聚焦基本面改善
Focusing on Fundamental Improvement
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2019-12-24 08:50
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I'm fortunate to be able to work with an outstanding team at Templeton Emerging Markets Group, which includes individuals with diverse backgrounds and areas of expertise. My colleague Carlos Hardenberg is a key member of our team and brings a wealth of experience as a research analyst, portfolio manager and world traveler who has lived in several different countries. I thought I'd invite Carlos to share his perspective on the opportunities and challenges he sees in emerging markets today and as we head into 2017.

在邓普顿新兴市场团队,我有幸能够与一支优秀的团队共事,他们有不同的背景和各自擅长的领域。Carlos Hardenberg是我们团队的核心成员,作为研究分析师、基金经理以及在多个国家居住过的全球旅行家,Carlos 为我们带来了丰富的经验。我邀请了Carlos分享他对于新兴市场现在和2017年所面临的机遇和挑战的看法。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、法文、德文版

A cloud of skepticism still appears to be hanging over emerging markets, but we think it's now time to focus on fundamental economic realities. Short-term market volatility aside, over the last couple of months we've seen significant improvements across the majority of metrics that we measure in emerging markets, including sentiment.

新兴市场似乎仍充斥着大量的怀疑论,但我们认为此刻应该聚焦经济基本面。撇开短期市场波动,过去两个月以来,我们用以衡量新兴市场的多数指标已显著提高,包括市场情绪。

In a number of emerging-market countries in both Latin America and Asia, we see economic activity that is still far below potential, but there have been signs on both the manufacturing and consumer sides that sentiment is improving. This is especially true in countries in Asia that have adopted reform processes, such as Indonesia and India. In India, in particular, we think that recent developments undertaken by the Narendra Modi-led government have shown it is really willing and able to implement reforms.

在拉丁美洲和亚洲的很多新兴市场国家,经济活动仍远低于其潜力,但制造业和消费领域的情绪均有好转的迹象。这在进行改革的亚洲国家表现得尤为真实,例如印尼和印度。特别是印度,莫迪政府近期采取的发展措施已显示该国真正愿意并有能力实施改革。

Reforms appear to be on the agenda for China too, although in our view China is very good at making eye-catching announcements but perhaps not as good at delivering on the execution of all of its plans, notably in the field of privatization and other public sector reforms.

中国似乎也将改革提上日程,即使我们认为中国擅长发布引人注目的公告,但在其所有计划的执行方面也许没那么出色,尤其是在私有化和其他公共部门改革领域。

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Commodity Pricing Has Supported Improving Export Levels

商品价格支持出口增长

There is now clear evidence that export levels have been generally improving in emerging markets. Many countries have benefited to a great extent from commodity prices, which have been at more reasonable levels than in the past. Certainly, lower commodity prices are hurting businesses running a high-cost-base operation, but they have benefited those markets that are investing in infrastructure, especially the big consumer markets purchasing cheaper commodities. Lower commodity prices also have translated directly into better current account balances for almost all emerging markets.

显然,目前新兴市场的出口水平已整体提高。很多国家在很大程度上受益于比以往更合理的商品价格。当然,较低的商品价格在损害经营高成本业务的公司,但却让正投资基建的市场受益,尤其是在购买较廉价商品的大型消费市场。较低的商品价格也已直接转化为几乎所有新兴市场更理想的经常帐户结余。

Don't Underestimate Current Account Balance Improvement

美国加息的影响

We think one should not underestimate the implications of the very sharp improvement in emerging-market current account balances, especially in the face of potentially rising US interest rates. In particular, we believe that the healthier shape of current accounts could serve as a significant mitigating factor for emerging-market currencies generally against the vulnerability associated with the higher cost of refinancing in hard currency should the US Federal Reserve (Fed) embark on a rate-raising path.

投资者不应低估新兴市场经常帐户结余急剧改善所带来的影响,尤其是在美国可能会加息的环境下。特别地,若美联储开始加息,较稳健的经常帐户可显著减轻强势货币融资成本上升给整体新兴市场货币带来的冲击。

It's a further positive sign, in our view, that overall debt levels are low in emerging markets and that in many cases we've seen a gradual reduction in interest rates—notably in Brazil and a number of Asian countries. Of course, there are some exceptions; some countries haven't done their homework, in our view.

新兴市场整体债务水平低,而且多个市场正在逐步减息(尤其是巴西和多个亚洲国家),这些都是进一步的正面信号。当然 ,也有一些例外,我们认为某些国家并没有做功课。

Impact of Rising US Interest Rates

不要低估经常帐户结余的改善

Our research shows that if one looks back at periods of previous US interest-rate increases (for example between 1998 and 2000 or 2003 and 2007) underlying emerging-market currencies rallied.1 It's a similar story for emerging-market equities.

我们的研究显示,在美国以往的加息期间,例如从1998年至2000年或2003年至2007年期间,相关的新兴市场货币回弹。[1]新兴市场股票的情况也类似。

In regard to emerging-market equities, the trend generally appears to be a period of weakness up to the actual event of the first increase in interest rates. Once that event has been priced in and absorbed, then in general emerging markets (six out of seven cases as reflected in the chart below) have been able to advance. Our opinion is that current market conditions—notably in terms of relative valuation, relative debt levels and current account balances in emerging markets—would support this scenario again should the Fed tighten rates.

新兴市场股票方面,其整体趋势似乎处于首次加息发生前的低迷期。一旦该事件被消化和吸收,整体新兴市场随后能够一直上扬,如下图所示(七次中有六次上升)。我们认为,如果美联储收紧利率,当前的市况(尤其是新兴市场的相对估值、相对债务水平和经常帐户结余方面)会再次支持这种情况。

1216_em_fed_equities 1216_EMFed_Currency2.png 1216_emfed_currency2

How Does Economic Good News Translate to Corporate Earnings?

经济利好如何转化为公司盈利?

Notwithstanding the raft of generally positive fundamental economic data, earnings at the corporate level in emerging markets have been through a weak period recently—almost all emerging markets have observed a contraction in absolute terms, and many have seen a contraction in relative growth—but for the first time in five years, we have begun to see a potential turnaround.

虽然市场上有大量总体正面的基本面经济数据,但新兴市场的公司盈利最近一直处于低迷期,其中从绝对值来看,几乎所有新兴市场均录得收缩,很多公司的相对增长一直在收缩,但我们五年来首次看到盈利增长似乎已开始好转。

An analysis of third-quarter 2016 reported results indicates that emerging-market corporate earnings outpaced developed countries by a wide margin and have begun to outpace their own five-year history. We have a fairly optimistic view of the nearer-term quarters from an earnings perspective and believe next year should be another supportive year for the corporate earnings recovery in emerging markets, albeit coming from a fairly low base.

二零一六年第三季度业绩报告的一份分析显示,新兴市场公司盈利大幅度超过发达国家,并已开始超过其自身的五年历史水平。我们对最近几个季度的盈利前景感到相当乐观,同时认为明年新兴市场公司盈利会继续回升,尽管是从相当低的基础上回升。

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Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Past performance is not an indicator or a guarantee of future performance.

[1] 过往表现并非将来结果的指示或保证。

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