新兴市场旅游业的转变
A Travel Transformation in Emerging Markets
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2019-12-23 11:25
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本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文、波兰文版

I recently penned a blog on opportunities within leisure and entertainment in emerging markets, including the travel industry. With improved infrastructure and more access to reasonably priced flights, more travelers have been able to explore exotic locations they had previously only read about or seen on television. And, it is not just those in developed markets that are seeing the sights—many people living in emerging markets have more discretionary income available to enjoy leisure travel, too.

我最近写了一篇博客,有关新兴市场休闲与娱乐行业的机遇,其中包括旅游业。随着基建改善及航班变得更加合理,更多的游客能够探索之前只是读过或在电视上看过的异国风情。而且,不仅仅是发达市场的游客可以有此享受,很多生活在新兴市场的人们也有更多的可支配收入,供其享受休闲旅行。

Traveling to and within emerging markets is now far easier and faster today than ever—in some places, gleaming airports and train stations even rival or surpass those of developed markets. When I first started doing research more than 40 years ago, air travel simply didn't exist in many developing countries. There were few airports and far fewer airlines. Airplanes were also less efficient and could not travel the distances they achieve now.

如今,前往新兴市场以及在新兴市场之间旅游比以前更容易且更快捷,部分地方的机场和火车站的豪华程度甚至能够与发达市场相媲美,或者更甚。在我四十多年前第一次做研究的时候,许多发展中国家根本不存在航空旅行。他们几乎没有机场,航空公司更是少得可怜。飞机也效率低下,航程无法达到现在的距离。

Infrastructure on the ground was similarly lacking, with poor roads and limited or no trains. One research trip I took to Indonesia back then offers an example of how difficult it was to get from place to place. My aim was to study soap manufacturing there, which required me to cover the entire country from the north of Sumatra down to the southern tip of Bali. There were few direct flights and travel involved small planes, buses, taxis, water ferries, motorcycles and even bicycles! My journey was often very exhausting before I even started my work.

地面基建同样缺乏,道路破旧而且火车数量有限或者没有。我有一次去印尼做研究,就印证了从一个地方到另一个地方有多难。我的目的是研究那里的肥皂制造,这需要走遍整个国家,从苏门答腊北部到巴厘岛的南端。那里几乎没有直达航班,旅行靠小型飞机、公共汽车、出租车、水轮渡、摩托车,甚至是自行车!这样的旅程经常让我在开始工作之前就已疲惫不堪。

I started in Medan and traveled to Palembang and other parts of Indonesia to visit the soap factories, often on bumpy dirt roads. There were not many hotels in the modern sense, so I stayed at traditional Indonesian inns (called losmen) which were small facilities, often an extension of someone's home.

我从棉兰出发,前往巴邻旁和印尼的其他地区访问肥皂工厂,经常在崎岖不平的泥土路上颠簸。那里很少有现代化的酒店,所以我住在传统的印尼客栈(称为旅店),通常是从别人家里延伸出来的小房间。

Upon arriving in Bali, I discovered my passport was still at the losmen in Surabaya. In those days, it was customary for the losmen or hotel staff to take a guest's passport and keep it until departure. In this case, they had forgotten to give it back to me. In my rush to get to my next destination, I forgot to ask them for it when I checked out.

抵达巴厘岛后,我发现我的护照还在泗水的旅店里。在当时,旅店或旅馆员工会保管客人的护照直至离开,这是惯例。在这种情况下,他们忘了将护照返还给我。我急匆匆赶往下一个目的地,在退房时忘了索回。

Losing my passport could have been a major disaster, but fortunately, the great kindness and hospitality of the Indonesians ensured its safe and swift return to me. The police in Bali were nice enough to help me call the losmen in Surabaya, and they sent my passport to Bali on the next bus. I had to delay my travels one day to wait for it to arrive, but I was so thankful to have it back, as I would not have been able to proceed without it.

遗失护照对我来说是一个重大的灾难,但幸运的是,印尼人的善良及好客确保护照的安全,并迅速还给我。巴厘岛的警察非常友善地帮我联系泗水的旅店,他们乘坐下一趟公共汽车将护照送到巴厘岛给我。我不得不将行程推迟一天等拿护照,但非常庆幸能够找回,若没有护照,我将无法继续我的行程。

Today, growing numbers of visitors from around the world are able to enjoy Indonesia's many attractions and travel more easily around the country than I did back in the day. The government has prioritized tourism, and it seems to be paying off—Indonesia jumped to 50th in 2015 from 70th in 2013 in the World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report.1 While more investment in infrastructure is needed in Indonesia, air travel has widely expanded. I can now visit several Indonesian companies in one day and use my own mobile phone to call for assistance or make arrangements in most parts of the country.

今天,全世界越来越多的游客能够享受到印尼的很多旅游胜地,而到全国旅行也比我当时更容易。政府十分重视旅游业,而且似乎是倾囊相助,在世界经济论坛发布的全球旅游与观光竞争力报告中,印尼从二零一三年的第70名跃声至二零一五年的第50名。[1]虽然印尼需要在基建上投资更多,但航空旅行已被广泛应用。现在我一天之内可以到访多家印尼公司,而且在该国大部分地区,我可以用手机寻求帮助或作出安排。

Tourism is important for Indonesia as well as many other countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).2 For example, travel and tourism directly or indirectly accounted for nearly 30% of Cambodia's gross domestic product (GDP) and more than 20% of Thailand's GDP, as of 2015.3

对印尼以及东南亚国家联盟(东盟)[2] 的许多其他国家而言 ,旅游业非常重要。例如,截至二零一五年,旅行和旅游业直接或间接占柬埔寨国内生产总值接近30%,以及占泰国国内生产总值 20%以上。[3]

It's important to note that economists have found tourism has a great impact on a wide swath of the population through what they call the “multiplier effect.” That is, tourist dollars reach directly into the retail and hospitality parts of the economy where many people in the middle- and lower-income groups are working.

值得注意是,经济学家已发现通过他们所谓的“乘数效应”,旅游业对一大批人口产生了重大的影响。也就是说,游客的资金直接流入零售及酒店行业,而在这些行业中有许多中低收入工作者。

Chinese tourists are venturing outside their borders in greater numbers and are a key part of tourism growth in Asia and other parts of the world. In 2000, nearly 10 million Chinese tourists visited ASEAN countries, but by 2015, the number had grown to 78 million.4 The combined ASEAN destinations accounted for 21% of Chinese outbound visitors in 2015.5 That being the case, it's worth looking at some travel and leisure trends and developments in China.

中国出境旅游的人数较多,构成了亚洲及世界其他地方旅游业增长的一个关键因素。二零零零年,接近1,000万中国游客到访东盟国家,但至二零一五年,人数已增长至7,800万。[4]二零一五年中国出境游客有21%前往东盟国家。[5]既然如此,中国部分旅游和休闲趋势及发展很值得关注。

Travel In and Out of China

中国的国内和境外旅游

The expansion of the travel industry in China is quite remarkable. During the National Day holiday in October 2016 (also referred to as “Golden Week”) more than 590 million domestic trips were made nationwide in China, which was up nearly 13% from the same time in 2015.6 Total tourism spending reached RMB 421 billion, up 14% from the previous year, and the Chinese spent a record amount of money on shopping and food during the holiday week, too. The Chinese aren't only traveling domestically during their holidays, either. Morocco was cited as a hot destination for Chinese tourists during Golden Week last year, and this year's Lunar New Year saw Chinese travelers flock to other countries in Asia as well as to Europe and North America.

中国旅游业的发展相当引人瞩目。二零一六年国庆节(也称“黄金周”)期间,全国范围内的国内游人数超过5.9亿人次,比二零一五年同期增加近13%。[6]旅游总支出达4,210亿元,比去年增加14%,而且中国人在国庆期间用于购物和食品的消费金额也创新高。中国人在假期期间也不仅仅在国内旅游。去年黄金周,摩洛哥被中国游客列为旅游热点,而今年春节,中国游客涌到亚洲、欧洲和北美洲的其他国家。

Since 2004, China has seen double-digit growth in expenditure every year, leading the world in outbound travel.7

自二零零四年以来,中国每年的支出实现两位数增长,出境游排在世界前列。[7]

High-speed train, Guiyang, China station

Decades ago, leisure travel was unheard of for most Chinese citizens. Today, many Chinese consumers have more disposable income for travel and leisure. In 2001, just 3% of China's population was considered middle income, but by 2011, that figure rose to 18% of the population.8 In absolute terms, that means more than 200 million people crossed the middle-income threshold.9 While China boasts the world's largest middle-class population in absolute numbers, it is still below the global average in terms of percentages.

几十年前,休闲旅游对大部分中国人来说前所未闻。如今,很多中国消费者有更多的可支配收入供其旅游和休闲。二零零一年,中国只有3%的人口被视为中等收入人群,但到二零一一年,该人口数量已上升到18%。[8]按绝对值计算,这意味着跨越中等收入门槛的人口已超过2亿。[9]虽然,据称中国中产阶级人口的绝对数量为全球之最,但按比例计算还是低于全球平均数。

Nevertheless, per-capita disposable income has been on the rise in urban households, up some 165% from 2006 to 2015, reaching 31,195 yuan (US$4,551).10

即便如此,城市家庭的人均可支配收入一直在增加,从二零零六年至二零一五年期间增加约165%,达到人均31,195元(4,551美元)。[10]

According to an Economist Intelligence Unit report, by 2030, 35% of China's population (representing around 480 million consumers) is expected to meet its definitions of upper middle-income and high-income, with upper middle-income consumers having a disposable income of RMB 67,000–200,000 (US$10,800–32,100) and high-income consumers having a disposable income above RMB 200,000 (US$32,100).11

经济学人智库的一份报告指出,到二零三零年,预计中国将有35%的人口(约4.80亿消费者)达到其定义的中上收入和高收入,其中,中上收入消费者的可支配收入为67,000–200,000元(10,800–32,100美元),高收入消费者的可支配收入高于200,000元(32,100美元)。[11]

Leisure Activities in China

中国的休闲活动

The development of leisure activities in China is ongoing, so I would expect more development in this area. China's government has mandated an increase in service industries as a percentage of GDP as part of an effort to transform its economy toward a domestic-growth orientation versus an export-oriented manufacturing one.

中国的休闲活动一直在发展,因此,我预计该领域会有更大的发展。中国政府已致力提高服务业占国内生产总值的比重,以此帮助推进其经济向以内需拉动的经济转型,而不是以出口为主导的制造业经济。

In southern China, Macau has developed a huge service industry based on gaming and is known as the “Las Vegas of China,” but it is morphing into a general entertainment center, which continues to grow. Macau (also spelled Macao) is a semi-autonomous region on the south coast of China that was a Portuguese territory until 1999. Today, it is formally known as the Macao Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China.

在华南地区,澳门已发展出一个以博彩业为基础的庞大服务产业,而且被誉为“中国的拉斯维加斯”,但其正蜕变为一个综合性的娱乐中心并将继续蓬勃发展。澳门是中国南海岸的一个半自治区,一九九九年才从葡萄牙手中收回。目前,其正式名称为中华人民共和国澳门特别行政区。

On a recent visit to Macau, my colleagues and I visited a hot-springs resort that we had seen in the past. When it first opened about 10 years ago, the facilities were quite impressive, but maintenance had deteriorated since then and the once-crowded attraction had only a few visitors on this subsequent visit. It just goes to show that if you build it people may come—but you need to maintain it! As an investor, it also demonstrates the importance of seeing and assessing a situation first-hand. Even when something looks promising, conditions can quickly change. It's important to uncover why.

在近期的澳门之旅中,我和同事们参观了以前去过的一个温泉度假村。10年前度假村刚开业时,其设施相当完善,但之后维护不利,而且我们这次发现,曾经熙熙攘攘的胜地如今接待的游客寥寥可数。这只说明,度假村建成了会有人来,但要进行维护!作为投资者,这也说明了亲眼所见和实地评估的重要性。虽然有的东西当时看起来很有前景,但情况会很快改变。重要的是找出其中的原因。

Our travels to Hengqin Island in Zhuhai illustrated the improvements in infrastructure we have seen in the past few decades in the region. Zhuhai became a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the late 1970s with the government's policy that opened a “window” to Macau and the outside world. The SEZs offered foreign investors special incentives, including more favorable tax rates and less red tape. Zhuhai's SEZ status meant it would receive a boost in infrastructure spending, and we saw plenty of evidence of that.

我们的珠海横琴之旅看到了该地区过去几十年来基础设施的改善。二十世纪七十年代末,政府实施开放政策,向澳门和外界打开一扇“窗”,珠海因此成为一个经济特区。经济特区为外国投资者提供特殊的待遇,包括较优惠的税率和简化程序。珠海拥有经济特区地位意味着其将获得基建支出支持,这一点有大量的证据可以证明。

Today, there are a variety of projects at various stages of development to advance key areas within the zone and aiding development of China's coastal areas in particular. A Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge and tunnel project is still under construction but nearly complete, and will link the regions more closely and likely invite even more visitors.

如今,各种各样的项目已发展到不同的阶段,推动着该地区的关键领域发展,尤其是支持中国沿海地区的发展。港珠澳大桥和隧道项目仍在建设中,但已接近完工,其将这几个地区更紧密地连接起来,而且有可能会吸引更多游客。

During my travels in and around China over the years, I've seen many new developments including new things to do and see—too many to count!

过去几年到中国各地旅行期间,我看到了很多新的发展,包括做过和见到的新事物,真是数不胜数!

Those with antiquated notions of China will be greeted with fast, reliable bullet trains, gleaming shopping malls and impressive theaters, sports arenas and other attractions for tourists. There is still plenty of need for more infrastructure development in China. And if its consumer population continues to expand in numbers and purchasing power, no doubt, there will be many more changes and investment opportunities to come!

那些用陈旧的观念看待中国的人们,迎接他们的将是高速可靠的子弹头火车、繁华的购物商场、令人印象深刻的影院、运动竞技场和其他吸引游客的旅游胜地。中国仍需要建设大量的基础设施。而且随着其消费人口的数量和购买力不断增多增强,毫无疑问,更多的变化和投资机会将会接踵而至!

Riding the rails in China

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: World Economic Forum, “The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2015.”

[1] 资料来源:世界经济论坛“2015年全球旅游与观光竞争力报告”。

2. Countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Laos, Indonesia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

[2] 东南亚国家联盟的国家包括文莱达鲁萨兰国、柬埔寨、老挝、印尼、缅甸、新加坡、泰国和越南。

3. Source: World Travel & Tourism Council, “Travel & Tourism Investment in ASEAN,” October 2016.

[3] 资料来源:世界旅游及旅行理事会,“东盟的旅游及旅行投资”(Travel & Tourism Investment in ASEAN),二零一六年十月。

4. Ibid.

[4] 同上。

5. Ibid.

[5] 同上。

6. Source: China National Tourism Administration, October 2016.

[6] 资料来源:中国国家旅游局,二零一六年十月。

7. Source: World Tourism Organization, data through 2015.

[7] 资料来源:世界旅游组织,数据截至二零一五年。

8. Source: Pew Research Center, “A Global Middle Class Is More Promise Than Reality,” July 8, 2015. As defined in this study, people who are middle income live on $10 to $20 a day, which translates to an annual income of $14,600 to $29,200 for a family of four.

[8] 资料来源:皮尤研究中心“A Global Middle Class is More Promise Than Reality”,二零一五年七月八日。根据该研究的定义,中等收入人群每天生活消费10美元到20美元,换算为一个四口之家的年收入则为14,600美元到29,200美元。

9. Ibid.

[9] 同上。

10. Source: China's National Bureau of Statistics.

[10] 资料来源:中国国家统计局。

11. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, “The Chinese Consumer in 2030.” There is no assurance any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[11] 资料来源:经济学人智库“二零三零年的中国消费者”(The Chinese Consumer in 2030)。不保证任何推测、估计或预测会实现。

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