风靡亚洲的娱乐和休闲活动
Entertainment and Leisure in Asia
1846字
2019-12-23 11:13
50阅读
火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), Spanish, Polish

这篇文章也有中文(简体)、西班牙文、波兰文版

Happy Chinese New Year to all my friends and followers! There's no question it's a big holiday for leisure and entertainment. Last year, retail and dining expenditures for the Lunar New Year came in at 754 billion yuan ($US115 billion), according to China's Ministry of Commerce. This is substantially higher than spending for the US Thanksgiving holiday and “black Friday,” the biggest shopping day of the year in the United States. As many families and friends not only in China but also elsewhere in Asia celebrate the holiday with food, festivities and travel getaways, it belies the misconception some Westerners still have that manufacturing and low-wage exports are the main economic drivers of emerging markets.

各位朋友、粉丝,大家春节好!毫无疑问,又到了一个可以尽情放松、休闲娱乐的盛大节日。根据中国商务部的数据,去年农历新年期间,人们在购物和餐饮上的支出高达7540亿元人民币,约合1150亿美元。这比美国感恩节期间和大型购物狂欢节“黑色星期五”的消费额更加惊人。为了欢度农历新年,不只是在中国,在亚洲各个国家的许多家庭和朋友都会一同享用美食,参加庆祝活动,约伴出行旅游等。这也推翻了许多西方人仍持有的一种错误观念——认为新兴市场目前还是主要靠制造业和低成本出口来带动经济发展。

In fact, domestic demand is generally the bigger economic driver in emerging Asia and also in some other regions—and could help insulate some of these countries from external shocks. This shift toward a more domestic orientation has been going on in China in particular for quite some time, fueled by improved education, rising wages and higher productivity. Other emerging-market countries have seen a similar shift, with entertainment and leisure activities benefiting, along with areas of conspicuous consumption.

事实上,国内需求才是亚洲新兴经济体和其他地区经济发展的更强大驱动力,因此当这些国家遭受外来冲击时,国内需求无疑能为它们提供一定的缓冲。随着教育、收入水平和生产力的提高,中国实际上早已开始实施以国内需求为主导的经济转型。其他新兴市场国家也发生了类似的变化,娱乐和休闲产业顺势而起,还有其他许多“炫富型”领域消费也正涌现。

For quite some time, movies produced in the United States (Hollywood) have depended upon international sales when revenue at home has been disappointing. Today, China, India and other countries in and outside of Asia are beginning to compete. The “Bollywood” name has become globally recognizable with an annual output of more than 1,000 films, which is double that of Hollywood,1 although Bollywood's revenues are much lower and only about 15% of which come from international sales.2 The low cost of producing animation in India and other Asian countries has added another dimension to the film industry that could spur further growth. While the focus here is on Asia, these trends are occurring in other emerging markets too—we've seen the rise of “Nollywood,” Nigeria's booming film industry.

当美国本地票房表现一直强差人意,该国(好莱坞)的电影已需要靠国际票房收入支撑。现在,中国、印度和世界其他国家也希望从中分一杯羹。“宝莱坞”(Bollywood)这个名字逐渐为众人所熟知,[1] 虽然其票房收入远不及好莱坞,且当中只有约15%来自国际票房,但是其每年出产的影片超过1000部,是好莱坞的两倍。[2] 由于印度及其他亚洲国家的动画制作成本低,已经给当地电影产业带来新的机遇,有望进一步促进电影业的发展。当我们把目光都聚焦在亚洲国家时,其它新兴市场也不甘落后:尼日利亚电影产业“尼莱坞”(Nollywood)正蓬勃发展。

While India may be the most prominent in Asia's film industry, there are other countries to watch in this space. Indonesia's President Joko Widodo recently removed a ban on foreign investment in films, so the formerly stagnant Indonesian industry seems likely to sprout. Indonesia—the world's fourth-largest country by population—has relatively few cinemas and therefore is an attractive market.

印度也许是亚洲影业最发达的国家,不过其他亚洲国家也同样跃跃欲试。印度尼西亚总统佐科·维多多(Joko Widodo)近期废除了对外国投资进入电影产业的限制,为前停滞不前的印度尼西亚电影产业带来一次转机。印度尼西亚是世界第四人口大国,但影院数量却屈指可数。因此,这个市场极具吸引力。

The market for fine art is also growing in Asia. Today, the market for art is larger in China than the United Sates, with all the major auction houses such as Christie's and Sotheby's (in addition to China's homegrown auction houses) attracting multimillion-dollar prices for both Western and Asian art.

在亚洲,艺术品市场也在发展。如今,中国的艺术品市场已赶超美国,在各大拍卖行,如佳士得(Christie)、苏富比(Sotheby)以及中国国内各本土拍卖行,诸多东西方艺术作品都叫出了近千万美元的高价。

Pet ownership and related consumption is also becoming more popular in Asia. Once banned, China now has more than 100 million registered pets,3 most of which are dogs and cats but also includes other animals such as rabbits, fish and long-living tortoises—maybe the hope is that their longevity will rub off on their owners! Some households are spending in excess of US$1,000 per year on their pets,4 not only for food, but also for toys and grooming.

养宠物和相关消费在亚洲也变得越来越流行。在中国,养宠物曾一度被禁止,时至今天,中国已登记了上亿只宠物[3],大多是小猫小狗,也包括其他动物,例如小兔子和鱼,还有长寿的乌龟,这也许是主人祈求长寿的方式。部分家庭每年在宠物上的开销超过1000美元[4],包括购买食品、玩具和宠物美容等。

The other leisure-related area that has been growing is dining out, particularly “fast food” with many of the famous American and other foreign brands entering the Asian markets alongside homegrown brands. Quick-service restaurants are the name of the game in India and have experienced a compounded annual growth rate of 25%; about half of India's total population eats out at least once every three months and in bustling urban metro areas, the number rises to eight times in one month.5 With a young population, rising disposable incomes and more women in the workforce, it's easy to see why the “eating out” culture looks set to continue growing in India.

另一个持续增长的休闲消费领域是出外就餐,尤其是“快餐消费”,许多美国和其他国家的知名的连锁餐饮品牌已经进入亚洲市场,与本土快餐品牌共同发展。在印度,快餐店或被称为快速服务餐厅(Quick-service restaurants),按年以25%的复合增长率蓬勃发展; 近一半的印度人每三个月至少外出就餐一次,而在繁忙的都市,这一数字更是飙升至每个月8次。 [5] 人口年轻化,可支配收入增加,更多女性在职场打拼,清楚解释了为什么外出就餐的文化在印度越来越盛行。

Catering to Travelers—and Spectators  

满足游客和观众需求

Travel, of course, is probably the most important growing leisure-time industry as a result of lower-cost airline flights and relaxed visa restrictions in many regions. Japan is becoming a major tourist destination for travelers in other parts of Asia. In 2016, Japan saw a record 24 million overseas visitors, with a quarter coming from China.6 Japan has been actively targeting those celebrating the Lunar New Year this year. Its largest retailer announced it would accept electronic payment through China's most popular mobile-payment app, and car-rental companies in Japan have been working to ease the process for travelers, positioning cars near train stations as well as airports, and not requiring customers to refuel before returning a vehicle. For people living in warm, tropical locales in Asia, the opportunity to see snow in Japan during the winter months—even without leaving one's own time zone in some cases—is a draw.

由于机票价格愈发低廉,且许多地区放松了签证限制,旅游业显然已成为欣欣向荣的休闲产业之核心。日本越来越受到亚洲其它国家游客的青睐。2016年,到日本旅游的外国游客数量达2400万并创下了新纪录,其中四分之一来自中国。[6] 日本今年一直努力吸引更多游客来日欢度春节。其最大的零售商已宣布接受在中国最流行的手机支付的方式;租车公司也不断简化游客租车的流程,在火车站和机场附近储备了更多车辆,且不再要求车辆满油返还。对于生活在亚洲温暖的热带地区的人们来说,有机会在冬天到日本一睹冰雪风光,甚至在某些情况下都无需倒时差,这实在吸引了。

South Korea is also benefiting from the influx of tourism, also predominantly from China. This is not a huge surprise, as China leads the world in terms of outbound travel, with double-digit growth in travel expenditures every year since 2014. 7

韩国也正受惠于旅游业的发展,同样,大多数游客来自于中国。这并不是什么新鲜事,因为中国正引领着出国旅游的世界浪潮,自2014年起,中国人的旅行开销每年都以双位数的速度增长。[7]

Fitness and spectator sports are also very important leisure pursuits for travelers, as well as those watching in their home countries. Football (also known as soccer) is reaching more and more fans in China; the Chinese Super League attracts tens of millions of spectators watching the game live, online and on television. The amount of money spent on player salaries (namely to recruit foreign players) got so out of control that the General Administration of Sport of China, the country's chief governing body for sports, recently announced a spending cap.

无论是对于游客还是本地观众而言,健身和观赏性体育赛事都是非常重要的娱乐方式。在中国,足球拥有越来越多的球迷,中超联赛(Chinese Super League)吸引千万球迷在现场、互联网或在电视上观看比赛。由于给运动员支付的工资(即聘请外籍球员的开销)高得离谱,中国体育总局(主管全国体育运动的政府部门)近期颁布了一项关于开销上限的规定。

The spectator-sports scene in Asia also includes a whole host of other games including basketball and even spectator video games, with South Korea being the center for such “E-sports.” South Koreans take electronic gaming very seriously as it is a great source of national pride, but the theatrical tournaments have attracted players from both Europe and the United States backed by corporate sponsors—a new type of export that is growing globally.

在亚洲,观赏性体育赛事也包括许多其它的运动,比如篮球,甚至还包括在韩国非常盛行的观赏性电子竞技项目。韩国人高度重视电子竞技项目,将此比作它们民族自豪感的巨大源泉,然而这些精彩纷呈的巡回赛也吸引了许多欧美选手,他们获得了许多赞助商的支持,这也是全球范围内正流行的一种新兴出口方式。

The growth of the middle class and rising incomes in many emerging markets means more discretionary income available for leisure pursuits from cinema to theme parks to new food choices to artwork and more. We think this area represents many interesting opportunities for investors—and one that's quite fun to explore!

在许多新兴市场,中产阶级的扩大和人们收入水平的提高意味着人们有更多的闲钱可以花在娱乐活动上,比如看电影、逛主题公园、品尝美食、欣赏艺术等等。我们享受探索这一行业的乐趣,也认为它会为投资者带来更多的投资机会!

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

1. Source: “Indywood, the Indian Film Industry,” September 2016, Deloitte.

[1] 资料来源:《印度坞:印度电影产业》(Indywood, the Indian Film Industry),2016年9月,德勤。

2. Ibid.

[2] 出处同上。

3. Source:  China Daily, “China's Pet Tally Reaches 100 million, mostly cats and dogs,” October 2016.

[3] 资料来源:《中国日报》,“中国的宠物数量已达一亿,大多为小猫小狗”,2016年10月。

4. Ibid.

[4] 出处同上。

5. Source: Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India (ASSOCHAM), October 2015.

[5] 资料来源:印度工商业联合商会(ASSOCHAM),2015年10月。

6. Source: Nikkei Asian Review, “Japan Positions Itself as Hassle-Free Chinese New Year's destination,” January 2017.

[6] 资料来源:《日经亚洲评论》,“日本倾力打造为中国春节热门度假胜地”,2017年1月。

7. Source: World Tourism Organization, 2015 data.

[7] 资料来源:世界旅游组织,2015年数据。

0 条评论
评论不能为空