emerging-market equities? Here are some general themes I will briefly touch on:

虽然新兴市场在二零一六年初的前景看起来黯然,但该资产类别在今年上半年一直处于反弹走势。新兴市场股票回升由哪些因素推动?以下是我将简要提到的一些常见主题:

  • Growth in emerging markets continues to outpace that of developed markets
  • Improved investor sentiment and attractive valuations have helped drive asset flows
  • China's market/economy hasn't imploded as many had feared at the start of the year
  • Political, economic and structural changes have been taking place in many markets
  • 新兴市场的增长继续超过发达市场
  • 投资者情绪好转和具吸引力的估值促进资产流通
  • 中国市场/经济并未发生很多人在年初担忧的崩溃
  • 很多市场正在经历政治、经济和结构性变化

Year-to-date, emerging-market equities have outperformed developed markets in US dollar terms, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 14.5%, while the MSCI World Index is up 2.7%.1 Growth rates in emerging markets also continue to outpace those of developed markets; the International Monetary Fund estimates gross domestic product growth of 1.8% in 2016 and 2017 for advanced economies, and growth of 4.1% and 4.6%, respectively, in emerging/developing economies.2 In August, Moody's ratings agency revised its outlook on the world's largest emerging-market economies upward for 2016 and 2017, with the expectation that these economies have stabilized.3

年初至今,新兴市场股票跑赢发达市场(以美元计值),其中MSCI新兴市场指数上升14.5%,而MSCI世界指数则上升2.7%。[1]新兴市场的增长率亦继续超过发达市场;国际货币基金组织预测,二零一六年和二零一七年发达经济体的国内生产总值增长1.8%,新兴/发展中经济体则分别增长4.1%和4.6%。[2]八月份,穆迪的评级机构向上修订了其对全球最大新兴市场经济体在二零一六年和二零一七年的展望,预期该等经济体已企稳。[3]

While the year is not yet over, we see brighter prospects for investors in emerging markets compared with last year, and the long-term performance of emerging-market equities compares favorably to that of developed markets.

虽然今年尚未结束,但对投资者而言,新兴市场的前景比去年明朗,而且新兴市场股票的长期表现也比发达市场出色。

0916_emperf_v2

The asset class received strong inflows this summer as investors continued to search for higher yields, helping to drive outperformance.4 A rebound in commodity prices this year led by oil has further shifted investor sentiment in favor of emerging-market equities. At the same time, many emerging-market countries have moved to lessen their dependence on commodities as drivers of growth and have diversified their economies into other areas, including information technology and other service-based sectors.

由于投资者继续寻找较高收益,该资产类别于今年夏天有大量资金流入,助力其出色表现。[1]今年由石油引领的商品价格反弹进一步提振了投资者对新兴市场股票的情绪。与此同时,很多新兴市场国家已逐渐减轻对由商品推动增长的依赖,并向其他领域发展多元化经济,包括信息技术和其他以服务为主的行业。

The US dollar has stabilized, and this has largely benefited emerging markets as it reduces the threat of a US dollar-denominated debt; many companies in emerging markets have issued debt in US dollars, making it harder to repay when their economies are weak at the same time the US dollar is very strong. In addition, given challenges surrounding the global economy, including the United Kingdom's referendum vote to leave the European Union, several major central banks have taken a dovish stance on interest rates, which we think bodes positively for emerging markets' growth and assets. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has been very cautious in terms of tightening this year. We think emerging markets should be able to weather small and gradual increases in US interest rates, which seems to be the path Fed policymakers have indicated.

美元已企稳,这在很大程度上让新兴市场受益,因为以美元计值的债券的威胁已减少;新兴市场很多公司发行以美元计值的债务,当其所在经济体疲软同时美元又极其强劲时,这些公司将更难以偿还其债务。另外,全球经济还充斥着种种挑战,包括英国脱欧公投、几大主要央行采取鸽派的利率立场,我们认为后者继续有利于新兴市场的增长和资产。与此同时,今年美联储在紧缩政策方面一直表现得十分谨慎。我们认为新兴市场应能够经受住美国小幅缓慢地加息,这也是美联储决策者暗示过的步伐。

In addition, many emerging-market countries are making meaningful progress on structural reforms to stimulate growth and their respective share markets. For example, India recently passed a national bankruptcy law, and a goods-and-services tax (GST) bill, and has relaxed foreign direct investment rules to further stimulate economic growth.

另外,很多新兴市场国家在实施结构性改革以刺激增长及其各自股市方面正在取得实质性进展。例如,近期印度通过了一项国家破产法案和一项商品及服务税法案,同时放宽外国直接投资的条例以进一步刺激经济增长。

Perhaps the biggest catalyst of investor sentiment has been China. In 2015, events in China were a driver of a substantial sell-off that affected all emerging markets. The devaluation of China's currency had prompted alarm bells among global investors on fears the weaker currency could ignite competitive currency volatility and potentially destabilize the economies of China's neighbors. Weak economic data from China had added to the uncertain market mood, causing the Shanghai Composite Index to decline approximately 40% from its peak in mid-June of 2015. While China's market has recovered a bit since then, undoubtedly, the Chinese economy still has many ailments, including an oversupply of housing, excess capacity in many industries, a slowing manufacturing sector and considerable debt issues. However, there are also many strengths fostered by China's economic rebalancing, including growth in consumption driven by rising wages, an expanding services sector and new infrastructure initiatives launched by the central government.

也许中国是投资者情绪的最大催化剂。二零一五年,中国事件导致市场出现大量抛售,影响所有的新兴市场。中国货币贬值在全球投资者中敲响警钟,担忧较疲软的货币会点燃竞争性货币波动,同时有可能动摇中国邻国的经济。中国经济数据疲软,加剧不明朗的市场情绪,导致上证综合指数从二零一五年六月中旬的高位下跌将近40%。虽然自那以后中国市场稍有回升,但毫无疑问,中国经济还存在很多问题,包括住房供应过剩、很多行业产能过剩、制造业增长放缓和相当严重的债务问题。然而,中国经济再平衡也催生很多利好,包括工资上升推动消费增长、服务业扩张,以及中央政府推出的新基建项目。

0918_china_services

So perhaps more importantly, signs of stability in China's economy have been a key factor in boosting overall sentiment in emerging markets this year. Recently, Chinese authorities have taken a step forward in opening up domestic equity markets with the long-awaited approval of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect, which allows trading between mainland domestic shares (A shares) and the market in Hong Kong (H shares). Heavier southbound flows are to be expected as domestic Chinese investors are likely to try to reap the benefits of enhanced H-share liquidity and cheaper H-share valuations versus those of the domestic A-shares market. In our view, the fundamentals in China still look very good. The country remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the world despite a decelerated growth rate from decades past, and we remain confident in the government's efforts to effect a broad economic rebalancing away from an export-driven model and toward one that is more domestic-oriented.

因此,也许更重要的是,中国经济企稳的信号是今年提振整体新兴市场情绪的一个关键因素。近来,中国当局已在开放国内股市方面迈进一步,其已批准市场翘首以盼的深港通计划,投资者将可买卖中国内地股票(A股)和香港市场股票(H股)。由于中国内地投资者可能会尝试从已增强的H股流动性和H股相对于内地A股较便宜的估值中获益,南下资金预计会较大。我们认为,中国的基本面看起来仍十分健康。该国依然是全球增长最快的经济体之一,即使其增长速度比过去几十年缓慢,而且我们仍相信政府能够实现整体经济再平衡,其将由出口推动模式转向更多以内需拉动的经济体。

Elsewhere, Latin American equities have seen positive performances overall this year. Sentiment improved amid sweeping political changes and reform efforts in Brazil, culminating with the formal impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff in August. Peru's market has also benefited from business-friendly Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's victory in the recent presidential election. In Argentina, a new government eliminated most capital controls and reached a deal with creditors.

其他方面,今年拉丁美洲的股票录得正面表现。巴西清除政治变动並实施改革期间市场情绪好转,在八月份正式弹劾前总统罗塞夫时达到顶峰。支持商业发展的佩德罗·巴勃罗·库琴斯基在近期的总统选举中获胜亦让秘鲁市场受益。阿根廷方面,新政府消除大部分资本管制并与债权人达成协议。

These are just a few factors behind the resilience we have seen in emerging markets this year. We also see many positive long-term trends continuing, including favorable demographics and a rise in purchasing power and consumption in many of emerging economies—and the story is far from over. As such, we believe the long-term investment case for emerging markets remains positive. In our view, economic growth rates in emerging-market countries are likely to continue to outpace those of many developed-market economies, due to the reasons discussed. While emerging markets remain sensitive to macroeconomic indicators and global monetary policy—which means volatility is likely to persist for some time—equity markets appear to have begun to readjust. We see signs confidence is returning to emerging markets and believe it is likely to continue.

以上只是今年新兴市场回弹背后的几个因素。我们还发现新兴市场的很多正面长期趋势维持不变,包括有利的人口结构和很多新兴经济体的购买力和消费上升,而且其势头远未结束。因此,我们相信新兴市场的长期投资前景维持正面。鉴于我们所讨论的原因,我们认为新兴市场国家的经济增长率可能会继续超过很多发达市场经济体。新兴市场仍对宏观经济指标和全球货币政策敏感,虽然这意味着波动有可能会持续一段时间,但股市似乎已开始重新调整。我们已看到新兴市场恢复信心的迹象,并相信这有可能会持续下去。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: MSCI, year-to-date through September 9, 2016. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 emerging market (EM) countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed market (DM) countries. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance. See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[1] 资料来源:MSCI,年初至二零一六年九月九日。MSCI新兴市场指数追踪23个新兴市场国家中具代表性的大中型股。MSCI世界指数追踪23个发达国家中具代表性的大中型股。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。指数不反映费用、开支或认购费。过往表现并非将来结果的指示或保证。其他数据供应商资料请浏览www.franklintempletondatasources.com

2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2016. There is no assurance that any estimate, projection or forecast will be realized.

[2] 资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》更新,二零一六年七月。不保证任何推测、估计或预测会实现。

3. Source: Moody's Investors Service announcement, August 17, 2016.

[3] 资料来源:穆迪的投资者服务公告,二零一六年八月十七日。

4. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance.

[4] 过往表现并非将来结果的指示或保证。

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