中国和影子融资
China and Shadow Financing
2400字
2019-12-22 09:41
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火星译客

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Polish

这篇文章还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、波兰文版

For the first time ever, the president of China was in attendance at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos this month. President Xi Jinping joined a roster of presidents, prime ministers, central bankers, executives and other officials from around the world at this prestigious event, which carried the theme this year of “responsive and responsible leadership.” With China at center stage, I thought it might be appropriate to talk about an aspect of China's economy that I think many people misunderstand: so-called “shadow financing” or “shadow banking,” which is said to be a significant contributor to China's growth rate. In simple terms, shadow financing refers to activities outside the formal banking system that perform similar functions. Shadow banks can make financial services (namely loans) more widely available to the public, but since they are not subject to the same regulations, there is concern about the risk they pose to the financial system. The growth of shadow financing is reflective of an overall boom in consumer-oriented products and services in China. The consumer sector in China is one we are excited about in general.

中国国家主席有史以来首次出席本月在达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛年会。习近平主席与世界各地的总统、首相、央行行长、高管及其他官员共同出席该享负盛名的活动,论坛今年的主题为“领导力:应势而为、勇于担当”。鉴于中国是舞台上的焦点,我认为可能适合讨论中国经济中被很多人误解的一部分,即所谓的“影子融资”或“影子银行”,据说其对中国的经济增长率有巨大贡献。简而言之,影子融资指游离于正规银行系统之外、但发挥类似作用的活动。影子银行可为公众提供更广泛的金融服务(即贷款),但因其所受监管不同,人们担忧其会对金融系统带来风险。影子融资的发展反映出中国的消费者导向型产品和服务的整体繁荣。总体而言,中国的消费行业是我们感兴趣的领域之一。

Some people believe that shadow financing in China is banking reform gone wrong, and is a sign that banks have been circumventing regulations in order to increase or even protect their profit margins. Critics say that this has resulted in the possibility of much higher amounts of bad debt on the books of the banks. Since the Chinese government considers banking to be a strategic industry, it is a big issue.

有人认为,中国的影子融资是错误的银行改革,是银行为了提高甚至保住其利润率而规避监管的一个表现。批判者指出,这导致的结果是银行坏账数目有可能会大幅增加。由于银行业被中国政府视为战略性产业,坏账大增会是一个大问题。

Shadow banking has been associated with China but is practiced in many parts of the world. There is really nothing “shadow” about the term, since it is actually quite transparent. And, it is not “banking” in the true sense of the word since it involves all kinds of investment products, including mutual funds and private equity. Shadow financing is often called “bank loans in disguise,” because a bank is often at the core of the transaction, for example, offering an implicit guarantee for the various wealth products it sells to the non-banks it engages with. This is similar to the major US banks that have affiliated brokerage-end fund sales organizations to sell various wealth-management products.

影子银行与中国有关,但在全球许多国家都存在。这个词汇完全与“影子”无关,实际上它是相当透明的。而且,影子银行并非真正意义上的“银行”,因为其包含了所有类型的投资产品,包括共同基金和私募股权。因为银行通常处于交易的核心,例如为出售与其有业务往来的非银行机构的各种理财产品提供隐性担保,因此影子融资通常被称为“伪装的银行贷款”。这和通过与经纪类基金销售机构关联,借以销售各种理财产品的主要美国银行类似。

Shadow banking has been growing in China. Some estimates indicate shadow financing currently amounts to roughly Rmb58trillion (as of 2015), representing 80% of China's gross domestic product (GDP).1 It started in 2007, when banks were allowed to invest in trust plans, then by 2010 wealth-management products became popular. In 2012, securities, insurance and mutual fund companies entered the market.

中国的影子银行一直在发展。有估计显示,目前影子融资规模约为58万亿元(截至二零一五年),占中国国内生产总值80%。1影子银行在二零零七年银行获准投资信托计划时萌芽,然后到二零一零年理财产品已变得受欢迎。二零一二年,证券、保险和共同基金公司也进入了该市场。

Are Banking Fears Founded?

对银行业的担忧是否有根据?

The fears regarding shadow financing activity are similar to other fears or misconceptions we have found about China, including the fear that the country's total debt is much greater than officially reported. Some say there is not enough disclosure for retail investors in terms of the risk they are taking, and that they are being misled. Of course, concerns about debt and the financial system are not unique to China. In Italy, for example, many banks found themselves saddled with non-performing loans (bad debt), and some small banks faced restructuring. New European Union rules now require stock and bond holders to absorb losses before a government bailout can be implemented. The fate of Italy's third-largest bank still currently hangs in the balance.

人们对影子融资活动的忧虑和与中国有关的其他担忧或错误的观念类似,包括关于该国总债务远高于官方报告水平的忧虑。有人指出,影子融资活动未充分披露零售投资者要承担的风险,从而误导投资者。当然,人们对债务和金融系统的担忧并非中国独有。例如,意大利很多银行背负着不良贷款(坏账),而且一些小型银行面临着重组。新欧盟条例目前要求股票和债券持有人在政府实施救助之前先承担损失。目前意大利第三大银行的命运仍悬而未决。

Many consider shadow financing in China to be operating outside the regulated banking system, but the People's Bank of China, which carries out monetary policy and regulates financial institutions in mainland China, is aware of these activities. Securities regulators are also aware of them. In China, there is generally a lag in financial reform because of the conflicting interests of wanting to have a modern market economy, while at the same time wanting to keep control of it. This is a challenge for China in many areas of the economy, not only in banking.

很多人认为,中国的影子融资在受监管的银行系统之外运作,但中国人民银行知悉这些活动,其实施货币政策并监管着中国大陆的金融机构。证券监管者也在关注着。在中国,由于实现现代市场经济会出现各种利益冲突,同时还要维持经济可控,因此金融改革通常会滞后。这对中国很多经济领域而言都是一种挑战,不仅仅针对银行业。

Chinese banks are now among the most profitable in the world, and the government certainly wants to keep it that way in light of the banks' position as the home of the country's financial structure. If we look closely at shadow financing that includes various types of wealth-management products such as trusts, mutual funds and other instruments, some critics say these are in fact bank loans in disguise where the banks take the greatest part of the implied risk but use insurance companies, brokers and trust companies as the middlemen. So in effect, the banks are intermediating the shadow-bank products. For example, a wealth-management product may be based on a pool of underlying assets that could be a group of loans, including in risky industries such as mining, property and even local government infrastructure projects. The potential problem with these is that they are not standard to credit assets that might be traded on the interbank or stock exchange markets. They can include bankers' acceptance bills, letters of credit and accounts receivable.

目前中国的银行是世界上最赚钱的银行之一,而且鉴于银行处于该国金融结构的核心地位,政府必然希望这种趋势能够维持。如果我们仔细观察影子融资,包括信托、共同基金和其他工具等各种类型的理财产品,就会发现事实正如部分批判者所言,这些产品都是伪装的银行贷款,银行在其中承担最大的隐含风险,但以保险公司、经纪商和信托公司作为中间商。因此,事实上银行是影子银行产品的中间媒介。例如,一个理财产品可基于一揽子标的资产,有可能是一组贷款,包括高风险行业,如矿业、房地产乃至地方政府基建项目。这些资产存在的潜在问题是其并非标准的信贷资产,不能在银行间市场或证券交易所交易。其可包括银行承兑汇票、信用证和应收账款。

It's important to note that the G20's Financial Stability Board 2015 Global Shadow Banking Monitor estimated that China's shadow financing was about 26% of GDP in 2014, which was much lower than the 59% average for 26 other major countries.2 Therefore, we might say that China is somewhat behind the other major countries in terms of developing a non-bank financial system. Of course its definition of shadow financing may be different for China, but in any case, it doesn't seem as if this activity in China is way off the norm.

值得注意的是,G20金融稳定委员会《2015年全球影子银行监控报告》估计,中国的影子融资约占二零一四年国内生产总值的26%,远低于其他26个主要国家59%的平均水平。2因此,可以说中国的非银行金融系统发展相较其他主要国家有所落后。当然,影子融资的定义对中国来说可能有所不同,但无论如何,中国的影子融资看起来并未与标准的影子融资相差太多。

Probably the most interesting and major financial development in China has been the growth of trusts. Banks were allowed to have their wealth-management products invest in trust plans, and these trusts have funded government infrastructure and real estate projects. Although there is no legal guarantee for the trust investors, there is a perception that the bank in fact guarantees it. This thinking is augmented by the fact that most of these trust companies are owned not only by banks but also by large state-owned enterprises and local governments. These trusts have become a major method for banks to invest in equities, listed assets such as loans and the money market. Therefore, they provide a method for banks to offer finance to higher-risk sectors that normally would be restricted in some way by regulators.

也许,中国最引人注意和最主要的金融发展是信托的发展。银行已获准其理财产品投资于信托计划,而且这些信托为政府基建和房地产项目提供了资金。虽然信托投资者并未得到法律保障,但大家默认银行实际上会为信托担保。另外,大部分信托公司不仅由银行持有,也由大型国有企业和地方政府持有,该事实进一步巩固了上述心照不宣的观点。这些信托已成为银行投资股票、上市资产(例如贷款)和货币市场的一个主要途径。因此,银行可通过信托为风险较高的行业(通常会受到监管机构的某些限制)提供资金。

At the end of the day, we believe the risks in China's financial sector are actually quite similar to what we find in other parts of the world. There is no question that many of the wealth-management products were exceedingly successful and provided excellent returns to investors. When that happens, there is often a tendency for the market to ignore the risks, and people pile into the products at even a greater rate. International organizations such as the International Monetary Fund have warned about the risk of corporate debt in China and its rapid growth. However, although the corporate sector may be sitting on high debt levels, the leverage in the government and household sectors is still rather low compared with some other developed countries. For example, China's household debt-to-GDP ratio was just over 40% last year, while the same reading in the United States was at about 80%, down from nearly 100% in 2008.3

最后,我们认为,中国金融行业的风险实际上与全球其他地区存在的风险十分相似。毫无疑问,很多理财产品已获得极大的成功,而且为投资者带来极佳的回报。当这种情况发生时,市场往往会忽视风险,人们会更快速地涌向这些产品。国际货币基金组织等国际机构已就中国的企业债务风险及其快速增长提出警告。然而,尽管企业部门可能债台高筑,但政府和家庭部门的杠杆与某些发达国家相比依然很低。例如,去年中国家庭债务占国内生产总值比率仅高于40%,而美国的同期数据则从二零零八年的约100%下降至约80%。3

Given the popularity of non-traditional lending vehicles with the public, it seems unlikely China's government would allow major defaults. Remember, while China continues to open its economy, it's still a controlled one. One might say the burden of risk sits with the government and the government is quite aware of this. That said, shadow financing sits in contrast to a system which overwhelmingly consists of bank loans funded by stable deposits; shadow financing in general involves more complex intermediation and funding structure, and generally requires the government to do more work to monitor the situation. In the event of a liquidity problem in the system, it may be more difficult for the government to stabilize the funding condition so as to prevent such to develop into systemic crisis. There are signs regulators are carefully examining the more egregious instances of financial product sales and abuses. At the end of 2016, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission announced measures against life insurers' aggressive and inappropriate market practices; insurance companies were restricted from filing for new products and selling universal insurance products for three months. Many insurers were warned about their sales of high-cash-value universal products, while others were prohibited from further sales of online insurance business because of misleading sales pitches.

鉴于非传统贷款工具大受公众青睐,中国政府看似不太可能会允许重大违约发生。需谨记,虽然中国经济日渐开放,但其依然受到控制。有人可能会说,政府担负着风险,并对此了如指掌。话虽如此,但影子融资与完全由稳定的存款提供资金的银行贷款的构成系统相反;影子融资一般包含更加复杂的中介和资金结构,通常需要政府加大力度对其现状进行监控。如果该系统出现流动性问题,政府会更难以稳定融资环境,以阻止其发展为系统性危机。有迹象显示,监管部门正仔细地审查较为异常的金融产品销售和滥用情况。二零一六年年底,中国保监会针对寿险公司激进和不适当的市场行为宣布多项措施;保险公司在三个月内禁止申报新产品和销售万能保险产品。很多保险公司因销售高现金价值的万能产品而被警告,其他保险公司则因销售宣传带有误导性而被禁止进一步开展线上保险业务。

China's Consumer Boom

中国的消费行业蒸蒸日上

I wouldn't necessarily say the record of banking regulation and banking behavior in other parts the world is something to be praised. However, the bottom line is that due diligence is required no matter where you invest. While the year ahead is certain to bring challenges, we remain optimistic about investing in China and the many opportunities we see in various sectors of the economy. The growth in financial services is just one area representing the boom in consumer-oriented products and services we expect to continue in China. For example, we view the automobile market favorably as penetration rates remain quite low versus developed markets. In addition, there has been a lot of technological change in the industry, with greater focus on efficiency, lower emissions and a shift towards electric vehicles. Another area we are focusing on is entertainment. We think gaming has good potential; Macau's casinos, for example, have attracted Chinese tourists. Similarly, we see a rapid growth of multiplexes and movie theaters in China and emerging markets in general, along with other types of entertainment venues.

我并不是说全球其他地区的银行监管和银行行为记录值得称赞。但无论投资于哪个地方,最根本的是要进行严谨的调查。虽然新的一年肯定要面临各种挑战,但我们仍对投资于中国以及我们在该经济体的各个行业发现的众多机会感到乐观。预计中国的消费者导向型产品和服务将会继续繁荣发展,而金融服务的增长仅仅是其中一个领域。例如,我们因其汽车保有量远低于发达市场而看好汽车市场。另外,该行业已发生数不胜数的技术变革,更加注重效能、低排放和快速转向电动汽车。我们关注的另一个领域是娱乐。我们认为博彩业极具潜力;例如,澳门的赌场已吸引了很多中国游客。此外,总体而言,中国和新兴市场的多功能影城和电影院以及其他类型的娱乐场所都在快速发展。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

富兰克林邓普顿投资(FTI)可能使用了来自第三方的数据来准备这份材料,FTI并没有独立核实、验证或审核这些数据。对于因使用这些资料而产生的任何损失, FTI概不承担任何责任,依赖评论观点和分析材料,由用户自行决定。产品、服务和信息可能不会在所有司法管辖区提供,由FTI附属公司及/或其当地的法律和法规许可的分销商提供。关于产品和服务在您的司法管辖范围是否提供,请咨询您的专业顾问获取更多信息。

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What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: Moody's Investors Service, Global Credit Research, October 2016.

1.资料来源:穆迪投资者服务《全球信用研究》(Global Credit Research),二零一六年十月。

2. Source: Financial Stability Board, Global Shadow Banking Monitor Report 2015.

2. 资料来源:金融稳定委员会《2015年全球影子银行监控报告》。

3. Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

3. 资料来源:彭博资讯,圣路易斯联邦储备银行。

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