欢庆30周年纪念日
Celebrating a 30-Year Anniversary
2650字
2019-12-22 09:53
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified)

这篇文章也有中文(简体)版

This month marks my 30-year anniversary with Templeton Emerging Markets Group! The opportunity to open up new emerging markets, learn about new industries, meet wonderful people around the world and most of all be part of the Templeton emerging-markets family has been a real blessing.

这个月迎来了我加入邓普顿新兴市场团队30周年的纪念日!我有机会开拓陌生的新兴市场、了解新兴的行业、遇见世界各地精妙的人们,以及最最重要的是成为邓普顿新兴市场家族的一份子,这真的是上天的眷顾。

This anniversary had me thinking about the many ways the world—and emerging markets—have changed over the past three decades. I am known around the world as a pioneer in the world of emerging-market investing, going places many tourists and investors alike often fear to tread. As such, I have been given some colorful nicknames over the years, including “The Indiana Jones of Emerging-Market Investing,” which I actually find flattering.

这个周年纪念日让我想到全世界和新兴市场在过去30年发生的很多变化。全世界都知道我是新兴市场投资领域的开拓者,去过很多旅游者和投资者通常害怕踏足的地方。所以,这些年来我得到了一些有趣的绰号,其中包括“新兴市场投资的印第安纳·琼斯”,我真的很喜欢这个绰号。

That said, I am not a lone-wolf type action hero. I have had the support and great pleasure of working with a large team over the years and wouldn't have achieved the success I have had without them. So much has happened over the past 30 years within the markets and our team, including the recent change of Stephen Dover taking over my CIO responsibilities of Templeton Emerging Markets Group in 2016. Even though Stephen has taken on the day-to-day management of the team, I continue to serve as executive chairman and enjoy my work exploring and sharing my views on emerging markets on behalf of Franklin Templeton. I have no plans to stop!

虽说如此,但我并不是独行侠。多年来,我非常荣幸能够与一个庞大的团队并肩作战并从中获得支持,没有他们就不会有我的成功。过去30年,市场和我们团队都经历了太多事情,包括最近Stephen Dover的调动,他在二零一六年接替我成为邓普顿新兴市场团队的首席投资官。虽然Stephen承担了团队的日常管理,但我还继续担任执行主席并享受我的工作,代表富兰克林邓普顿探索新兴市场和分享我对新兴市场的观点。我从未想过停下脚步!

I grew up in New York, and when I first graduated from college and went out in search of work, I contacted alumni who I hoped might help me find a professional job. I didn't directly ask them for a job, but rather, for their advice on how to build a career. They were all gracious and their words still resonate with me. One consultant I visited had a plaque on his desk that I will never forget. It explained the success of his very prosperous firm. It said: “There is no limit to how far you can go as long as you don't mind who gets the credit.” In a succinct and eloquent way it conveyed the most elemental truth: Your success depends on the success of other people around you, and by helping them succeed you also succeed.

我在纽约长大,大学毕业寻找工作时,我联系了校友,希望他们能够帮我找到一份专业的工作。我没有直接问他们要一份工作,而是向他们寻求开创事业的一些建议。他们都很亲切,而且他们所说的话依然能够引起我的共鸣。我永远不会忘记我所拜访的一名顾问的办公桌上的那块牌匾。上面的内容解释了他公司成功的秘诀。牌匾上写着:“只要你不在乎是谁拿走了功劳,你的舞台就会无限大。”这句话简练而有说服力地传达了最基本的真理:你的成功在于你周围的人的成功,帮助他人获得成功的同时你也成功了。

Meeting My Mentor: Sir John Templeton

遇见我的良师益友:约翰 •邓普顿爵士

With the late Sir John Templeton (at left, in green)

In the 1970s and early '80s, I had been working as an analyst and broker in Asia and traveled periodically to Nassau in the Bahamas, where the legendary investor Sir John Templeton was based. During one of my presentations to the Templeton portfolio teams, he and I first became acquainted. One day he approached me to lead his new emerging-markets team and manage a new emerging-markets fund he was starting. The investment potential of developing markets had been recognized for a long time, but the actual birth and classification of emerging markets as an investment category in a more formal or recognized way probably could be tied to an event in 1986. The International Finance Corporation (IFC), a World Bank subsidiary, engaged in a campaign to encourage capital market developments in the less-developed countries, which had often been given unflattering designations such as “third-world” nations. At that point in time, a handful of institutional investors invested US$50 million in an emerging-markets strategy at the behest of the World Bank's IFC. A year later, in 1987, MSCI developed its first emerging-markets indexes.1

从二十世纪七十年代到八十年代初,我一直在亚洲从事分析员和经纪人工作,并定期到巴哈马群岛拿骚出差,传奇的投资者约翰 •邓普顿爵士就居住于此。在一次向邓普顿投资团队做报告的过程中,我和他开始相识。有一天,他找我领导他新成立的新兴市场团队,并管理他新创建的一支新兴市场基金。当时,发展中市场的投资潜力长期以来已受到认可,但新兴市场真正诞生并分类为一个较正式或较多人认可的投资类别可能有赖于一九八六年的一个事件。世界银行的成员组织国际金融公司开展了一项运动,鼓励欠发达国家的资本市场发展,而欠发达国家通常被贴上一些不怎讨喜的名称,例如“第三世界”国家。当时,在国际金融公司的要求下,少数机构投资者向一个新兴市场策略投资了5,000万美元。一年后,即一九八七年,摩根士丹利资本国际开发出其首个新兴市场指数。1

In 1987, while working for Templeton, our fund became the first of its kind to be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, opening the world of emerging markets to mainstream investors. Back then, we had only a handful of markets to invest in. Today, the team, known as Templeton Emerging Markets Group, operates as part of Franklin Templeton Investments and we invest in more than 60 countries around the globe.

一九八七年我加入邓普顿时,我们的基金成为了同类中首支在纽约证券交易所上市的基金,为主流投资者打开了新兴市场的大门。在当时,我们投资的市场仅有几个。如今,被世人所知的邓普顿新兴市场团队已成为富兰克林邓普顿投资的一个投资团队,同时我们已可投资全球超过60个国家。

When we started managing emerging-market portfolios, it was a difficult time to invest in many respects. Although there were many emerging-market countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe that looked exciting to us, very few of them were actually open to foreign investment. There were strict foreign exchange controls and limitations, in addition to a plethora of problems with market liquidity, corporate governance and safekeeping of securities.

我们开始管理新兴市场基金时,投资阻碍重重。虽然我们对亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲和欧洲的很多新兴市场国家感兴趣,但实际上只有极少数对外国投资开放。这些市场除了市场流动性、公司治理和证券保管等方面的诸多问题外,还有严格的外汇管制和限制。

We were there at the start of many exciting developments, which included the opening of many markets to wider foreign investment. In the past 30 years, we've also seen the end of apartheid in South Africa, easier access to eastern European economies (including Russia), the opening up of India to foreign investment and, of course, China's embrace of capitalism and rapid urbanization. Today we can invest in a wide variety of emerging markets around the world, as well as a host of “frontier markets,” a designation given to the lesser-developed subsector of emerging markets, which includes the majority of the African continent. We are very excited about the potential for these frontier countries in the next 30 years, as many are growing at a rapid pace and quickly assimilating the latest technological advancements, particularly in mobile finance and e-commerce. Generally, more youthful and growing populations mean consumer power has been on the rise, with a growing middle class.

我们见证了很多激动人心的发展开端,包括很多市场向大量外国投资开放。过去30年来,我们亦见证了南非种族隔离的结束,进入东欧经济体(包括俄罗斯)变得更容易、印度向外国投资开放,当然也包括中国接纳了资本主义及快速城市化。如今我们可以投资全球众多新兴市场,以及大量“前缘市场”,后者是对新兴市场中欠发达市场的叫法,包括非洲大陆的大多数市场。我们对这些前缘国家未来30年的潜力很感兴趣,因为很多国家正迅速发展,同时快速吸纳最新的科技进步,尤其是在移动金融和电子商务方面。一般来说,较年轻而且不断增加的人口意味着消费能力提高,以及中产阶级日益壮大。

Keep Asking “Why?”

不断地问“为什么”

In my investment career, I've found that you need to keep on asking the question: “Why?” Why is that person doing what he is doing? Why is that company making those decisions? What is behind them? By asking such questions, I've been able to miss a lot of possible disasters. Asking questions can be uncomfortable, but pioneers in any field have to get used to stepping outside the comfort zone. While the markets have changed quite a bit since I first met the late Sir John, our core investment philosophy remains true to his enduring approach. Sir John made his foray into Japan in the 1950s, which at the time, was considered a poor and developing country. He bravely invested there and other places in the world where others were not. He taught me many things, but one thing that I have certainly embodied is his message that if you want to be successful, you need to keep an open mind and step outside your comfort zone.

在我的投资生涯中,我发现我们需要不断地问“为什么?”为什么那个人要做他正在做的事情?为什么那个公司会作出这等决策?背后的原因是什么?通过这类问题,我能够避免很多潜在的灾难。提问会让人觉得难受,但任何领域的开拓者都不得不习惯于踏出舒适地带。虽然,自我第一次见到晚年的约翰爵士以来市场发生了相当多变化,但我们的核心投资理念依然忠于他经久不衰的投资方法。约翰爵士在二十世纪五十年代进军日本,当时的日本还被视为一个贫穷的发展中国家。在其他人未有动作时,他已果敢地在日本和全球其他地方进行投资。他教授了我很多东西,但有一点我确已身体力行的做到了:要想成功,你必须保持开放的头脑以及走出舒适地带。

I've developed a firm belief in getting out on the road and seeing the countries and companies we invest in first-hand, which has me on the road 250+ days a year. Racking up over 30 million miles of flight time hasn't been easy, but it's extremely fulfilling.

我已经树立起一个坚定的信念,即走出去、在路上,去考察我们直接投资的国家和公司,因此,一年超过250天的时间我都在旅途中度过。在空中飞行累计超过3,000万英里确实不易,但却非常充实。

The Templeton emerging-markets investment team has grown from just a handful of portfolio managers and analysts many years ago to more than 50 today, and we have expanded our on-the-ground presence from just one research office in Hong Kong (opened in 1987) to 20 offices in locations including Asia and the Middle East, Europe and Latin America. These days, I typically travel with my Franklin Templeton colleagues who have local expertise in a particular market to gain additional insights. It is truly a collaborative effort at every stage—we continually challenge each other and ask lots of questions of government officials as well as company executives and management. We like to visit not only corporate headquarters, but factories and the like where production occurs so we can see the conditions and the process, and speak with the workers.

很多年前邓普顿新兴市场投资团队仅有几名基金经理和分析师,如今团队已发展到超过50名成员,我们的当地办公室已从只有香港一间(设立于一九八七年)扩展到20个,遍布亚洲和中东、欧洲和拉丁美洲。在这段日子里,我通常和富兰克林邓普顿中具备特定市场当地专业知识的同事一起旅行,以此获得额外的深刻见解。这在每个阶段都是一种真正的团队努力—我们不断地质疑彼此,并提出大量有关政府官员以及公司高管与管理层的问题。我们不仅喜欢参观公司总部,还要参观工厂和生产产品的地方,从而能够观察生产环境和过程,并与工人交流。

Lies can be as revealing as truth, if you know what the cues are. You have to observe and listen to the signals that will lead to a true understanding. This is one advantage of getting to know the people who run the show and visiting a factory or plant. While you still have to crunch the numbers and do your due diligence before deciding to invest, you just won't get the same type of rich insight on paper alone.

只要知道诱因所在,谎言也能和真理一样具有启迪作用。你必须观察和倾听可以带你通向正确认识的信号。这是拜访运营公司的人和参观工厂或车间所获得的优势之一。虽然你还须进行精密的计算和严格的调查后才能做出投资决定,但你得到的将不仅仅是从报告中得来的同类型的丰富见解。

My personal theory is countries that make it easy for travelers to enter tend to be friendly to foreign investment. Whenever I visit a new country, my radar kicks in the moment I hop off the plane and pass through customs. It intensifies as we drive into town, check into the hotel, talk to the cab drivers, walk around the neighborhood and chat with the service staff in shops. I have found that condition of the infrastructure is often a sign of economic efficiency of a country, and while I don't like getting stuck in traffic jams, to me they are a sign of a robust economy.

我的个人理论是,游客容易进入的国家往往会欢迎外国投资。每当我考察一个新的国家,我的雷达在我下飞机过海关的瞬间就会开启。它会在我们进入城镇、入住酒店、和出租车司机交谈、在邻近的地方四处走动以及和商店的服务人员聊天时变得敏锐。我已经发现,基建状况通常是一个国家经济效率的标记,而且,虽然我不喜欢堵车,但在我看来这是经济繁荣的一个迹象。

There's No One Secret to Success, but Optimism Helps  

成功没有秘诀,但乐观的心态可助你一臂之力

One of the consequences of being featured in numerous media interviews and having such a distinct look is that I often get recognized in airports and hotel lobbies during my travels. People often ask me for investment insights. While I certainly am vocal about my opinions when it comes to investing, there is no simple secret, no single blueprint, no rigid roadmap that will guarantee you, me or anyone long-term success as a global investor. That said, there are important lessons to be learned, and one of those is to stick to your core philosophy and your convictions, whether in investing, or for that matter, in life. I also strongly believe a sense of humility is extremely important—and the market will certainly do its best to keep you humble!

在众多媒体访谈中曝光而且拥有如此独特外观的一个结果就是,在旅途中我经常会在机场和酒店大堂被人认出来。人们经常问我一些投资见解。虽然,说到投资我当然会直言不讳地发表自己的观点,但不存在单纯的秘诀、单一的蓝本和精确的路线图,能够保证你我或任何人成为常胜不败的全球投资者。虽说如此,但我们可以吸取重要的经验教训,其中之一就是坚持你的核心理念和信念,无论是投资还是生活。我也坚信谦卑感是极其重要的,而且市场也肯定会不遗余力地让你保持谦卑!

To ensure the next generation continues to explore new frontiers like I have, I always urge young people to see the world and seek new ideas and new opportunities. It's very interesting to see the differences in the way the media in different countries portray the same news or market events, and it's equally interesting to actually witness those same events in the various countries with one's own eyes.

为了确保下一代能够像我一样探索新的领域,我总会鼓励年轻人出去见见世面,以及寻找新思路和新的机遇。看到不同国家的媒体以不同的方式描绘相同的新闻或市场事件是十分有趣的事情,而真正亲身目击各个国家的相同事件也同样有趣。

I have definitely seen some disconnect in the way the media have portrayed an incident or conditions in a particular country versus what I have seen and heard from locals. The world is a big place with a wide variety of countries, cultures, languages and industries, but no matter where they live, people are still people and not as dissimilar as many think. At the core—people's hopes and dreams for the future are more alike than not. I think this is a very important message to remember, particularly in the wake of nationalistic or populist movements that have been sweeping many places in the world today. We should not fear each other.

我确实看到这样一种情况:媒体对一个特定国家的一则事故或情况的报道和我在当地的见闻有所脱离。世界很大,有很多不同的国家、文化、语言和行业,但无论身在何处,人依然是人,并未如很多人所认为的存在很大差异。本质上,人们对未来的希望和梦想的相同之处多于不同之处。我认为这是需要谨记的一个非常重要的信息,尤其是在民族主义或民粹主义运动席卷当今世界多个地方之后。我们不应该对彼此感到恐惧。

I also attribute a big part of my success to my unbridled optimism. Some people have actually criticized me for being too optimistic! However, I think that if you focus on all the problems in the world today, it's easy to fall into a sense of despair. I see problems as potential opportunities. The fall of communism and the coming together of nations around the world, combined with the emergence of China and India as free-market economies, have created opportunities for the creation of wealth that are unparalleled. I am optimistic about what the future holds. To me, every corner of the world shows promise; the key for finding the best investments is in doing the research.

我的成功很大程度上也归功于我肆意的乐观。确实有人批评我过于乐观!但我认为,如果你的注意力集中在当今世界的所有问题,你很容易陷入绝望。我把问题看作潜在的机会。共产主义衰落和世界各国联合,以及中国和印度进入自由市场经济模式,这些都带来了创造财富的空前机会。我对未来发展感到乐观。于我而言,世界上的每个角落都有成功的希望,找到最佳投资的关键是进行调查研究。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: The MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI All Country World Indexes were launched on December 31, 1987.  Source: MSCI.

1. 资料来源:MSCI新兴市场指数和MSCI所有国家世界指数于一九八七年十二月三十一日推出。资料来源:摩根士丹利资本国际。

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