婆罗洲的投资风险、机会和奇遇
Risks, Opportunities and Adventures in Borneo
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2019-12-25 10:17
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This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German, Italian

这篇文章也有中文(简体)、德文、意大利文版

Recently my colleagues and I traveled to Sarawak, Malaysia, on the island of Borneo. Shared with Indonesia and Brunei, Borneo is a huge island encompassing more than 740,000 square kilometers. Like the rest of Borneo, the state of Sarawak has an incredible amount of natural mineral and wood resources along with rainforests containing a wide variety of wildlife, including the Bornean orangutans and many other flora and fauna species. Sarawak's human population is also quite diverse, with more than 20 ethnic groups represented.

最近,我和我的同事前往婆罗洲岛上属于马来西亚的砂拉越旅游。婆罗洲也分属印尼和文莱,是一个面积达740,000平方公里的大岛。砂拉越州与婆罗洲其他地区一样,蕴藏丰富的天然矿物质和木材资源,雨林密布,其中野生动植物种类繁多,包括婆罗洲猩猩和许多其他动植物种类。砂拉越的人口也极为多元化,拥有超过20个的族群。

Sarawak is unique insofar as the Malaysian Constitution has provisions that protect Sarawak's semi-independence; the local government has been granted power to regulate entry and residence, employment in public services, etc. Some political observers have said that when general elections are held in Malaysia, Sarawak is often the swing state that decides the results.

马来西亚宪法设有条文保障砂拉越的半独立性,因此砂拉越是一个独特的州属;当地政府获授权规管出入境和居住、公共服务就业等方面的事宜。部分政治观察员表示,砂拉越经常是马达西亚大选时决定结果的摇摆州。

My colleagues and I arrived in Bintulu, a small town northeast of Kuching, Sarawak's capital. It is located in the coastal region of the central coast of Sarawak, which in recent times has seen a boom in industrial activity. I decided to go for a swim before dinner, but someone warned me that a crocodile was spotted living off the coast near the hotel where we were staying. Always aware of the risk-reward of any situation, I decided not to go for a nighttime swim since crocodiles are known for their good nocturnal vision, and I didn't want to risk becoming a meal! However, the next morning, I surveyed the situation and decided to take the swim, happy to see no crocodile in sight. On a prior visit to Borneo, I made the trek up the island's tallest mountain, Mount Kinabalu, located at the other state of Malaysia within the island, Sabah. It was quite an experience! Climbing before dawn—and in pouring rain— our group struggled to climb the slippery vines and rocks to reach the top (which is over 4,000 meters above sea level) just in time to witness the sunrise. In this case, I was glad it was dark while we were climbing, because if I were able to see the rock face we had climbed in broad daylight, I would never have attempted it!

我和我的同事到达砂拉越首府古晋东北部的一个小镇—民都鲁。民都鲁坐落于砂拉越中央海岸的沿海地区,近年来工业活动繁荣。我决定在晚饭前去游泳,然而有人警告我,说曾看到一条鳄鱼在我们下榻的旅馆附近的海岸出没。我在任何情况下一向都习惯趋利避害,而鳄鱼素以出色的夜间视力闻名,于是我放弃了夜游的决定,因为我实在不想冒成为鳄鱼腹中餐的风险! 然而,翌日清晨,我考察了情形后决定下水游泳,庆幸的是,我没遇到鳄鱼。在上一次游历婆罗洲时,我曾长途跋涉,登上矗立于岛内分属马来西亚沙巴州的“东南亚第一高峰”—京那巴鲁山(Mount Kinabalu)。那真是一次令人难忘的经历! 拂晓之际,我们一行人冒着倾盘大雨,跨越湿滑的藤蔓和岩石,历经千辛万苦,终于登上了海拔4,000多米的山顶,那时刚好亲眼目睹了太阳冉冉升起。在这次旅程中,我们是在黑夜中攀爬的,对此我感到庆幸,因为假如当时是在白天,我能够看清我们所攀爬的岩壁的话,那么我是断然不会做此尝试的!

Borneo is the world's third-largest island, and its equatorial rainforest is home to many species of plants and animals, which attracts tourists from around the world. Borneo also boasts significant power resources, including hydroelectric power, coal and natural gas deposits; liquefied natural gas is a key export.

婆罗洲是世界第三大岛屿,岛内的赤道雨林生长着多种多样的动植物,吸引了世界各地的游客前来观光。婆罗洲也以丰富的发电资源闻名于世,包括水力、煤炭和天然气矿床;液化天然气是主要的出口资源。

My colleagues and I came to Bintulu to visit the Samalaju Industrial Park, part of the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy (SCORE) program. The program was established in 2008 to leverage the abundant hydro and other energy resources in the state to support industries that require a lot of energy, such as aluminum, glass and steel production. Currently there are three dam projects generating power. The Bakun Dam, completed in 2011, is the largest rock-fill dam in Southeast Asia, designed to generate some 2,400 megawatts (MW) of electricity.

我和我的同事前往民都鲁参观砂玛拉朱工业园(Samalaju Industrial Park),此工业园是砂拉越再生能源走廊(SCORE)计划的一部分。此计划于二零零八年建立,目的在于充分利用州内丰富的水力和其他能源资源,为需要大量能源的工业提供支持,例如铝、玻璃和不锈钢生产等。目前此计划已完成三个发电大坝项目。巴贡大坝(Bakun Dam)于二零一一年竣工,是东南亚最大的堆石坝,计划发电约2,400兆瓦。

The Bakun Dam project was not without controversy about the potential environmental and social consequences. Some 700 square kilometers of land (about the size of Singapore) was flooded, drowning native settlements and rainforests that, according to some environmentalists, contain species of plants and animals not found anywhere else in the world. Another hydroelectric project, the Murum dam, started in 2014, also resulted in submerging thousands of hectares of forests and displacing indigenous people. The Baram Dam project is meeting resistance from local indigenous tribes, but nonetheless, more dam projects are planned and receiving government approvals.

巴贡大坝项目对环境和社会产生的潜在影响存在争议。约700平方公里的土地(约同新加坡国土面积)遭到淹没,多个当地居民区和雨林就此消失,而据部分环保工作者所说,其中还殃及世界其他地方并未发现的多个动植物物种。另一水力发电项目穆伦大坝(Murum dam)于二零一四年启动,也导致成千上万公顷的树林遭淹没,原住民被迫迁离。巴南大坝(Baram Dam)项目遭到当地原住民部落的阻挠,尽管如此,仍有更多的大坝项目正在计划中并不断获得政府批准。

The first investors in the Samalaju Industrial Park included a Japanese firm producing polycrystalline silicon, which is used in integrated circuits and solar cells. The production of silicon requires an enormous amount of electric power, so the cheap electricity was a big draw for the firm, which involved a total investment of about US$1 billion and is expected to eventually employ 900 people.

砂玛拉朱工业园的首批投资者包括一间生产多晶硅(用于集成电路和太阳能电池中)的日本公司。硅胶生产需要大量的电力,因此低廉的电力对该公司而言,具有较大的吸引力,而该公司已合计投资约10亿美元,预期其最终将聘用900名员工。

At the industrial park, we visited an aluminum smelter with a production capacity of 640,000 tons annually using 1,000 MW of electric energy to smelt raw bauxite imported from Australia. The plant was an enormous structure, stretching over one kilometer in length. The plant manager said that while electricity usually represents the highest cost in producing aluminum, this location was favorable in that costs were among the lowest in the world. He was optimistic about aluminum's future prospects, expecting demand from transport, construction, electrical, packaging and consumer durables companies.

在工业园内,我们参观了一间炼铝厂,该厂每年的产能为640,000吨,而熔炼由澳大利亚进口的生矾土所用电力达1,000兆瓦。工厂厂房规模庞大,厂区延绵一公里以上。工厂负责人表示,电力通常是炼铝中成本最高的部分,而此处的电价是全球最低电价之一,因此将厂房建于此处非常有利。他对铝业的未来前景感到乐观,预期运输、建筑、供电、包装和耐用消费品公司将持续对铝有需求。

sarawak_malaysia_plant3

Despite efforts by conservationists to protect the rainforest, deforestation and the burning of forests to clear land for palm oil plantations is an issue. Not only are the forests dwindling, but there is a haze of smoke that reaches into Singapore and Peninsular Malaysia for about a month each year when the burning takes place. Protecting and preserving the environment while fostering growth and progress is certainly a difficult balancing act.

尽管环保主义者努力保护雨林,但为了开垦棕榈油种植园的土地,砍伐森林、焚烧森林问题仍存在。这样不仅造成森林面积逐渐减少,而且每年焚烧森林时,会产生大量的烟雾,并持续达一个月之久。这些烟雾甚至都飘散到了新加坡和马来西亚半岛。要在保护和爱护环境与促进增长和发展之间取得平衡确实不是一件易事。

It certainly seems infrastructure is a priority for Malaysia as a whole, as the government's recently unveiled Budget 2017 allocates funds for railway, bridge and road projects. Construction remains a fast-growing industry in Malaysia, so I wondered about plans for the Malaysian part of Borneo as well.

总体而言,基础设施建设似乎是马来西亚的重中之重,政府近期公布的二零一七年预算案将资金拨派给铁路、桥梁和道路项目等。建造行业仍是马来西亚增长最快的行业,因此我也对马来西亚关于婆罗洲部分的计划颇感兴趣。

Since Kuching is the capital of Sarawak, we thought it made sense for us to get some insights into what was planned for the state going forward. A new chief minister has just taken over and we had heard that he had plans to accelerate development. At the cavernous lobby of a downtown hotel, we met the planning official, who was on his way to the airport. He told us the government was interested in getting the private sector more involved in development by giving companies contracts to build and operate various infrastructure projects. I asked if he planned to have the private sector build toll roads so it could get repaid for construction costs by using money generated from tolls. The official answered that it might be too politically sensitive to charge the population to use the roads, but the government could compensate the concessionaires. He speculated on the idea of making Sarawak a financial center and attracting investment and banking firms.

由于古晋是砂拉越的首府,因此更深入地了解这个州的未来规划对我们来说很有意义。新的首席部长刚刚上任,我们了解到他曾计划加速发展。在市区酒店的洞穴状大厅,我们见到了这位规划官员,他正要去往机场。他告诉我们政府有意让私营部门更多地参与到开发项目中,比如授予一些公司合约让他们建造和运营各种基建项目。我问到他是否计划让私营部门建造收费公路,以便他们能够利用从收费站得到的资金,偿还建造成本。这位官员回答道,如果向使用公路的公众收费,可能太具政治敏感性了,但是政府会补偿这些特许经营者。他曾考虑让砂拉越成为一个金融中心,吸引更多投资和银行。

Certainly, Sarawak's tropical climate and easy-living style would be attractive to many, although Malaysia had already designated the island of Labuan for that purpose, though this has not been wildly successful. In any case, the attractions for foreigners to the area are many.

毫无疑问,砂拉越的热带气候和简单的生活方式对很多人来说具有吸引力,尽管马来西亚已经在重点发展纳闽岛,但目前尚未取得重大成功。无论如何,砂拉越对外国投资者还是有许多吸引力的。

There certainly was the feeling that the government sees itself as somewhat paternalistic, which is understandable given the area's colorful history. In 1841, in gratitude for his crushing a rebellion, British soldier James Brooke was named governor with the title of Rajah. Apparently, Brooke ran a rather benevolent and orderly government and was responsible for the construction of a number of public works such as a sanitation system in the city, hospital, fort and a bazaar. He was called the “White Rajah,” and his descendants continued to rule after his death. During their rule, Sarawak had its own currency, stamps and in 1850 was even recognized by the United States as an independent state. The Brookes adopted a form of paternalism with councils, including the various tribes and ethnic groups such as the Ibans, Dayaks and others advising the Rajah, marking the oldest legislative assembly in Malaysia. World War II resulted in the Japanese occupying the area, and in 1946 with the Japanese surrender it became a British Crown Colony. Then in 1963, it was granted self-government and became part of the Malaysian Federation.

我们能够明显感觉到砂拉越政府的管理有些许家长式作风,要是了解该地区丰富的历史后也就不难理解了。一八四一年,为表彰英国士兵詹姆士・布洛克(James Brooke)镇压叛乱有功,文莱苏丹封他为总督,尊称“拉惹(Rajah)”。显然,布洛克的统治更加仁慈、有序,他负责多个公共工程的建造,如城市、医院、堡垒和集市的卫生系统等。他被称为“白人拉惹”,他的继承者在他死后继续统治。在他们统治时期,砂拉越拥有了自己的货币、邮票,甚至在一八五零年被美国认可为独立国家。布洛克统治时期采用了家长式的统治方式,设有委员会(包括伊班人、达雅克人和其他种族等多个部落和族群)向拉惹提供意见,标志着马来西亚最古老的立法议会的确立。第二次世界大战日本占领了该地区,一九四六年日本投降,砂拉越成为英国殖民地。随后在一九六三年获得独立,成为马来西亚联邦的一部分。

During my free time, I had the opportunity to visit the Sarawak Museum in Kuching. Charles Brooke, the nephew of James, began construction of the museum in 1891, and it contains an extensive collection of ethnic artifacts and nature exhibits. At the downtown waterfront, we saw a small ship repair dock with a plaque quoting a book written by Charles Brooke's wife, Margaret, called “My Life in Sarawak.” She describes the inauguration of the dock and the hilarious celebration when her husband tried to make a congratulatory speech. Much to their amusement, the speech became inaudible when the workers became rambunctious and started jumping into the water.

空闲之余,我有机会参观了古晋的砂拉越博物馆。詹姆士的侄子查尔斯・布洛克(Charles Brooke)在一八九一年开始建造这座博物馆。该馆藏有大量的民族手工制品和自然展品。在市中心的滨水区,我们看到一个小型的修船坞的匾额上,引用了查尔斯・布洛克的妻子玛格烈(Margaret)所著的“我在砂拉越的生活”(My Life in Sarawak)一书。她描述了船坞的开幕仪式,以及在她的丈夫努力发表祝贺演说时喧闹的庆祝活动。让他们感到好笑的是,当工人们兴奋起来,开始跳入水中时,喧嚣之声淹没了演讲声。

Flickr/Patrick Liu

When we visited the downtown port area, we saw elegant and beautiful government buildings. Kuching apparently loves cats; in a little park in the downtown port area there were large statues of cats, as well as a cat museum. It housed an extensive collection of cat paraphernalia, including all kinds of paintings, pictures, sculptures, toys and anything else related to cats. Some people say that since the word “kuching” means “cat” in Malay, the city was given that name. Legend has it that when James Brooke arrived and was disembarking from his ship, he pointed to something on the dock and a boy thought he was pointing to a cat lying there. Everyone thought he wanted his new domain to be named “Kuching.” So while many visitors flock to see Borneo's vast array of wildlife, there's also something for lovers of more domesticated creatures to see.

参观市中心的港口区域时,我们看到了高雅优美的政府建筑。古晋显然是太爱猫了;在市中心港口区域的一个小公园内,矗立着各种大型的猫雕塑,同时还有猫博物馆。馆中存有大量与猫相关的物品,包括各式各样的绘画、图片、雕塑、玩具和任何其他与猫相关的物品。有人说因为“古晋”一词在马来语中有“猫”的意思,故此该城市以此得名。据说是詹姆士・布洛克坐船到达后,他从船上下来并指着码头上的一个东西,一个男孩以为他指的是躺在那儿的一只猫。所有人都以为他想要将这片新领域命名为“古晋”。虽然很多游客去往婆罗洲为了参观大量的野生动物,但对于喜爱驯养动物的人来说,古晋也是不错的选择。

Leaving Kuching and Sarawak on my way back to Kuala Lumpur, I reflected on the great strides being made by that state and its potential for continued rapid development. In future years, I think there are bound to be good investment opportunities there. 

当我离开古晋和砂拉越返回吉隆坡时,我回想着这个州所取得的巨大进步和其可持续快速发展的潜力。我认为在未来的几年里,那里一定会有很好的投资机会。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

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Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

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The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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