越南的转变
Vietnam's Transformation
1965字
2019-12-24 08:37
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), German

这篇文章也有中文(简体),德文版

In just a few decades, Vietnam has undergone a dramatic transformation, from an agrarian society to one that has embraced the modern era. Its youthful population and growing middle class have helped drive solid growth—and opportunities for many global investors. This up-and-coming market hasn't fully embraced capitalism—it remains a Communist state—but it has managed to achieve an interesting balance. There has been a bit of buzz about Vietnam among investors in the past few years, but given the election of Donald Trump as the next US president, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), of which Vietnam would have been a key beneficiary, seems even less likely to move forward. However, new trade deals are in the works—including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which Vietnam has joined along with nine other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well as Australia, China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea and New Zealand. And, there could be new, bi-lateral trade deals in the future.

短短几十年,越南经历了让人瞩目的转变,从一个农耕社会变为充满现代化气息的社会。该国的年轻人口和日益壮大的中产阶级均有助于推动经济稳健增长,同时为很多国际投资者提供机会。这个极富前景的市场尚未完全实现资本主义,目前还是一个共产主义国家,但其已在努力地实现两者间的良好平衡。在过去几年里,越南一直是投资者热议的话题,但特朗普当选下一任美国总统后,本应会让越南成为主要受益国的泛太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)似乎不太可能会继续向前发展。不过,其他新的贸易协议正在筹备中,包括越南和东盟其他九个成员共同参与的地域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP),该协定的参与者还包括澳大利亚、中国、印度、日本、韩国和新西兰。未来也会有新的双边贸易协议。

vietnam_shopping_rev

Nevertheless, I believe Vietnam remains an attractive destination for both investors and tourists, and we think its future looks bright. I recently had the opportunity to visit Vietnam and see the latest wave of changes taking place.

虽说如此,但我认为越南对投资者和游客而言依然是具有魅力的目的地,而且其未来也一片光明。近段时间我游览了越南,而且目睹了该国的最新改革浪潮。

Vietnam has seen strong economic growth, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging just shy of 7% from 2000–2015.1 This economic boom has also boosted consumer buying power. In 1990, gross national income (GNI) per capita was US$910, but by 2015, it had risen to $5,690.2 During my recent trip to Vietnam, I found tremendous opportunities in the consumer sector as a result of this rise in income levels.

越南经济增长强劲,2000年至2015年期间,其平均GDP增长将近7%。1经济上的繁荣也提高了消费者的购买力。1990年,该国的人均国民总收入为910美元,但到2015年已升至5,690美元。2我在这次的越南之旅中发现,由于收入水平上升,消费行业存在巨大的机会。

For example, we visited a dairy company and learned that while per-capita milk consumption in the United States has been above 100 liters per person per year, and in China it was 30 liters, in Vietnam it was only 16 liters. However, that number has been growing very quickly, and it's no wonder the milk company we visited in Vietnam has seen profit growth every year for the last five years. The company produces fresh raw milk from local cows as well as reconstituted milk from powder, condensed milk, baby formula and yogurt. The company exports its products not only to its neighbors in Asia but also to some markets in the Middle East.

例如,我们参观了一间奶制品公司,了解到虽然美国每年人均牛奶消耗量为100公升以上,中国为30公升,而越南仅为16公升。 然而,该数据一直在非常快速地增长,难怪我们参观的越南牛奶公司在过去五年来每一年都实现利润增长。该公司生产当地奶牛产的鲜牛奶,以及由乳粉制成的还原乳、炼乳、婴幼儿配方奶粉和酸奶。该公司的产品不仅出口到亚洲的邻国,还出口到中东的部分市场。

Many companies in Vietnam are government-majority owned, but privatization is expanding with plans to publicly list shares of a number of companies in the future. Some will initially be listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's secondary exchange, the UPCoM, which has less stringent disclosure requirements, but we think eventually many companies will likely be required to list on the main board and institute broader disclosure. We believe the sale of some state-owned enterprises should help lower Vietnam's rising national debt, but foreign direct investments are strong, and industry and exports are doing well. As services (including tourism) represent more than 40% of Vietnam's GDP, it is the area we are most interested in.3

越南很多公司均由政府拥有大部分股权,但随着大量公司计划上市,未来私有化程度会加深。部分公司最初会在胡志明证券交易所的次级交易所UPCoM上市,该交易所的披露要求不太严格,但我们认为很多公司最终将有可能要在主板上市并作出更广泛的披露。我们认为出售部分国有企业应有利于降低越南不断增加的国家债务,但外国直接投资强劲,而且工业和出口也表现出色。因为服务业(包括旅游业)占越南GDP的比例超过40%,因此,服务业是我们最感兴趣的领域。3

Phu Quoc Island

富国岛

To study Vietnam's tourist industry, my colleagues and I flew down to Phu Quoc Island off the coast of southern Vietnam. We landed at a new, modern airport capable of handling a growing influx of both local and foreign tourists. Local tourists can fly from Ho Chi Minh City for the equivalent of only US$30 to US$50 one way on Vietnam's low-cost airline. While travel regulations can be tricky and ever-changing, today, foreign tourists can stay between 15 to 30 days without a visa in Phu Quoc, which is a unique concession not available for visitors to other parts of Vietnam.

为了研究越南的旅游业,我和同事们乘坐飞机到越南南部的富国岛。飞机降落在一个新落成的现代化机场,该机场足以接纳日益剧增的当地及外国游客。当地游客可从胡志明市乘坐越南的廉价航空到此,单程仅需要30-50美元。虽然旅行监管会比较麻烦而且经常变化,但目前外国游客可免签证在富国岛停留15到30天,这是游客在越南其他地方所无法享受的特许权。

On Phu Quoc Island

During our stay, we drove and cycled from one end of the island to the other and found a construction boom under way with new hotels, apartments, villas and a spectacular cableway under construction linking the island with other smaller islands. Phu Quoc itself is a large island (574 square kilometers compared with Singapore's 719), and Vietnam's government has designated it for tourist development.

在岛上停留期间,我们驱车绕到岛的另一端,发现很多建筑正拔地而起,包括新酒店、公寓、别墅和一条在建的壮观的空中索道,可连接该岛和其他较小的岛屿。富国岛本身就是一个大型岛屿(面积为574平方公里,而新加坡仅为719平方公里),越南政府已指定对该岛进行旅游开发。

We drove to our hotel on a new four-lane highway, and as we toured the island we saw construction of a new north-south four-lane highway under way as well. The government has spent over US$1 billion thus far for infrastructure on the island, including more than US$700 million on the airport where we arrived. According to regional news reports, through summer of 2016, the government had approved and licensed more than 160 projects involving a total investment of more than US$6 billion.

我们开车通过一条新建的四车道公路回到酒店,而且在岛上游览时,我们还看到该岛正在新建一条南北走向的四车道公路。到目前为止,政府在该岛的基建投入已经超过10亿美元,包括我们抵达的机场所投入的7亿多美元。从地区性的新闻报道了解到,整个2016年夏季政府已批准及许可超过160个项目,总投资超过60亿美元。

As a microcosm of the country as a whole, Phu Quoc has seen quite a transformation when we consider its history as a place of refuge. The island was also once a prison camp used during various regimes, from the French colonial period through the Vietnam War. One of the tourist attractions is a prison camp/museum, complete with barbed wire, guard towers, and models of guard soldiers and prisoners. The island is also famous for its fish sauce and for peppercorns; which we saw growing on vines around the island.

作为整个国家的一个缩影,富国岛已发生了相当大的转变,与历史上的避难所形成鲜明对比。从法国殖民地时期到越南战争,该岛在改朝换代期间也曾被用作战俘集中营。该岛的其中一个观光胜地是一个战俘集中营/博物馆,还有带刺的铁丝网、守卫塔以及守卫士兵和囚犯的模型。该岛的鱼露和胡椒也闻名于世,后者生长在该岛随处可见的藤蔓上。

vietnam_resort

Tourism is transforming the island's economy, which had previously subsisted on fishing and the aforementioned peppers and fish sauce. A major Vietnamese developer constructed a huge complex at the northern part of the island, including 1,000 hotel rooms, 1,000 villas, a safari park (apparently one of the world's largest), a water park and an amusement park featuring many types of roller coasters and other stomach-churning rides. There is also a 27-hole golf course, an international hospital and facilities for what could become a major casino.

旅游业正在转变该岛的经济,之前赖以生存的是渔业和前面提及的胡椒和鱼露。越南一间大型开发商在岛的北部建了一个大型综合项目,包括1,000间酒店客房、1,000栋别墅、一个野生动物园(据称规模位居世界前列)、一个水上乐园,以及一个以多种类型的过山车和其他让人惊心动魄的设施为特色的游乐场。还有一个27洞的高尔夫球场、一间国际性医院和可成为大型赌场的设施。

Another developer is building a complex on the southern part of the island, which includes a spectacular cable car that crosses the sea to neighboring islands. We also saw other new hotels being built along the beach.

另一名开发商正在岛的南部建设一个综合项目,当中包含一辆横贯大海到达邻岛的壮观缆车。我们看到沿着海滩也有其他新酒店正在建设。

A pearl farm has also been introduced, so we saw a number of shops promoting the local pearls. Touring the villages around the island we noticed there was still a dire need for better roads and facilities. The influx of tourists and construction of high-end facilities to accommodate them have brought good-paying, steady jobs to many locals who had been suffering a low standard of living before.

该岛还推出了珍珠养殖场,因此可以看到很多店铺在促销当地珍珠。游览该岛周围的村庄时,我们发现该岛还急需更好的道路和设施。为了接待汹涌而来的游客,该岛建设了各种高端设施,这为之前饱受煎熬的很多当地人提供了高收入的稳定工作。

An African Safari? It's Actually Vietman

For example, one of the Vietnamese cooks at our hotel told us that he had been a fisherman, but now he was doing better financially. As a fisherman, he said life was dangerous and uncertain because he never knew if he could catch enough fish to earn a living. Now, with his wife also working, they are living a better life.

例如,我们入住的酒店的一名越南厨师告知,他过去是渔民,但现在有了更高的收入。渔民的工作充满了各种危险和未知,因为他永远不知道是否能够捕到足够多的鱼来维持生计。现在他的妻子也有工作,他们的生活得到了改善。

While some may criticize development in naturally beautiful places like Phu Quoc, it's important to look at the issue from many angles. For the 100,000+ natives on the island, prospects are now brighter. Hopefully, development in Vietnam and elsewhere can come with the right intentions and the right balance of interests. With their kind, hospitable nature and happy dispositions, the residents of Phu Quoc, in my view, will make their island a tourism success. We are excited about the potential for further growth and transformation in Vietnam.

虽然,对富国岛这样的自然美景进行开发可能会引来部分人的批判,但重要的是从多个角度看待问题。对于岛上的10万多名当地人来说,现在他们的未来变得更加明朗。希望越南和其他地方的开发都能够有正确的发展目的并恰当地平衡各方的利益。凭借人们善良、热情友好的本性以及精妙的部署,我们认为,富国岛的居民会把该岛打造成一个旅游胜地。我们为越南的未来增长潜力和转变感到兴奋。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, October 2016.

1.资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》数据库,二零一六年十月。

2. Source: World Bank, data as of 2015. GNI per capita is expressed in purchasing power parity dollars to adjust for price level differences across countries.

2.资料来源:世界银行,数据截至二零一五年。人均国民总收入以购买力平价计算并以美元表示,以调整不同国家之间的物价水平差异。

3. Source: CIA World Factbook, data as of 2015.

3. 资料来源:美国中情局《世界概况》,数据截至二零一五年。

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