中国取得的进展及好转的情绪
Progress and Improving Sentiment in China
2101字
2019-12-26 17:53
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火星译客

At the start of the year, sentiment in China's equity market was poor at best, but the worst fears of many investors about its economy haven't materialized. I've invited my colleague Eddie Chow, senior executive vice president and managing director, Templeton Emerging Markets Group, to provide an update on China's market and economy as it stands today. He outlines what has changed over the past few months, and the risks and opportunities we see in China—including a key stock-trading connection that could lure more foreign investors to the mainland market.

年初,中国股市的情绪极其低迷,但很多投资者最担忧的经济情况并没有发生。我邀请我的同事,邓普顿新兴市场团队高级执行副总裁兼董事总经理Eddie Chow来分享对中国市场及经济现状的最新观点。Eddie Chow概述了中国过去几个月的变化,以及我们在该国发现的风险和机遇,包括能够为内地市场吸引更多外国投资者的一个重要的股票交易通道。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified)

这篇文章也有中文(简体)版

China's market, as represented by the MSCI China Index, has recovered from its lows in mid-late February and is now positive year-to-date through September 20.1 The recovery in Chinese equities is more obvious in the overseas market, mainly stocks listed in Hong Kong (H shares) and those listed in the United States as American Depository Receipts (ADRs). The domestic A-share market in China—local Chinese companies denominated in renminbi and traded primarily between local investors on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges—remain relatively weak.

由MSCI中国指数代表的中国市场已从其二月中下旬的低位反弹,而且年初至九月二十日的回报已为正数。[1]中国股票的复苏在海外市场表现得更为明显,主要包括在香港上市的股票(H股),以及在美国上市的美国存托凭证。中国内地A股市场(以人民币计值的中国本土公司,并主要由当地投资者在上海或深圳证券交易所交易)仍相对疲软。

At the beginning of the year, there were fears that as the US interest-rate cycle started to turn upward, capital outflows would lead China's currency to depreciate significantly and would further tighten the liquidity of its already-fragile credit system. Many investors were also uneasy about the government's inconsistency in its various economic policies, such as hard commitments on achieving 6.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth, not allowing the currency to depreciate, and structural adjustments like capacity closure/deleveraging.

年初,市场担忧随着美国利率周期开始转为上升,资本流出会导致人民币大幅贬值,还会进一步收紧其已较脆弱的信贷系统的流动性。很多投资者亦担忧政府在各种经济政策方面的矛盾,例如坚定承诺实现6.5%的国内生产总值增长、不允许货币贬值,以及去产能/去杠杠化等结构性调整。

Over the past few months, market sentiment has improved for a few reasons. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been less inclined to raise interest rates so far this year than had been feared, and the Chinese government has effectively slowed capital outflow and introduced more pragmatic economic policies. It is no longer as staunchly committed to reaching its target of 6.5% GDP growth, it has allowed its currency to embark on a mild weakening trend and has taken more concrete actions to cut capacity in the steel and mining industry. China's macroeconomic numbers remain weak in general, but there are signs in the August reports that China's growth slowdown has begun to stabilize. Fears of a credit blow-up have also subsided as the government introduced nonperforming loan (NPL)-backed asset-backed securities (ABS) for banks to dispose of NPLs, and at the same time, tightened up regulations on banks' activities in wealth management products.

在过去几个月,市场情绪因一些原因而有所好转。年初至今美联储加息的倾向已弱于市场的担忧,中国政府亦有效减缓资本流出以及出台更切实的经济政策。该国不再坚守6.5%的国内生产总值增长目标,其已允许人民币开始小幅度缓慢地贬值,并采取更具体的措施削减钢铁和矿业行业的产能。中国的宏观经济数据整体上仍疲软,但八月份的报告显示中国的增长放缓情况已开始企稳。由于政府引进不良贷款资产支持证券供银行处置不良贷款,同时收紧对银行理财产品活动的监管,市场对信贷爆炸的担忧亦有减轻。

The A-share markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen are dominated by retail investors, and I believe many lost confidence last year when the market sharply declined. It takes time for sentiment to recover. Hong Kong's market is dominated by institutional investors, and in the sell-off at the beginning of this year, the market was overpenalized with valuations reaching levels much lower than those of the Shanghai and Shenzhen domestic markets. As fears subsided, the recovery was therefore stronger in Hong Kong's market. Liquidity is also much better in the market for H shares, and as some developed economies turned to negative interest-rate policies, liquidity stayed relatively tight in the A-share market, driven by capital outflows.

中国上海和深圳的A股市场由散户投资者占主导地位,我相信很多投资者在去年市场暴跌时丧失信心。市场需要时间来恢复信心。香港市场则由机构投资者占主导,在年初的抛售浪潮中,该市场受到过度冲击,其估值触及远低于上海和深圳内地市场的估值水平。因此,随着恐慌平息,香港市场的反弹更为强劲。H股在市场中拥有的流动性亦更高,而且由于部分发达国家转向负利率政策,资本外流导致A股市场的流动性维持相对紧缩。

Banking Vulnerability

银行业的脆弱

Some reports this year have stated that China's banking system is vulnerable and at risk due to a reliance on interbank lending. In my view, the level of risk from lending-borrowing activities between large banks and smaller banks in China is not very high. As in many other markets, big banks enjoy scale advantage and would generally be stronger in their deposit franchise. It is generally more cost-effective for smaller banks to borrow from big banks in the interbank market. This would be unlikely to develop into a systemic risk if everyone follows the regulatory requirements and truly reflects the risks of their activities on their balance sheets. From my perspective, the real issue is that some mid-size and small banks may be hiding their loans to high-risk customers through swap arrangements with other banks. Such arrangements are shown on their balance sheets as lower-risk financial assets held under repurchase or resale agreements with other banks. The purpose is to make those high-risk loans consume less capital so the banks can do more business (or in other words, assume more risks) without the need to put up more capital. That situation can become a systemic risk. In the event of a wide-scale default among those high-risk customers, we would expect some degree of a credit crunch in the banking system, and other healthy borrowers would also likely be affected.

今年的一些报告称,由于依赖银行间同业拆借,中国的银行体系较为脆弱且存在风险。我认为,中国大小银行之间的借贷活动产生的风险水平并不十分高。在很多其他市场也一样,大银行享有规模优势,而且通常在存款业务方面实力会更加雄厚。小银行在银行间市场向大银行借款一般更具成本效益。如果每一个参与者均遵守监管要求,并在其资产负债表上真实反映其活动的风险,上述情况不太可能会发展成为系统性风险。我个人认为,真正的问题在于,一些中小银行可能会通过与其他银行签订互换协议来掩盖其发放予高风险客户的贷款。在其资产负债表中,这些互换协议被列为根据与其他银行签订的回购或转售协议持有的风险较低的金融资产。目的是为了让那些高风险贷款消耗较少资本,以便银行无需筹集更多资本即可进行更多业务(或换言之,承担更高的风险)。这种情况会演变为系统性风险。如果那些高风险客户出现大规模违约,预计银行体系会出现某种程度的信贷紧缩,同时其他良性借款人也有可能会受到影响。

A New Stock Connection

新的股票互通计划

The recent approval of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect program facilitates foreign and domestic trading between China's local market and Hong Kong—and to us, this means China's A-share market is further opened up. As they have with Shanghai-listed shares, foreign investors will be able buy Shenzhen-listed stocks directly. This greatly expands the number of stocks available to foreign investors and there are also more private companies in Shenzhen than in Shanghai, which we view as positive. For China's domestic A-share market, higher participation from foreign investors, especially institutional investors, is a positive development as it may potentially provide greater breadth in the near term and, longer term, can help drive the push for better corporate governance, a better regulatory framework and stricter enforcement.

最近批准的深港通计划促进中国本地市场和香港市场之间的外国和内地交易,我们认为,这意味着中国A股市场的进一步开放。与上海上市的股票一样,外国投资者将可直接购买深圳上市的股票。这极大地扩大了外国投资者可购买的股票数量,而且深圳的私营企业比上海多,我们认为这是利好。对中国内地A股市场而言,外国投资者(尤其是机构投资者) 的参与度上升是一个正面的发展,因为这在短期和较长期内有可能会带来更大的发展空间,有助于推动更完善的企业管治、更好的监管框架和更严格的执行力度。

Monetary Policy Action—or Inaction

货币政策措施—或不作为

The Chinese government has refrained from introducing stronger monetary measures at this stage, acknowledging that monetary policy is not the most effective tool to support the economy. Economists have pointed out that the contribution of credit to GDP growth has been rapidly declining. Much of the credits created are taken up by inefficient state-owned-enterprises in the legacy, old-economy industrial sector. In addition, the government would like to control an already-high debt situation. There are certainly some sectors that may benefit from government's focus on boosting certain infrastructure projects. For example, the government has planned to have more city rail systems. From an investment standpoint, this would be good news for some of the rail-system manufacturers.

在当前阶段,中国政府克制不实施更强力的货币措施,其已意识到货币政策并非支持经济的最有效工具。经济学家指出,信贷对国内生产总值增长的贡献急剧减少。很多现有的信贷由老旧经济行业中的低效能国有企业占据。另外,政府有可能会控制已高企的债务水平。政府致力于推进特定的基建项目确实令部分行业受益。例如,政府已计划建造更多城市铁路系统。从投资角度来看,这对部分铁路系统制造商而言会是好消息。

Meanwhile the US Fed seems to be on a tightening course, as opposed to many other central banks that are still in easing mode. In general, a rise in US interest rates would be negative for China's market because when the interest-rate gap widens between the countries, money will likely flow out of China and drain the liquidity or money supply in the system, which is detrimental to economic growth. However, I believe with the current US tightening cycle, the market won't react with as much volatility as perhaps it did in the past, as the market has factored in a US interest-rate hike, and in the past few months, many Chinese companies were able to close their foreign debt exposure. Also, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan continuing to maintain negative interest-rate policies, I believe investment flows to emerging markets should be able to remain positive.

与此同时,美联储似乎已开始实施紧缩措施,这与依然处于宽松模式的很多其他央行截然不同。整体而言,美国加息会对中国市场不利,因为两国之间的息差会扩宽,资金有可能会流出中国以及抽尽系统中的流动性或资金供给,这不利于经济增长。然而,就当前的美国紧缩周期而言,该市场的反应也许不会是和过去那样大幅波动,因为市场已消化美国加息预期,而且在过去几个月,很多中国公司已能够平仓其外国债务持仓。另外,由于欧洲央行和日本央行继续维持负利率政策,我相信流向新兴市场的投资资金应能够维持正面。

Investment Themes: Technology and Consumer Products

投资主题:科技和消费性产品

In terms of potential investment opportunities we're looking at in China, we are focused on the Internet and technology sector as we found that many companies can enjoy strong structural growth as the economy shifts toward more online transactions, shopping and services. We also like select consumer-oriented companies, especially in the automobile sector and in sportswear. We look for opportunities in select industries (for example, packaging paper) that have gone through a consolidation, industries where barriers to entry have increased and where the competitive environment has become more benign.

就我们在中国寻找的潜在投资机会而言,我们专注于互联网和科技行业,因为我们发现,随着经济转向更多的网上交易、购物和服务,很多公司可从中实现强劲的结构性增长。我们也倾向于选择消费性公司,尤其是汽车行业和运动服装领域的公司。我们在经过整合的精选行业(例如包装纸)中寻找机会,这些行业的进入壁垒已提高,而且竞争环境已变得更加良性。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: The MSCI China Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across China H shares, B shares, Red chips and P chips. With 149 constituents, the index covers about 84% of this China equity universe. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not reflect any fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance.

[1] MSCI中国指数追踪中国H股、B股、红筹股和民企股中具代表性的大中型股票。该指数包含149只成分股,覆盖上述中国股票范围的约84%。指数未经管理,不能直接投资指数。指数不反映任何费用、开支或认购费。过往表现并非将来结果的指示或保证。

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