新兴市场的演变
An Emerging-Market Evolution
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2019-12-21 09:14
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The way investors think about emerging markets has been evolving—along with the markets themselves. One thing we at Templeton Emerging Markets Group emphasize is that one can't consider emerging markets as one asset class; the opportunities are very differentiated between regions, countries and markets, with different fundamentals shaping them. Here, I've invited Stephen Dover, managing director and chief investment officer of Templeton Emerging Markets Group and Franklin Local Asset Management, to share his view of how emerging markets have changed over time, how he thinks investors should think about them, and where he sees potential opportunities ahead.

投资者对新兴市场的思考方式已经随着市场自身的发展而变化。邓普顿新兴市场团队强调,人们不能将新兴市场简单地归为同一资产类别;不同的地区、国家和市场的基本面不尽相同,投资机会也截然不同。在这里,我邀请了邓普顿新兴市场团队和富兰克林本地资产管理的董事总经理兼首席投资官斯蒂芬·多佛(Stephen H.Dover),与我们分享他对新兴市场过去的变化和未来潜在的机遇的看法,并对投资者应该如何看待该市场提出了建议。

This post is also available in: Chinese (Simplified), French, German, Italian, Spanish

本帖还有中文(简体)、法文、德文、意大利文、西班牙文版

I think emerging markets are appropriately named—they are indeed emerging and have changed over time. With these changes, I believe the way people both think about and invest in the asset class also should evolve.

我认为新兴市场这一名称起得恰到好处,它们确实正冉冉升起,和过去相比大有不同。基于这些变化,我认为人们对于这一资产类别的思考和投资方式也应该与时俱进。

One example of the evolution we have seen is in regard to market capitalization (market cap). In 1988, when the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was first launched, just two of the 10 countries in the index—Malaysia and Brazil—represented more than half of the index's market cap.1 At that time, the entire market cap of the index was about US$35 billion, representing less than 1% of the world's equity-market capitalization. 2

在我们所看到的变化中,市值就是其中一个例子。1988年,当MSCI新兴市场指数首次被推出时,只涵盖了10个国家,而其中的马来西亚和巴西两个国家的市值就占了该指数市值的一半以上。[1]当时,该指数的市值约为350亿美元,仅占全球股票市值的不到1%。[2]

If we fast-forward to 2016, there were 23 countries in the index, and the market cap had grown to US$4 trillion, representing about 10% of world market capitalization.3 The mix of countries in the index has also evolved over time. In terms of country weights, today, India represents 8% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and China—which wasn't represented at all in 1998—is nearly 27% of the index today. Meanwhile, Brazil's representation is much less today, at only 8%.4

2016年,该指数已经囊括了23个国家,市值也增长到4万亿美元,约占全球股票市值的10%。[3]在该指数中,国家的数量和权重也在随着时间的推移不断地变化。就国家层面而言,目前印度在MSCI新兴市场指数中占比8%,而在1998年还完全没有被纳入其中的中国,目前的权重已经接近27%。同时,巴西的权重已大幅缩水至8%。[4]

What constitutes an emerging market has also changed significantly over time, but the waters in emerging markets have not always been very clear.

随着时间的推移,新兴市场的构成也发生了巨大变化,但新兴市场的界线划分却仍未完全明了。

South Korea has been the subject of some debate in this regard. MSCI includes South Korea in the emerging-markets category, while another index provider, the FTSE Russell, considers it a developed market. This issue is quite important, as which countries are in which category and at what percentage in the indexes help determine how many investors position their portfolios. We have seen countries shift in and out of emerging-market status over time. For example, in 2013, MSCI reclassified Greece from developed to emerging-market status, and in 2016, MSCI announced Pakistan will be reclassified this year as an emerging market from frontier status.5

例如,关于韩国的归属一直存在争议。MSCI将韩国纳入了新兴市场类别,而另一家指数编制机构富时罗素(FTSE Russell),则认为它属于发达市场。这个问题非常重要,因为一个国家类别的划分及其在指数中的权重会间接决定投资者资产的配置。我们看到,新兴市场类别的构成一直在不断发生着变化。例如,MSCI于2013年将希腊由发达国家归类为新兴市场;于2016年宣布同年将巴基斯坦的类别从前沿市场调整为新兴市场。[5]

It really boils down to how one defines “emerging market,” and there is some disagreement about exactly what the criteria should be. MSCI and FTSE have their own criteria for inclusion in a particular index, including explicit requirements for market size and liquidity, a country's openness to foreign ownership, foreign exchange and other aspects.

实际上,这一问题还应归结为对“新兴市场”的定义。关于究竟应当采取什么标准进行分类,目前还存在一些分歧。MSCI和富时有各自的指数纳入标准,包括市场规模、流动性,对外资所有权和外汇以及其他方面的开放程度。

If you were to follow the World Bank's standards as to which countries are classified as “high-income” to determine developed-market status, you'd wind up with a very different set of constituents than the index providers—for example, Qatar's per-capita income ranks above that of Australia, Denmark and the United States.6

如果按照世界银行的标准,以“高收入”来确定哪些国家属于发达国家之列,你会得出一个与指数编制机构非常不同的结果。例如,卡塔尔的人均收入排名高于澳大利亚、丹麦和美国。[6]

That said, we at Templeton Emerging Markets Group are active managers and not confined to a particular benchmark classification or index weighting when we make our investment decisions. We employ a bottom-up approach and focus on the fundamentals we see in individual companies. We may even invest in a company that is located in a country considered to be developed—if the bulk of its profits come from emerging markets.

尽管如此,邓普顿新兴市场团队作为主动性投资管理人,在做投资决策时,并不局限于某个特定的基准分类或者指数权重。我们采用的是自下而上的方法,专注于各家公司的基本面。我们甚至可以投资一家位于发达国家的公司,只要它的大部分利润来自新兴市场。

Emerging Markets—Taking a Bigger Piece of the World's Pie

新兴市场——在全球市场中份额越来越大

While emerging markets currently represent at least 10% of the world's stock-market capitalization (based on MSCI indexes), in our various discussions with investors, we have found most have a smaller percentage of their portfolios invested in emerging markets. And worth noting, the 10% figure represents the traditional MSCI indexes—other measures of emerging-market capitalization show emerging markets more broadly represent an even higher percentage.

尽管目前新兴市场占全球股票市值10%以上(基于MSCI指数),但在与投资者的各种讨论中,我们发现他们大部分对新兴市场的资金配比都较少。值得注意的是, 10%这一数字仅代表传统的MSCI指数,新兴市场资本情况的其他衡量指标表明,新兴市场的影响更广泛,占比更高。

We also have found that even though the world has become much more globalized, many investors still exhibit a “home-country bias,” investing solely within their own borders even if markets elsewhere look more promising. We see room for growth in the emerging-markets realm—and a great potential opportunity for diversification that many investors aren't even considering. We also see many potential opportunities within frontier-market countries, many of which aren't even included in global indexes. These markets represent a smaller subset of emerging markets that are even less developed, and include most countries on the African continent.

我们还发现,即使世界变得更加全球化、其他市场看起来更有前途,许多投资者仍然表现出“本土性偏向”,仅投资自己的国家。我们看到,新兴市场增长空间巨大,蕴藏了大量多元化的投资机会,而许多投资者尚未觉察这一点。同样地,前沿市场也有许多潜在机会,其中许多国家还没有纳入到全球指数中。这些市场也是新兴市场的一部分,相对欠发达,包括非洲大陆大多数国家。

Looking at other measures, we can see just how important emerging markets are to the global economy. Today, emerging markets represent nearly 50% of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) measured in nominal terms (nearly 60% when using purchasing-power parity) and account for nearly 80% of global GDP growth.7

放眼其他衡量指标,我们可以看到新兴市场对全球经济的重要性。如今,新兴市场的名义国内生产总值(GDP)已经占全球近50%(如果使用购买力平价衡量指标,这一数字接近60%),在全球GDP增幅中贡献近80%。[7]

Changing Economies

变化中的经济

Emerging markets have also undergone structural changes. Over the past three decades, emerging markets largely achieved their phenomenal growth through exports—and many people have associated these markets with commodities. While many emerging-market countries still rely on exports, these economies are radically changing. As recently as 2008, commodities and materials stocks constituted 50% of the components of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Today, that category represents about 15% of the stocks in the index. To us, what's really exciting about this shift is that it opens up many more investment opportunities that are focused on consumption and services.

新兴市场也经历了结构性变化。在过去的三十年里,新兴市场主要通过出口实现了惊人的增长,许多人将这些市场与大宗商品划上了等号。虽然许多新兴市场国家目前仍依赖出口,但这些经济体正在发生着翻天覆地的改变。在过去不久的2008年,大宗商品和原材料股在MSCI新兴市场指数的成分构成中还占到50%的比重。而今天,这一类别的股票在该指数中仅占约15%。对我们来说,这种转变真正令人兴奋的是,它带来了更多专注于消费、服务类的投资机会。

Many investors may not realize that some very sophisticated information technology companies are based in emerging markets. In 2008, information technology (IT) companies represented about 7% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and today, the sector represents 24% of the index—in fact, the top four constituents by weight are IT companies. Consumer/consumption-oriented stocks represented 7% of the index in 2008; today their weighting is 17%. So it is really not accurate to say emerging markets are pure commodity plays anymore, even though many people still consider them to be driven by the whims of commodity prices.

许多投资者可能还没有意识到,一些非常先进的信息技术(IT)公司目前都设在新兴市场。2008年,信息技术公司的股票在MSCI新兴市场指数中的比重只有约7%,而今天,该类别已经占到了24%,事实上,按照权重计算,排名前四的成分股都是IT公司。2008年,消费或消费主导型股票在该指数中只占7%;今天它们的权重已经达到17%。因此,虽然很多人仍认为新兴市场经济主要是受商品价格波动影响,但是现在真的无法将它们准确归类为纯粹的商品类经济体了。

The weakness we have seen in many emerging-market currencies is something we think also strengthens our investment case. The US dollar is at a 15-year high and some predict it could strengthen even more as the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to raise interest rates as inflation picks up. In our view, emerging-market currencies have been quite weak—in some cases, unjustifiably so. We see this as supportive. Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Indonesia and Malaysia are all examples of countries with currencies trading at what could be considered distressed levels—priced as if those economies are in great crisis. The fundamentals tell a different story. We believe the fundamentals in these countries look much better than their currency prices are reflecting.

我们看到,许多新兴市场货币处于弱势,这也正是支持我们投资决策的因素之一。目前美元正处于15年来的高位,一些人预计美元还会继续走强,随着通胀回升,美联储预计将继续加息。在我们看来,新兴市场货币已经相当疲弱,有些国家的货币简直弱的毫无道理。我们将此视为利好因素。墨西哥、阿根廷、哥伦比亚、印度尼西亚和马来西亚等国的货币价格处于极其疲弱水平,从货币表现来看,这些经济体似乎正陷于严重危机之中。但基本面给出了不同的说明。我们认为这些国家的基本面看起来比它们的货币价格所反映的要好得多。

Additionally, we believe inflation appears poised to drop in many emerging-market countries, including Brazil, Russia, Colombia and Nigeria, and this allows their central banks to pursue more accommodative monetary policy, which could stimulate local equity markets.

此外,我们相信许多新兴市场国家的通胀率似乎将降低,包括俄罗斯,哥伦比亚,巴西和尼日利亚,这使得它们的中央银行可以实施更为宽松的货币政策,可能会刺激当地股市走强。

More Reasons Why We're Optimistic

我们有更多理由保持乐观

Despite some uncertainties, we see opportunity in emerging markets in 2017 and are optimistic many investors will see value in making greater allocations to them. GDP growth is expected to outpace that of developed markets, with the International Monetary Fund projecting growth of 4.5% in emerging and developing economies versus 1.9% in developed markets this year.8 We see evidence that earnings growth in emerging markets could likely be higher than in developed markets, too. Emerging markets have been lagging in regard to earnings growth, but 2016 marked the first time in more than five years they outperformed developed markets. We think there's still quite a bit of room for emerging markets to further catch-up.

尽管有一些不确定性,但是我们认为2017年新兴市场存在机会,并乐观地相信许多投资者将发现加大新兴市场投资的价值所在。新兴市场的GDP增长预计高于发达市场,国际货币基金组织预测新兴和发展中经济体今年的经济增长率为4.5%,而发达市场的经济增长率仅为1.9%。[8] 我们也看到有证据表明,新兴市场的盈利增长可能会高于发达市场。新兴市场在利润增长方面一直是比较落后的,但2016年的增长幅度五年来首次超过了发达市场。我们认为新兴市场仍有很大的持续增长空间。

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And finally, the United States is near full employment and President Donald Trump's administration has proposed some policies that appear stimulative for economic growth, including potential tax cuts and fiscal spending. History has shown us that in general, a strong US economy is positive for emerging markets. Even if we do see some reduction in trade on a marginal level, we think an expansion in the global economy is likely to help emerging markets. And, as noted, emerging markets that are more domestically driven should be more insulated against global shocks in other markets.

此外,美国目前正接近充分就业,而且特朗普总统的政府提出了一些政策以促进经济增长,可能削减税收和财政支出。历史告诉我们,总体而言,强劲的美国经济对新兴市场来说是有利的。即使我们确实看到贸易水平有所下降,我们认为全球经济仍在扩张中,有助于新兴市场的发展。而且,正如此前所指,新兴市场经济目前更多受到国内消费的推动,因此对于其他市场所引发的全球性冲击,应当具有更大的免疫力。

Emerging markets are in fact, emerging, and we see many opportunities ahead in 2017.

新兴市场实际上还在发展之中,我们将会在2017年看到很多机会。

If you'd like to hear more of the misconceptions about emerging markets, and opportunities our team sees, I encourage you to check out our team's new emerging-markets podcast.

如果您想了解更多我们团队关于新兴市场的浅薄见解以及对未来机遇的看法,我建议您去看看我们团队最新的新兴市场播客。

CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

Comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.

评论、意见及分析仅供参考之用,不应被视为个人的投资建议或推荐投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的建议。由于市场和经济状况可能出现急剧变化,评论、意见和分析都以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文材料不是针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或策略的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton Investments.

本文只供一般性参考,不应被视为个人投资建议,或推荐投资者购买、出售、持有任何证券及采纳任何投资策略的建议或招揽,不构成法律或税务咨询。本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

The opinions are intended solely to provide insight into how securities are analyzed. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. This is intended to provide insight into the portfolio selection and research process. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an offer for any particular security. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

这些意见仅仅是为人们提供有关证券的分析方法参考。本文所提供的信息并非针对任何特定证券、策略或投资产品的推荐或个人投资建议,富兰克林邓普顿管理团队不对任何有关投资组合的交易意图做出指示本博文不是针对任何行业、证券或投资的所有重大事实的全面分析,不作投资建议参考。于此提供的某些评论旨在提供对投资组合选择和研究过程的的见解。本文所载之资料属可靠的公开来源,但未经独立验证且并不保证其完整性和准确性。这些意见不得作为投资建议或任何特定证券的要约。过往表现不能预示或保证其未来表现。

The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market.

评论、意见及分析均为投资经理的个人观点,并以公布日期当日为准,若有更改恕不另行通知。本文提供的信息不是针对任何国家、地区或市场的所有重大事实的全面分析。

Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own professional adviser or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

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CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Copyright © [2019]  。富兰克林邓普顿投资。版权所有。

What Are the Risks?

有何风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。外国证券投资涉及特别风险,包括汇率波动、经济不稳定和政治发展。在新兴市场(包括前沿市场)国家的投资涉及相同因素的较高风险,以及与这些市场的规模较小、流动性较低、并缺乏既定的法律、政治、商业和社会的框架以支持证券市场的相关风险。因为前沿市场的这些框架往往更欠发达,以及各种因素,包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制,潜在的与新兴市场相关的风险在前沿市场尤为突出。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

To get insights from Franklin Templeton delivered to your inbox, subscribe to the Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets blog.

有意从富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)的邮件中了解更多信息,请订阅“新兴市场的投资冒险”(Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets)博客。

For timely investing tidbits, follow us on Twitter @FTI_Emerging and on LinkedIn.

有意及时投资的话,请在推特上关注 @FTI_emerging和LinkedIn。

The technology industry can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants as well as general economic conditions. The technology sector has historically been volatile due to the rapid pace of product change and development within the sector.

现有技术过时、产品周期短、价格和利润下降、市场新进入者带来的竞争以及一般的经济条件都可能对技术产业产生重大影响。由于科技产品更新换代周期较短,该行业一直以来面临着巨大/波动。

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1. Source: MSCI. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. See www.franklintempletondataservices.com for additional data provider information.

[1] 资料来源:MSCI。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。指数也不包含任何费用、支出或销售费用。欲获得更多数据提供者的资料,敬请浏览www.franklintempletondataservices.com

2. Source: MSCI. World Market Cap represented by the MSCI ACWI Index, a global equity index consisting of developed and emerging market countries. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges, See www.franklintempletondatasources.com for additional data provider information.

[2] 资料来源:MSCI。全球市值以MSCI所有国家世界市场指数为代表,这一全球股票指数涵盖发达国家和新兴市场国家。指数未经管理,也不能直接投资于指数。它们不包含费用,支出或销售费用,欲获得更多数据提供者的资料,敬请浏览 www.franklintempletondatasources.com

3. Ibid.

[3] 出处同上。

4. Ibid. Data as of January 2017.

[4] 出处同上。相关数据截止2017年1月。

5. Source: MSCI Annual Reclassification Review.

[5] 资料来源:MSCI指数年度评估报告(MSCI Annual Reclassification Review)。

6. Source: World Bank, based on estimates of gross national income (GNI) per capita, data as of July 2015. High-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of US$12,736 or more.

[6] 资料来源:世界银行的数据基于人均国民总收入(Gross National Income, GNI)截至2015年7月的预估数。高收入经济体的标准是人均国民总收入达到12,736美元或以上。

7. Source: World Bank, International Monetary Fund, figures based on 2015 data.

[7] 资料来源:世界银行,国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund),数字基于2015年数据。

8. Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, January 2017 update. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

[8] 资料来源:国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望》,2017年1月更新版。无法保证任何估计、预测或预计将会得到实现。

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